Hear me out - what if it's just an unfortunate situation with no one to blame?

I work in investing and have seen the progression of things get shorter-term over time, especially with a 24/7 media and an insatiable desire for more real-time information.  I've observed that the media especially has tended to dumb down complex situations into easy-to-process soundbites that oftentimes leaves out context or doesn't reveal the bigger picture.  And especially so, we seem to need a binary explanation that is black and white - someone to blame, someone to glorify, winners and losers.  But most of the time, that's not how the world works.  And I think that applies to the current situation.

 

I might get crucified for this view, but I'm actually not sure that Harbaugh has done anything wrong.  And I might even say the same thing about Warde / the AD.  Again, please hear me out.

 

In defense of Harbaugh:

 

The man left the NFL to come back to Michigan when Michigan was a disaster, and I really believe he tried his best to turn things around.  He's been screwed in many ways that we all know about so I won't re-hash, and I would venture to say that he found the playing field far more uneven than he would have thought with all the cheating going on and the shutting down of his innovations like satellite camps.  Let's not forget that he left in what was likely the prime of his NFL career to come back here.  He was an All-American here, and I genuinely believe that even with all of this going on he truly loves the program.  After being slapped in the face in 2020, he stayed and worked his ass off to win big this year.  He may view that he has accomplished what he had set out to do, which was make Michigan a strong, respectable program again.

 

I think many people wouldn't necessarily disagree with the above.  Here's where I may differ from many.  I acknowledge that Harbaugh has zero control over the NFL hiring timeline.  The NFL doesn't care whatsoever about college football and its timelines...  these jobs are coming open when they do, and when front office staff are eventually / finally filled.  I do not believe that it has been Harbaugh's intention to screw over the program in terms of timing.  It's probably not something he has any control over whatsoever.

 

As far as any "betrayal" of Michigan, well, consider the following.  Harbaugh is 58 with small children at home and a wife that probably doesn't want to put up with his relentless recruiting schedule anymore.  As much as he loves Michigan and Ann Arbor, he loves his family more (or he should!).  He knows that Michigan isn't on a level playing field and that the institution (rightly or wrongly to us, for me personally wrongly) will not do what is necessary to level that playing field.  Going against Georgia, he probably understands that it's insurmountable given the situation.  His brother also has a Superbowl ring in a game that he personally lost in - that has to mean something as well.  The NFL is as level a playing field as there is in pretty much any sport globally, so he knows that he can succeed or fail (more so at least) based on his own abilities alone.  Finally, 7 years is a LONG time in someone's career and dedicate yourself to something.  I certainly wouldn't want to stay in the same job that long - at some point, new people, new challenges, new goals become more interesting.  That's pretty human.

 

Now the tricky part - Harbaugh clearly wants to go to the NFL instead of college.  But obviously - to me at least - he can't just come out and say that to everyone.  What's he going to say to Michigan / his staff / his players, that if there's an NFL offer he's going to take it and will only come back to Michigan as a last resort?  Obviously in the event that he doesn't get any NFL offers and has to come back to Michigan, then that's going to bite him in the ass.  People will clearly know he doesn't want to be there.  Michigan might even fire him, leaving him unemployed.  Now he is clearly wealthy, but still a guy like that doesn't want to be unemployed.  Of course he's going to say the "right" things!  I mean what else could he possibly say - it's a lose-lose situation completely for him.  And even then we have reports that he was actually being honest with recruits, saying that he's going to pursue NFL interest but will most likely be back (which was probably true at the time). 

 

I'd ask you to put yourself in the situation.  You are in a current job which you like, but isn't really that well suited to your personal life / lifestyle.  Your employer did something that you perceive was disrespectful to you last year in cutting your wages.  You still performed and knocked it out of the park, but your new compensation clearly isn't your employer saying that they would do anything to keep you (at least you perceive this).  You decide to interview at competing firms, which some might say are more prestigious even.  But realistically, you aren't going to tell your teammates / current employer at your current firm that you are planning to leave in case you have to stay...  I won't even elaborate on that - it's incredibly obvious from a upside / downside or risk-reward perspective.  All I'm saying is, I can understand why Harbaugh acted the way he did.  I don't think it was to screw anyone or "hurt" Michigan, even though it obviously is doing so.  It's just his only option.

