Cade's passing in second half--not as bad as it looked?
First, disclaimers: I'm not a football expert. I never played, nor coached. I'm just a fan who watches the game closely, sometimes in the presence of people who are far more knowledgeable than I. If I am wrong I will gladly admit it and am eager to have it explained to me.
Several threads have speculated that Cade's 1/5 on his last 5 throws was due either to the effects of the targeting hit he took, or his tendency to fold under pressure. Maybe those things are true; I don't know. But maybe instead of those explanations, or in addition to them, it looked worse than it was.
https://youtu.be/CNsZjvIcd48?t=366
1st and goal, right before halftime, 10 seconds on the clock. Schoonmaker slips and almost falls on his face as he comes off the line and Cade's pass is far in front of him. Could the inaccurate pass have been due to the slip? With just 10 seconds on the clock, Cade must have been under instructions to let it go on time, so maybe this was just bad luck.
https://youtu.be/CNsZjvIcd48?t=377
1st and 10 from their own 34, middle of 3rd quarter. This is a very good throw to the sideline which gains 8 yards. Ball is low so there's no way the defender could break and make a play.
https://youtu.be/CNsZjvIcd48?t=407
1st and 10 from their own 21, start of 4th quarter. Pass is low, but Sanistril gets his hands on it and should probably have caught it. I don't think this throw was as bad as it looked. Maybe Cade was trying to keep the ball low to avoid a big hit from #5 who was closing fast. Maybe I'm just looking at it with rose-colored glasses.
https://youtu.be/CNsZjvIcd48?t=419
2nd and 10 from same spot. Incomplete over the middle. Either this was a terrible throw because All was wide open, or miscommunication, with Cade expecting All to sit down instead of continuing his route. If All sits down this is right on the money and a big gain.
https://youtu.be/CNsZjvIcd48?t=431
This wasn't actually a pass attempt, but at least it was a called pass. 3rd and 10 from same spot. Flushed from the pocket by a 3-man rush (this was the problem!), Cade scrambles for a short gain. From my view I didn't see any other options since receivers appeared covered.
https://youtu.be/CNsZjvIcd48?t=465
3rd and 5 from their own 25, middle of the 4th quarter. Incomplete pass to sideline. I'm not 100% sure this is on Cade. He hesitates before throwing, and I think he expected Henning to cut the route off sharper and aim for the sticks. Instead, Henning rounds off his break and heads for a spot 5 yards downfield of the marker. Cade's throw, which he makes as Henning is in his break, goes right to the marker and is safely low.
September 27th, 2021 at 11:15 AM ^
Nope, it was bad.
September 27th, 2021 at 12:59 PM ^
I don't think so at all, and i posted in a previous thread so im glad the OP did this research.
The last throw was bad. I won't defend that. Every other throw the intended receiver got their hand on the ball. And as i stated previously, some were definitely catchable, while 1/2 would be 'circus catches'.
The 2nd half Cade was not nearly the debacle people are stating. It is just that Michigan fans expect him to continuously go 9 for 11. Fuck, they even complain when he does that!!!
September 27th, 2021 at 1:22 PM ^
No. I think people expect that by year 7-8, that the coaches could develop a QB into a weapon. That's what many (including me) expect. And, regardless if he's 1-5, 9-11, or Jameis winston throwing 30 picks in a season... we want someone that
1. produces more good than bad
2. Doesnt make giant f-ups that cost us games (see #1)
3. Is a weapon that either is the man (Brady/Rodgers) or enables other weapons to shine and help us win.
He's barely doing #1 and #2... remember the competition. and he is miles from #3.
That's the issue.
September 27th, 2021 at 1:42 PM ^
He has not thrown an interception or fumbled in his career. His avg per attempt is probably top 40% in the nation (without looking). And #3, you are comparing him to the best QB in NFL history, and the ten thousandth best in NFL history, respectively. That is severely insane.
EDIT:
and by the way, i am only arguing about Cade in this instance, not the OC's and offense in general under Harbaugh. That is an entirely different subject and has nothing to do with the OP. I AM disgusted with most of the playcalling. I have never seen so many 3rd and 12, 3rd and 10, 3rd and 8, 3rd and 6, 3rd and 5, 3rd and 4 runs up the fucking middle. And not testing the edge nearly enough. These guys are getting paid over a million dollars a year to do something that 500k fat asses sitting at a bar drinking beer would not even be dumb enough to do.
September 27th, 2021 at 1:57 PM ^
And if you look at Tom Brady's college career, this board would have been howling for Drew Henson for most of his career. It really wasn't until the last half of his senior season that he caught on fire.
