CFB might be dying... slowly
Dennis spent some time on his computer today putting together some data - namely avg. attendance by year and major conference, along with telecast power-rankings.
A few insights:
- the NFL dominates televised sports, taking up 82 of the 100 most-watched telecasts in 2022. CFB took up just 5!
- AVG. CFB attendance has been falling across the board YOY for the last decade, with a bump in 2022, likely due to COVID burnout/desire to attend live events.
- the PAC-12 died because despite the AVG. attendance bump in 2022, they still had the 2nd lowest attendance EVER.
- the SEC dominates college football, avg.ing ~10K more fans per game vs. the B1G (2nd largest avg. attendance.
Predictions:
- the CFB industry is lacking innovation, is old, and has a core of solid fans that is slightly dwindling YOY. The NFL will continue to eat up market share, and CFB will see continued attrition. (Anecdotally, I've already started spending more time following the NFL than I ever have in my life).
- the SEC will eventually overtake all the other conferences, share of championships (they already do), and Cinderella stories will fall even further out of possibility.
August 21st, 2023 at 11:47 AM ^
CFB isn't lacking innovation, the problem is the innovations they make are prioritize short-term gains over long-term prosperity. Jim Delaney putting Maryland and Rutgers in the Big 10 was an "innovation" that made additional money in the short run but gave us unwatchable games in the long-term.
CFB isn't dying, it's being cannibalized by its own constituents.
August 21st, 2023 at 11:52 AM ^
CFB isn't dying, it's being cannibalized by its own constituents.
*insert Pizzathehut.gif*
August 21st, 2023 at 11:54 AM ^
Spaceballs references always get a +1 from me. Always.
August 21st, 2023 at 11:57 AM ^
Then if you haven't seen it yet, you might be interested in directing your attention to this thread.
August 21st, 2023 at 1:06 PM ^
Additional +1 have been distributed in that thread like Schwartz rings to aspiring Lone Starrs.
August 21st, 2023 at 11:57 AM ^
I’ve come to the same conclusion as Blinkin. The changes in football include more commercial breaks, fewer regional rivalries, fewer high-quality out of conference games, an in-conference games with fewer consequences. Meanwhile we’re ignoring teams that can’t ever win a national championship.
also also, this is all happening while the cost of attending a game skyrockets, and the quality of watching games at home drastically improves. I think the game will fade unless we can garner more interest from a younger audience.
August 21st, 2023 at 1:41 PM ^
Exactly. Let me shake my fist at a cloud and shout.
I blame this all on the misguided idea that we had to have an undisputed champion of college football, following the 97 season and call for a championship game and then playoffs, all so the networks could sell more ad time for games that never needed to be played. What it meant, inevitably, was that each season, every team save one had an unsuccessful, disappointing, meaningless season, instead of there being a couple dozen teams happy to have won their conference, and/or gone to a bowl game, and half of them winning. Everybody's happy. Sure, coaches and sportswriters would vote, and there might be a close or even split decision, and we could argue about it for a year, or a decade. That was good for the game, not bad.
August 21st, 2023 at 5:01 PM ^
As much Flack as the BCS era got, it really had some memorable moments. The USC texas championship game, the Oklahoma-Boise State game. Michigan had an amazing Rose Bowl game against Texas the year before Texas won it all (hated the loss, but was an amazing game). BCS appearances still meant something big, even if they weren't for the Championship. Late 90s to mid/late 00s was a great time for college football. Lot's of classic games, conferences were mostly stable (Big East and ACC had some changes). Offenses were all over the place with spread option(aka West Virginia), spread run and guns (texas Tech), triple options (Georgia Tech), under center beef (aka Wisconsin) and everything in between. There was innovation, and teams had to schedule tough to earn a spot in a BCS game. ESPN seemed to be at the top of their game with college gameday, and it all seemed fun and totally unique from the NFL. I don't think college football is falling off any map, but it feels a little different to me.
Anecdotal, I watch way more college football than NFL.
August 23rd, 2023 at 10:34 AM ^
Yeah, I think an argument can be made that the Playoff is actually what has "ruined" college football to the extent that it has been. Being a huge fan of a team who has played in the Playoff the last two years, I can say two things. 1) The Playoff is awesome. 2) The Playoff is not college football.
August 21st, 2023 at 12:06 PM ^
"Cannibalized by its own constituents"
Aka consolidation
Aka the business cycle that occurs right before domination/monopoly, followed by decline
Maryland + Rutgers wasn't innovation, it was consolidation
August 21st, 2023 at 1:26 PM ^
Well, in a way, it was innovation - for a brief moment. Jim Delany did unseal - for good - the door to turning a conference into a television empire, if you will, and at the time, what better way to do that than get into two of the largest markets in DC/NOVA and NYC? If it had not been before, that cat was fully out of the box at that point. The Big Ten became the Internet - a showcase put on for eyeballs that has, at best, scattershot content.
