College Football Nerds UM-OSU Preview
College Football Nerds put up their preview of The Game earlier this morning.
Their model has it at 28-26 OSU. They each picked OSU to win by about 2 touchdowns (Daniel - 31-17; Josh 34-21) as they think OSU's defense is better than last year, they don't trust Michigan's offense in part since Corum won't be fully healthy and the way to beat OSU's D is through passing.
November 22nd, 2022 at 11:33 AM ^
One thing that concerned me was how poorly Michigan ran the ball after Corum left. With the kind of reputation the offensive line has developed I didn’t really think all of the running game was back dependent. There was no where to run in the second half.
November 22nd, 2022 at 11:37 AM ^
Illinois played to stop the run and some.of the play calls by our offensive coaches were just bad
November 22nd, 2022 at 11:40 AM ^
Such as?
November 22nd, 2022 at 12:03 PM ^
the play calls that told JJ to miss wide open receivers. definitely bad play calls.
November 22nd, 2022 at 12:13 PM ^
And any other play that didn't gain 5 yards. The second guessers always know what would have worked if only they could call the plays.
November 22nd, 2022 at 12:22 PM ^
Why run the ball again after a 1 yd gain on first down? I saw that kind of play call several times (I did not chart this) after Corum was out of the game. Not saying a passing play would have worked any better. There also was an RPO option. Yes, there were some very frustrating moments during the 3rd quarter when Michigan wasn't moving the ball very much.
November 22nd, 2022 at 12:39 PM ^
Running on 3rd and 22 comes to mind.
November 22nd, 2022 at 12:57 PM ^
Early in the second quarter of a 7-0 game when the best scenario for the opponent is to get a TO in scoring position? I'm not exactly miffed.
November 22nd, 2022 at 2:33 PM ^
How about just semi-miffed?
Or even slightly miffed?
November 22nd, 2022 at 5:05 PM ^
Isnt the best scenario for Michigan to score more TDs?
Its aggravating to think they are coaching to avoid something good happening for the opponent, in lieu of making something good happen for themselves.
November 22nd, 2022 at 12:53 PM ^
The Stokes dive through the middle on 3rd & 9 in the 4th quarter. It went nowhere, like many of the dives throughout the game. Maybe come up with something better on a 3rd & 9?
I'm not complaining about the conduct of the game - I don't think either the run game or pass attack was as bad as it looked. But you asked for an example, so I give you one...
I do believe that Illinois was a better opponent than we gave them credit for...
November 22nd, 2022 at 12:55 PM ^
That particular play was an outrage.
November 22nd, 2022 at 1:03 PM ^
Uh, which one was that? Just looking at the ESPN play-by-play, I've got CJ Stokes for 9 carries in the second half, almost all of which are in the third quarter, and the only third down run I have among those is a 3rd-and-medium that he actually converted. I'm not seeing a 3rd-and-long RB run in the fourth quarter.
There is such a run in the first half, but that's with Blake Corum on the plus side of the field, something Michigan has done before, a pretty clear effort to set up 4th-and-makeable with a decent gain (it was stuffed, but the idea has worked a lot this year).
November 22nd, 2022 at 1:26 PM ^
I think this is a losing battle. People just want to say whatever they want to say. Facts are not going to work.
November 22nd, 2022 at 1:57 PM ^
After giving it a second thought, I think it was a second down run on 2nd at 10 that got a yard. It was from under center if I recall. It just felt like setting a down on fire when literally every second and every play mattered.
November 22nd, 2022 at 2:22 PM ^
Going on memory, I'll cop to this as well. Sorry, I don't have the time or inclination to look up actual plays while at work. Suffice to say, there was a Stokes dive that went nowhere on a 2nd or 3rd down in the second half. Maybe not as egregious as I previously said, but not a good play call anyway...
November 22nd, 2022 at 2:33 PM ^
Play didn't work so it was a bad call. Yet the play callers are 11-0 on the season. Just too easy to say it was bad call after you watch it not work. Same play had picked up 26 yards and you would have thought it was a great call.
November 22nd, 2022 at 2:37 PM ^
People here are seriously overreacting to trivial chatter regarding play calling decisions. Why? Is anybody here calling for firings? There were some baffling play calls in the second half. Another one was the quick run on 3rd and 4 that resulted in a 4th down after getting the ball at midfield needing 1.5 first downs to kick the winning field goal. Another one was running a play with no timeouts and less than 20 seconds on the clock. The coaches made some very questionable play calling and game management decisions throughout the game. Life goes on.
November 22nd, 2022 at 2:35 PM ^
Yeah, maybe this one.
November 22nd, 2022 at 2:55 PM ^
Oh, was that the one where they got the playcall (which was a run) and Roman Wilson basically went “WTF WHY.” And Ronnie Bell had to drag him to his spot?