September 28th, 2021 at 8:07 AM ^
Only one problem with your analogy. Cade is not Tom Brady. He probably should start this week, but if he falters again, he will be pulled. If he stays in more than a quarter, it will be too late against Wisconsin. Even a full quarter might be too long. I would give him 2 or 3 possessions to wake up.
September 27th, 2021 at 4:47 PM ^
ok, then we're saying similar things. im not blaming cade. im blaming the coaches for not putting the offense in position to be an asset, but rather just trying to hide what appears to be a weakness (which shouldnt be). The best attributes ive heard are "he hasnt thrown a pick" and "he hasnt fumbled". thats not a weapon. thats just not a negative. a double negative. youre a double negative.
i dont think 5 passes in a half in ANY game is enough, unless youre up 300-0 at the half. and even then, you put jj in to get some reps. I also would agree that its not fair to crush cade at this point, for that reason exactly. he never gets to throw and looks panicked on his rare chance to do so.
And, earlier this season, i made the point that the time to let him sling it a bit was EARLY when we were in blowouts and easy games and he could gain some confidence. Instead, he gets hit one time and everyone says he got broken for the rest of the game and they tried 5 passes and then said... no mas.
He's probably somewhere in between decent and very good - but nobody ever gets to see it. And when they finally are forced to do so next week, or the week after, or the week after and so on... nobody can wonder why he can't get it done. Build the reps. Build the confidence. Now its too late and a good defense is awaiting the majority of the weeks left
September 27th, 2021 at 1:57 PM ^
How can you say barely doing #1 and #2 when he is undefeated, thrown zero interceptions? Frankly, he is pretty close the the second part of your #3 point. You are pretty dramatic.
September 27th, 2021 at 2:18 PM ^
1. He's easily producing more good than bad, because he's produced little to no bad at all.
2. Hasn't thrown a pick, hasn't fumbled, and hasn't been sacked. You qualifying this as "barely doing it" makes me think you're insane.
3. Oh...just be one of the greatest QBs in all of football history. Easy bar to reach there. An in lieu of that...what weapons does Michigan have that can shine? They lost their No. 1 WR, and everyone else is inexperienced. This almost decades long infatuation with the notion that Michigan has all of these offensive weapons on their roster that just aren't being utilized due to coaching, bad QB play, bad OL, etc just isn't true at all. We've seen players transfer, seen them go to the pros, and none of them have shown that they weren't being used correctly here.
September 27th, 2021 at 2:39 PM ^
I agree with most of your take, but I do think that we have a bit to be desired from Johnson, Baldwin, Wilson, Henning, Sainristil and All from a putting players in position to succeed on the receiving end. Some of that’s on Cade, most of that’s on the playcalling
September 27th, 2021 at 11:35 PM ^
This "WR got a hand on it" thing is so dumb. Could Sainristil have caught that? It's certainly possible. But even if he had it still was a shitty throw! The OP says there was pressure but there really wasn't. I can't say the OP made me feel better about things. Regarding the throw to All, he's locked onto him the entire time.
September 27th, 2021 at 11:16 AM ^
The every snap video definitely paints a different picture of the whole game because it's so condensed. The 1H was actually closer than it looked to being pretty stuffy and ugly, and the 2H was a lot closer to breaking out than it felt live. Most of the passing plays in the 2H in particular were wide open. Was it just an unlucky half for Cade or was he messed up from the late hit, that's the big remaining question.
September 27th, 2021 at 11:24 AM ^
I think he was messed up from the Schoonmaker TD miss. They showed him on the bench after that play and he was very down on himself. He did not look confident.
Once he started to miss a couple of throws in the second half, it snowballed.
Can he get over that? If he has a couple of bad passes at Wisconsin is he going to hear voices in his head "On no, here we go again"?
September 27th, 2021 at 11:55 AM ^
The TD miss was also right after the big hit he took. Could be both! Could have just been an off half for everyone.
Winning ugly is better than losing ugly.
September 27th, 2021 at 12:02 PM ^
Could be. Hope so.
We'll know soon enough, because there will be some big time third-and-long duress at Camp Randall. We'll see how he handles it in a few days.
September 27th, 2021 at 12:01 PM ^
Couldn't the look on his face simply have been that he was frustrated we had to settle for a field goal instead of getting a touchdown? With 5 seconds left and no timeouts, another throw would have been risky. He knew Schoomaker was open despite his fall and he was probably angry at himself. Being angry at yourself doesn't necessarily mean he lost all confidence because of one play.
