Comparing Michigan's 2022 and 2021 defense through 5 games
After reading a lot of very heated posts in the aftermath of the Iowa game, I thought I would look back at our defense at this point last season to get a comparison for this year's defense. I looked at ten stats as comparative data points for the two units and surprisingly I found that this year's defense has outperformed last year's defense in every statistic examined through 5 games.
A couple of caveats: (1) Last year's schedule is probably a little tougher through 5 games than this year's schedule (although I do not think there is a huge difference after 5 games between last year' schedule and this year's schedule); (2) 5 games is still a relatively small sample (e.g. CSU sack total is distorting are number pretty significantly).
Anyway lets take a look.
2021
Points Per Game allowed: 12.8
Yards Per Play allowed: 4.48
Yards Per Game allowed: 285.8
Rush yards per carry allowed: 3.31
Rush yards per game allowed: 115.2
Yards per attempt allowed: 5.88
Pass yard per pass allowed: 170.6
Sacks: 13
Turnovers forced: 4
3rd down conversion % allowed: 35%
2022
Points Per Game allowed: 11.6
Yards Per Play allowed: 4.08
Yards Per Game allowed: 252
Rush yards per carry allowed: 2.91
Rush yards per game allowed: 94.2
Yards per attempt allowed: 5.37
Pass yard per pass allowed: 157.8
Sacks: 15
Turnovers forced: 6
3rd down conversion % allowed: 30.4%
Obviously last year's defense had some pretty talented players on it and made some huge plays in big games when called upon, but what I have seen this year leads me to believe by the end of the season that this defense can be as good as last year's defense, even if the top end of the defense is less talented. The secondary is clearly better than last year's was at this point, and the interior of the defensive line is elite at stopping the run. Even without much pass rush and mediocre linebacker play, there is only one game that is left on the schedule where the team is built to exploit us. Hopefully by Ohio State the team has a plan to minimize those weaknesses and stifle a passing game that has not seen a secondary on our level.
October 2nd, 2022 at 2:24 PM ^
love it, but missing one critical difference: strength of schedule.
we have a good D that is getting better. i don't believe we are at or will be as good as last year's edition. hopefully i am dead-wrong on that prediction.
October 2nd, 2022 at 2:33 PM ^
XM I am sure you can agree that we have some very interesting parts. This defense might not be as memorable, and it isn't every year we can expect to have two first rounders on the line, but this year's line has me very excited. It's raw, but there is some amazing athleticism.
McDonald's problem was too much talent on the edge and Dax-freaking-Hill. He had to let them go and forego some of his better ameba schemes. Minter has the opposite opportunity, too many options with hugely variant upsides, but he has to continue to scheme them into a cohesive front and cover up some deficiencies.
October 2nd, 2022 at 2:37 PM ^
Yeah between Iowa, UConn and Colorado State, we’ve played 3 of the 7 worst offenses in terms of yards per game in the country. CSU is dead last and Iowa is 2nd worst. Hawaii also checks in at 114th out of 131 teams.
HUGE caveat with those statistics when our opponents look like that.
October 2nd, 2022 at 3:54 PM ^
Or maybe their offenses are so bad because they have had to play Michigan's defense! /s
October 6th, 2022 at 2:30 PM ^
If those 3 played great against anyone else I might buy this argument. Unfortunately they’re 3 of the 10 worst teams because they’re consistently bad. No way to spin it.
Maryland is a legit offense and frankly the only decent O we’ve seen. We did fairly well against them, a few sloppy moments but overall solid. PSU/OSU are the only real tests left.
October 2nd, 2022 at 3:23 PM ^
I just wake up every day and thank Baby Jesus for DJ Turner. Talk about a hero coming out of nowhere. It was supposed to be the doldrums last year and this year due to poor recruiting. But DJ is a baller. And a special thanks to the holy ghost for the athleticism of Sanristril. Learning fast and already showing some Dax Hill abilities in certain areas.
