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I've signed up on reddit with the very original and clever name of CFB_Risk_MICH and could use some karma to increase my stars

Prometheus and Anchiale

Prometheus (big) gave humans fire and per mythencyclopedia:

"Prometheus was given the task of determining how sacrifices were to be made to the gods. He cut up a bull and divided it into two portions. One contained the animal's flesh and skin, but they were concealed beneath the bull's stomach, the least appetizing part of the animal. The other consisted of the bones, wrapped in a rich layer of fat. Prometheus then asked Zeus to choose a portion for himself, leaving the other for humans. Fooled by the outward appearance of the portions, Zeus chose the one containing the bones and fat. Prometheus thus ensured that humans got the best meat."

Anchiale (small) was the titan goddess of the warming heat of fire

Minnesota

I requested tickets to the Minnesota game and haven't heard anything yet.  Has anybody gotten confirmation of those? (All I see referenced about are the 2 game packages)

Definitely. I don't have

Definitely. I don't have access to that data but I'd definitely be interested in seeing that. I started out just playing with the bracket and it ended up looking like something interesting so I threw it up here.

What you mention would do a much better job of answering the question that I was originally curios about. I could also look at what the odds would be using a snake setup based strictly on kenpom or based on the averages kenpom ranking for each seed per the espn bracket.

Justingoblue grabbed it from

Justingoblue grabbed it from another thread

I totally agree that

I totally agree that Florida's chances are pretty ridiculous and that they'll come down as the year goes on. I'll also have to check the math to make sure all the formulas are correct, but I'm pretty sure they are.

Just thought it would be interesting to look at how the odds broke down given this is the first time in a long time Michigan has been poised for a deep tourney run. This just emphasizes how much luck is involved.

Also, if there is any interest to see this regularly, it's pretty easy for to update.

Thanks

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Tournament odds

I can't create a thread, so I figured I'd toss this in here

 

With all the talk about seedings and potential national championship runs, I've been curious about what the odds look like for Michigan getting to the Final Four / Championship Game / Winning it all.

I decided to take ESPN's bracket and calculate the odds using KenPom's Pyth score to simulate the bracket.  The percentage in each column reflects the odds of the team reaching that round given the opponents they are likely to face along the way.

The percentages are calculated using a composite of a team's odds of winning against all possible opponents they might face in a given round rather than just against the team they are most likely to see.  I think this gives a better overall picture.

Here's what I have:

    Odds of making it to Round #:          
    Round of 32 Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Title Game Champion
  SOUTH (North Texas)            
1 Kansas 94.2% 49.6% 39.7% 23.8% 8.1% 3.9%
16 Southern 5.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
8 Wisconsin 38.3% 16.5% 12.1% 6.1% 1.6% 0.6%
9 Pittsburgh 61.7% 33.5% 27.3% 16.8% 6.0% 3.0%
               
5 North Carolina St. 56.8% 32.7% 7.8% 2.5% 0.4% 0.1%
12 La Salle 43.2% 22.1% 4.2% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0%
4 New Mexico 65.4% 33.1% 7.3% 2.2% 0.3% 0.1%
13 Louisiana Tech 34.6% 12.1% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
               
6 Ucla 51.1% 20.3% 5.9% 1.7% 0.3% 0.1%
11 Iowa St. 48.9% 18.9% 5.3% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0%
3 Michigan St. 83.3% 56.0% 24.5% 10.7% 2.6% 0.9%
14 Harvard 16.7% 4.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
               
7 Mississippi 65.1% 20.3% 10.1% 3.6% 0.7% 0.2%
10 Memphis 34.9% 7.2% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
2 Syracuse 93.9% 71.4% 50.8% 29.1% 10.0% 4.8%
15 Northeastern 6.1% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
               
  WEST (Los Angeles)            
1 Florida 98.7% 91.2% 78.5% 67.0% 54.6% 41.7%
16 Montana 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
8 Georgetown 48.9% 4.1% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
9 Colorado 51.1% 4.4% 1.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
               
5 Wichita St. 70.1% 29.4% 4.5% 1.9% 0.7% 0.2%
12 Maryland 29.9% 7.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 Ohio St. 76.7% 53.5% 12.4% 7.1% 3.6% 1.6%
13 Akron 23.3% 9.8% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
               
