Dave Brandon's Game Plan
Dave Brandon has been asked repeatedly about Rich Rodriguez’s status. He has given the same answer consistently: “I will evaluate the program after the bowl game.”
I cannot recall the last time a college football coach was fired after his bowl game. It has probably happened, but it is very rare. There are only 4-5 weeks between the bowl season and national signing day. That is too little time for a new coach to fill any holes in the class, to re-recruit the existing commits, and to replace any who bail out. Generally, if the coach is going to be fired, it is right after the regular season.
In the meantime, leaving Rodriguez’s status unclear makes it difficult to land any uncommitted recruits who are still considering Michigan, and it increases the likelihood that existing commits might waver. I cannot imagine that Brandon does not know this.
It therefore seems that the time to make a decision about Rodriguez is now. If Brandon wants him back in 2011, go ahead and say so. That, at least, will shore up the recruiting class. Other decisions (e.g., defensive coordinator) can wait. If he does not want Rodriguez back, fire him now, and get a replacement on board for the final two months of the recruiting season.
One scenario floating around the various message boards, is this: Brandon has already decided to fire Rodriguez, but he is waiting to make an announcement until he has a replacement lined up. That scenario also gives him the wiggle room to retain Rodriguez for another year if the coach he wants turns out to be unavailable.
The longer Brandon goes without explicitly saying that Rodriguez will be back, the more gossip there will be about his demise. Brandon must realize how poisonous these rumors are. If he does nothing to dispel them, you have to assume that he is quietly looking elsewhere. There is otherwise no good reason to wait.
November 28th, 2010 at 2:31 PM ^
DB know you are stealing shit from his desk?
November 28th, 2010 at 2:33 PM ^
We probably needed another thread about this.
November 28th, 2010 at 2:34 PM ^
I always thought that was Dwayne Johnson, I guess I can see how I was mistaken by the resemblance though.
November 28th, 2010 at 2:39 PM ^
This makes a little sense. On the other hand if it gets out he's looking he looks like a douchebag. Brandon has given no indication he is that.
Brandon gets hired, has chance to bounce "bad seed" RR with allegations swirling. Chooses not to and gives him public support.
Brandon goes around talking up the" MGOBLOG decimated defense meme" to everyone all year long.
Brandon gets Michigan in high profile games to promote the brand at night in 2011 and against Alabama in 12. I don't think he made these with the idea he'd have to fire RR and have a potential embarrassment with another transition.
Specifically says he won't fire RR until after bowl game.
All tea leaves point to retention. Despite the rumors Brandon will not just hire the womanizing, brash, boozing Jimbo Harbaugh without vetting him fully and looking at all the other candidates available.
November 28th, 2010 at 2:51 PM ^
Odds much higher Brandon has decided to retain.
Gotta cure myself of responding to each of these posts, though. Probably time to take a few weeks off.
November 28th, 2010 at 6:02 PM ^
I just don't think that the odds are mucher higher to retain. If that was the case, DB would have indicated more concrete support by now. It definitely seems to me that he's hedging his bets. Waiting five weeks to make a decision (either way) seems to be pretty unprecedented.
November 28th, 2010 at 6:20 PM ^
up. But there's also a chance the word has quietly gone out to recruits that RR's on board for at least one more. The 'sunk costs' and young team arguments are what would sway me, but that's just me.
November 28th, 2010 at 4:08 PM ^
that the night game and Bama game were "arranged" when there was a little more positive vibe around the state of the program.....I am just sayin.....the reasoning he had back then, may not be the same as the reasoning or facts he has in hand now....
November 28th, 2010 at 2:43 PM ^
Glad to meet you Marc Shepherd from NY, NY
November 28th, 2010 at 3:36 PM ^
Okay, that was hysterical.
November 28th, 2010 at 2:45 PM ^
November 28th, 2010 at 2:48 PM ^
"I cannot recall the last time a college football coach was fired after his bowl game."
-In 2001, Ohio State fired John Cooper after a bowl loss to South Carolina that followed a two-game losing streak to Michigan. OSU had recovered from a losing season in 1999, but in 2000 lost a late lead to Big Ten champ Purdue and then gave up 38 points at home to Meeechigan. We know what happened after that.
