Initial Game Week Thoughts: #2 Michigan vs. #3 Georgia - CFP Semifinal

So I watched a bunch of Georgia's games, and well... They're a good team. 

They have some players who are legit pro's, NFL early round draft types. 

They're not a perfect team, but they got players.  They got guys who are going to be matchup nightmares. 

We can play with them toe to toe.  But we can't play sloppy, or have a lot of turnovers.  If we play like we did against MSU, we'll lose by several TD's.  If we play like we did against OSU, we should win comfortably. 

Stetson Bennet brings that BS run game mobile QB stuff that we've had trouble with since Donovan McNabb.  Not the best thrower, and can be pressured into mistakes.  But he is more accurate on deep and intermediate balls than I was led to believe.  He's good at deep crossing routes and intermediate wheel routes. 

Brock Bowers, #19 legit looks better than that baby gronk guy at ND.  They've got a Scotty Miller type in #84, McClunkey or whatever his name is.  #4 is an NFL running back that can do everything.  #3 is like their version of Hasan.  Their O-line is huge. 

#5 is a decent WR who has speed and does good comeback and out routes. 

But yeah, the headline is this defense.  The front seven is scary.  Everyone talks about #99 Davis, but number 88 and 95 are also really good.  #17 Dean is a shield type guy on FFFF.  The other LB's are solid and can take on lead blocks.  I think we're going to have to really push the edges and try to break contain.  I hope we've got a good RPS gameplan. 

I think the game will turn on whether we can RPS into some good deep plays or if Cade is just money on hitting people between the press man and roaming safeties.  We might be able to tempo some good run plays, if Blake is healthy, that'll help. 

When their Offense is on 3rd or 4th and short, whelp... get ready to play another set of downs. If Aiden and Ojabo can get pressure on a consistent basis, we might be able to hold them, but their run game is very efficient on early downs.  

This is a game that will be very close, so the smallest edge in playcalling or one-off plays could decide it.  I'm excited, hopefully they'll have covid problems.  I don't think we're a 7 point dog, maybe a 3 point dog.  If we play well, we can win. 

This game will be won by Edwards and All. It is going to be our passing games ability to get guys open creatively against their linebackers (flat, pop pass, wheel routes) that will move the chains and score the points. I would use those two to abuse the linebackers and make them have to think about the passing game, to then open up the rest of the playbook. 

Magic Eight Ball still saying we're going to win, and I check every few days. It said the same for the Ohio State and Iowa games. If it's right, I will never doubt the Magic Eight Ball again. 

I'm curious to hear covid news this week. No way either team makes to Friday without some hits. Hopefully no one too important ?

Rumor has it that the COVID outbreak on the Georgia team is much worse than reported. I'm not sure it will be under control by next Thursday. Do we get a forfeit win or do we play the next team up, ND?

We were a great running team to begin the year

We learned not to fall asleep and get full of ourselves against Rutgers 

We developed a passing game vs. Wisconsin

We learned how to come from behind in adversity and get a gritty road win against Nebraska 

We learned that we can’t let tempo beat us against MSU,  it that our passing game can take over a game as well

We learned to use TE’s in red zone and how to use Haskins as a bell cow back against IU

Our offensive line regained its composure in the second half of PSU, and we learned how to win when all hope looked lost and all momentum had been sucked away. We learned we can contain an elite recover.  We also learned Eric All is fast. 
 

We added a serious wrinkle against Maryland with the revelation of Donovan  Edwards at receiver. 
 

We stepped into championship territory vs OSU. We learned our defense can contain multiple elite receivers by keeping not allowing any big plays. We learned running the ball still works. We learned we were great. 
 

We solidified elite status vs Iowa. 

I'm expecting a great game, though you never know how the extended layoff will affect teams. Our ability to run the ball is the biggest key to the game: Strength vs. strength. Need to keep Davis moving laterally to wear him out, and run towards Dean so you can block him at the point of attack. He's too fast and will chase you down if you try running away from him.

Bowers running down the seam scares me, and Pickens in the red zone will be a tough cover.

But overall I'm excited. I think if we get a quick lead, it'll get in Georgia's heads a bit. I certainly like our chances in any close game late because of our excellent special teams.

I can envision a pretty wide range of outcomes, but gun to my head, I'll say 27-21 Michigan.

If we can run the ball moderately well and keep them under 30 points I like our chances.  
 

I don’t think we can get into a shootout with them, not with their defense.

going to be a tight game I think...7-10 points.

