DON'T UNBUCKLE YET

Submitted by Tate on

I'm told that #Michigan could land a new 2016 commitment as early as tomorrow http://t.co/FFlc03vTYt ($) @SamWebb77 @AllenTrieu @BriceMarich

— Corey Bender (@Corey_Bender) June 7, 2015

Link says that newly offered DE/OLB Terrell Lucas plans to annouce this week, possibly as early as Monday, and they think that Michigan has a strong shot.

Another note in that thread: They mention that a second Floridian would commit on the spot if Michigan offered.

Michigasling

June 7th, 2015 at 4:06 PM ^

In my day, the guys with big tattoos hung out with motorcycle gangs and didn't have actual parents (or at least wouldn't admit to it).  The guys in the parents' basement wore dingy T-shirts and sneakers (not to be confused with athletic shoes or trainers, which were a bit too new-fangled to find their way down to the basement). 

Or so I'm told.

Steve in PA

June 7th, 2015 at 10:02 PM ^

Those guys that hung out in their parents' basement got tech jobs in the late '90s and are now multi-millionaires.  I however gave up on tech when my computer instructor proudly announced to the class that the 8088 processor was coming out and that would be the zenith of computer processing.  The same guy thought the MAC was just a glorified computer game.

My son turned 18 on June 2nd and graduated on Friday.  He told me that he can now get ink.  I asked him to just wait a bit and not break his mother's heart.

Roc Blue in the Lou

June 8th, 2015 at 12:03 AM ^

I've got 5 kids--three girls from ages 25 to 11 and twin boys at nearly 7 (yeah, i feel as crazy as that sounds!) and getting a tatoo at 17 means you will find SOMEWHERE ELSE to live...and it sure as heck won't be in my basement (especially not in my way cool mancave section).  Once you can afford ink, you can pay rent.  Preferably at your own apartment.  And no, I'm not sorry.

 

 

 

Oscar

June 7th, 2015 at 5:12 PM ^

"people should you know, be actual adults, before inking their body permanently." Kind of ironic coming from someone with USMC in their handle, since I believe Navy serviceman made it popular in your day (I assume). And yes, I know USMC is not the Navy, but they are under the department of the Navy.

GoBlueUSMC

June 7th, 2015 at 8:54 PM ^

"My day" would be right now.  I'm a 2009 grad of Michigan and an active duty officer in the Marine Corps.

I've got nothing against tattoos or anything like that.  I'd like to get some myself.  To me though, a parent allowing their 16 year old kid get a huge chest tat seems a little silly.

I nearly got a tattoo of my fraternities crest when I was in college, but was talked out of it by my dad, who has 4 tattoos himself.

Gulogulo37

June 7th, 2015 at 9:02 PM ^

Seriously.  Don't get why so many people are pissed off at you like you're being some fascist. I have a tattoo on my chest and don't regret it all, but it's hard to imagine me being happy with a tattoo on my chest if 16 or 17-year-old me was the one allowed to choose it.

Getting a tattoo is not like dyeing your hair or getting a piercing. Tattoo removal is good business.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-2594272/One-six-people-hate-t…

Cali Wolverine

June 7th, 2015 at 7:07 PM ^

...that looks terrible. I just don't get that. I do like some tats, some are really creative or done by real artists and look great. But it is funny going on vacation now and seeing the tat generation start getting older and fatter....hanging out at the pool with their stretched out tats and chasing their kids around.

M-Dog

June 7th, 2015 at 1:25 PM ^

Yeah, it's not like the staff is a week from signing day and they are desperate and out of time.

They must have seen what they like and are willing to pull the trigger right now.  No need to wait around.

This will snowball.  As it becomes clear that Harbaugh will lock in early, it will pressure more kids with interest to commit early so as not to be shut out.

Chaz_Smash

June 7th, 2015 at 7:28 PM ^

There's also a fundamental flaw in recruiting. The players at the top are mostly guys who matured early and started impressing as freshmen and sophomores. Sometimes these guys turn out to be great, but many of them are simply early bloomers who don't stand out when it's all said and done. The late bloomers often turn out to be better players. Just check the lists of NFL stat leaders and how many were relative unknowns in college.

wahooverine

June 7th, 2015 at 4:17 PM ^

Somebody has to offer them first. Kingston Davis didn't have a mega offer sheet when we offered him and has since picked offers from Florida and Texas.  I guess he magically got better? The starz focus is irritating . Some on this site conclude, "eh don't want him" based only on their rigorous analysis looking at how many stars are currently beside his name. Do you think Harbaugh and his staff look at or care how many stars the kid has when evaluating offers?  (this isn't directed at you, just a general rant)

Lanknows

June 7th, 2015 at 4:20 PM ^

I think this reflects a common misconception about what Beilein is and does.  Beilein wants 5 star recruits.  There are some guys he identifies early who are 'underranked' but they are, by and large, a small minority.  He, like any other coach on the planet, wants the Jaylen Browns, Kevin Looneys, and Devin Bookers.  He only moves on to the sleepers after those guys make it clear they aren't coming.  That approach is akin to Michigan's recruitment of Ulazio after other top-tier linemen had passed.  The bball equivalent is grabbing up Spike and Caris after other top targets passed.

