History of Michigan Players in Rivals100
I went through data from Rivals to comprise a list of recruits that have committed to Michigan from their top 100 players. Below is the full list of 44 players. At bottom are some tables that lend context to the data.
NAME |
POSITION | STAR | NATL RANK | POS RANK | YEAR | STATE |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ryan Mallett | QB | ***** | 4 | 2 | 2007 | TX |
Prescott Burgess | DB | ***** | 6 | 1 | 2003 | OH |
Derrick Green (*) | RB | ***** | 8 | 1 | 2013 | VA |
Chad Henne | QB | ***** | 13 | 3 | 2004 | PA |
LaMarr Woodley | LB | ***** | 14 | 3 | 2003 | MI |
Ondre Pipkins | DT | ***** | 14 | 3 | 2012 | MO |
Brandon Graham | LB | ***** | 15 | 2 | 2006 | MI |
Kevin Grady | RB | ***** | 22 | 4 | 2005 | MI |
Kyle Kalis | OL | ***** | 22 | 4 | 2012 | OH |
Donovan Warren | DB | ***** | 25 | 3 | 2007 | CA |
Stephen Schilling | OL | ***** | 26 | 2 | 2006 | WA |
Will Campbell | DT | ***** | 26 | 5 | 2009 | MI |
Gabe Watson | DT | ***** | 33 | 3 | 2002 | MI |
Justin Turner | DB | **** | 35 | 3 | 2009 | OH |
Marques Slocum | OL | **** | 37 | 1 | 2005 | PA |
Shawn Crable | DE | **** | 39 | 2 | 2003 | OH |
Carlos Brown | RB | **** | 39 | 5 | 2006 | GA |
Tim Jamison | DE | **** | 40 | 5 | 2004 | IL |
Darryl Stonum | WR | **** | 41 | 7 | 2008 | TX |
Boubacar Cissoko | DB | **** | 44 | 4 | 2008 | MI |
Jonas Mouton | DB | **** | 45 | 3 | 2006 | CA |
Mario Manningham | WR | **** | 45 | 5 | 2005 | OH |
Antonio Bass | ATH | **** | 49 | 5 | 2005 | MI |
Dann O'Neill | OL | **** | 49 | 10 | 2008 | MI |
Justin Boren | OL | **** | 64 | 1 | 2006 | OH |
Henry Poggi (*) | DT | **** | 70 | 5 | 2013 | MD |
Clayton Richard | QB | **** | 71 | 4 | 2003 | IN |
Erik Magnuson | OL | **** | 78 | 10 | 2012 | CA |
Alex Mitchell | OL | **** | 80 | 3 | 2004 | MI |
Shane Morris (*) | QB | **** | 81 | 4 | 2013 | MI |
Patrick Kugler | OL | **** | 82 | 6 | 2013 | PA |
Cory Zirbel | OL | **** | 83 | 10 | 2005 | KY |
Justice Hayes | RB | **** | 85 | 3 | 2011 | MI |
Jim Presley | LB | **** | 89 | 2 | 2003 | MI |
Adam Patterson | DT | **** | 91 | 7 | 2006 | SC |
Toney Clemons | WR | **** | 91 | 12 | 2007 | PA |
Greg Mathews | WR | **** | 93 | 8 | 2006 | FL |
Matt Gutierrez | QB | **** | 96 | 5 | 2002 | CA |
Ryan Mundy | DB | **** | 96 | 6 | 2003 | PA |
Terrance Taylor | DT | **** | 96 | 8 | 2005 | MI |
Brett Gallimore | OL | **** | 96 | 10 | 2004 | MO |
James McKinney | DT | **** | 98 | 9 | 2005 | KY |
Doug Dutch | WR | **** | 98 | 10 | 2004 | DC |
Cullen Christian | DB | **** | 99 | 8 | 2010 | PA |
* LOI yet to be signed
__________________________________________________________
POSITION | RECRUITS |
---|---|
OL | 10 |
DB | 7 |
DT | 7 |
QB | 5 |
WR | 5 |
RB | 4 |
LB | 3 |
DE | 2 |
ATH | 1 |
TOTAL | 44 |
POSITION | HIGHEST RANKED |
---|---|
QB | 4 |
DB | 6 |
RB | 8 |
LB | 14 |
DT | 14 |
OL | 22 |
DE | 39 |
WR | 41 |
ATH | 49 |
HOME STATE | RECRUITS |
---|---|
MI | 13 |
OH | 6 |
PA | 6 |
CA | 4 |
KY | 2 |
MO | 2 |
TX | 2 |
DC | 1 |
FL | 1 |
GA | 1 |
IL | 1 |
IN | 1 |
MD | 1 |
SC | 1 |
VA | 1 |
WA | 1 |
YEAR | RECRUITS |
---|---|
2002 | 2 |
2003 | 6 |
2004 | 5 |
2005 | 7 |
2006 | 7 |
2007 | 3 |
2008 | 3 |
2009 | 2 |
2010 | 1 |
2011 | 1 |
2012 | 3 |
2013 (*) | 4 |