-In 1998, Washington AD Barbara Hedges fired Jim Lambright after a non-competitive loss to Air Force in the Aloha Bowl.
JL had not sustained the top-five level of the program that Don James left him in the wake of resignation over the Billy Joe Hobert loan scandal, and his team had been beset by minor scandals and lack of discipline for years (the Huskies' starting WR missed the team plane to Hawai'i and had to pay for his own transportation to the bowl game.) Still, Lambright had done nothing seriously derelict and deserved a better shot than she gave him.
Hedges hired Rick Neuheisel, who brought a Rose Bowl win in 2000 but cheated and started the decay of the program that stays to this day. Interestingly, Rick coached Colorado against Oregon in the Hawai'i Bowl the day before Lambright's last game, and Colorado, AF and Oregon were all on the Huskies' schedule the next season. (Rick beat his old team for his first victory at UW.)
November 28th, 2010 at 2:50 PM ^
Coaches are not often fired after their bowl game
November 28th, 2010 at 3:33 PM ^
would be correct.
November 28th, 2010 at 2:50 PM ^
the longer DB waits to publicly announce anything, the higher the chances are that RR returns next year.
November 28th, 2010 at 2:56 PM ^
If Dave Brandon knew without a doubt that he would be back, don't you think that the best way to handle it is to go out and say definitively "Rich Rodriguez will be back"? I'm not saying he'll be fired, but I think he's leaving open the possibility.
November 28th, 2010 at 3:07 PM ^
This is the only reason I'm not convinced he's back.
November 28th, 2010 at 3:46 PM ^
How do you know he hasn't told RR, and hasn't told michigan future possible recruits?
Just cause he hasn't blasted the media with the bombshell that RR is staying, doesn't mean shit really
November 28th, 2010 at 8:16 PM ^
Nobody can keep secrets like that. You really think a bunch of teenagers wouldn't immediately be texting friends. If DB had told someone, we'd hear it.
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<br>And why would tell them in secret? There'd be no reason to keep it secret.
November 28th, 2010 at 8:19 PM ^
Then he's totally playing into the media bullshit, and effectively rewarding their behavior and voracious apetite for scandal. It's entirely possible he wants to do this 100% on his own terms, and make them all look bad in the process. I hope this is the case.
November 28th, 2010 at 2:50 PM ^
I cannot recall the last time a college football coach was fired after his bowl game.
Don't know the last time, but you don't have to go back that far or even go outside the Michigan-OSU rivalry to find one: How about John Cooper, who was fired after the 2000 Outback Bowl?
That seemed to work out OK for OSU.
November 28th, 2010 at 5:42 PM ^
slugged a player at a bowl game....out immediately.
November 28th, 2010 at 2:52 PM ^
So there's one recent example. And THAT turned out really well for the Gophers, didn't it?
In any event, a lot of us thought 7-5, maybe 8-4 if they caught a break, was reasonable at the beginning of the season. Hey, that's where we are. three of our losses are to 1-loss teams. Iowa had yet to free-fall when we lost to them. And Penn State, at their place, at night.... that's the closest to an unacceptable loss we have.
Now the way it's gone down is difficult to stomach, especially with the hot start, but the actual record is right where thoughtful people hoped it would be back in late August. Progress, a winning season, a bowl game, another year of experience for a young team.
November 28th, 2010 at 4:43 PM ^
You friction idiot
November 29th, 2010 at 11:42 AM ^
Some tips for the next time you have insight you wish to share with the wider world:
- Speak (type) more slowly. Get those thoughts out there in an orderly way!
- Use shorter, easier to spell words. Everyone has a natural limit. Don't exceed yours!
- Before you hit 'Save', read what you did there. Make sure it really represents the SpreadGuru and contributes to the discussion!
On behalf of the rest of MGoWorld, thanks for taking the time to read and follow these simple guidelines!
Your friction buddy,
Nothsa
November 28th, 2010 at 3:01 PM ^
That is a very good point. DB has to know that the future of this program also rests with good recruiting and program stability will affect recruiting. I think a decision will be made pretty soon. If not, wash-rinse-repeat, 2008 here we come.