October 2nd, 2022 at 4:32 PM ^
Amen
October 2nd, 2022 at 6:20 PM ^
I'll pass your sentiments along ;)
October 2nd, 2022 at 4:42 PM ^
Sp+ offensive rankings for 2021 vs 2022 below. Note that the 2022 numbers don’t take into account this weekend yet and 2021 are for the whole season. Not the best comparison point but I wanted to respond to the sos arguments. The offenses we played last year were also not particularly good. This year the offenses we have faced have been truly horrible outside of maryland.
However I think many people are misremembering how good the defense was last year. It was a good defense that had some holes much like this one. I think that at the end of the season our fancy stats will be better or about the same as last year.
2021
western Michigan: 40
Washington: 96
NIU: 66
rutgers: 117
wisconsin: 60
2022
CSU: 121
hawaii: 122
Uconn: 127
maryland: 20
iowa: 95
October 2nd, 2022 at 5:29 PM ^
The schedule comparison numbers above help begin to paint a clearer picture. I agree that there are positive signs with this years defense, but I feel like we are still in a "wait and see mode" based upon the 2022 offenses we have faced.
October 2nd, 2022 at 5:56 PM ^
thanks for the numbers. by my rough math we played the #75 offense (average) through the first 5 games last season, and the #97 this year.
October 3rd, 2022 at 11:03 AM ^
Here are some more numbers:
UM SOS 2021 - #3
UM SOS 2022 - #36
https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/ranking/schedule-strength-by-other?date=2022-01-11
October 2nd, 2022 at 6:22 PM ^
My biggest takeaway is Maryland at 20. (Also last year’s WMU at 40?)
I’m not sure how much of a difference there is beyond 60 or so - NIU seemed terrible - but there is a difference between top 30 and top 60. Maryland was a legit test and our D was solid, especially after the first quarter.
October 2nd, 2022 at 6:11 PM ^
It is true SOS is weaker this year but …. The main theme going into the season was that the talented offense would need to carry the defense a bit while it improved over the course of the season. I think that remains true and I think the defense is growing and developing much like last years did.
October 2nd, 2022 at 6:59 PM ^
I understand the schedule caveat, but both UW offenses we played last year were very bad, and then our other opponents were pretty easy.
Maryland is better than any offense we played thru the first 5 games last year
October 2nd, 2022 at 2:25 PM ^
For those with memory like mine...
2021 First five games
Western Michigan
Washington
NIU
Rutgers
Wisconsin
October 2nd, 2022 at 2:30 PM ^
Rutgers 2021 was worse than Maryland 2022
Wisconsin 2021 was a bit better than Iowa 2022
all three of the non-cons in ‘21were significantly better than this year.
too much noise to draw much conclusion. That said we need the defense for basically two more games this year. PSU and OSU. so as long as they don’t give up anything stupid in the other games and let the Offense do it’s job, that’s all that really matter in this weak B1G
October 2nd, 2022 at 2:48 PM ^
Somewhat better. I was ready to open up on how bad Michigan’s first three opponents are, and that’s not wrong. But those were bad teams. Washington’s offense was *putrid*. I think Maryland is the best offense of any of the ten teams by a significant margin.
October 2nd, 2022 at 3:26 PM ^
Don’t disagree, but if we’re looking at combined stats for 5 games does Maryland move the needle that much? The D last year was also a work in progress at this stage and improved by years end. They are probably comparable at this stage, just hard to say with any certainty. How much worse were Hawaii/CSU than say Western? Does the fact that this year’s non-con games were laughable blowouts where we allowed late yards because we were playing walk ons for entire quarters skew it as well? Since we can’t compare apples to apples just seems like the most relevant data we have on the D is that Maryland was good-ish and we beat them. They may be comparable to PSU actually
October 2nd, 2022 at 2:25 PM ^
Interesting numbers even with the slightly weaker schedule. Encouraging too, as Maryland is improved, and Iowa at Kinnick still Iowa. Thanks for posting this.
