Fate of First #7 CFP Poll Teams
I was curious about how each team that was ranked #7 in the season's first CFP poll have fared and I thought I would share what I found.
- 2014 TCU finished 12-1 (8-1), Big 12 co-champions with Baylor, defeated Ole Miss 42-3 in the Peach Bowl
- 2015 Michigan State finished 12-2 (7-1), Big Ten Champion (16-13 vs. Iowa), lost to Alabama in the Cotton Bowl CFP Semifinal 0-38
- 2016 Louisville finished 9-4 (7-1) and lost to LSU 9-29 in the Citrus Bowl
- 2017 Penn State finished 11-2 (7-2) and beat Washington in the Fiesta Bowl 35-28
- 2018 Oklahoma finished 12-2 (8-1), Big 12 champion (39-27 vs. Texas), and lost to Alabama 34=45 in the Orange Bowl CFP Semifinal
- 2019 Oregon finished 12-2 (8-1), Pac-12 Champion (37-15 vs. Utah), and beat Wisconsin the Rose Bowl 28-27
- 2020 Cincinnati finished 9-1 (6-0), AAC Champion (27-24 vs Tulsa), and lost to Georgia in the Peach Bowl 21-24
The final AP rankings for each team, respectively, were 3, 6, 21, 8, 4, 5, and 8.
You'll recall in 2014 the lack of a Big 12 championship game shut out the Big 12 from the playoff.
So what does this all mean?
Probably nothing, but it was interesting to look into anyway.
November 3rd, 2021 at 4:20 PM ^
I hope it means we beat OSU and win the big ten.
November 3rd, 2021 at 6:52 PM ^
That's certainly what I took from it.
November 3rd, 2021 at 7:06 PM ^
Past performance may not be indicative of future results.
November 4th, 2021 at 12:18 PM ^
I'd settle just for beating OSU. Even if it meant going to the Citrus Bowl.
November 3rd, 2021 at 4:21 PM ^
Don't care what we end up being ranked. Don't care about a B10 Championship or a Playoff spot. Don't care if we lose 3 of the last 4 games. Just Beat OSU and I will be in Heaven for days.
November 3rd, 2021 at 4:31 PM ^
Man 95% wants it all (yes I have high expectations) but there is that 5% that thinks this way…
November 3rd, 2021 at 9:41 PM ^
Oh I want it all…but you have to start out with getting the monkey off your back before you get everything.
November 3rd, 2021 at 4:51 PM ^
I agree completely.
We are beating OSU this year.
November 3rd, 2021 at 5:14 PM ^
This team is built for winning THE GAME more than any in Harbaughs tenure
November 3rd, 2021 at 5:26 PM ^
Let's keep our fingers crossed OSU doesn't use tempo and nobly allows us to substitute as we like.
November 3rd, 2021 at 11:05 PM ^
I foresee all of our upcoming opponents trying to do the same. Good news is MSU let the cat out of the bag and I am confident Mike MacDonald with resolve the problem going forward.
November 4th, 2021 at 9:33 AM ^
I foresee us making changes on that front now-ish. It obviously was an embarrassing mistake and coaches don't like being embarrassed.
November 4th, 2021 at 4:46 AM ^
Unfortunately the opposite is also true. OSU is built for winning THE GAME more than any in Ryan Day's tenure.
November 3rd, 2021 at 6:07 PM ^
only days?
I will be dazed and in heaven for, oh, 365 days
November 3rd, 2021 at 4:22 PM ^
The Rose Bowl is not part of the playoff semifinals this year, so the Big Ten has a decent chance of having a team in the playoff and one in the Rose Bowl.
Speaking of possible bowl destinations, does anyone know what the Big Ten tie-in is at this point if you aren't going to the playoff, a NY6 bowl, or the Citrus Bowl? EDIT: it's apparently the Outback Bowl.
November 3rd, 2021 at 4:24 PM ^
Michigan is tied to Orlando, so get your Universal/Disney tickets now!