November 28th, 2010 at 3:21 PM ^
Hiring Jim Harbaugh may actually give our recruiting a boost. We may pick up some of his recruits, plust get Zettel and Frost, and who knows who else? Dee Hart already said he is in no matter what. Ya some may waiver but....
As far as repeating 20008, I don't think so. We have enough talent in place to adjust to any system. As said in so many posts, the next guy or the current guy should win 9 games next year!
November 28th, 2010 at 4:54 PM ^
I am not questioning the veracity of this statement, I was just wondering if you could provide a link which shows this because I was not aware that he had made a definitive statement like that. I was under the, apparently incorrect, impression that Dee Hart would likely look elsewhere if RR was fired.
November 28th, 2010 at 5:15 PM ^
Harbaugh and RR run two totally different systems and transfers at the skill positions would be highly likely and everyone here knows it. Plus, the defense is a few generations away from being decent under any coach. But, I agree with you on the recruiting. Harbaugh might actually be able to bring in some feel good blue chips.
November 28th, 2010 at 7:24 PM ^
Harbaugh ran a spread when he coached at USD. At Stanford he's run a pro-style. Whether he'd run that at Michigan is anyone's guess. It may be that - like his mentor - he adapts his offense to the players he has.
November 28th, 2010 at 3:05 PM ^
I thought RR's buyout went down on 12/1/10. I'm now hearing that it goes down on 1/1/11. If that's the case, that may explain Brandon's reticence to make any major announcements. Or, it may simply be that Brandon's still thinking about things and wants to talk with Rodriguez without all the media swirl and alumni angst -- let's face it, at least for awhile, things will calm down in about a week.
November 28th, 2010 at 6:58 PM ^
The buyout is $4 million, but drops to $2.5 million after January 1 of the 4th year of the contact.
Sorry for the freep link, but this where I found it.
http://www.freep.com/article/20101105/SPORTS06/11050366/How-coach-Rodriguez-s-contract-works
November 28th, 2010 at 3:28 PM ^
RR is out and Harbaugh is in; we are not waiting for our bowl game, but for Stanford's. Unlike RR, Harbaugh probably wants to coach his team in its BCS game. BOOK IT
November 28th, 2010 at 3:48 PM ^
ill book that you are completely wrong, ill check back with you in a month
November 28th, 2010 at 3:29 PM ^
This makes perfect sense. It's the only scenario that makes sense.
People actually believe DB hasn't come to a decision yet? Are you kidding? The season is over (except for the Whatever Bowl). He has all the info. He's been there every step of the way. All this "I'll review this at the appropriate time" stuff is exactly what CEOs and public-officials say; it gives the appearance of due diligence, and buy them time. If the man doesn't have a strong opinion by this point, he's an idiot. And he's not an idiot.
If he were sure about keeping RR, he'd say so already. There's absolutely no reason why he wouldn't or shouldn't; it would help everyone. Instead, he's leaving RR (and players, fans, recruits) flapping in the wind. This is bad for everyone. Destabilizing. Divisive. I'm sure he wants this over asap.
So why would he do this? Because, yes, he's testing the waters. Exploring options. Doing exactly what his predecessors as AD failed to do. Brandon is too smart to be seen as the guy who gets turned down. He's doing what presidents do with veep candidates.
What isn't clear is whether he has decided to nix RR no matter what. Maybe he's just seeing what's out there, and will keep RR unless he lands a better fish. If he finds his guy, he'll say, "I planned to wait till January, but the opportunity presented itself, and I couldn't pass it up." Or he'll just delay announcing the change till after the bowls.
He's not putting this off till January. This is the biggest decision he'll ever make as AD. I'm sure it's the only thing he's dealing with. He's known to be an incredibly thorough, prepared, and forward-thinking executive. A good CEO has to be. DB knows exactly what he wants.
November 28th, 2010 at 3:40 PM ^
It's pretty much Harbaugh or Bust...just like three years ago when it was Les Miles or Bust, when we were left scrambling to find a coach. Or Notre Dame in 2004, when they planned to get Urban Meyer and were left scrambling when he hopped to Florida.
If he's seriously considering a change, without a doubt DB has his people talking to Jim Harbaugh's people to find out what it would take to get him to AA. Plausibly deniable but still doing his diligence.