 

I think we are all emotionally invested in Michigan football as fans and can't imagine a better situation.  But objectively if you are an actual head football coach with NFL or college options, I think there are far "easier" coaching jobs than here.  I would never begrudge a man for doing what he thinks is best for himself and his family.

 

In defense of Warde:

 

Many on here blame Warde for serving up an embarrassing contract to Harbaugh after the 2020 season, as that may have caused today's situation.  Well, again here we need nuance and not just anger or blame.  Multiple things can be true - Warde could have been justified in cutting Harbaugh's comp last year (as I believe he was - the program was in an absolute tailspin), AND Warde could have justifiably taken into account 2021's result and paid Harbaugh $10M a year to stay.  But he didn't, and he clearly doesn't think that Harbaugh is worth that much.  And I'm not sure that it's wrong...  before 2021, Harbaugh had never won the division and the program was on a clear downward trend.  His overall record in 7 years is really objectively good in terms of wins and losses, NFL players produced, etc. but short on actual results (one B10 championship, one shared division title in 2018 when OSU moved on by virtue of beating the piss out of us in the tiebreaker).  Warde clearly chose to pay Harbaugh based on his entire body of work over 7 years, as opposed to extrapolating 2021 in a straight-line going forward.  He isn't making the same "mistake" (in his view) that many market participants are, which is extrapolating recent history far into the future.

 

Personally, I disagree with Warde.  I think making a super strong offer to Harbaugh - say $10M a year - has way more upside than downside, especially with our momentum and also in the context of general coaching salary inflation (in a few more years, I don't think $10M is that crazy).  However, again - nuance - I think that Warde / the AD's decision is pretty defensible.  In the context of Harbaugh's overall body of work, is he really worth more than $7.6M plus incentives to hit >$10M with wins?  While not the decision I would make, I can easily and quite justifiably see the rationale.  In fact, I think there's a case to be made that Warde did Harbaugh a favor by even retaining him at all...

 

It's easy for us now to forget after an incredible season, a win over OSU, and a B10 championship, but the days following the 2020 season were as dark as I can remember.  The program looked to be rising hard in 2018 but then lost in historic fashion to an OSU team that we were actually favored against in Columbus, ruining the season in a completely terrible performance against Florida.  Then in 2019, basically the same thing happens.  Of course, then 2-4 in 2020.  I think without Harbaugh's university ties, he easily could have been fired.  And I would have been completely fine with it.  He lost to the worst MSU team in decades to a first year head coach who once turned down the job, in a game in which we probably out-talented MSU as hard as OSU out-talents us!  I mean, it was one of the biggest upsets in Michigan history.  Is it really so hard to think that Warde actually did him a favor by keeping him at all?

 

Summary:

 

I feel terrible for the players, the non-Harbaugh attached staff, and the program. Undoubtedly we will be set back, and I've always said that Michigan's biggest enemy is itself. That's unfortunately happened again. But what if it's not the result of some draconian and sabotage and vindictiveness, but just a result of horrible timing outside of anyone's control? If Harbaugh had always wanted to go to the NFL (and I think the reasons are totally valid), how else could he have done it? And what else could Michigan do without knowingly overpay (from its perspective) especially if he wanted to leave anyway? Is it not valid that we are all as fans just a victim of randomness and chaos as opposed to any ill-intent on the part of two men who I believe really actually love Michigan?

 

As an aside, I'm surprised at some (many?) who were so adamant that he was staying (and there were a few who thought he was leaving the whole time, just as strangely).  If history is any guide, these things are fairly unpredictable especially in the context of 2020 and 2021.  A good reminder that outcomes can be vastly different from expectations, and always good to keep a flexible mind.  For what it's worth, I'm surprised that it turned out like this, but certainly not shocked - it was well within the realm of the possible, as Balas had always said from the start.