Detailing the Dawgs and how to earn the win
We've all read up, watched, or heard about the vaunted UGA defense (and rightfully so, they real good) and their impressive run this season as the #1 team in college football for most of the year. I was interested (and bored) this evening, and thought I would take an advanced look at how Georgia had dispatched of their first 12 opponents this season; which teams actually tell us something; and what happened to them once they ran into Alabama.
I used some advanced metrics from football outsiders to measure the opponents Georgia has played, and keyed in on some of those opponents that would have similar units to Michigan, either offensively, defensively, or both:
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa/fei/overall/2021
Using the O/D FEI ranking, Georgia has played 4 teams that have either an offensive or defensive unit ranked within the top 10 nationally (Alabama the only opponent who has both of their units ranked within the top 10, second and fourth respectively. Michigan, meanwhile will be a close second at 4th and 11th respectively)
Clemson: OFEI 84th, DFEI 5th
This game was so early in the year it really isn't relevant to our matchup with the Dawgs. Georgia wins this game 10-3. As we came to find out, Clemson's offense was atrocious to start the season, and was still not very good to end the season. Michigan is considered such a better offense than Clemson (weird to say), that their production doesn't really tell us much. But Clemson's defense is probably even better than Michigan's. How did the Dawgs stack up against their elite defense (albeit in early in September)?: 10 pts, 4.5 ypa, 4 ypc, 2 TO. Not good, but also too far back to really worth considering.
Kentucky: OFEI 13th, DFEI 36th
The Dawgs played UK on Oct, 16th. Kentucky all things considered had a pretty potent offense, and their defense was decent albeit unspectacular. Let's see how UK did against the vaunted UGA defense: 13 pts., 4.57 ypa, 1.92 ypc, 0 TO. Kentucky took care of the ball... but Georgia shut their legitimately good offense down. Georgia basically suffocated them and coasted to a comfortable 30-13 win.
Tennessee:OFEI 5th, 73rd
I watched a little bit of UT football this year - and specifically their matchup with Georgia, just to see if they were going to finally find a pulse.. and honestly, I think they did. I would not be surprised if Heupel finally figures out a way to start winning some football games in Knoxville again, but it will take some time and also some defense. Tennessee can't play it, but they do have a pretty legit offense and they passed the eye test from my admittedly amateur scouting eye. Here is what Tennessee did: 17 pts, 6.9 ypa, 2 ypc, 2 TO. Tennessee threw the ball effectively in this game (including Joe Milton), but Georgia put UT into a lot of third down situations (20) and UT converted less than half of them. 2 TO by Tennessee and 0 by Georgia turned this from a competitive game into a comfortable win for UGA
Alabama: OFEI 2nd, DFEI 4th
This game obviously was last weekend. Since it is fresh in our minds (for those that watched it), I won't get into any recap. Here are the raw stats for Bama: 41 pts., 9.56 ypa, 4.6 ypc, 0 TO
What does it all mean for Michigan?
I am certainly not a football coach, and no one will be paying me for my scouting services in my lifetime. But if you are trying to identify a pattern here, it's that leaning heavily on your run offense against Georgia is probably going to lead to certain defeat. The teams that gave Georgia's defense some issues are ones that can throw the ball down the field. Make no mistake, Michigan is going to make Georgia pay attention to their run game. The needle that Gattis will have to thread is dialing up plays that test Georgia deep, and Cade/JJ and their pass catchers are going to have to connect on a couple. I'm not sure Georgia is going to stress Michigan's defense with a lot of consistency. Bennett is generally smart with the football, but his arm is pretty weak and I don't think he is going to be able to test Michigan vertically (because of arm strength and Hutch/Ojabo will not allow him to). If Michigan can get UGA off the field on third down and they don't turn the ball over, this game will be very tight. If those things happen and Michigan can hit on some big plays that Georgia can't, Michigan wins 24-20.
In my opinion anyway. So what say you, fellow posters (that care to weigh in)? How would you attack that potent UGA defense and what will it take for a Michigan victory?
TL;DR - from a play calling perspective offensively, you have to thread the needle between keepinh Michigan's ground attack at the front of Georgia's mind, even if you might not be all that successful with it. Keep UGA off balance and hit them vertically when they aren't prepared for it. It will be difficult, but Georgia will not be able to establish the passing attack to respond. Don't turn it over. Michigan can absolutely win a tight game if they can do this.
December 9th, 2021 at 8:50 PM ^
Knibb High Football Rules!
December 10th, 2021 at 12:37 AM ^
San Dimas High School Football rules!
December 9th, 2021 at 8:55 PM ^
To be fair, FEI gave Georgia a 67% chance of beating Bama.