November 3rd, 2021 at 4:25 PM ^
I'd argue, what it does indicate, is the #7 team in the first CFP rankings is generally a very good team.
The one exception is Louisville and they have been a bit of a paper program for a while now.
I'm guessing Michigan finishes the regular season 10-2 and plays in a prestigious bowl game which would be in-line with 4 of the 7 teams listed. Who wins that game very much depends on match-ups which is way to early to predict.
November 3rd, 2021 at 4:31 PM ^
Can anyone recall a team in such a position and the fanbase still wants the coach fired?
November 3rd, 2021 at 4:38 PM ^
If Harbaugh had beaten OSU once or twice and/or had a better bowl record, I doubt hardly anyone would be calling for his firing.
From 1993 through 1998, John Cooper won 10 or more games (except for one 9-4 season) but was 2-4 against Michigan during this period.
Harbaugh has been exceptionally bad in this area, 0-5 against OSU and 1-4 in bowl games (with the lone win coming all the way back in the first season).
November 3rd, 2021 at 8:18 PM ^
I'm aware why fans are pissed. But does it answer my question? #7 in the CFP playoff rankings. Has anyone in that position with four games left felt compelled to call for the firing of their coach?
Or is the Michigan fanbase just that irrational?
This is how Nebraska debacles are created.
November 3rd, 2021 at 8:52 PM ^
I was just thinking about that this weekend. 7-1 and in the Top 10. Even 10-2 with a (close-ish) loss to OSU would keep them in or near the Top 10.
Trying to remember a coach on the hot seat during/after such a season. Solich's last year was 9-3, ranked #22 at time of firing. That was 18 (mostly disastrous) years ago for Nebraska.
Even Cooper, despite inability to win big games, got 14 years and was fired after two mediocre ones. Trying to think of other examples...
November 4th, 2021 at 10:04 AM ^
Top 10 is awesome -- except when your primary rivals beat you and are above you in that same Top 10 -- you cannot just go with the "Top 10" and ignore that the two games you may lose are the most important ones against the best teams -- that's not Nebraska fans. Especially when losing to one of those rivals has happened every single year.
November 4th, 2021 at 3:53 PM ^
I'm just saying I think it would be unprecedented.
November 3rd, 2021 at 5:00 PM ^
That Louisville team was led by Heisman trophy winner Lamar Jackson. And they had a super impressive start, beating (at the time) #2 FSU.
But yeah, didn't have a complete enough team and lost their last two regular season games.
November 3rd, 2021 at 4:25 PM ^
Thanks for doing the work. I'm a Sparky Anderson type that wants to believe in superstition. Aside from 2016, I'd take any of the other years.
November 3rd, 2021 at 4:27 PM ^
Did any of these teams happen to beat Ohio state
November 3rd, 2021 at 4:34 PM ^
2015 Michigan State did beat OSU 17-14 on November 21st on a 41-yard field goal as time expired.
Penn State came up a point short in 2017, falling 38-39 in Columbus.
November 3rd, 2021 at 4:27 PM ^
Thanks for taking and sharing the deep dive. Agree with your conclusion too.
November 3rd, 2021 at 4:35 PM ^
Thank you for checking. I expected to seem more variance from the starting position. It seems to indicate that the initial poll is about correct and a #7 team is about a #7 team. I don't remember by Louisville collapsed.
November 3rd, 2021 at 4:37 PM ^
I think we need to keep things in perspective. If you would have said this team would have any one of those finishes minus the 2016 Louisville team, back in July we would have taken it. Yeah I also hate losing to MSU but it is what it is. The team is moving forwards not taking steps back.
November 3rd, 2021 at 4:42 PM ^
Honestly, even a #21 finish (would indicate probably around 9 wins) would've looked very attractive before this season played out.
I was as bummed as anyone here with coming out on the losing side of an otherwise pretty amazing football game, but as you said, perspective is important. Our O/U on W/L was 7.5 prior to the season.
There's plenty of football left to play and plenty to play for at that.
