College Football Nerds Game Prediction
These guys always have interesting commentary about big games, and the model they use is at least as accurate as most of the analytics we usually reference. For those that don't want to watch, their computer model predicts M to win 31-29, and both hosts pick M 27-24. Yes, they're from SEC country, but in my opinion it's always interesting to hear different, unbiased perspectives. Go Blue.
October 26th, 2021 at 5:48 PM ^
Regardless of who wins, I'd expect a nail bitter. That's DVR city for me baby! I can't take that kind of stress anymore. Once I know the W is in hand I don't mind watching the ebb and flow of the game. If it's an L, I don't need to watch it.
October 26th, 2021 at 5:59 PM ^
I'm with you. 3 hours of screaming at the tv and unneeded spikes in my blood pressure doesn't do my health any good. I'll dvr it and watch later if Michigan wins and live in denial if they lose. That way I don't spend 3 hours with stress and anxiety
October 26th, 2021 at 7:08 PM ^
3 hours? One can dream.
October 26th, 2021 at 10:14 PM ^
The game is on Fox so it’s going to be 4 hours.
October 26th, 2021 at 6:09 PM ^
For me the stress is part of the experience. It's like watching a horror movie, it wouldn't be any fun if I knew what was going to happen. Some of the most memorable games for me have been the nail-biters where I'm sitting on the edge of the seat or standing up because I'm too nervous to sit down.
I did force myself to stop yelling at the TV, though. It was causing my dog too much stress and just wasn't fair to him.
October 26th, 2021 at 6:18 PM ^
I always watch live when I can -- great decision to travel during the MSU game last year -- but upon re-watch it does feel like a horror movie. Re-watched the whole Colorado '94 game a few months ago and kept wanting to warn Moeller, "no, watch out, he's in the closet, he's got a knife..."
October 26th, 2021 at 7:59 PM ^
Every game I record ends up with an L for the good guys. Watching live
October 26th, 2021 at 6:44 PM ^
Exactly. You can't get the full enjoyment of the win unless you're prepared to take the disappointment of the loss.
Besides, sports provide the last source of unscripted, unpredictable drama. It has to be viewed live in possible!
October 26th, 2021 at 6:59 PM ^
This is true, but for some (like me) the muted joy of the win is worth the muted pain of a loss.
October 26th, 2021 at 7:42 PM ^
Exactly. Mow the grass and get some other stuff done around the house. If Michigan wins I will watch later but if they lose I won’t have to waste my time.
October 26th, 2021 at 7:57 PM ^
Same here. The last 10 years of M football have taught me it is not worth the stress of live TV to only be irritable the rest of the day. I'm glad there are others who feel the same, but my wife tells me I am not a real fan.
October 26th, 2021 at 8:10 PM ^
How is it any less stressful to know the game is happening but not what is happening? I watch partly to reduce the stress unless I have legitimately interesting plans. Like mowing the lawn and doing chores is not taking my mind off the game
October 26th, 2021 at 9:24 PM ^
Now that you mention it, I remember having to miss the 2014 MSU-U-M B1G tournament final because of work and being grateful for it.
October 26th, 2021 at 9:43 PM ^
Totally with you. I just can’t handle Michigan football live as the last ten years have taught me that ANY downturns are prelude to an epic collapse and I don’t like who I am when I watch the games live. My Daughters Volleyball, Haircut, Taking son to the gym all sound like great things to do with my three hours instead.
October 26th, 2021 at 10:26 PM ^
i completely understand this dynamic. i was hoping our high school playoff game would be on saturday afternoon so that mgobuddies could text me scores of the michigan/sparty game while i'm on the sidelines and otherwise very distracted. just like 2019, with the same wonderful outcome.
October 26th, 2021 at 11:23 PM ^
Same here. Watching a stressful game is an awful experience. I'll be out hiking in the woods or something during the game.
October 27th, 2021 at 12:14 AM ^
I get the sentiment, but I couldn't imagine the excitement or loathing to be quite the same when you finally stumble upon the final score.
Sports is a journey, not a destination.
October 27th, 2021 at 2:45 PM ^
Personally, I check the temperature of the boards to see if we won or not so I can watch a replay without knowing the score. Usually works.
October 26th, 2021 at 6:01 PM ^
Some other computer models I've seen:
SP+: M by 3
Piratings: M by 2.3
Sportsline: M 31, MSU 21
Predictiontracker.com has Michigan as an average winner by 4.27 and a 60.37% chance of winning (w/ MSU a 50.41% chance of covering +4.5)
https://www.thepredictiontracker.com/predncaa.html
October 26th, 2021 at 6:09 PM ^
I'm just gonna assume that the computers are beautiful and smart and know more than we do. Go Blue!