I said in another thread, I think our gameplan should be similar to Tom Herman's gameplan against Bama in the playoffs. Get the ball wide, get their giants chasing and tired. Take a few chances with passes downfield and run up the middle here and there just to keep them honest. In the 2nd half when you've tired them out, run it down their throats. On defense, play our game. Disguise, disguise, disguise to confuse Bennett and let Hutch and Ojabo eat.
December 9th, 2021 at 9:31 PM ^
Yes! This! I have been saying since the OSU game this feels something like the 2014 OSU run, except this time the good guys are the ones that get to have it.
December 9th, 2021 at 9:52 PM ^
I just saw a clip of a gassed Davis giving very little effort during some play vs. 'Bama, and I really think that making their DL tired is the ticket, however that is accomplished. If Michigan can do their non-tempo tempo equivalent, and the defense can keep things within striking distance for the second half, I think Michigan can win this thing.
December 9th, 2021 at 9:18 PM ^
My one concern about this game on defense is stopping Georgia's running game. It may be the most potent rushing offense we've seen all year. I think the key is going to be getting stops on early downs and getting them into clear passing situations. Then Hutch and Ojabo can get to work.
On offense, the key is going to be finishing drives. I think you're absolutely right, though. The running game might not work at first, but it should set up the passing game if they think our coaches are going to stick to it. Gattis has shown some really creative play action lately (that wheel route to All out of the backfield in Indy was a thing of beauty) and they're going to need more of that.
December 9th, 2021 at 9:59 PM ^
100% agree with you on this. And frankly if I am Georgia preparing for this matchup with Michigan, I may just try and win a rock fight, keep the offense super conservative on the ground, and leave it up to my defense to keep Michigan under 20 points. The idea of Hutchinson and Ojabo pinning their ears back against Bennett on obvious passing downs does not sound like a fun time.
Georgia doesn't have a D'Andre Swift level back that is healthy and ready to play in this game, but next to KWIII they will still have the best rushing attack Michigan has played this year. The good news is, they don't have a QB read game which means Ross is going to be able to play his down hill game, and he's going to have to have the game of his career. Still, UGA has a huge offensive line and they are going to move us a little bit. If they can do it to the point where they have Michigan in 3rd and 2 or less consistently, they could definitely slow bleed us to death.
December 10th, 2021 at 7:28 AM ^
our LBrs have to have the games of their lives in this game, they cannot get caught in the wash like they did vs sparti, get off blocks and make the tackle.
on offense we need to keep them guessing, their dline and LBrs are excellent so we need to keep them keying the wrong things and hit them hard.
December 9th, 2021 at 9:23 PM ^
The major difference between the season-long picture of the UGa defense and the UGa defense today is that Adam Anderson has been charged with not one but two separate rapes. He was by FAR their most effective individual pass rusher, a David Bowens circa ‘95/‘96 for us older dudes. Their D is not the same without him and he isn’t coming back. (When you’re so dirty they don’t find a way to get you on the field in the Ess Eee See title game, it’s officially over.)
Their D is still very, very good. But several of the five star DE/edge recruits are really more like four stars. Dean and Tindall and Walker are all excellent, fast, etc … but not unblockable game-changers.
I don’t think we’ll run up the middle much at all, but have to find a way in the passing game to do what Bama did: no AA = more time to attack downfield. Talk to Dawgs fans and they’ve worried about that secondary all season. We don’t have a Metchie or a Jameson W, so we’re going to need some heroic performances to come from somewhere.
December 9th, 2021 at 9:57 PM ^
Am I being a homer when I say that I think Michigan's multiple, tested threats are better than what 'Bama had?
My view of 'Bama is that they basically had two WRs who they trusted. Michigan, meanwhile, can spread it to 4 or 5 guys who have all proven themselves. Wilson, All, Johnson, Anothony, Schoonmaker, Edwards--even Sainristil. This team has a bunch of options to stress the Georgia secondary if the running game can be just good enough to keep the DL, safties, and linebackers honest.
December 9th, 2021 at 10:13 PM ^
I would agree Michigan can be much more multiple in their passing attack than Bama, but they also don't have a guy that can do what Bryce Young can do (yet hopefully). Young is not a runner per se, but he is so elusive in the pocket and he can extend plays with his legs while Williams and Menchie work to get open and they are electric once they get the ball in their hands.
Michigan I would bet is better at manufacturing passing yards, but Bama can take the top of your defense at any given time the way Michigan cannot.
December 10th, 2021 at 4:23 AM ^
So the Bryce Young thing is basically undeniable, unless we're talking about JJ starting, and clearly that's not the case.
But I honestly see at least two guys who can 'take the top off.' Both Johnson and Wilson have shown the polish and speed to do this. They've left all sorts of really fast CBs in their wake. I think there's a case for Edwards, Anthony, and Henning also having the speed, but maybe not the reliability to snag the bomb.
December 9th, 2021 at 10:17 PM ^
Yes, you’re being a homer on that one.