January 28th, 2013 at 1:06 PM ^
January 28th, 2013 at 1:12 PM ^
I decided to leave my opinion out in order to allow others to interpret. The tables themselves contain the facts. I killed too much office time doing this already. My thoughts? The number was a bit lower than I expected, especially for the top 50 or so. Surprised we haven't really recruited a top flight WR. A good portion of that list gave strong contributions to our team.
I figured the dialogue in the posts might do the work of creating a conversation.
January 28th, 2013 at 1:17 PM ^
this is kind of meta, but we should have a wiki with all of the blogs copious data in it. I have killed my share of office time crunching numbers a few times for this blog and its a shame that these posts get buried and someone repeats that effort. you'd think we'd have done something by now.
January 28th, 2013 at 1:24 PM ^
I'm all for that idea. Not sure how they could present it to be useful, but it would save some people a lot of time. This didn't take too long, but when I used to do the conference power rankings, that took forever.
January 28th, 2013 at 1:17 PM ^
I feel your pain.
"I killed too much office time doing this already."
January 28th, 2013 at 2:44 PM ^
But what's your definition of "top flight WR"? Manningham was a 4 star, Top 50 player and ranked 5th at this position. That seems pretty good to me. Of the guys who were ranked ahead of him, I'd say only DeSean Jackson is having a bigger pro career than him, so again, pretty elite.
Now, granted, Mario is the ONLY example I can put forth....
January 28th, 2013 at 5:43 PM ^
There will always be the Braylon Hart caveat, but I mean a 5 star can't miss type guy. Obviously anyone on this list can be considered top flight, just surprised we haven't nailed a top 10 type guy before, especially with the guys we have playing in the league.
January 28th, 2013 at 1:10 PM ^
beyond the copious stats, but what do you add with that comment?
January 28th, 2013 at 1:10 PM ^
Wat are you getting at with your comment? The guy put together some interesting info on past recruiting. During recruiting season. On a day where there is not a shred of new FB content around here.
January 28th, 2013 at 1:48 PM ^
To PA Baller,
The history of the Rivals 100 players at Michigan indicates that we shouldn't expect Derrick Green to be a major contributor next year. Few freshman players start and fewer make a big impact.
Thanks for asking,
3GB
January 28th, 2013 at 1:09 PM ^
January 28th, 2013 at 3:58 PM ^
These quotes are a manifestation of panning out. Marques Slocum, his fuck lion, and Carla will forever live in the pantheon of Michigan men (and women and fuck lions).
January 28th, 2013 at 9:52 PM ^
They refused to sell me one.
Said the Lions were fucked enough already.
January 28th, 2013 at 4:39 PM ^
Could I get a hint as to what this is refering to? I know vaguely of Slocum, but he was a bit before the time period where I started following recruiting.
January 28th, 2013 at 1:12 PM ^
Tables.
January 28th, 2013 at 1:16 PM ^
looking at those "1"s next to 2010 and 2011 is sad
January 28th, 2013 at 1:49 PM ^
Yes, but not as sad as the 14 top 100 players from '05-'06 that never won a Big Ten championship and never beat Ohio State.
