C'Mon Man! ESPN's latest CFP projections give OSU best odds to win title
I haven't watched OSU this season. I don't like watching OSU. Everything I've read and watched from commentators whose opinions I respect (in this space and elsewhere) do not hold OSU in such high esteem.
It looks like they have a good defense. How good? TBD. And their quarterback has improved, but he's not lighting the word on fire. And they have Marvin Harrison Jr.
I'll leave it to Seth and others to determine the threat level (hint: 10...or maybe even 11 because circumstances), but c'mon man!
October 27th, 2023 at 2:59 PM ^
Michigan still has to beat OSU and PSU. OSU already passed one of their two tests. Seems pretty simple. If Michigan beats PSU in two weeks, their % will jump to the top, or very close.
October 27th, 2023 at 3:01 PM ^
Completely understand that, but still question the odds and OSU being on top. 25% chance seems awfully high, based on assessments of the team that I've come across.
October 27th, 2023 at 3:20 PM ^
It’s simple probability, but 74% does seem high as I think they must beat Michigan to make the playoff. Even if that game is generously 50/50, the additional 24% to get in through the side door seems overstated.
All that said, there is absolutely no reason to give a shit about these kinds of things.
October 27th, 2023 at 3:31 PM ^
OSU needs to beat Michigan but only if Michigan beats Penn State. If Michigan loses to PSU, OSU would be projected to win the tiebreaker even if they lost to Michigan because it would likely be a 3 way tie decided based on teams you played from the west.
October 27th, 2023 at 4:50 PM ^
Remember the rankings of undefeated teams are PROBABLY going to work the same when comparing one loss teams.
FSU, Washington, and Oklahoma have to lose before we can talk about though.
October 27th, 2023 at 5:02 PM ^
If TreVeyon Henderson can remain healthy they are a much bigger problem. They don’t have another back in his league and they simply can’t run the ball without him.
October 27th, 2023 at 3:59 PM ^
I'd say 2/3 tests, ND is pretty good, and they beat them on the road at night. I for one am not overlooking that win.
October 27th, 2023 at 5:10 PM ^
ND is good, but not up to pretty good, IMO. Yeah, still better than anyone we've played so far, but they also should've lost to Duke and got creamed by Louisville. Their USC win is worthless.
October 28th, 2023 at 5:54 PM ^
Give me a break, a win against your biggest rival when they have the projected #1 pick in the draft at QB is not meaningless.
October 27th, 2023 at 4:08 PM ^
Win the Big Ten East? Sure, the numbers make sense. But they aren't winning a national title with Honda McCord and no run game
October 27th, 2023 at 4:58 PM ^
Ha, that’s a good nickname, especially with Maserati Marv.
October 28th, 2023 at 1:42 PM ^
The thing about Maseratis is that historically they often break down. Let’s hope history repeats itself. And Hondas are reliable but don’t win drag races.
October 27th, 2023 at 5:29 PM ^
When Michigan beats PSU and OSU it will probably be Michigan with a 18% chance to win the cfp with Ohio state probably at 30%. Because ESPN is full of homers these days.
October 27th, 2023 at 2:59 PM ^
Screwed up the embed in OP.
October 27th, 2023 at 4:06 PM ^
This chart shows how absolutely dumb this Pong program is. If Texas beats Oklahoma, they are making the playoff. The two will unquestionably face off again in the shit Big12. So, basically, Texas gets a free loss, and Oklahoma gets no credit for the win. Anyone who watched their game realizes that it was pretty much a 50/50 game. So, the idea that Oklahoma is anywhere above Texas in making the playoff is absurd, much less 2.5x as likely If I could bet $1 to win $2.5 if Texas goes and Oklahoma doesn't, I would bet a shitload on that. I would argue the same thing about Oregon/Washington being a 50/50 rematch, but in the PAC 12 there are a few more potential pitfalls along the way, and the probability spread between the two is small. That PSU even still has a chance is crazy. FSU should have the best chance given their remaining schedule, and that they can probably drop a game. OSU is probably up there because they can lose to UM, apparently by a lot of points, and still make the playoff, for the second year in a row, based on a win against another overrated Notre Dame team. Unfortunately, for them, this appears to be a year in which 5 conferences might have champions at 12-1. If Alabama beats an undefeated UGA they could both finish 12-1, and OSU is not overcoming that if they lose in Ann Arbor. My suggestion to OSU fans would be to start looking for Citrus Bowl tickets.