Our WRs get open largely by scheme, they’re solid D1 players and they’ve done a good job of bringing it all season. But none of them is an individual talent that can change the game for us.
December 9th, 2021 at 10:23 PM ^
Anthony might be that guy. Let’s see what he can do with a month of bowl practices.
December 9th, 2021 at 11:58 PM ^
The emergence of Donovan Edwards the past few games has been huge. He is a sure handed pass catcher out of the back field that is damn near as fast as an elite WR. Edwards can be used as a decoy to draw in safeties and corners and help open things up for the down field passing game.
December 10th, 2021 at 4:26 AM ^
Every single guy in that list has gotten open on their own, though, right? Johnson and Wilson in particular had some hand-wavingly-wide-open moments. So did All. And with 4 weeks, I think Cade/JJ can hit these guys.
December 10th, 2021 at 7:35 AM ^
good point, we don't have that super star WR but we do have several really good WRs who can make plays and hurt you.
Would think we will use a lot of PA against them since we have such a good running attack that they will key on.
assuming Gattis is still here by the time we play that game I believe he will have a solid game plan in place to move the ball.
December 10th, 2021 at 2:08 AM ^
I'm gonna disagree that we don't have weapons like Bama's - and it's something I've been beating the drum about for awhile now - but Michigan they just didn't really utilize them much til the past few games.
One is Roman Wilson - if you believe things like SPARQ scores are indicative of anything, his was equivalent to guys like osu's GWilson, JSN or erstwhile buckeye Jameson. Had Roman put up testing numbers like he did playing for a HS in Fla or Texas, rather than Hawaii, we'd have been screaming for Gattis to get him more involved for months!
And obviously we all know what a threat Donovan is! If they were determined to find ways to get him the ball vs tough opponents, not just Maryland, he'd be such a weapon - and vs UGa they need to be!
Looking forward to seeing how they handle the vaunted UGa D!
December 10th, 2021 at 4:27 AM ^
Just purely based on getting open, I'd add All and Johnson to that mix.
December 10th, 2021 at 7:45 AM ^
well he has had a cast on his wrist so that is why they weren't using him more
he has been explosive all year, hard to believe he only has 3 TDs all season.
December 10th, 2021 at 9:27 AM ^
I completely agree that the WR group, along with Edwards and Corum, have plenty of 'SEC speed' and can outrun plenty of DB's - including UGA's 4/5-star guys. However, they had to learn to be WRs through the season. When Bell went down, Johnson became the defacto #1 and elder statesman on the field. He had ~20 catches in his career at the time. Wilson didn't know how to run routes and couldn't block me. Sainristil could block and run a decent route, but wasn't very reliable. Anthony and Edwards couldn't get on the field because they didn't know any plays or how to run routes. And the guy throwing the ball was a first time starter himself!
These guys have all improved through the season. CJ is only a couple of drops/game away from being the clear #1. Wilson has become a reliable threat on every play that can outrun defenses and block passably well. Sainristil has blossomed into a nice possession receiver whose speed is deceiving. Anthony is breaking out - great hands, good routes, and blazingly fast. Edwards... We know that story!
The numbers for all these guys are pedestrian, even if Edwards has jumped off the screen the last few games. None of them present a 'target' for a defense. But every single one of them can beat you deep with ease if you turn your back for just a moment.
Michigan is sporting the most diverse offense I've seen from a college team in many, many years. And I have a dollar that says Georgia is going to key all-in on stopping only a fraction of it. Haskins will have to work for his yards...
December 10th, 2021 at 11:41 AM ^
Love the line about 'diversity,' though I don't think it's perfect--and I don't know how to phrase it myself.
It's not just that there are many guys with different talents, it's that there are many reliable threats, and defending all of them at once on any given play doesn't seem plausible with Georgia's secondary.
December 9th, 2021 at 9:30 PM ^
I think if everything happens the way you are saying, Michigan wins by at least 2 scores. I get it, UGA is good, but we put up 38 points on a team with an equal/better run defense, and that was on the road, when we likely weren’t as efficient, as explosive in the passing game, we had not unleashed all of our TE’s, Edwards, Andrel Anthony, and we were also not battle tested as we are now when we played Wisconsin.
Again, if Michigan keeps UGA from big plays, makes big plays of their own, and doesn’t turn the ball over they win more like 38-17 again, not just 24-20.
Needing a “perfect game” was a myth vs. OSU, and it’s a myth here. We need to play very good, and I am confident they will.
December 9th, 2021 at 9:55 PM ^
Wisconsin’s run D is very strong, but it is not better than Georgia’s. No way. I watched them quite a bit this year and they’re for real.