September 27th, 2021 at 1:03 PM ^
I thought maybe he overthrew Schoonmaker because a defensive player leaped at the last second and almost tipped his pass. McNamara changed his pass to avoid having it blocked.
September 27th, 2021 at 12:34 PM ^
Either way, he had better be ready to play on Saturday, because we know Wisconsin is not above taking a targeting penalty to headhunt our QBs and get them out of the game.
September 27th, 2021 at 1:18 PM ^
Why go with evidence and reasoning when you can go with feelings built up over nearly two decades of mostly underperforming team play?
Fans gotta fan.
I worry more about the running game not clicking once Rutgers adjusted to stuffing the box than I do a mere five passes—none of which was a bad decision (each the right read) and none of which were so bad you’d question Cade’s ability to regain accuracy.
Sure, he was a bit rattled. Yet his WRs got hands on or could have hands on each pass but LS stumble. Henning will learn to cut his route short. All—I am not sure he will learn to adjust his routes or read defenses enough to expect the ball sooner.
That’s the biggest teaching point I would have for the passing game: if the defense is playing tight and loads the box, speed up your routes and look for the ball earlier. Why? Because if they are playing run blitzes, someone is coming unprotected at the QB, so reads are faster.
September 27th, 2021 at 11:17 AM ^
Well, sure, the passes are accurate if the receivers happened to be where the ball was thrown. The problem with that theory is that the QB is the common link between all the bad passes. So either the receivers suddenly, collectively, forgot how to run routes, or. . . it was the QB. To put it another way, if a relationship falls apart, the reason might be the other one. If four of your last five relationships fall apart, it's probably you.
That said, sample size is extremely small, so we can't count out the possibility of miscommunication. Either way, coaches have some film to go over before we burn the next dozen possessions slamming into Wisconsin's stacked boxes.
September 27th, 2021 at 11:49 AM ^
This is an organizational behavior principle. If one person has the same problem with everyone it is that one person who has the problem. (Of course this principle breaks down if there is a toxic culture like in cases of sexual harassment/uncomfortable bro culture work environment.)
September 27th, 2021 at 11:57 AM ^
Right, and we can apply the corollary here. Excellent QB play can be undermined by horrible receivers (e.g., Poor Damn College Drew Brees). However, the team's pass completion rate over the first ten quarters of the season make that unlikely to be the root cause.
September 27th, 2021 at 1:01 PM ^
Or, in the words of Raylan Givens, "If you run into an asshole in the morning, you ran into an asshole. You run into assholes all day, you're the asshole."
September 27th, 2021 at 1:20 PM ^
Nice. A “Justified” reference!
September 27th, 2021 at 1:05 PM ^
Yeah, but if 4 of the 5 girls I talk to at the bar, randomly say “no thanks”, that’s not necessarily on me. It’s as you said, small sample size. They may have significant others, may like someone else, maybe getting over a relationship…. 4 of 5 means shit in the grand scheme of Cade’s passes.
September 27th, 2021 at 2:06 PM ^
I don't think your dating problems apply here. If someone's making a pass at a lady and you butt in and start to get all grabby, of course they're going to call pass interference.
(rimshot)
September 27th, 2021 at 1:14 PM ^
"Sample size is extremely small" is the understatement of the year!
OP charted 1 pass attempt in the 3Q! Rick Leach threw more than that!
September 27th, 2021 at 1:22 PM ^
To put it another way, if a relationship falls apart, the reason might be the other one. If four of your last five relationships fall apart, it's probably you.
I came to the thread expecting football, and left with a cold realization about myself
September 27th, 2021 at 11:18 AM ^
Just a question: after the targeting, was Cade examined by the medical staff for a concussion? I'm not saying he was concussed (although it might explain going from playing well to not-so-well), but I was under the impression after the Hoke/Morris fiasco that the medical staff could pull a player who got hit like that to test him if he was OK.
Cade took a hard hit, I would be disappointed if the medical staff wasn't paying attention and failed to at least check him out and make sure he was OK.
September 27th, 2021 at 11:23 AM ^
we trotted him out there for all the postgame interviews and TV wrapup shows so I guess he was fine
September 27th, 2021 at 11:49 AM ^
We don't know, but as we saw with Shane Morris, a concussed player often has problems staying upright. IANAD but I didn't get the impression that Cade was punch-drunk. At the very least, he didn't have symptoms so obvious that there's an open scandal. Everyone watching the game knew Morris was concussed. Cade was. . . inaccurate.