October 27th, 2023 at 4:59 PM ^
If FSU drops a game as a one loss team will have:
-The worst big win
-The worst loss
-The worst conference
As a voter I would take a 1 loss UM, OSU, or PSU above them easily.
October 27th, 2023 at 7:03 PM ^
FSU in the worst conference. The Big Ten is giving the ACC a run for designation as the worst conference. If you look at Blue@LSU's weekly post on rankings, the Big Ten is just barely better than the ACC.
October 27th, 2023 at 7:08 PM ^
If Penn St, Um and OSU are on your schedule you arent in the worst conference.
If ass UNC, Clemson and whoever is in that crap conference are your best its kind of obvious.
Everyone plays 7-8 shitty teams. Who is your best is the question.
Bowling Green beat an ACC team for godsakes.
FSU best ACC opponent may be on the same level as Maryland.
October 27th, 2023 at 4:44 PM ^
This playoff prediction model reminds me of the weather models. They are not always right.
These prediction models might be weighing strength of schedule too high. They probably don't account for the quality of the win, margin of victory and personal on these teams. These models are limited by their own input.
As we used to say about computer models: Garbage in=Garbage out.
October 27th, 2023 at 7:39 PM ^
So GA only has a 31% chance to make the playoffs? LOL
October 27th, 2023 at 3:00 PM ^
Probably because they have the best chance of making the playoffs. Win or lose vs Michigan they will get in. They have wins over Notre Dame and Penn State.
If Michigan loses to OSU we probably wont get in.
October 27th, 2023 at 3:01 PM ^
If they lose to Michigan, it may very well depend on how competitive the game is.
October 27th, 2023 at 3:09 PM ^
It didn't seem to matter last year.
October 27th, 2023 at 3:26 PM ^
It would have mattered more if there were any other 1 loss teams to choose from. And USC got blown out in their title game which certainly did not help their case to not get punished for playing in a title game.
October 27th, 2023 at 3:37 PM ^
That's because USC lost, and lost big, to Utah. If USC had won, they would've taken the 4 seed and OSU would've been relegated to the Rose Bowl.
An 11-1 OSU can definitely make the playoff again this year, but it'd depend on what else happens around them. They'd need help to get in.
October 27th, 2023 at 3:43 PM ^
I tend to agree with that and they probably would get in but last years team was loaded for OSU. This years team has clear step down at QB and their oline is bullocks. Maybe their D is better this year though.
We'll see.
October 27th, 2023 at 3:14 PM ^
There's too much other competition nationally for two teams from the big ten to get in again.
1. One of Texas/OU is getting into the playoff (the rest of that league is stinky)
2. SEC champion
3. Big Ten Champion
4. Pac12 has either Oregon or Washington
5. FSU as ACC champs.
So it really feels like theres just no chance for a non-champ to go to the playoff, there's too many other contending teams. The only exception would be 12-1 Georgia that loses in the SEC championship. Maybe theyd give them the benefit of the doubt?
October 27th, 2023 at 3:13 PM ^
This is one year where I would like to see UM beat OSU twice.
October 27th, 2023 at 5:03 PM ^
A lot of that depends on Bama.
October 27th, 2023 at 3:02 PM ^
Their model is ass. Before last Saturday they had both OSU and PSU as way more likely than us to win out.
Also, fuck ESPN with a rusty dildo. Right in the ass.
October 27th, 2023 at 3:04 PM ^
I actually prefer this. I want Ohio State thinking they are the shit ... again. Then we lower the boom on 11/25.
October 27th, 2023 at 3:06 PM ^
Don’t cry it doesn’t mean a thing … THE GAME is played on the field with TOUGH GUYS in blue and little men in scarlet
October 27th, 2023 at 3:06 PM ^
If it uses ESPN's FPI, that really like OSU. No one knows the formula so tough to say why it favors one team or another; a common complaint about FPI. But they also beat PSU so of course their odds go up. It's like rolling 4 sixes on the first roll in Yahtzee. Of course you have a higher probablity of getting a Yahtzee than the player who hasn't rolled their dice yet.
October 27th, 2023 at 3:10 PM ^
I assume that's just because they already got by Penn State?