August 21st, 2023 at 12:07 PM ^
Exactly my thought. Innovation isn’t the solution, it’s the problem.
In addition, I believe the NCAA discontinuing its punishment for pay-for-play in the pre-NIL era allowed the SEC to gain a stranglehold. Since fewer teams outside of that conference have a legitimate chance at a national title, in combination with the media narrative evolving to focus almost solely on winning a national title, fewer fan bases will remain strong in the future.
August 21st, 2023 at 12:38 PM ^
Also, ADs started acting like NFL teams and treating their fans like NFL teams do, not realizing CFB fans are different than NFL fans and like CFB and their team(s) because it’s all so different than the NFL. Introducing seat licenses, continued increases in ticket prices for fans despite huge increases in TV revenue, priority point systems heavily skewed towards large donors vs. loyal longtime season ticket holders, more commercials (CFB is actually worse than the NFL in this regard). The NFL is actually better positioned for long term success because they have a single central org to protect the long term quality of the product (e.g removing commercial-kickoff-commercial sequence and always close to 3 hours gametime) over short term gains whereas in CFB conferences are worried about losing out to another so will keep inserting commercials and destroying their product for short term profit over long term quality.
I love the NFL & Lions almost as much as I love CFB & Michigan but for very different reasons. The closer the latter becomes to the former, why wouldn’t fans who don’t attend games just watch the product with better players, less commercials, and has an additional social aspect with fantasy football? The tailgating and social aspect of reuniting with my old college buddies in AA will prevent me from ever turning my back on CFB/Michigan but that’s not true for everyone, especially when the vast majority of fans watch on TV.
August 21st, 2023 at 12:55 PM ^
My wife and I were talking about this while we were walking the dog last night. She called out that I've become so much more invested in soccer than I usually am, and my interest in football has fall off considerably, so I really had to reflect as to what might have changed.
Honestly, when I put them side-by-side, it's the fucking commercials. 3.5 hours to watch a game including all of the stopping and commercials. Soccer, I know exactly what time I'm putting in, running clock + stoppage is fairly predictable, it's much easier to invest myself in and watch.
The short-term money grab is personally decaying my own interest in something I used to be religious about consuming.
August 21st, 2023 at 1:46 PM ^
It’s about quality over quantity. The quality of CFB teams is poor beyond the top 25. The NFL has better quality top to bottom and the. NCAA stuffs Saturday’s and other days full of average to below average teams and expects people to watch it.
August 21st, 2023 at 6:58 PM ^
I disagree with this. I could watch a high school football game in about an hour and 45 minutes and enjoy all of it, because there is a constant flow to the game and a lot of football per minute being played. I could and would do the same thing for an Indiana vs Northwestern game if such an option existed.
The problem is just the commercials and other stoppages where they slow way down to get everything exactly right (both refs and coaches). So the odd thing is that the fix is so easy. In-game screen ads and charging more for regular commercials would allow them to pull the game times back to 3:15 instead of nearly four hours, but they don't do it.
Seriously, the instant the camera turns to a referee or a coach doing anything, boom put up the Buick logo, boom bring on any insurance company mascot, and just stay with the game.
August 21st, 2023 at 11:01 PM ^
I was one of those “never soccer” guys growing up. But after I started watching, the continuous flow of the game really appealed to me. Football should adopt some of those things (screen ads, ads around the field, even a small ad on the uniform - and before you claim that is sacrilege - note the Nike swoosh or Jumpman logo on the jersey is nothing more than an advertisement) and reduce the ridiculous number of commercials.
There’s nothing worse in sports than the score-commercial-kickoff-commercial combo. 10 minutes for 1 kickoff that rarely gets returned anymore. And heaven forbid they score near the end of the first or third quarters.
August 21st, 2023 at 11:49 AM ^
-1 for the third person reference. -(-1) because I don't really downvote people. But if I did, I would.
I would be interested in a comparison between the loss of CFB market share and the increase in share of other sports besides the NFL - soccer in particular, especially as UK and European teams are making dedicated efforts to capture our eyeballs. And I would consider this in terms of viewrship and not physical game attendance.
August 21st, 2023 at 11:50 AM ^
It would be interesting to see a breakdown by geographic area. Having spent most of my life in the Midwest but the past 5 years on the west coast, there is a very clear difference in CFB fandom and devotion between the 2. You could say that in general for sports allegiance, but NBA and NFL (and even NHL to some extent) have devoted followings out here in a way that college sports do not.
