If Penn State Beats the Bucs…

Submitted by whidbeywolverine on October 22nd, 2022 at 1:38 AM

It’s unlikely, but not impossible that Penn State could beat OSU at home next week.  If this were to happen, then even if we lose to the Bucs we would win the tiebreaker if cumulative conference records of Iowa/Neb/Ill are better than Wisc/Iowa/NW and Pur/NW/Minn

Beat Ohio and none of this matters, but I like our chances in the 3 way tiebreaker!

Buy Bushwood

October 22nd, 2022 at 11:01 AM ^

Why would we want that?  Why wouldn't we want two 11-0 teams in Nov. with our shot at an enormous victory in Columbus?  The ramifications for the program's recruiting and national prestige are best served by a top 3 match-up of undefeated teams with everything on the line. What I don't want, is to be playing Illinois twice in 3 weeks.  So, go Purdue.  

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Frank Chuck

October 22nd, 2022 at 3:05 AM ^

I disagree with this. I've repeatedly learned that styles make fights.

Going into the PSU/UM game, I felt that Michigan was a bad matchup for Penn State. (I didn't expect us to bludgeon Penn State to the tune of 400+ rushing yards but I felt comfortable about our offense's balance against their defense.) 

That said, I think Penn State's defense in a vacuum is better suited for handling Ohio State's pass game than it was for handling our running game. PSU's 2 corners are elite and should be able to hold up against OSU's pass game. But I wonder about PSU's LBs against OSU's WRs...

Also, we exposed a number of things about PSU's run fits. If PSU makes some changes, I can envision Penn State giving Ohio State a heckuva challenge. 

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MadGatter

October 22nd, 2022 at 3:14 AM ^

Defensively I'm there with you. I can see the argument. 

But man how is their offense going to score? I'm not sold on the buckeye defense quite yet but I cant imagine Clifford lighting them up after what we just saw. 

Maybe they just get lucky a few times with home field advantage again a-la 2016

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1VaBlue1

October 22nd, 2022 at 8:16 AM ^

This is my thought - defensively, PSU matches up strength vs strength.  If they can hold OSU's offense to normal numbers, we'll see what new DC Knowles can do against big time play maker and a 5* RB.  Remember that PSU always plays pretty well in front of their white out crowd.

I don't think PSU can win, but I'd love to see them keep it competitive late into the 4th.

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jdraman

October 22nd, 2022 at 8:20 AM ^

I have a feeling that Penn State’s corners are not actually “elite” and will give up their fair share of yards and touchdowns, as well as an efficient passing day for Stroud. I buy that the PSU corners are good, but they didn’t look All-American-level to me in either the Michigan game or in any earlier games of PSU I watched.

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urbanachiever

October 22nd, 2022 at 9:29 AM ^

Yes, 100%. People fall for this kind of thing every year.

Look at the way PSU plays defense and the way OSU plays offense. It's strength (secondary play) vs strength (receiver play). Yes, OSU's run game looks improved, but they don't run nearly the same arsenal of sets that UM does on the ground. PSU might still have a pretty decent run defense when it's all said and done.

Add in the fact that it's a home game for PSU, and who knows, it could be a game.

I'd still probably pick OSU as something like a 17 point favorite, but it could be a competitive game

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Maizinator

October 22nd, 2022 at 2:37 AM ^

I would normally say anything is possible having the game at home.  However, PSU sure didn't look like a team that is capable of winning that game.  

The most recent FPI update I saw now has OSU at 83% win probability.   They are getting the noon start as well.

Penn State is praying for snow and for Stroud to catch the flu.  

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borninAnnArbor

October 22nd, 2022 at 11:01 AM ^

I was talking to an Ohio State friend of mine last year about the confluence of things that would need to go Michigan's way in order for Michigan to win.  When I turned the game on and saw it was snowing the "So you're saying there's a chance gif" immediately popped into my head.  

There is always a possibility, however slight.

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WolverineHistorian

October 22nd, 2022 at 9:50 AM ^

The 2016 game was very much a fluke.  But Penn State actually had no business losing to OSU in 2018.  Multiple boneheaded decisions by Franklin cost them that game.  

2016, 17 and 18 were surprisingly close games.  But the last three years, it's basically been PSU keeping close for a while before OSU eventually wins by double digits.  

Penn State is NOT beating OSU this year.  

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