October 2nd, 2022 at 2:25 PM ^
Thanks for the detailed analysis, my son and I talk college football every Sunday. Without the benefit of this data, we came to the conclusion that both the offense and defense are ahead of last years team at this stage of the year. Thanks for the analysis
October 2nd, 2022 at 2:26 PM ^
The disruption that Hutch and Ojabo caused on a consistent basis is missed this year. Last season we rushed four and had more QB hits and hurries than this season while rushing four. This is the Hutch/Ojabo drop off. Of course, this statement is not based on statistics, just my eye test. But, the defense this season is doing a better job stopping up the middle on inside runs. Jesse Minter and staff will get better. We'll see how it goes against the top end of the B1G.
October 2nd, 2022 at 2:44 PM ^
It's unlikely we'll see another Hutch and Ojabo pairing, so it's good to see the D is doing pretty well without "stars."
October 2nd, 2022 at 3:24 PM ^
Maybe not that good but since Harbaugh has been here our EDGE players have included Chris Wormley, Taco Charlton, Rashan Gary, Chase Winovich, Kwity Paye, Josh Uche Hutchinson, and Ojabo. It has probably been our most consistently elite position. Morris looks pretty good but we need someone to emerge as a consistent threat opposite of him.
October 2nd, 2022 at 5:37 PM ^
Moore is going to be a 1st rounder but not sure he’s going to get where Michigan needs him this year. Best bet is Anoma picks up the defense and really comes on late. He’s got elite athleticism and in passing situations he’s done well so far for Michigan.
October 2nd, 2022 at 2:27 PM ^
Also Maryland this year may be better than any of our competition through five games last year though yeah the non conference is not comparable.
October 2nd, 2022 at 2:33 PM ^
Good point about Maryland. They are considered top end of the B1G this season on offense. The defense did OK in that game but there is certainly room for improvement.
October 2nd, 2022 at 7:17 PM ^
Looking at all 5 games played between both seasons, I think Maryland is the best team played (Wisconsin last year is the other contender, but their offense is worse than Maryland's defense in my opinion). Maryland is the best offense of the 10 teams, and Iowa this year the best defense.
So while our SOS this year is worse overall, I think us handling business this year is more impressive than last year. W @ Kinnick > W @ Camp Randall and Maryland > Wisconsin overall
October 2nd, 2022 at 2:29 PM ^
Interesting. Last year we started WMU, Washington, Northern Illinois, Rutgers, Wisconsin. Preseason certainly easier this year -- by definition since we played three of the five worst teams in the country. I'd argue that last year's Rutger/Wiscy are not quite as good at this year's Maryland/Iowa, although it's close b/c of Iowa's putrid offense. Certainly room for the defense to grow, and they could be really good if they can start getting to the passer more regularly. Yes, sacks are up this year, but we got 6-7 against Hawai'i.
October 2nd, 2022 at 3:07 PM ^
What if we played Fresno St instead of Uconn? Would we feel better? Because yeah go Huskies!
October 2nd, 2022 at 2:41 PM ^
Other than Maryland, our opponents have been about as good at offense as Stephen Hawking was at arm wrestling.
October 2nd, 2022 at 2:42 PM ^
Good stats. Hopefully this year's defense can hold OSU to 27 too.
October 2nd, 2022 at 5:39 PM ^
I’ve gone into the OSU game the last 5 years assuming it would take 40 to win it. I’m going to say that’s the case again this year. The offense will need to put up 40+ to win.
October 2nd, 2022 at 2:48 PM ^
If the linebackers catch up we will have a very very solid defense down the stretch…they really are missing Nikai.
October 2nd, 2022 at 2:52 PM ^
Anything analyzed from the 2021 season needs to reflect the toxic fanbase that wanted Harbaugh gone... Each win from last season was a treasure.
So, add those tainted glasses. Enjoy each game for what it is.
October 2nd, 2022 at 2:55 PM ^
What does the fanbase have to do with the team's on-field performance?
