ESPN Releases FPI strength of schedule for upcoming FB season
According to FPI, UM has the 21st most difficult schedule in the country and the 8th hardest in the B10. Minn. has the hardest schedule in the B10 and 2nd hardest in the nation. MSU has the second hardest schedule in the B10 and the 7th most difficult overall. OSU is at 23.
https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi/_/view/resume/sort/resume.sosremainingrank/dir/asc
Seems like FPI is pretty bullish on the B10.
Gophers get both Michigan and Ohio State as crossovers. Ouch.
In general, the rest of the B1G East ranks way up there for schedule difficulty due to having to play 3 top 10 FPI teams in Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State.
I'm surprised the Gophers have a "tougher" schedule than IU, Maryland, Rutgers and MSU. Of those 4, IU also plays Wiscy and Illinois. I guess Minnesota is traveling to UNC for their 10th P5 game, and that helps to make up for playing Penn St.
With that schedule, Minny could go 6-6 and get into the playoffs.
And should.
Curious over how people feel about Illinois. Are they considered a "threat" in the conference now because of last year? Or was it probably just a one-year thing?
Remember that in 2007, Ron Zook (of all coaches) beat Ohio State in Columbus and then took Illinois to the Rose Bowl. He followed that up with four more seasons going 5-7, 3-9, 7-6 and 7-6 before getting fired. I could see that happening with Bert.
Although Bert is a massive POS so that may be some of my hate talking.
I think they're a threat - I know they lost their DC and QB, as well as an excellent CB. But they were tough up front - not sure if they're replacing a lot there, but skill positions matter less. And Bielema has a track record for building beefy teams, Illinois seems to be following the blue print.
Frankly, I think the west comes down to them and Iowa, and I lean towards them almost entirely because of Brian Ferentz
I feel like Cade is a very Ferentzian (in a good way) QB, and just getting solid QB play will be such a dramatic improvement over last year that Iowa should be the favorite in the West.
I would not underestimate Adam Sandler at Wisconsin, who certainly has equal or better talent than Iowa and Illinois. Nor would I underestimate Purdue. I also expect Matt Rhule to shake things up, although it might be too early for him to be effective with the hot mess left by hard-hitting Scott Frost. As for Minnesota, I think this is the beginning of the end for the CEO with the custom shoes. A lot of coaching talent accumulating in the east, and he aint one of them.
I think my calculus on both Wiscy and Purdue is, even in the portal era, it's more likely to make modest steps in year 1 than grand steps. Also, not all of Wiscy, Purdue and Nebraska will work out. Minnesota is replacing some big pieces. Illinois and Iowa seem like steadier ships who are who tehy are. Iowa is upgrading the offense but....that coordinating.
We'll see.
It wasn't just Weatherspoon --- Illinois had 3 Secondary guys drafted in the first 3 rounds of the latest NFL Draft. Plus, they had another secondary guy go in each of the 2021 & 2022 drafts.
I think that's an underappreciated reason for their 2022 (and back half of 2021) success. Definite talent on defense. It allowed them to play a lot of what Bielema likes: low-scoring, low-possession games (the 2022 Michigan game fits here)
They've only allowed 24+ points in 2 of their last 18 B1G games (2021 & 2022) - which is a pretty incredible stat. 2021 Iowa was one of those teams, FWIW.
Anyway, their first 2 B1G games are hosting PSU and at Purdue. Decent enough offenses. So we should get a rid on them early. If they're allowing mid-20s and beyond in those games, that's a strong sign they'll regress IMO.
I think Illinois is going to feel the absence of Chase Brown.
If not for Moodys kick they'd have beaten us... So I'd say they're a real threat.
Both this and the above are true. But also, they were stellar up front, had DBs that outplayed our WRs and JJ, and getting banged up happens in football. I think they're a real threat.
Bert will have a competitive team - it won't be flashy, won't score many points, and you'll have to work all day long against their defense. It'll be a typical Bert team, competitive but not too dangerous.
That'll fuck up a set of oars.
Who's bowl of Wheaties did Minnesota pee in to get those crossovers? Key-rist!
Ladies & Gentlemen I present to you your 2023 Michigan State Spartans!
I see 3-9, maybe 4-8 if they can beat Rutgers. I dont see any way to five wins and losing to the Chips isnt out of the question either.
Central Michigan Chippewas W
Richmond Spiders W
Washington Huskies L
Maryland Terrapins L
Bye week
at Michigan Wolverines L
Penn State Nittany Lions L
at Iowa Hawkeyes L
at Minnesota Golden Gophers L
Indiana Hoosiers (Homecoming) W
at Ohio State Buckeyes L
Nebraska Cornhuskers L
at Rutgers Scarlet Knights L
I thought Michigan will play at East Lansing this year. No?
I thought so too but given that I pulled this schedule directly from one of their blog sites I figured they'd know who they're about to lose to....I mean play....this year.
That's an old version of their schedule (the B1G switched things around for 2023 in spring 2022).