My sense is midwest and southeast CFB devotion is not dwindling, but that outside of those areas, and especially on the west coast, CFB and college sports in general is seen as somewhat of a strange/niche attraction in comparison to the professional leagues
August 21st, 2023 at 11:57 AM ^
SoCal and SoFla have terrible fans in almost every sport because the weather is beautiful all year round. Alot easier to do outside stuff when it's 80F outside than when it's 30F.
August 21st, 2023 at 12:45 PM ^
getting OT here - but people say this a lot. And if there's a pool/beach/water around, for sure that's true. But in my experience, people are more likely to go outside and hike/play ball in the 40s than the 80s, and...that makes sense because it'd be a lot safer.
I feel like when it's in the 80s, most often people retreat to their AC. Pools and beaches make hot weather better tho, for sure.
August 21st, 2023 at 5:17 PM ^
SoCal has dedicated pro sports followings though. Say what you want about them, but Lakers and Dodgers games are attended at a much different level than UCLA football games
August 21st, 2023 at 11:03 PM ^
And the Rose Bowl will sell out for a pro soccer exhibition game while UCLA draws 10-20k depending on the opponent.
August 21st, 2023 at 11:51 AM ^
Participation, attendance and viewership of just about everything is going down because demographics of aging societies and skyrocketing costs vs stale incomes. If younger generations are smaller and have less relative income than before then there will be less consumption of nearly everything.
August 21st, 2023 at 12:25 PM ^
I agree and also what are we really doing here? A metric shit ton of cash is pouring in and we are signing billion dollar tv contracts? The NFL is some oil baron in the middle east but college football is just fine being Warren Buffet. If the FBS made 1/10th what it made now we would still be fine. FCS doesnt say it dying every year because of comparisons to the FBS.
August 21st, 2023 at 11:52 AM ^
Passion is just as high
the problems tend to be around the commercial aspects (who doesn’t despise the % of time spent watching commercials for a Michigan)
so sure they can’t keep annoying the “consumer “ but the interest level of the consumer seems higher than ever
August 21st, 2023 at 11:53 AM ^
What does in-person attendance have to do with TV ratings? Conferences are signing record TV contracts. The NBA doesn't have a single top 100 telecast for last year, while CFB has 5. Is the NBA dying?
Dwindling in-person attendance has affected all sports and has more to do with advances in TV than it does in a lack of innovation in any sport.
If anything, I would argue that conference consolidation is ensuring the current lifeblood of the sport (TV deals) continues to grow.
August 21st, 2023 at 12:03 PM ^
Consolidation is well-known within the business community as a marker of early decline.
Large players eat up the smaller to maintain market share, become top-heavy, customer experience falls as a result, and customers stop buying.
August 21st, 2023 at 12:12 PM ^
That is a very broad statement to make and a bit strange to apply in the abstract.
You claim the NFL is king (which is true) and will continue to be so forever. Do you think the folding of the USFL after its failed attempt to merge with the NFL resulted in a decline in the NFL's product or success? Why should the Pac 12 folding be anything but a footnote for the success of the SEC and the Big Ten?
There are countless examples where consolidation leads to market power for who remains; it by no means always presages a decline for the industry.
August 21st, 2023 at 12:22 PM ^
Some thoughts:
- Regular season NFL games have about the same screen viewership as top 5 grossing CFB games
- CFB is moving to super-conferences where college identity and geography matter less, recruiting talent is becoming further concentrated, and smaller teams are dying in both fandom and recruiting talent
Why would college football gain more fans to watch fewer teams who are less talented than NFL squads - which have built-in parity via the draft?
August 21st, 2023 at 12:30 PM ^
Whatever you compare to the NFL, when it comes to an American tv viewing audience, isnt going to do well. Most blue bloods carry about 2 million fans and none of those teams are going to relocate. Perfectly fine (FBS) isnt the enemy of perfect (NFL) its just perfectly fine.
August 21st, 2023 at 12:53 PM ^
"CFB is not as successful as the NFL" does not = "CFB is dying."
The NFL has had superior talent since forever...conferences have been realigning (remember we added fucking Rutgers and Maryland) for years and guess what, the total value of TV contracts for cfb has only increased over that span.
You can argue that the loss of the Oregon State's of the world will lead to the death of college football (I am dubious), but the data you are pointing to does not support that narrative.
August 21st, 2023 at 12:28 PM ^
You can't be serious. When industries/sectors consolidate it's because there are too many participants in order to be cost-effective and have pricing power. Thus consolidation often drives better cost and scale for the remaining few plus the ability to drive price as well as innovation, provided it's in a growing sector.
What's happening now is the natural result of the combination of the need for growing revenues and the public demand for a 'true national champion'. And while a comment above noted fewer good non-conference games that point isn't quite right given the old cross-sectional non-con games are all conference games (M vs Wash, Ore, UCLA, etc.).