This is not that. What Harbaugh and staff are doing is very different given where we are in the cycle.  They are actively pursuing an underdog's strategy.  Not that they aren't pursuing the 4 and 5-star guys too (they've thrown out more offers than even Rodriguez I think) but in accepting a bunch of offers from lower-regarded recruits they are taking away space that could (and probably WOULD) go to higher rated recruits.  Given Michigan's trackrecord that's nearly a given.

I should say that Austin Davis is a decent comparison here, but he is an extremely unusual recruitment for Beilein over the last 5 plus years.

 

M-Dog

June 7th, 2015 at 1:32 PM ^

That will change.  It's still somewhat early and some of these guys have not been that well-scouted yet.
 
And the fact that they got a Harbaugh offer and committed will automatically bump them up.  It becomes self-fulfilling.
 
The only way Harbaugh will ever be able to recruit anyone who stays as just a 2-star is to recruit a punter.
 

Jeff09

June 7th, 2015 at 1:05 PM ^

You've seen here many times that stars correlate (correlate well, not perfectly) with subsequent on-field performance. I know Harbaugh is extremely smart, wants to win, and is excellent at developing players. Given all that I'm going with "trust the coaches they know best" but don't play naïve as if this style of recruiting won't raise some eyebrows within the fanbase. Again though, for me personally, I'll take the Harbaugh results at Stanford over a bunch of underperforming 4 and 5 stars.

Victor Hale II

June 7th, 2015 at 2:59 PM ^

I wasn't aware I was "playing naïve". Oops there I go again. /s But seriously, the skepticism over exactly ONE offer/commit of an unknown player and possibly one more makes no sense to me. Is it so hard to believe that there are overlooked but highly talented players in Alabama and Florida? It isn't for me. If Harbaugh filled the roster with unranked players, all on the 2nd day of Summer Swarm, then I might wonder a bit. But that's not the case here.

BuckNekked

June 7th, 2015 at 8:24 PM ^

Stars at this early point in the cycle, before these kids have played thier senior seasons, correlate as much to interest and offers as anything. Recruiting sevices tend to follow and evaluate kids with buzz first. I expect that Johnson's verbal will generate a similar increase in interest from other schools as Davis' verbal did with a bump in rating to follow.

pescadero

June 8th, 2015 at 12:45 PM ^


If Harbaugh gets "Harbaugh at Stanford" results at Michigan - he will get fired.

 


Harbaugh at Stanford -

won only 58% of his games

1/2 his seasons were sub .500

Only won one bowl game

Only finished ranked in the top 25 once

No conference championships

 

Now - considering where Stanford was prior to Harbaugh, that was great for Stanford... but that won't fly at Michigan.

WolvinLA2

June 7th, 2015 at 1:06 PM ^

I'm not saying they aren't good, but it's accurate to say they are guys who haven't had a lot of attention from other programs despite being from recruiting hotbeds. That doesn't mean they're bad. But the poster above said he hopes they're good at developing players and these guys might need a little more development than a higher rates recruit who is closer to a finished product. But maybe not. Some kids fly under the radar for longer for a number of reasons. And some coaches are better at finding those kids. Outside of a handful of kids, Harbaugh was winning with mostly low-rated recruits at Stanford so I that he can do that here.

MGoVoldemort

June 7th, 2015 at 1:08 PM ^

I'm not a HUGE proponent of the star system, but I'd wager a fair amount that the empirical data would show highly rated kids have, on average, better collegiate careers. You are right, however, I'm not any kind of expert, and if I were provided their film I wouldn't be able to predict how much development they did or did not need.

Mr Miggle

June 7th, 2015 at 2:14 PM ^

There's certainly data to suggest that high ranked recruits as a whole are better prospects than their low ranked counterparts

On the other hand, there's reason to think that low ranked recruits offered by top coaches like Harbaugh are also better than their low ranked brethren. Which has the stronger correlation? I'm inclined to go with the coaches at this point in the process. The rating services often shift their ratings to reflect offers and can change them up to LOI day. That certainly helps them look better when they brag about their reliability.. 

Albatross

June 7th, 2015 at 1:17 PM ^

Is to look at what other offers these kids have. I think that is a better indication on what level of player we are talking about. There are some three stars, that when you look at their offer list are impressive and probably should be four stars, and then there are three stars that when you look at their offer list they look like MAC level players.

So it comes down to who are you beating out for these players.

Let's take Terrell Lucas for example. He holds offers from:

  • Bethune-Cookman
  • Coastal Carolina
  • Florida Atlantic
  • Florida Int.
  • Fordham
  • Miami (OH)
  • Middle Tenn St.
  • Minnesota
  • Monmouth
  • Samford
  • SE Missouri St
  • Syracuse
  • Tulane

So that would typically be a guy that a major power school would offer as a perfered walk on status or maybe a gray shirt. So offering that level of player seems to be a reach, because his offer list doesn't indicate major college player at this point in his development.

 

Franz Schubert

June 7th, 2015 at 1:34 PM ^

This would be a reach if it was near signing day but it's not. The kid has not even finished 11th grade yet and Jerry Kill and Jim Harbaugh have offered him. Give it some time and you will see plenty of big offers and a higher rating. Keep in mind any offers from these camps are based on direct observation and superior to rating services.