January 28th, 2013 at 11:16 PM ^
I thought the cupboard was empty for richrod? interesting...
seriously, interesting...
January 28th, 2013 at 1:21 PM ^
Looking over the top 10 players on the list, Grady is the only one that didn't really pan out. Mallett may not have played for us, but he was pretty good. That bodes well for Green, Kalis, and Pipkins.
January 28th, 2013 at 1:23 PM ^
every time I see the name Antonio Bass it makes me sad about what could have been.
January 28th, 2013 at 1:23 PM ^
Looking at the gaudy numbers of the early years of the decade makes it hard to take that the cupboard was bare by 2008
YEAR | RECRUITS |
---|---|
2002 | 2 |
2003 | 6 |
2004 | 5 |
2005 | 7 |
2006 | 7 |
January 28th, 2013 at 1:41 PM ^
January 28th, 2013 at 3:31 PM ^
January 28th, 2013 at 11:20 PM ^
why did they underachieve or not succeed?
very interesting I say... very interesting...
January 28th, 2013 at 1:38 PM ^
January 28th, 2013 at 1:41 PM ^
Is the Rivals page for Michigan not working for anyone else.
I just get a blank white screen that says "ok"
January 28th, 2013 at 2:04 PM ^
They couldn't handle the bandwidth of a major site like MGoBlog referencing their databases.
January 28th, 2013 at 2:04 PM ^
Could you imagine getting 4 or 5 guys like this a year like USC / Alabama do with regularity? I think we're getting there though... definitely headed in the right direction.
January 28th, 2013 at 2:10 PM ^
Doug Dutch! This from Wiki
January 28th, 2013 at 2:47 PM ^
I appreciate your compilation of data. It is very helpful to see.
Two observations:
- I concur with the note that our WR recruiting hasn't been outstanding. We have a great class, but it really is too bad that Treadwell went elsewhere.
- It is good to see the numbers over the last 12 years. Specifically, to see there was a time when having 5 - 7 in the Rivals 100 was common and expected. Thankfully, we're heading in that direction.
January 28th, 2013 at 4:46 PM ^
In an effort to give a little life to this data, I have attempted to score each of the above prospects into three highly subjective categories:
- Bust. Did not meet expectations or produce (for whatever reason).
- Role Player. Decent career; some issue kept him from being great.
- Impact Player. Consistent game-changing plays.
For the young guys who may not have had time to fall into a category, we'll just remove them from the data.
Here goes:
BUSTS:
- Ryan Mallett (not his fault)
- Kevin Grady
- Will Campbell (one above average season is below expectations)
- Justin Turner
- Marques Slocum
- Carlos Brown
- Boubacar Cissoko
- Antonio Bass
- Dann O'Neill
- Justin Boren
- Clayton Richard
- Alex Mitchell
- Cory Zirbel
- Jim Presley
- Adam Patterson
- Toney Clemons
- Matt Gutierrez
- Ryan Mundy
- Brett Gallimore
- James McKinney
- Doug Dutch
- Cullen Christian
Total: 22
ROLE PLAYERS:
- Prescott Burgess
- Tim Jamison
- Daryl Stonum
- Greg Mathews
- Terrance Taylor
Total: 5
IMPACT PLAYERS:
- Chad Henne
- LaMarr Woodley
- Brandon Graham
- Donovan Warren
- Stephen Schilling
- Gabe Watson
- Shawn Crable
- Jonas Mouton
- Mario Manningham
Total: 9
So of the 36 players examined using my completely BS opinion, I have 22 (61%) busts, 5 (14%) role players, and 9 (25%) impact players. So about 1 in 4 of these players were very good or great, about 2 in 5 were contributors, and the other three either got injured, transferred, or just weren't very good at football in college.
Patterns worth noting:
- The bottom seven ranked players were all busts.
- Of the ten highest-ranked players, three were busts, one was a role player, and the other six were impact players
- The eight unranked players (not enough data yet) are Derrick Green, Ondre Pipkins, Kyle Kalis, Henry Poggi, Erik Magnuson, Shane Morris, Patrick Kugler, and Justice Hayes.
