With all the talk about seedings and potential national championship runs, I've been curious about what the odds look like for Michigan getting to the Final Four / Championship Game / Winning it all.
I decided to take ESPN's bracket and calculate the odds using KenPom's Pyth score to simulate the bracket. The percentage in each column reflects the odds of the team reaching that round given the opponents they are likely to face along the way.
The percentages are calculated using a composite of a team's odds of winning against all possible opponents they might face in a given round rather than just against the team they are most likely to see. I think this gives a better overall picture.
Here's what I have:
| Odds of making it to Round #: | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Round of 32 | Sweet 16 | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Title Game | Champion | ||
| SOUTH (North Texas) | |||||||
| 1 | Kansas | 94.2% | 49.6% | 39.7% | 23.8% | 8.1% | 3.9% |
| 16 | Southern | 5.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 8 | Wisconsin | 38.3% | 16.5% | 12.1% | 6.1% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| 9 | Pittsburgh | 61.7% | 33.5% | 27.3% | 16.8% | 6.0% | 3.0% |
| 5 | North Carolina St. | 56.8% | 32.7% | 7.8% | 2.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 12 | La Salle | 43.2% | 22.1% | 4.2% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 4 | New Mexico | 65.4% | 33.1% | 7.3% | 2.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 13 | Louisiana Tech | 34.6% | 12.1% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 6 | Ucla | 51.1% | 20.3% | 5.9% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 11 | Iowa St. | 48.9% | 18.9% | 5.3% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 3 | Michigan St. | 83.3% | 56.0% | 24.5% | 10.7% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| 14 | Harvard | 16.7% | 4.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 7 | Mississippi | 65.1% | 20.3% | 10.1% | 3.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 10 | Memphis | 34.9% | 7.2% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 2 | Syracuse | 93.9% | 71.4% | 50.8% | 29.1% | 10.0% | 4.8% |
| 15 | Northeastern | 6.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| WEST (Los Angeles) | |||||||
| 1 | Florida | 98.7% | 91.2% | 78.5% | 67.0% | 54.6% | 41.7% |
| 16 | Montana | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 8 | Georgetown | 48.9% | 4.1% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 9 | Colorado | 51.1% | 4.4% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 5 | Wichita St. | 70.1% | 29.4% | 4.5% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 12 | Maryland | 29.9% | 7.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4 | Ohio St. | 76.7% | 53.5% | 12.4% | 7.1% | 3.6% | 1.6% |
| 13 | Akron | 23.3% | 9.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 6 | Nevada Las Vegas | 64.1% | 25.9% | 10.4% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 11 | Illinois | 35.9% | 10.3% | 2.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 3 | Miami Fl | 87.6% | 60.7% | 33.4% | 8.3% | 4.0% | 1.6% |
| 14 | Davidson | 12.4% | 3.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 7 | Kansas St. | 37.9% | 11.3% | 3.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 10 | Kentucky | 62.1% | 24.8% | 11.4% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 2 | Arizona | 91.6% | 62.5% | 37.3% | 9.7% | 4.8% | 2.0% |
| 15 | Niagara | 8.4% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| MIDWEST (Indianapolis) | |||||||
| 1 | Michigan | 97.0% | 82.3% | 61.1% | 38.1% | 22.3% | 9.8% |
| 16 | Charleston Southern | 3.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 8 | Notre Dame | 49.5% | 8.5% | 3.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 9 | North Carolina | 50.5% | 8.8% | 3.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 5 | Creighton | 68.3% | 47.4% | 19.2% | 8.8% | 3.7% | 1.1% |
| 12 | Southern Mississippi | 31.7% | 16.3% | 4.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 4 | Oregon | 66.1% | 27.2% | 7.7% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| 13 | Stephen F. Austin | 33.9% | 9.1% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 6 | San Diego St. | 56.3% | 17.1% | 7.2% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 11 | Belmont | 43.7% | 11.2% | 4.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 3 | Louisville | 89.9% | 68.9% | 46.4% | 26.5% | 14.8% | 6.2% |
| 14 | Stony Brook | 10.1% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 7 | Virginia Commonwealth | 67.8% | 28.6% | 10.6% | 3.7% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| 10 | Oklahoma | 32.2% | 8.7% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 2 | Gonzaga | 92.4% | 61.5% | 29.1% | 13.3% | 5.9% | 1.9% |
| 15 | Long Beach St. | 7.6% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| EAST (Washington, D.C.) | |||||||
| 1 | Duke | 94.9% | 70.7% | 46.0% | 26.9% | 14.7% | 6.0% |
| 16 | Western Illinois | 5.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 8 | Baylor | 44.5% | 11.7% | 4.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 9 | Colorado St. | 55.5% | 16.9% | 7.1% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 5 | Minnesota | 85.4% | 58.9% | 29.2% | 15.0% | 7.0% | 2.4% |
| 12 | Temple | 14.6% | 4.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4 | Cincinnati | 78.0% | 32.6% | 11.9% | 4.6% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| 13 | Lehigh | 22.0% | 4.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 6 | Marquette | 55.9% | 31.3% | 8.2% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 11 | Middle Tennessee | 44.1% | 22.2% | 4.9% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| 3 | Butler | 70.5% | 37.1% | 9.7% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| 14 | Valparaiso | 29.5% | 9.4% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 7 | Missouri | 39.5% | 7.9% | 4.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| 10 | Oklahoma St. | 60.5% | 16.3% | 9.9% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| 2 | Indiana | 96.1% | 75.2% | 62.0% | 38.1% | 22.0% | 9.6% |
| 15 | Florida Gulf Coast | 3.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Let me know what you think