On offense, Michigan needs to test the edges of the Georgia defense. H2 is great, but has a very tough DL to run on...

Counters and misdirection plays to counter Georgia's speed at LB. Would not be surprised at the continuation of trick plays. Edwards will play a big role imo...kid is going to get at least one wheel route for a big gain. I think Michigan needs a few back shoulder throws in the books if Georgia DBs are consistently in phase. Definitely see Cade doing a few RPS keepers...things like what Nebraska and Wisconsin did, like a pop pass, sucking the LBers to the line and then throwing over the top seem to be a way of disrupting Georgia's excellent LBs...gotta use their speed against them with misdirection plays at least few times.

Georgia's TEs are a big weapon if they elect to use them... Iowa's TEs were very strong in the first half of the B1G championship game, so I would not be shocked to see their TEs have early success.

Not sure if Michigan will win, but it is a winnable game. All you can ask for in a National Semi Final...a puncher's chance just like OSU

Keys to victory: Stop Georgia from establishing their potent ground game and harass Bennet on all drop backs.  Manufacture chunk plays and get just enough from the run game to keep the chains moving.  3-4 yds per carry may be enough if they get the usual amount of explosive plays.

My concerns would be the same on both sides of the ball.  If Georgia is able run effectively and/or stop M from running effectively, it will be very difficult for Michigan to win.  But really as a fan I have no concerns, I'm excited to see the spectacle play out and hoping like heck we win while knowing we have the B1G championship in the bag.

I continue to think the -7.5 line is ridiculous. We'll see I guess.

Keys to victory? Some explosive plays. We’ve done it all year with big plays. Bama hit them with some explosive shots and quick hitting big plays. 

What concerns me most about their offense? The use of their tight end. The dude is lightening quick and we struggled covering Iowa’s tight ends down the middle of the field. Giving up big plays to them. The game favors Michigan more if they don’t hit the big plays. 

What concerns me most about their defense? Not much really. We have a played against stout defenses and defenses that will try to take away the run game. Hopefully they can’t control our run game with their front and need the extra help. That opens up a lot for is if they have to commit to helping with the run. They’ll try like many others to make Cade beat them. 
 

More nervous or excited? Definitely excited. I’m sure I will be nervous before the kickoff. We are playing with house money at this point. 
 

Offensive MVP? All/Corum/Edwards. This is because we will have to use them in the passing game and is them for big plays. 

Defensive MVP will be whoever is covering their tight end? Dax/Barrett/Ross?

Being healthy is my number one overall concern. We need all hands on deck. I think Georgia is beatable but I think it’s gonna come down to explosive plays and turnovers. I think Michigan wins 34-30

UM doesn't have any glaring weaknesses. They are kind of above average across the board but exceptional at DE, running back and special teams.

Georgia is similar no real weakness, Bama did pick apart their secondary but they're all skilled players.

Their D line and linebackers are exceptional along with the TE Bowers. He is as good as there is and will be a tough match-up for our linebackers and we may have to use a DB on him which could be problematic. He's tall, fast and tough to take down.

Where the Bulldogs do lack is at special teams. In a tight low scoring game and we're gaining 10  of real estate on each punt.  That could make a big difference.

As I mentioned their secondary is vulnerable, at least it was picked apart by Bama. .

Georgia's Oline is probably comparable to OSU's. They have done a good job of protecting Bennett but Bama got to him and we should too.

NcNamara is better than Bennett but not by a wide margin. Cade is a smart pocketing passer with great awareness, a Mac Jones type with a good arm but inconsistent mechanics. Bennett makes a lot more plays with his feet. He, like Cade is smaller, limited arm strength, has approximately the same completion percentage. He good for about 5 scrambles a game, but he's no Adrian Martinez. Stetson's completion percentage dips in 3rd downs. Cade stays consistent. So if Michigan can keep them in 3rd and long situations that bodes well.

Though we are a tun first team, there is a misconception Michigan is one dimensional. We might not have that premiere guy but they are all above average and deep. They have burners, like Wilson, and Henning and big guys like Johnson and Baldwin. They've made a lot of highlight reel catches. The backs all catch well too. Edwards in particular is runs a variety of routes and isn't just a check-down guy.

That said, we will run the ball. If Haskins carries 20 times that should mean he's gaining some yards. Iowa focused of Hassan but we beat them with other guys. I'm sure they'll have seen the Bama game. Jordan Davis was gassed. Do the same thing MSU did to US and bama did to them - run tempo. Keep  Davis on the field. It you run 3 plays on him he's gassed.