November 22nd, 2022 at 11:41 AM ^
Michigan once again didn't really gameplan for this opponent and didn't do much in the run game to counteract the fact that Illinois was selling out with Tom Allen levels of irresponsibility to stop the run. If we'd executed slightly better in the passing game (and run a couple fewer times), it's probably a comfortable win
November 22nd, 2022 at 1:00 PM ^
All we had to do was catch the two touchdown passes that JJ threw and hit our guys square in the hands...game over.
November 22nd, 2022 at 5:55 PM ^
Underrated comment here...
That Anthony drop was brutal, the Gash drop was probably a tug, the drop from Roman earlier in game.... cmon boys help a QB out.
November 22nd, 2022 at 12:06 PM ^
I thought one major positive was the RB usage in the passing game.. Thats something that will be huge, esp if Edwards is a go.. If NW can avg 4.1 yards , 226 yards. in a game where No one respected or feared the throw. ( 14 passing attempts for 80yards) I think we will be just fine.
November 22nd, 2022 at 12:25 PM ^
Corum and Edwards need to be better than 75% healthy for that to work. It is doable and Michigan took notice on NW did to the Buckeyes on the ground. This could have the markings of how well Michigan ran against Penn State. Let's hope that can happen.
November 22nd, 2022 at 1:56 PM ^
this. perhaps UFR charting will show otherwise, but watching in real time, it certainly seemed as though the coaches weren't doing anything different, despite Illinois' defense being called to stop the run. That the passing game wasn't hitting well only compounded the running issues.
November 22nd, 2022 at 3:54 PM ^
Last year, I thought M drew up fantastic offensive gameplans that were opponent-specific, or at least tweaked for their opponents. I haven't seen that consistently. This year's gameplanning has been inconsistent, as it was in 2019 and earlier.
I sure hope that's more due to "we're saving the good stuff for the playoff run" and not "this coaching staff isn't quite as good as gameplanning as last year's staff was."
November 22nd, 2022 at 7:54 PM ^
Disagree. This week was the only opponent it felt like the staff did not game plan for, and I can understand why. Their focus is where it should be.
November 22nd, 2022 at 11:39 AM ^
Illinois also proved that the Fancystats weren't exactly lying about how good their D was either. Plus it's not terribly surprising how well they played considering they practice against Chase Brown every day.
November 22nd, 2022 at 11:40 AM ^
Michigan was down to strings 3-5 at RB. And the guy that seems to be the best of those, CJ Stokes, is a freshman. I strongly, strongly suspect that he hasn't had reps in a lot of the more interesting running schemes Michigan has. My suspicion would mean that when he's in the game, there is a relatively limited catalogue of plays available, which would help explain why we also saw a lot of Dunlap and Gash.
In at least some cases where I was focusing on it, the OL was executing fine, but a combination of (relatively) inferior RB play and extra defenders kept the runs from being productive.
Michigan was running with one hand tied behind its back in the second half. And Illinois has a good run defense.
November 22nd, 2022 at 12:29 PM ^
Michigan played the whole 3rd quarter with one hand tied behind their back. It sure wasn't pretty.
When Chase Brown broke free for his second TD run, I was thinking Kenneth Walker dejavu.
November 22nd, 2022 at 3:33 PM ^
To add to that CJ Stokes was in on almost 100% running plays and almost opposite for Dunlop. That tell was bugging me watching from the stands. Gash seems to offer the most flexibility as far as play calls. The data might prove me wrong but watching live it appeared that way.
November 22nd, 2022 at 3:52 PM ^
In at least some cases where I was focusing on it, the OL was executing fine, but . . . extra defenders kept the runs from being productive.
Wouldn't running into boxes stacked with extra defenders qualify as a poor playcall?
November 22nd, 2022 at 6:03 PM ^
One of the sports talk guys put it the best way I have heard -- "they ran their game plan with their fourth-string guys. They didn't have another game plan."
At least, not one they were prepared to use.
It was definitely an NFL attitude on the part of Harbaugh and staff -- in the standings, it was a meaningless game, and Jim was certainly prepared to lose it to (a) hold out players and (b) not put much effort into the gameplan.
November 22nd, 2022 at 11:41 AM ^
Illinois seemed to have +1 dude in the box that we were content to run into often on 1st and 2nd downs for little-to-no gain. I think the offensive playcalling was pretty abysmal outside of a couple of drives, hopefully just keeping some things under wraps before this weekend.
November 22nd, 2022 at 12:02 PM ^
We were down to our 4th string running back against a very good run defense...