Their actual schedule:
- Central Michigan (Friday Night)
- Richmond
- Washington
- Maryland
- at Iowa
- BYE WEEK
- at Rutgers
- Michigan
- at Minnesota
- Nebraska
- at Ohio State (night game)
- at Indiana
- Penn State (Friday)
Maybe it's just me, but I wouldn't be shocked if they are 4-2 or even 5-1 going into the Michigan game:
- Sure, beating Washington at home would be an upset, but as of right now they are a 4-point underdog in Vegas. That's hardly an implausible result.
- Win that game and they build momentum for Maryland the next week. Maryland is 0-4 all-time in East Lansing since joining the B1G, and Locksley has a rather sparse record of winning road conference games against anyone with even a remote pulse.
- Rutgers is 1-8 all-time versus MSU since joining the B1G. It's still Rutgers.
Say it with me everyone:
MELLLLLLLLLLLL!!!!
I hope MSU is undefeated and feeling very full of themselves when they host us.
MSU isn't beating any team with a decent passing game. Washington and Maryland will win and they'll likely lose to Iowa as well. That's 3 losses going into the Michigan game, which they'll then lose and thus lose all motivation for the rest of their season.
If MSU/Washington wasn't in September, I'd agree with you with considerably more certainty.
But it's in mid-September. MSU will likely be 2-0, they shouldn't be beaten down or demoralized just yet, it will be at home, likely sold-out, possibly a night game, and the opposition is coming in from 2000+ miles away.
Washington may be good, but that's not an easy spot. For a historical analogy, it's not unlike Michigan's 2000 visit to UCLA (coached by the mediocre Bob Toledo, he's no better than Mel Tucker, and they finished 1999 at 4-7 and 2000 at 6-6).
It's all about matchups. Washington has a Heisman favorite QB, talented receivers, and a coach who excels in scheming the passing game. MSU has one of the worst pass defenses in the country 3 years running. That game will turn into a track meet and MSU won't be able to keep up.
I see them at 3-3.
Our game will be the swing game for the rest of the season.
It will all ride. Collapse or make a season of it.
How exactly are they winning all these games?
They have no proven QB and even then it will take time for them to even be effective (if they ever are).
No high end RB talent. No high end receiver.
A terrible defense.
And you think 4-2 or 5-1 is possible?
You have to score points to win and they aren't gonna be a good defense.
CMU, Richmond, Maryland and at Rutgers. That's not exactly murderer's row. And it's all they need to get to 4-2.
I get it --- Maryland has Taulia, they have talent. Every single summer, they're a popular pick here to be a break-through team. And maybe this will be the year.
But since joining the B1G, Maryland has only once (!!!) won a road game against a B1G school that finished the season bowl-eligible. And that was in 2014, beating an absolutely dreary 6-6 PSU squad, PSU's worst team since the early 2000s, winning by a point in a game where they were +2 on turnovers.
If my life is on the line, and I had to bet on Maryland @ MSU straight-up today, I'm taking MSU. Yes, I believe in Mel and MSU more than I do Locksley and Maryland.
You must really think lowly of Locksley.
Taulia and Hemby and a couple 4* WRs are enough to tip the scales to the Terps for me.
Yep. I do have a low opinion of Locksley's coaching ability.
Let's take last season. Maryland is 6-2 at Halloween, and had played Michigan & Purdue somewhat close in losses (although Michigan wasn't really that close, that gets overplayed). Anyway, 6-2 is still good, and they really had a chance for a breakthrough November.
And then the infamous "Terp Kablooey" happens:
- Were uncompetitive on the road against a middling Wisconsin team. This fits the narrative of "Maryland can't win on the road against anyone with a slight pulse."
- The next week, they were a complete abomination in a 30-0 loss at Penn State. PSU scores on their 1st possession, it starts raining, and the Turtles literally went right into their shells and gave up. 27-0 at the half. Allowed 9 sacks, 7 before the half, accumulated only 11 first downs on the game, 6 of them in a meaningless 4th Quarter. I wasn't expecting Maryland to beat PSU, but they looked like an FCS team and seemingly didn't even try to compete!
- Lost to OSU by 13, though the "danger" the Buckeyes were in here is overplayed. Maryland gets within 1 score w/ 10:00 to play and then their "offense" after that was 2 drives, 5 plays, -11 yards, 0 first downs and 1 turnover.
- They whoop up on Rutgers.
- Beat a fellow middle-of-the-pack-of-their-conference team (NC State) in a 2nd-rate Bowl game sponsored by a 2nd-rate Mayonnaise Brand.
Anyway, my narrative on Locksley --- I don't believe he's capable of getting himself and his team to be anything beyond run-of-the-mill.
Admittedly, that may be good enough to win at MSU in 2023 --- but again, reference the 2022 Wisconsin game (2022 MSU also beat Wisconsin).
Say what you will about Tucker --- but his MSU tenure includes wins over both U-M and PSU, along with a NYD6 Bowl win.