November 4th, 2021 at 1:49 PM ^
This record of 7-1 may have more to do with Washington and Wisconsin not being all that great. Though WI is improving through the season. Harbaugh should have beaten MSU being up 30-14 late in the 3rd QTR.
November 3rd, 2021 at 4:56 PM ^
This post is really the essence of sports fandom--interesting, ultimately meaningless, but enjoyable.
November 3rd, 2021 at 5:14 PM ^
So here is another meaningless little tidbit. If you averaged out the teams who started ranked 7th and where they ended. It's still 7th.!
(Well 7.8th but I rounded down for a more fun effect. )
November 3rd, 2021 at 4:59 PM ^
- 2014 TCU finished 12-1 (8-1), Big 12 co-champions with Baylor, defeated Ole Miss 42-3 in the Peach Bowl
"Does this mean Jim Harbaugh will be fired in 2028????" -- I know one of you chowderheads is thinking this
November 3rd, 2021 at 5:05 PM ^
I can think of 3 to 9 reasons why the 2015 MSU analogy wasn't used. :-)
November 3rd, 2021 at 5:03 PM ^
I read on Reddit last night that, on average, 7 teams get ranked in the Top 4 over the course of a year's CFP weekly rankings.
In 2021, Georgia, Alabama, MSU and Oregon have already achieved this.
Ohio State I'm sure will get in the Top 4 at some point (probably at the expense of MSU).
Maybe Cincinnati, as the committee tries to show "hey, we don't 100% hate them!" Of course, UC will never be in the final Top 4, but there's no real harm to putting them #4 in some week.
That leaves a 7th spot. OU and U-M would seem to be the 2 most likely teams. I'm still curious what they would do with a 13-0 Wake Forest, but WF would have to get there (none of their remaining 5 games are lay-ups).
November 3rd, 2021 at 8:21 PM ^
If you guys could help us out getting into the Top 4 that would be great. Ok? (Lumberg voice)
November 3rd, 2021 at 11:15 PM ^
An early look at my bets for this week: UNC upsets Wake Forest and Purdue upsets MSU.
Commence chaos. It'll be a fun November.
November 4th, 2021 at 5:20 AM ^
Don't mention chaos when we are playing Chaos time this week? Almost every year we have a gunfight with these guys. I know they aren't meant to be good...but that was the same almost every year of my fandom. When it finishes 63-62 (2OT) to the good guys, I'll be able to relax.
November 3rd, 2021 at 5:31 PM ^
Wait..... has anyone ever seen John Cooper and Jim Harbaugh in the same room at the same time?
November 3rd, 2021 at 6:33 PM ^
Not in the same room, but the same field. Cooper's ASU team of 1986 beat Harbaugh in his last game for U of M in the 1987 Rose Bowl. Interestingly, that win by Cooper in the Rose Bowl made him a top candidate for the OSU job after the Bucks fired Earle Bruce.
November 3rd, 2021 at 5:38 PM ^
Only one team who was initially ranked #3 has gone on to make the playoffs. Clemson last year.
November 3rd, 2021 at 5:48 PM ^
Michigan falls in November more than the leaves do from the trees.
November 3rd, 2021 at 5:54 PM ^
Well generally they play their hardest teams in November.
November 3rd, 2021 at 6:33 PM ^
I know. I’m just tired of falling apart to the tune of a 9-3 record.
November 3rd, 2021 at 7:02 PM ^
That seems unfair. Tough teams to play. Some of the games are away. Some are at night. And the the refs......don't get me started on the refs. It just doesn't seem fair that it is so much harder to win when we play the meat of our Big Ten schedule. It seems Michigan has so many obstacles to overcome year after year.
November 3rd, 2021 at 7:16 PM ^
Totally the refs in November. lol
I just can't take anyone that makes excuses seriously.
November 3rd, 2021 at 5:53 PM ^
The highest initially CFP ranking team to make the playoff was Ohio State in 2014 Ranked #16. Last year was the first time ever that the initial top 4 teams were the same teams to make the playoff, covid schedules most likely had a lot to do with this.