6 Nevada Las Vegas 64.1% 25.9% 10.4% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2%
11 Illinois 35.9% 10.3% 2.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
3 Miami Fl 87.6% 60.7% 33.4% 8.3% 4.0% 1.6%
14 Davidson 12.4% 3.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
               
7 Kansas St. 37.9% 11.3% 3.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
10 Kentucky 62.1% 24.8% 11.4% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2%
2 Arizona 91.6% 62.5% 37.3% 9.7% 4.8% 2.0%
15 Niagara 8.4% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
               
  MIDWEST (Indianapolis)            
1 Michigan 97.0% 82.3% 61.1% 38.1% 22.3% 9.8%
16 Charleston Southern 3.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
8 Notre Dame 49.5% 8.5% 3.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
9 North Carolina 50.5% 8.8% 3.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
               
5 Creighton 68.3% 47.4% 19.2% 8.8% 3.7% 1.1%
12 Southern Mississippi 31.7% 16.3% 4.2% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%
4 Oregon 66.1% 27.2% 7.7% 2.5% 0.7% 0.1%
13 Stephen F. Austin 33.9% 9.1% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
               
6 San Diego St. 56.3% 17.1% 7.2% 2.4% 0.7% 0.2%
11 Belmont 43.7% 11.2% 4.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%
3 Louisville 89.9% 68.9% 46.4% 26.5% 14.8% 6.2%
14 Stony Brook 10.1% 2.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
               
7 Virginia Commonwealth 67.8% 28.6% 10.6% 3.7% 1.3% 0.3%
10 Oklahoma 32.2% 8.7% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
2 Gonzaga 92.4% 61.5% 29.1% 13.3% 5.9% 1.9%
15 Long Beach St. 7.6% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
               
  EAST (Washington, D.C.)            
1 Duke 94.9% 70.7% 46.0% 26.9% 14.7% 6.0%
16 Western Illinois 5.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
8 Baylor 44.5% 11.7% 4.4% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
9 Colorado St. 55.5% 16.9% 7.1% 2.7% 0.9% 0.2%
               
5 Minnesota 85.4% 58.9% 29.2% 15.0% 7.0% 2.4%
12 Temple 14.6% 4.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 Cincinnati 78.0% 32.6% 11.9% 4.6% 1.5% 0.4%
13 Lehigh 22.0% 4.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
               
6 Marquette 55.9% 31.3% 8.2% 2.4% 0.6% 0.1%
11 Middle Tennessee 44.1% 22.2% 4.9% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0%
3 Butler 70.5% 37.1% 9.7% 2.8% 0.7% 0.1%
14 Valparaiso 29.5% 9.4% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
               
7 Missouri 39.5% 7.9% 4.0% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0%
10 Oklahoma St. 60.5% 16.3% 9.9% 3.5% 1.1% 0.2%
2 Indiana 96.1% 75.2% 62.0% 38.1% 22.0% 9.6%
15 Florida Gulf Coast 3.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Let me know what you think

Next year

This defense is going robe GOOD next year. We lose Campbell (easily replaced by Pipkins), Demens (a little more difficult but Ross or Bolden have looked decent in their time this year and the freshman to sophomore jump will be huge for them especially with Mattison's coaching), Roh (SDE was his calling but our recent recruits have been getting high praise so I'm not worried) and Kovacs (huge loss but hopefully MRob comes along. He's looked ok in his time this year). Plus we get Countess back.

In all, I think every unit on defense will be significantly better with the exception of the secondary which should break even. I hate to look ahead with a potential big 10 championship in sight this year but man it feels good to see this team getting back to where it should be.

M 47 - Ill 12

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Prop bets

Tate Forcier/Devin Gardner, total combined yards: O/U 250.5 --- UNDER

Ray Vinopal, total combined tackles, INTs, PBUs: O/U 5.5 --- UNDER

Fiztgerald Toussiant, total rushing yards: O/U 80.5 --- OVER

Will A Michigan Freshman Intercept A Pass: Yes/No --- YES

Jeremy Gallon, total yards, including returns: O/U 120.5 --- UNDER