An alternate view is that larger conferences will provide more good games like happened pre-BCS -- before teams went to softer non-con games to ensure a better record. The poll era games were better -- because of the need for a better resume to impress voters -- and those will return with bigger conferences providing some of the match-ups we used to get.
August 21st, 2023 at 11:54 AM ^
Nice analysis, but I would say you couldn't be more wrong if you tried.
Attendance is dropping because every game is televised and tickets are very expensive. Yes, NFL is #1 in top televised events, but CFB ratings are doing just fine or else the B1G wouldn't have just received $7B.
Just like someone already said, you shouldn't look at top rated games but at total viewership. There are at most 16 NFL games per week, but CFB probably has 80 or more televised games per week.
August 21st, 2023 at 12:09 PM ^
Everyone keeps referencing these contracts as if they are appropriately valued and user-base is 100% predicted.
August 21st, 2023 at 3:44 PM ^
So what metric have you used to "appropriately" value the contracts?
August 21st, 2023 at 11:55 AM ^
College is cannibalizing itself, sports is just out in front of it. Attendance is down cause why spend $79 to watch them play utep when I can sit at home and watch 12 games. Why go to college and pay $300k for a degree when I can go to trade school and make $100k plus as a first year electrician with no student loans? Interesting times are coming for colleges period
August 21st, 2023 at 12:14 PM ^
To be fair the decreased demand is great for the smaller games, you can pick up tickets for the first few games for $40 something plus fees online which is less than 10 years ago
August 21st, 2023 at 2:18 PM ^
Because you don't want to be an electrician (or work a different Trade job)? Also, there is more to college than just getting work training. It is often a formative and life defining (good and bad) experience for many people.
August 21st, 2023 at 2:26 PM ^
Good response. You want more examples of trade jobs compared to bogus degrees? Yeah you can't get life experience joining the workforce at 20 with jobs in every corner of the country only going to college. 🤣🤣🤣
August 21st, 2023 at 3:20 PM ^
" Why go to college and pay $300k for a degree when I can go to trade school and make $100k plus as a first year electrician with no student loans?"
Because you aren't making $100K your first year as an electrician.
It'll take you 2-3 years to get a journeyman's card... and average salary for a journeyman electrician in the USA is about $55,000
August 21st, 2023 at 11:08 PM ^
What boggles my mind are the people spending $300K for an out-of-state education when they could spend $150K for an in-state school of comparable ranking/quality. Is getting far away from home really worth $150K?
August 21st, 2023 at 11:55 AM ^
The value of the latest Big Ten contract suggests the networks don't think it's dying.
To make that argument, I think you need to look at overall viewership (not just the handful of most watched games compared to the NFL).
August 21st, 2023 at 12:05 PM ^
Those large contracts are a direct result of consolidation aka buying fans from other teams and putting them in your own revenue pool.
That doesn't mean the revenue pool won't continue to shrink.
CFB viewing contracts are a bubble.
August 21st, 2023 at 12:23 PM ^
Unless I'm missing something, you didn't show the revenue pool is shrinking.
August 21st, 2023 at 12:53 PM ^
Reporting (based on tax records for the conferences) show just the opposite.
In May, it was reported that the Power Five conferences set a record with 2022 revenue of $3.3 Billion.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/2023/05/19/power-5-conferences-earnings-billions-2022/70235450007/
In 2019 (pre-pandemic) it was $2.9 Billion.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/2020/07/10/power-five-conference-revenue-fiscal-year-2019/5414405002/
FY18: $2.75 Billion
FY17: $2.46 Billion
FY16: $2.3 Billion
FY 15: $2.1 Billion
FY 14: $1.57 Billion
https://footballscoop.com/news/the-power-5-schools-made-how-much-in-2018-conference-distributions-acc-big-ten-sec-big-12-pac-12-b1g
August 21st, 2023 at 11:56 AM ^
Oh sure.... we start winning Conference Championships again and now the sport is dying.....
WHY CAN'T WE HAVE ANYTHING NICE ANYMORE!!!!
August 21st, 2023 at 11:59 AM ^
The dying is slow at first, but then the pace picks up and WHAM! before you know it, it's dead.
August 21st, 2023 at 11:59 AM ^
Maybe less attendance because the in stadium experience sucks more each year? Not sure this analysis is saying what you think it's saying though because more people are probably watching from home and that's what drives revenues... stadium attendance $'s don't seem as important anymore.
The Top 100 telecasts thing shouldn't be a surprise as that's exactly the reason the NFL TV rights deals are so lucrative.
I stopped watching the NFL entirely over the years but still watch a ton of CFB. Just don't have time for both and I find CFB more interesting.
August 21st, 2023 at 12:29 PM ^
Do you think these TV deals will grow CFB viewership or that the growing market share of the NFL will continue on-trend?