November 22nd, 2022 at 12:19 PM ^
It's not all RB dependent, but when you're down two starting OL and your RB is your 4th-stringer going against an above average defense, it doesn't seem all that surprising. The frustration for me was the lack of success through the air when we needed it.
November 22nd, 2022 at 1:02 PM ^
A couple years back I was talking football with a DII coach, at a social event. I was bitching about how Michigan's coaches would call a running play up the middle even after it was stuffed for a loss.... His reply was something along the lines of, 'the coaches probably saw something in the defense that made them believe the play was good, maybe a lineman missed his block, or just plain got beat, but doesn't usually do that. Sometimes the defense just makes a great play, doesn't mean you don't keep trying, especially when you've scouted the other team and game planned for them, when your running game is stronger than their run defense. Randy Johnson gave up hommers off a 100+mph fastball, but he didn't quit throwing them, they struck out more batters than gave up dingers to.'
I felt like a total doofus and i'm sure Coach was happy to give that explanation, knowing that fans who never coached have made similar complains against him and his play calling.
November 22nd, 2022 at 11:01 PM ^
I see very few talking about how Stokes didn’t play at all in the 4th….he was running pretty well right after Corum went out….we had 4th and 5th stringers going against a stacked box
November 22nd, 2022 at 11:33 AM ^
If the way through OSU's D is really to pass, I look forward to seeing JJ live up to last season's and this preseason's hype.
November 22nd, 2022 at 11:43 AM ^
Michigan is not going to beat Ohio State by passing the ball more than it runs. We need to be able to execute in the passing game, obviously, particularly if OSU stacks the box. But OSU would be delighted if we had JJ drop back over and over with their pass rush attacking the weakness of our OL, drop-back pass protection.
November 22nd, 2022 at 11:52 AM ^
Agreed. I'm not suggesting that we go away from the run game. But the hype has always been that he will take the offense to another level that Cade never could. I always assumed that this meant that it would make the offensive more explosive--punish the defenses that sold out to stop the run or to take advantage of overcommitting to a Heisman-level running back.
November 22nd, 2022 at 12:08 PM ^
A complex and dependable passing game doesn’t just happen.
you have to rep timing and distance, we didn’t shadow box our passing game against the tomato can teams.
Best case scenario is McCarthy hits situational strikes that gives a fresh set of downs.
Thats a far cry from the preseason hype we all envisioned.
November 22nd, 2022 at 1:54 PM ^
“Complex” is a misleading idea.
At times I’ve wondered if part of the problem is that Michigan’s passing game is too complex, rather than not complex enough.
Tennessee throws for boatloads of yards using Art Briles philosophies. They aren’t complex at all; in fact, classic Art Briles packages only taught receivers a handful of routes.
Michigan has a large number of plays. It’s part of the challenge of playing against them. Harbaugh is an NFL guy.
Complex isn’t bad and it isn’t good. The key is effectiveness.
November 22nd, 2022 at 11:06 PM ^
Urban Meyer is also known for simplicity in his offenses, and I venture to guess Day also simplifies it, which might explain why Haskins (RIP) and Fields are NFL disappointments.
November 22nd, 2022 at 1:55 PM ^
The part of any analysis about either team is that there just aren't a ton of comparable opponents. OSU gave up 200 yards on the ground to NW in a blustery day but otherwise has done okay holding down running teams. But at the same time, is PSU or Wisconsin the best running team they've played all year? They certainly have't played a team averaging anything close to UM's production on the ground. Similarly, UM hasn't played a passing game as good as OSU's, with Maryland the closest analog but not in the same stratosphere. So it's mostly unknowns.
Michigan will be in trouble if they are forced to pass a ton in a predictable game situation. At the same time, OSU has struggled throwing the ball (relatively speaking) this past month and even if the weather contributed to part of it they struggled against the better defenses they faced (Iowa and PSU held up pretty well until their offenses started to give OSU short fields).
At this point there isn't going to be some deep analysis that will unearth a hidden reason behind a win for either team. These are two close teams who will likely play a tough game that could be won by either one.
November 22nd, 2022 at 11:33 AM ^
The way to beat OSU is a balanced approach where we control the clock and keep them off the field. Passing is important but balance and clock control is paramount.
November 22nd, 2022 at 11:51 AM ^
3 drives.
We receive and proceed on a 40 play 30min drive and score a TD. They score on the first drive after half. We then go on a 25min 33 play drive ending with a Moody FG as time expires.
November 22nd, 2022 at 11:54 AM ^
Excellent stuff. That would work for me!
November 22nd, 2022 at 12:17 PM ^
Sounds like an excellent game plan. I would love to see how a team gets 40 plays in a single drive.
Would have to include several occasions of a defensive penalty resulting in an automatic first down after the offense has had serious negative yardage.