Couple things. First, don't forget that MSU plays Maryland in September. Early season Maryland =/= late season Maryland.
But since joining the B1G, Maryland has only once (!!!) won a road game against a B1G school that finished the season bowl-eligible.
It's hard to see MSU being bowl eligible, so I'm not sure how much weight this has. They were 5-7 last year, lost quite a bit of the talent they did have, and don't seem to be bringing much of any talent in. Guys, even starter-level guys, were fleeing like rats off a sinking ship. Hard to see them treading water let alone improving. Even taking the rival aspect out of it, hard to see them being better than 3-9 or 4-8...
College football games are won in the trenches. MSU's O-line was respectable at the end of the year, and they've got good talent on the D-Line (and at linebacker). They also brought in a new coach from the NFL for their secondary. They might be better than we think if the quarterback plays above average. We will win in East Lansing by 3 scores, but I'll call 6-6 for them with at least one win over somebody that is ranked.
Not an expert on IU but MSU needed overtime to beat them last year, could be an L too.
Au Contraire!
Sparty was up 24-7 at half - and then 31-14 late 3Q - at home, on senior day, needing a W to become bowl eligible, and lost 39-31 to an Indiana team who's QB position went a full game of 2/7 for 31 yards (and, if I recall, all 2 of their total game completions were in 1H).
Losing to a bad team that has no QB at home on senior day, in which you lead by 3 scores late, was only exacerbated by the comedy of errors that was sparty's goal-line offense when 31-31 just before end of regulation (and ended up badly missing a FG from the 1-2 yard line to send to OT after mismanaging the clock).
Pure, unadulterated, delicious schadenfreude at its finest, watching their stunned fans (all 15 of them) walk out in the cold rain after the epic collapse kept them from bowl season eligibility and the much-needed practices it affords...
Yes I probably took entirely too much satisfaction out of that one, but you can't make this script up - epic collapse.
I forgot how epic that collapse was.
And no you did not get an abnormal amount of satisfaction from that game….at least according to my in season therapist
Thank you sir.
@Michigan? I hope this is true, but likely a typo.
Bye week L
FIFY
I was going to say you can count out Indiana or the Bye Week beating them either.
as to sparty, i'll say this again many times before we play them: sparty is like a vampire that you can't quite kill, that wooden stake never quite hits the heart. talk to me after the game, hopefully a win and i'm sure we'll be favored. too many years of history where they have pulled a win out against us despite what seemed like long odds.
That's why we play the game. Think about the Harbaugh era against Sparty.
2015 - They were the slightly better team and won on the last play
2016 - We were clearly the better team and won by 2 scores
2017 - They were the slightly better team and we had the ball at the end of the game with a chance to win, but lost by 4
2018 - We were the better team and won by 2 TD.s
2019 - We were the better team and spanked them by 5 TD's
2020 - Covid year. Both teams were terrible and we lost by 1 score.
2021 - We were the better team but they were also a very good team. It was a slightly fluky game and we had the ball late with a chance to win and turned it over.
2022 - We were the better team and won by 3 TD's.
When I look at this the only year Harbaugh had the better team and still lost was 2021 and we lost to a very good Sparty team. I think all of those years of losing to Dantonio plus the '15 game has all given us a bit of PTSD but if we look at the 2 teams during that timeframe they were just better than us. It pains me to admit that, but it's true. One aspect of the Harbaugh era that I've really liked is he beats the teams he should beat. How many losses has he had that could accurately be described as an upset?
2016 Iowa is definitely one. That was a game Michigan had zero business losing, but they lost anyway. But by and large you’re right. They’ve had several “way too close for comfort” games against inferior competition, especially in 2017, but they’ve usually avoided big time upsets.
Theyve had big losses, but they’re usually against equal or better teams.
I didn't know Richmond had a football program.
I thought it was an all girls school ...
So Sparty gets a bye week before playing Michigan for the 3rd straight year? Shouldn't those start rotating at some point?
No, MSU doesn't have a bye prior to U-M in 2023 (that's not the correct schedule).
For those who think bye weeks are a notable advantage (I'm not among them, but fair enough to those who think otherwise), MSU didn't benefit in 2022 anyway because both teams had a bye week prior.
By the time they're 2-4, they will quit on the season. 2-10 will be the end point. Tucker will make 5 million per win. If Harbaugh made that, he'd have clocked 65 million last year.
Hmmm, where I have heard this before? Oh yes, every year they've appeared to be weak since 1988 and perhaps earlier.
I'm not doubting you're correct--well, maybe I am--but if I remember correctly you're a few years older than I, MGrow. You must know how often this prediction has been made over the years, and how often they've pulled a rabbit out of a hat/few extra seconds out of a timer/violent crime out of a tunnel to flip the script.
Now, with all of the upheaval, unforeseen departures, and a head coach who is...lacking in everything except dollars, the odds are in your favor. Here's to hoping you're wrong, and they lose the first two games.
I’m predicting a CMU win. Fire Up Chips!!