Tire them out. Then keep them guessing. UM runs complicated sets. Work the outside and the inside. They are not a big scoring team. If they get behind they could be in trouble. If we keep it close, they could be in trouble.  

I like our coaches and prep. I think they have more exploitable weakness. On D get pressure from our edges.  Bennett makes mistakes when hurried. 

On offense, If we can hold off their pass rush, Cade should be able to find some receivers. That could help the ground game.

Should be a fun one but I really like our chances. 20-17.

• Your keys to victory?

Excellent complementary football

• What concerns you most about Georgia’s offense?

They have plenty of 'dudes'

• What concerns you most about the Bulldogs defense?

The D-line

• Are you more nervous or excited?

Excited. If with play, literally, with 'Enthusiasm unknown to Mankind' like we have been, it's going to be a blast.

• Your offensive MVP of the game? Defensive? Special teams?

Offensive MVP: The O-line; Defensive MVP: Aiden; Special Teams MVP: Brad Robbins

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I believe the main key to this victory is how effective we are at using play action. All I've heard from anyone that has opined is that Georgia will stop the run. Gattis can use that defensive aggression to his advantage. 

I'm not trying to sound cocky, but if we don't give up big plays we should be able to make them have long drives and force them into mistakes or field goal situations. Their offense will generate some points, but unless aided by turnovers we should be able to keep their scoring in the high teens to low twenties. 

As far as Georgia's defense, I'm more scared of mental mistakes from our offense. If we stay with one turnover or less, we should be able to outpace Georgia. We should hit their aggressive defense with misdirection and screen plays to confuse them.

I'm super excited for this game. While bumping Bama up to 1 was bs. Making us have to beat Georgia to be able to play for the championship is prefect because we can continue to be the underdog and let that fuel this team to victory. 

I don't see Smart as being the coach that will be able to outcoach Harbaugh & co., I think he tells on his superior talent and tries to execute his gamelan (Hope I'm not wrong). 

tl;dr... I'm excited

Lock their defensive line on the field and use tempo to wear them out.  First half low score, second half blow out.

I heard that Georgia dropped more guys into coverage against Alabama to try to stop their passing game, and it obviously didn't work.  I'm wondering if they'll go back to trying to dialling up pressues and seeking dominate the line on D in this game.  I have faith in our o-line, but also think that quick passes to Edwards/well-blocked screens could be effective against an agressive defense.

On a different note, I'll be in Miami but haven't bought my ticket yet. Prices came down in the last week but seem to have stabilized so I'm probably going go to pull the trigger soon. I'd prefer to sit among Michigan fans over Bulldogs. I noticed in a post early this month that Michigan's allotment was described as being in 118-132, 222-223, 228-229, 318-333 -- all of which appear to be on the Georgia/north or east side.  I was wondering anyone knew if that was right, and/or more generally if the north and east sides (even if just outside those sections) were likely to be more Michigan friendly than the south/west.  I apologize in advance if this has been discussed to death in other posts.

If Michigan wins, how much you wanna bet that people say that Georgia would've won if their players that had been in COVID protocol/isolation had been able to practice?

I think we roll them.  They will be looking to get passes off quick.  Their TE Bowers should be a focus for us.  He is a beast.

My big concerns for Michigan is the near 4 week layoff and if any starters get COVID.

I hope practice down there goes very well this week for our guys.

Hail to the Victors!

Which officiating crew is calling the game? I want to blunt whatever outside SEC bias there is. Hopefully its a MAC crew or something.

I was watching Joel Klatt's latest video discussing the CFP matchups, and he talked about how Georgia likes to have only 7 men in the box, and that they can get away with that because of how good their run defenders are. When Michigan has struggled to run the ball this year, it seems to be because the other team is stacking the box with 8 or 9 players. I wonder if Georgia changes things up and stacks the box with 8 players and challenges McNamara to beat them with the pass... or if Georgia is somewhat arrogant and keeps with the 7 man box strategy, trusting their run defense to stop Michigan's run game. 

I try to keep from laughing out loud when Michigan fans want to pretend that the Wisconsin, Ped State or Iowa defenses are somehow a proxy for what we’ll see from the UGa run D.  
 

IMO our best hope is in a mistake free game from our QBs (not just turnovers — I mean downfield accuracy too). The UGa pass D really misses Adam Anderson.  We have to see our WRs make plays downfield for us to win. 

Win the game!