- Three of those unranked players (Green, Pipkins, and Kalis) would have been in the top ten.
January 28th, 2013 at 5:08 PM ^
January 28th, 2013 at 8:01 PM ^
Yes, and it's not even close. Mouton's stats and honors:
124 solo; 140 ast; 264 tot; 18 tfl; 3.0 sk; 4 INT; 9 PD; 2 FF. Jonas Mouton almost single-handedlly defended our opponents in 2010, racking-up 117 tackles with 8.5 for loss, 2.0 sacks, and two picks. He made 13 tackles and a game-changing INT against Notre Dame, giving us a chance in another miracle win over the Irish. He was one of 51 players on the Butkus watch list. He led the conference in tackles, and was second team all-B1G. Anyone who watched games in 2010 knows that without him, we have another losing season. He had 5 double-digit tackle games in 2010, and 9 in his career.
Burgess' stats and honors:
80 solo; 49 ast; 129 tot; 10.5 tfl; 3.0 sk; 2 INT; 12 PD; 2 FF. Burgess had double-digit tackles in only two games in his career, both in 2005. He was an honorable mention All-B1G in 2005 and 2006, but never really an impact player. His best season was his 81 tackle junior campaign.
You could argue that Burgess was an impact player; I would respectfully disagree. But I don't see how anyone can argue that Mouton wasn't an impact player. He was one of the best defenders in the conference and ranked 17th nationally in tackles his senior year.
January 28th, 2013 at 8:27 PM ^
I also disagree that Mouton was a better player than Burgess. I would take Burgess over Mouton any day. I would also take Terrence Taylor over Mouton, and I think Mouton and Tim Jamison are about a wash. Based on how you ranked everyone else, I'd put Mouton in your role players category.
January 29th, 2013 at 10:19 AM ^
Talent is not the question here. The issue is: how did these players impact the game? Without a doubt, of the players you mention, Mouton had a greater impact on Michigan's record than the other guys.
You can make all sorts of points about circumstances, coaching, and the supporting cast, but there is no doubt--based on the stats and the eye test--that Mouton had a greater impact on our record than those other guys.
I know not everyone liked Mouton, but he was 2nd team All-B1G, put up amazing numbers, and sometimes seemed to be the only one playing defense during the GERG era.
January 28th, 2013 at 5:49 PM ^
Depends on your definition of a bust. I wouldn't even factor in a guy like Bass, or transfers like Mallett, Boren, or Mundy. However, your point could be argued as well. Talent wise, I think at least half of this list was a decent player somewhere.
January 29th, 2013 at 10:16 AM ^
My definition of bust is simply a player that did not contribute adequately to the program. It has nothing to do with talent.
When looking at the likelihood of a highly-ranked player being successful, you have to factor in transfers and injuries.
January 28th, 2013 at 5:18 PM ^
So there's a couple ways to look at this. There are 44 recruits in the top 100 over the past 12 years (2002-2013) [assuming pledges for '13 class listed here]
12 Year Average = 3.67 Top100 recruits/year
UM 2012 Class = 4
UM 2013 Class = 4
So Hoke and Co ahead in their recruiting based on historical averages
BUT
if you take out the RR years 2009, 2010 (since '08 and '11 were split classes) in which we only have 3 total Top100 recruits then the averages change a bit.
41 Total Top100 Recruits over 10 years = 4.1 / season.
then Hoke & Co are about par for the course
BUT
If you look at two classes combined '12/'13 doesn't measure up to some of the Carr classes
2003-2004 had 11
2005-2006 had 13
January 28th, 2013 at 5:51 PM ^
I thought I was over it. But then I saw his name and realized that I wasn't. Sigh, I miss you, Donovan. Why did you leave me?!
January 29th, 2013 at 3:24 AM ^
2006 team had 20 guys who were at one point or another on an NFL roster. Kind of gives you an idea of how disappointed we should have been with not winning a single Rose Bowl in those years.