December 9th, 2021 at 10:51 PM ^
I said run defense…not athletes, stars, or overall defense. Wisconsin was solid as a rock in their assignments and very talented in their own right, and despite that Michigan had about the most effective 2.5 yards/carry ive ever witnessed. I believe Michigan can gas these guys by the 4th quarter. We are a better team now than we were then.
December 10th, 2021 at 2:11 PM ^
I know you did, and that is why I said it too. Specifically, UGa's run defense >> Wisky's run defense. Not just stars ... productivity / efficacy / impact.
December 9th, 2021 at 10:18 PM ^
Wisconsin has an excellent run defense, but in a different way than Georgia. Wisconsin's front is experienced and assignment sound. Georgia starts a gaggle of Bigfoot on their defensive line. Perhaps Michigan can find some way to exploit that, but they have not run into a run defense that is excellent the way that Georgia is excellent.
December 9th, 2021 at 10:47 PM ^
And behind that DL are LBs that run like the wind.
December 9th, 2021 at 10:56 PM ^
Assignment sound is not some small thing. And Wisconsin’s guys had plenty of football speed and were incredibly quick to fill every gap, and let’s not act as of they aren’t D1 athletes as well. Georgia is certainly a better overall team, but I do t believe they are going to be harder to gain rushing yard against than UW
December 9th, 2021 at 9:44 PM ^
cade (and others) have hit some deep throws the past few weeks. this wasn't happening early in the year; overthrows and throws out of bounds were the norm. hit a couple this game and i think we win.
December 9th, 2021 at 9:48 PM ^
I may misremember this, but weren’t seven of George’s points against Clemson a defensive score?
December 9th, 2021 at 10:11 PM ^
You're not misremembering. But looking at just how bad Clemson's offense is, they're lucky it wasn't more than 7. Holy shit Clemson's offense was bad. Like, 14 points against Georgia Tech level of bad.
December 9th, 2021 at 10:45 PM ^
We have the Groza, Lombardi, and Broyles winners. They got this guy.
We're gonna win.
December 9th, 2021 at 11:15 PM ^
This would be the game for breaking all tendencies. Get Anthony and Wilson the ball in space. Unleash the flea flickers. Run Haskins and Corum into #99 at your peril.
December 9th, 2021 at 11:25 PM ^
I think JJ McCarthy is going to play a big role in this game
December 9th, 2021 at 11:36 PM ^
Wishbone RPO.
December 9th, 2021 at 11:32 PM ^
Just like against OSU, what happens in the red zone will be the deciding factor. They’re going to come out to prove a point they an shut down our run game, they’ll be susceptible early to the HB pass or flea flicker
December 10th, 2021 at 12:52 AM ^
With the games that Gattis & MacDonald have called/schemed up in the past 2 months and the culture Jim has built, there is no doubt we have the better coaching staff. I would venture to say it is by a significant margin.
If we jump on them early, I think it’s game over. More than it was vs even OSU. The fact of the matter is we have recently beat a team that across the board is more talented than UGA. And we did that decisively.
If we get ourselves in a situation where Georgia needs Bennett to beat us, we are in good shape. If we can establish some passing game early, that opens up the best backfield in the nation. If Stroud and 3 first round WRs and 2 first round Tackles couldn’t come from behind vs us, then this team won’t.
I don’t know guys, but I’m starting to think this team may just go all the way and win it all.
December 10th, 2021 at 5:52 AM ^
I almost got punched by a coworker in 2014 when I told him I didn’t think OSU had a chance in hell against Bama. I honestly didn’t see it. OSU was red hot and kicked ass and took names. Sounds familiar.
December 10th, 2021 at 5:25 AM ^
I say flip a coin. Georgias only played 1 team as good, or better than Michigan (Bama) and got trucked. Michigan has only played 1 team with a D equal to Georgia (Wisconsin) who essentially had no offense. I’m not in the camp that we should win and don’t believe the hype that Georgia’s gonna roll us. A blow out either way or a nail biting defensive style of tressel/Harbaugh ball is what I expect. Flip a coin.
December 10th, 2021 at 8:00 AM ^
agree, we don't have the type of team to blow out any of the final teams,
we CAN beat any of them if we play it right but it will be a close game vs GA
Michigan 27-19
December 10th, 2021 at 8:02 AM ^
Harbaugh has found a way to run the ball well against Bama and Florida in the past. I think he'll be able to scheme this one just fine based on our offensive line and talent at rb.
December 10th, 2021 at 8:19 AM ^
Who, how, what, why, when and where. I love going through a good statistical analysis. However, statistics only tell you what happened. Can the coaching staff figure out how to accentuate the good and mitigate the bad-relative to the success and failure of the previous opponents??? I think our staff is up top the task.
December 10th, 2021 at 9:03 AM ^
Georgia's pass defense looked bad against Bama, middle of the field was open all night for the taking. Bama's protection was just good enough for them to execute against it. If Mich can replicate this then it will be a long night for Georgia.