October 2nd, 2022 at 5:59 PM ^
A lot. Because there were a lot of folks rooting AGAINST Michigan, including Michigan "fans"... I remember the lot of you. So this time last year, people were puzzled because we were winning when they wanted us to lose so they could get Tom Allen or Matt Campbell...
October 2nd, 2022 at 2:53 PM ^
"After reading a lot of very heated posts in the aftermath of the Iowa game..."
I think the heated comments had more to do with the soft coverage and tightening of the offense that the early 4th quarter brought us. They seemed more aimed at the coaching staff's tendency to 'turtle' than the players - especially on the offensive side. I believe if the defense would have stayed focused and doing what they had been doing, the shutout would have happened. But the game was over at 20-0, there really was no way Iowa was going to catch up at that point. So the decision to back off and play out the win in a tough place to win was made, and we (most of us) didn't like it so much.
Had we kept doing what we had been doing and won 27-0 (or whatever), we'd all have felt very differently about it. But it's still a big win that delivered the very same results a bigger shutout would have delivered.
After all those words, I still would liked a bigger win!
October 2nd, 2022 at 3:15 PM ^
Fans watch and coaches coach for a reason. Coaches could give one shit about passing yardage or 13 point wins not being prettier 27 point wins. The coaches won the game when they went up 20-0. The ONLY thing that could lose that game would be reckless play calling. 97 was a snooze fest most of the season, 2021 was a snooze fest most of the season. 2007 was very spectacular and exciting.
October 2nd, 2022 at 3:09 PM ^
How much of these stats are inflated by playing three of the worst teams in FBS?
October 2nd, 2022 at 4:23 PM ^
I don't know but we also had bad games, relatively, against Washington last year and we had to sweat it out against Rutgers. Our offense may have helped, but our 1st stringers did not seem to play much this year compared to last year. There is that. I just think they are comparable in defense but the key is if we can stop OSU and keep our offense humming against PSU. If we can do that, this defense will be on par with last year even without two great Edge players.
October 2nd, 2022 at 3:12 PM ^
Our secondary suffocated Maryland's WRs and our DT room is deep.
The EDGE room is deep but weird. I think to get to the best level we need some combination of McGregor, Okie, and/Moore to start performing at a level where they can soak up most of Harrel's and Upshaw's snaps.
LB is a weakness. We need NHG back to lead the charge and Colson/Rolder to take the next step.
Overall it feels like a unit that will only get stronger as the season progresses.
October 2nd, 2022 at 3:21 PM ^
There are lies, damn lies, and statistics. My heart says I want this D to be better or even as good but my gut says not so fast my friend.
October 2nd, 2022 at 3:40 PM ^
My feeling is that, when all is said and done, this year's team will have a statistically better rush defense than last year's. Last year's defense will have a slightly better pass defense (the secondary is a wash, but last year's pass rush was better as we've seen mentioned countless times).
October 2nd, 2022 at 3:49 PM ^
Doesn't really mean much since the strength of schedule is so much worse this season.
October 2nd, 2022 at 3:54 PM ^
On one hand, they’ve played three truly awful teams and another bad offense in Iowa. On the other, they contained Maryland pretty well and Maryland looks like a good to very good offense. Too soon to tell, but there are encouraging signs.
October 2nd, 2022 at 4:15 PM ^
Username checks out
October 2nd, 2022 at 4:21 PM ^
The defensive line is deep with improving talent (Graham and Grant have a bright future inside). I think the pass rush will continue to get better. Linebacker depth a huge issue and Rod Moore was definitely a weak link according to Iowa. He maybe just had a bad game but it is something to watch. Secondary depth seems solid let's just recruit about 5 linebackers and if not, then why not?
October 2nd, 2022 at 4:32 PM ^
A very interesting comparison, and one I hadn't thought about. Variability of opponents aside, it shows that the defense is playing good team football.
Thanks for posting it!
October 2nd, 2022 at 4:53 PM ^
I think our pass rush will be fine. Morris and Okie are improving every game.