So, I think the concussion theory should be dropped for now -- not enough evidence, and not enough need. There are all kinds of injuries that can affect QB play. I think people like to assume concussion because we know that negates the player's agency, but for the sake of argument, what if the problem here is that it wasn't a concussion?
While there's something to be said for "toughing out" certain injuries, for many, you can't. If a force or counterforce is applied to a body part (bone, ligament, tendon, etc.) that's MIA because it's literally in two pieces, you are physically (as in the laws of physics) prevented from fine body control. At that point "toughness" is a non-factor; I don't care if you're a Navy SEAL turned Shaolin monk and shot so full of morphine you see pink elephants. Something as "small" and "minor" as a fractured thumb would completely wreck a QB's accuracy and it would be impossible to notice when it happened. I'm not saying that's what it was; my point is, it doesn't need to be a concussion, per se.
The stupid thing is that he wasn't pulled to get evaluated, even if it wasn't a concussion. His play was clearly affected by something, and evidence says we had a serviceable backup available. That should've been enough. But football coaches tend to be drooling, blithering, knuckle-dragging lunatics when it comes to the simple logic of managing injuries, and our coaching staff was particularly stupid that afternoon, so Cade could've had his knees bitten off by a sharknado and they'd probably have him crawling back out there.
September 27th, 2021 at 12:20 PM ^
It doesn't have to even be physical. If you get whacked in the head and the pass protection continuously breaks down you might just get the jitters.
If that's the case putting in the back-up will only further erode the young man's confidence.
I'm not sure how nuanced this staff or how they think but the over all psychological disposition should be a consideration.
September 27th, 2021 at 1:20 PM ^
If you get whacked in the head and the pass protection continuously breaks down you might just get the jitters. If that's the case putting in the back-up will only further erode the young man's confidence.
Repeatedly sending the same QB out to get crushed over and over sure worked out great for Devin Gardner. And Christian Hackenberg. And Will Speight. And, gosh, pretty much every college QB I've seen play behind a terrible O-line. It's almost like repeated exposure to trauma doesn't make you better; it makes you worse.
Try this on for size: Harbaugh wholeheartedly agrees with you, and hence refuses to pull his QBs, no matter how injured, unless they're physically unable to remain on the field. He is very consistent in this, going back to at least his Stanford years. He also has a long track record of broken QBs. Is that QB graveyard of his just 14+ years of strange coincidences, or perhaps leaving in the QBs well past the point of injury is the root cause of his QB problems, and he should stop doing that?
I think this Stone Age myth of fixing trauma with more trauma needs to be shot into the Sun already. There’s zero evidence supporting it and overwhelming evidence to contrary, starting with our own program.
September 27th, 2021 at 5:55 PM ^
You misunderstood my post or I wrote it poorly. What I specifically said was Cade's over all psychological disposition should be a consideration.'
I'm certainly not an advocate of necessarily fighting trauma with trauma. And am definitely sensitive to the deleterious effects of continuous exposure.
There also isn't a one size fits all remedy. 3 people can witness the same thing and 2 be fine while while the 3rd is ruined for life.
Every quarterback is going to get hit. How they handle it is what has to be considered.
Speight wasn't a special talent but he was really good at waiting to the last possible second to throw the ball and then doing the same thing the next play.
Is Cade more prone to jitters? You don't know. I don't know. All I said was you run the risk of affecting his confidence pulling him if it's not the case. It's a balance.
September 27th, 2021 at 12:20 PM ^
Some people have speculated on this, and while it's theoretically possible, I have a hard time buying it. For starters, it wasn't THAT bad of a hit, not like the Shane Morris one. And then it was the end of the half, and so there would be time to get a read on how he was feeling. And we have JJ McCarthy, who is chomping at his heels for playing time as it is, ready to go in.
If there was any question about his health at all in that way, I think they'd check it out.
Now, could he have been gunshy after the hit? Maybe. His first half was otherwise great, and the second half was wretched. And it really was wretched, a couple of those incompletions were just plain baaad. But I don't think he was concussed.
September 27th, 2021 at 11:20 AM ^
1 for 5 tells you all you need to know. It was that bad.
He had the yips under duress. Greg Norman style.
Maybe he gets over that, but he's shown he's got that side of him. That is an intangible that is very hard to just coach and practice away.
September 27th, 2021 at 11:27 AM ^
A Harbaugh QB getting the yips and struggling with confidence? Not the first time it has happened.