November 28th, 2010 at 3:51 PM ^
...is Shannon's firing at Miami. I can't believe that they haven't tried to open some backchannels to Harbaugh.
The X-factors here are the depth of Harbaugh's love for Michigan and the size of the money truck Miami may roll out of Coral Gables. No one can know what JH and the folks running Miami are thinking, but I've got to imagine that he's on their radar.
Harbaugh could be a moot topic, depending on what Miami does and how he responsds to any overtures they might make.
November 28th, 2010 at 4:47 PM ^
I would guess Miami (YTM) is down the list for Jim Harbaugh. He's going to be able to entertain offers from multiple NFL franchises, including one in his backyard where he wouldn't have to move. He may also field whispers from his alma mater Michigan. I know they could pry him with money, but I would just be really surprised if they had something intangible to offer the other more attractive places don't.
November 28th, 2010 at 5:03 PM ^
Miami would is definatly interested. But this money truck you speak of is non-existant..From what I have heard the U does not have a whole lot of money to spend on their new HC
Besides the U is not really an attractive job right now. They play in a pro stadium 20 miles from campus and they dont sell out.
November 28th, 2010 at 10:47 PM ^
...that you are correct about the money truck's non-existance.
Totally agree that the U is not a great football coaching job right now. I was hoping that the blowout loss to Virginia in their final game prior to the demolition of their stadium would drive a stake through the heart of "Dis U," but Shannon did a fair job of keeping Miami relevant after those massive program downgrades.
November 28th, 2010 at 3:48 PM ^
There's no way he waits until after the bowl game to make and announce his decision. I know that he has said that, but he would be stupid not to say that. My guess is that he's talking with Harbaugh today and we will know whether RR is staying or not later this week. Probably Wednesday or Thursday.
Like the OP said, you cannot have a month of negative recruiting, and all of the media questioning everything. It would hurt the program even more. Either cut bait now, or say RR is staying and let's move on.
It will happen this week. Gauransheed!
November 28th, 2010 at 3:52 PM ^
maybe we should save the "he's damaging the michigan brand the longer this goes" talk until more than 24 hours have passed.
November 28th, 2010 at 4:01 PM ^
I clicked thinking it would maybe be a hilarious joke post or something even slightly different from everything else we've seen posted in the last two days.
It wasn't.
November 28th, 2010 at 4:07 PM ^
My thoughts on this are that RR is the coach for the 2011 season. There will probably be a very clear cut list of goals to be achieved, which would probably be partially made public, ie; win the division or something to that effect. Miami did that to Coker a few years ago. I personally think that DB already has someone in his backpocket, only a fool thinks he has not been making phone calls already to test the waters.
November 28th, 2010 at 6:12 PM ^
This is not a pro or anti RR statement, just throwing out a few issues.
If RR were to go the whole staff is going also with the possible exception of Fred Jackson. The later it happens the harder it would get to build a new staff. Remember RR couldn't get Casteel to come and that cost him dearly. If we bring in Harbaugh can he bring assistant coaches from Stanford? I have no idea but someone better have a plan.
If RR goes be at least prepared for major defections from this recruiting class plus possible transfers. The freshmen and sophomores we have will be more inclined to transfer than if they were upperclassmen. Take a good look at the roster and consider what it could look like next September.
It isn't just a case of getting a new head coach like it might be in the NFL. A lot of other names are going to change outside of your control.
November 28th, 2010 at 8:08 PM ^
True. But you discount the fact that, while we'd like lose some commits, we'd likely gain others. Harbaugh has consistently lured higher-rated players than RR has. He's a magnet. And an incoming star coach tends to attract more bees than a hot-seat coach who could be out in a year. With a new coach would come new enthusiasm.
November 28th, 2010 at 8:37 PM ^
I didn't discount it - just said that we could lose some, and if this happens after the bowl it is going to be late to attract many new recruits. The sooner something happens the better. If Harbaugh comes I hope he can switch some in. My only point is if he doesn't we could be in a tough position next year.
November 28th, 2010 at 6:18 PM ^
He may resign next week and go back to WVU? Since Steward will be retiring.
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<br>DB has made his decision. Whatever decision it is, I will support. In DB I trust!