Based on everything I've watched it's Michigan, Georgia and mayyyyybe one of Washington/Oregon to win it all. OSU and Alabama don't have the QB play to win it all this year and FSU/Oklahoma won't hold up against the defense of Michigan or Georgia.
October 27th, 2023 at 3:12 PM ^
Dan Mullen had Georgia and UM first two out of playoff. I saw that yesterday. I wouldn't worry about any of this. I have a feeling OSU is going to lose this weekend to a mediocre Wisconsin team.
October 27th, 2023 at 3:17 PM ^
I saw that as well. That was his prediction of the first CFP ranking. I had a good chuckle on that one. He had Michigan at #5 and UGA at #6. The play by play guy (Matt Berry I think?) immediately called him out on it. I think Dan Mullen smoked a little crack before going on air.
October 27th, 2023 at 3:13 PM ^
I have watched the FPI predictor for games and their playoff predictor over the years. It is horrendous I can't begin to understand it. Severely underrates Michigan for some reason.
October 27th, 2023 at 3:15 PM ^
Fuck'em.
October 27th, 2023 at 3:17 PM ^
You only needed to watch one game this season to know that is bullshit and that was the OSU/Penn St. game. That's not to say that either team couldn't beat Michigan, but neither should.
The buckeyes convincing themselves that they are some defensive juggernaut only helps Michigan. Add that to the fact that we are so in their heads that they feel they have to somehow defeat us off the field with lawyer ball bullshit--well, they're cooked.
October 27th, 2023 at 3:18 PM ^
Doesn't matter. What matters are the games.
October 27th, 2023 at 3:19 PM ^
OSU has 2 AP top 25 victories and UofM has 0. Hopefully Michigan beats PSU and OSU so it becomes a moot point. Plus I won't complain if Notre Dame drops out and then one of our other opponents sneak in.
October 27th, 2023 at 3:19 PM ^
Oh hell yes, give them all the projections.
October 27th, 2023 at 3:19 PM ^
I'm puzzled why anyone cares. We all know the truth: Win all the games, beat Penn State and Ohio State and Michigan is in. Lose a game and Michigan is out.
The odds are meaningless. The percentages are meaningless. Disrespect is meaningless. Win the games and you're in.
October 27th, 2023 at 3:40 PM ^
I know this may be a little nit picky but I believe as long as we beat PSU and OSU, we could lose to Purdue (hahaha) or Maryland and get the tie breaker over OSU due to head to head win. This is why as long as we beat PSU, I could care less about a potential trap game with Maryland as long as we survive that game with no injuries. Go Blue!
October 27th, 2023 at 3:22 PM ^
What does Vegas say? They are smarter than everyone else. Follow the money!!
October 27th, 2023 at 3:25 PM ^
Don't think McCord will perform as well as Stroud who got the shit beaten out of him last I heard.
October 27th, 2023 at 3:26 PM ^
Michigan +225, Georgia +275, FSU+700, PSU +700.
Espn can suck it!
October 27th, 2023 at 3:28 PM ^
I believe the consensus (for the second straight year) is that if OSU loses to UM, they can still get into the CFP with one loss because of their stronger non-conference schedule (ND). Yes, despite playing a crappy FCS school, ND carries enough weight to overrule that.
The only way for this narrative to change, I guess, is for UNLV to win out and ND to lose a couple more games.
October 27th, 2023 at 4:31 PM ^
Its going to really depend, though, on what else happens around the country.
Let's say OSU loses to Michigan and Michigan wins the Big Ten. The SEC Champion, whoever it is, and Michigan are guaranteed a spot. And then as long as the Pac-12 and ACC don't produce two loss champions, they're likely getting the nod over OSU. And then don't forget about the Big XII champion. If Oklahoma wins out, they'd get a nod over OSU, no ifs ands or buts. Same goes for Texas as well/
OSU was extremely fortunate last year in that a two loss Utah team beat up on USC and knocked them out of the CFP. If that hadn't happened, USC without question makes the CFP as the four seed over OSU. Clemson also ended the year as a two loss conference champion, and with Alabama having had two losses, you really had to give OSU the nod.
October 27th, 2023 at 7:07 PM ^
SEC champ isn't guaranteed a spot. LSU, with 2 losses, is still in the running. Some big if's here, but if LSU goes 10-2 and Georgia beats Ole' Miss, LSU is playing Georgia for the SEC title.