September 27th, 2021 at 12:01 PM ^
Aside from Jake Rudock, no QB under Harbaugh has been noticeably better at the end of the season than they were at the beginning. In fact, most have looked worse.
Speight in 2016 you can chalk up to injury but he looked awful in 2017. JOK looked like a for sure starter after Purdue then played one of the worst games of any Michigan QB the following week. Peters looked to be the QB of the future then by the bowl game looked terrible. Shea was up and down for two years but by his last game vs Bama he looked no better than his first game vs Notre Dame. Milton? Don’t even need to go there.
What is most worrisome about Cade is the fact that his “moxie” and confidence have been his two biggest talked about strengths. And we saw that. Last year. Vs this same team he shutdown against this year.
When a trend is this frequent, you have to find the one consistent factor.
September 27th, 2021 at 12:07 PM ^
Our QBs play confused.
Each play is an algebra problem. They don't play loose and confident. They don't play with muscle memory. Too much on their mental plate.
IMO, this is why we struggle on the road under duress.
September 27th, 2021 at 12:09 PM ^
Probably why our backups always look so good when they’re thrown in mid-game. Then they start and told “remember what you did last game to help us win? Yeah you’re not gonna do that again”
September 27th, 2021 at 12:49 PM ^
yep, I was/am really hoping Weiss helps solve this. I have used your analogy several times regarding the Michigan passing game and its perfect. Most plays it seems the QB is trying to solve a complex calculus problem during the 3rd and 4 to go play when a simple 5 yard out is the answer.
September 27th, 2021 at 1:22 PM ^
Exactly. And don't forget about the other QB who could be starting right now if he was still here - McCaffery. In his case, we don't know how he would have developed had be been the starter. But there are indications he didn't see eye to eye with Harbaugh and decided to take his services elsewhere.
September 27th, 2021 at 1:46 PM ^
Yeah, home to Daddy!
His brother also bailed on Nebraska.
Not a good track record for the sons of a former All-Pro & current ncaa coach!
September 27th, 2021 at 12:05 PM ^
Could be the last...
September 27th, 2021 at 1:52 PM ^
I really hope you have to eat your words, Stephen.
Every opportunity you get, you toss rotten fruit at Harbaugh. Every. Damn. Time.
It says things...
September 27th, 2021 at 11:26 AM ^
I agree, at least somewhat. It's hard to call this "a complete collapse," as some have, when the sample size is so low. Even viewing the plays in their most negative light, we're talking half-a-dozen stinkers. It's not a good sign, surely. But I'd have to see a few more plays before concluding it was as bad as it initially seemed.
P.S. I agree with the other poster who mentioned it felt different on the every snap video. One reason, I think, is the defense also played a frustrating brand of football in the second half, and the effect was cumulative.
September 27th, 2021 at 11:26 AM ^
I think he played worse in the second half but Henning in particular seemed off in this game; he didn't break on that first throw to him properly and I agree McNamara seemed surprised he didn't break on that 3rd-down pass sooner. I think Henning has a bit of Giles Jackson in him where he's good with the ball in his hands but he might not be great yet at getting open in coverage and running the plays.
This feels a bit like the Shea Patterson QB discussions wherein he'd play not-great and his receivers would mess up as well and yet the blame almost always fell on the WRs because QBs always get the credit and blame. I think this receiving corps REALLY misses Ronnie Bell and for some reason also went away from Cornelius Johnson in the 2nd half.
September 27th, 2021 at 11:36 AM ^
The Ronnie Bell security blanket was sorely missed in this game. I really hope All develops into a new security blanket. One big catch in this game, plus another near miss big catch. He's a weapon that could and should be activated in Bell's absence.
Johnson will also hopefully get there. One huge game in the upcoming weeks will go a long way in developing confidence in the passing game.
September 27th, 2021 at 11:59 AM ^
That last third down pass to Henning was an awful throw either way. McNamara released the ball after Henning's break, so it wasn't just that he was throwing it to where he expected Henning to be. And he left it 5+ yards short. Maybe he was just gun shy and wanted to err on the side of not throwing a pick 6, but that should have been an easy completion.
September 27th, 2021 at 12:14 PM ^
He seemed surprised a bit by the route Henning was taking. Like, he double-pumped that ball and seemed to surprised Henning was running farther away on a slant. He threw it short but also low, likely so he didn't expose it to a waiting DB. Again, I'm not making excuses for some of McNamara's throws but I have been underwhelmed by Henning all year as a receiver (he's great as a runner) and so I'm not going to place all the blame on that play with McNamara without additional info on the playcall.