October 27th, 2021 at 10:30 AM ^
LOL! Perfect!
October 26th, 2021 at 7:04 PM ^
I think Michigan is going to have a significant statistical advantage in this game. My concern is the score will not reflect that advantage.
MSU scored 23 pts./71 total rush yards/12 1st downs v Nebraska and 20 pts./100 total rush yards/14 1st downs v Indiana. They should have two losses.
These guys do a nice job with their analysis.
October 26th, 2021 at 8:41 PM ^
Re:Nebraska, it's worth pointing out that they had a punt return touchdown when Nebraska kicked a directional punt the wrong way. Indiana gifted them a pick-6. Their offense was even worse than the scores in those games.
October 26th, 2021 at 10:27 PM ^
Probably game winning gift plays in each case. Indiana yes?
I’m fearful, but in a bad bounce, bad call, bad luck kind of way.
It also would not surprise me to see us win by three scores.
October 27th, 2021 at 7:01 AM ^
Yeah, meant to say Indiana. I just fixed it. I largely feel the same about Saturday. I think it will be tight, but I won't be totally shocked if we win by 10+.
October 27th, 2021 at 2:08 PM ^
This MSU team has that creepy feel like the 2015 MSU team.
They should have lost several games that year including the game we pretty much dominated. And it finally took a playoff game to expose them as frauds.
With PSU seeming to crumble under injury and coaching innuendo things are opening up in the East and the West isn’t stopping anyone.
We need to smoke these guys Saturday.
October 26th, 2021 at 7:34 PM ^
These guys made another great point on their OSU/PSU video. OSU has played all the worst pass defenses in the B1G thus far. It's possible their passing game is at least a touch overhyped.
October 26th, 2021 at 7:37 PM ^
Worst ranking before they played them or after?
October 26th, 2021 at 8:49 PM ^
Great point, and honestly, I don't know how the model works, but I think they take that into account.
October 26th, 2021 at 7:41 PM ^
Perhaps, but....
Stroud was dropping some absolute dimes vs. Indiana -- passes that are gonna work against ANY team. With the receivers that they have, they are going to be REALLY difficult to stop, or even slow down.
October 26th, 2021 at 8:11 PM ^
Anyone can drop dimes like that when there’s no QB pressure. Check out Justin Fields last weekend vs. the Bucs to see what relentless pressure can do to a good QB. If a team can start getting to him, I wonder how well his accuracy and decision-making hold up.
October 27th, 2021 at 7:30 AM ^
A hurried or beaten up QB is always going to be less accurate. A clean QB is not always going to be "dropping dimes". Not just anyone can throw with accuracy (especially deep).
October 27th, 2021 at 8:35 AM ^
OSU has NFL draft pick WRs all over the field, I think their passing game is okay. Sounds like a little SEC bias, to me...
October 26th, 2021 at 7:53 PM ^
At this point in the week it's pretty much what I was looking for. Guarded optimism. Since winning the game and coming out healthy is what I'm looking for, I'll take it. Thank you.
October 26th, 2021 at 8:30 PM ^
Seeing how Harbaugh came out aggressive on the road in a big game in Madison with a pass on the first play, ready to go for it on 4th & 1 from our own 35 yard line a few plays after, and then go for it again a few plays later on 4th & 1 from our 45 yard line makes me feel confident that both the coaching staff and players will come out with a ton of aggression, confidence, and swagger. Let’s Fetty Wap those motherfuckers like we did Wisconsin
October 26th, 2021 at 10:35 PM ^
So they're saying I should not have bet Michigan -3.5? Fuck all that noise. Michigan by 7.
October 26th, 2021 at 11:28 PM ^
My probability model shows a percent probability between a big win and a close game. I think we got this one.
10% chance that MSU wins by 2 or more TDs 30% chance that Michigan wins by 2 or more TDs. 30% chance MSU will win a close game by 3 points or less. 30% chance Michigan will win a close game by 3 points or less.
60/40 chance that Michigan will beat MSU, and there is a chance it could be a blowout. If it is under 7 points going into the 4th, I will start to worry, since it will only be a 50/50 chance of winning.
October 27th, 2021 at 11:16 AM ^
Gee, reading the comments sure helps me understand the BPONE exhibited on this blog. These are the kind of games that I can truly enjoy. In order to get a great enjoyable win, you have to have the reasonable possibility that you can lose.
Go Blue!