BillC in SBN on EMU

Submitted by jimmyshi03 on

Bill Connelly's 2017 preview of EMU is up today, in which he is cautiously optimistic, though he notes their schedule may be such that they may have a worse record with a better team. However, he included one note that's potentially important for Michigan, from his 2016 Eagles preview:

"If something big is going to happen, the odds are good that it will have happened by the end of a head coach's third year on the job.

Since 2006, 46 teams have improved by at least 14 adjusted points per game (per S&P+) from one year to the next. That's about four to five big leaps per season for the entire country. From this group of 46, 36 were led by coaches that were either in their first (10), second (13), or third (13) years.

Quite often, we don't see third-year magic coming.

If experience and depth are keys to the third-year jump, EMU will have a lot. The Eagles return their starting quarterback, an explosive sophomore running back, four of their top six receiving targets, and every offensive lineman, and they are loaded with juniors and seniors at every level of the defense."

 

 

SF Wolverine

March 27th, 2017 at 1:59 PM ^

by a game.  And, underperformed by a game last year.  But, both years pretty darn respectable, so not a whole lot of room for any dramatic improvement   With a lot of new starters, a neutral field season opener against a real team, and games at PSU and Wiscy, 10-2 would be an incredibly solid regular reason.

dipshit moron

March 27th, 2017 at 3:50 PM ^

that iowa loss never should have happened. but those kinda losses happen all the time. games that make no sense based on the previous games.  but that is why each game is unique. if totally unexpected things never happened, why even play the games?

   check your history, bo lost games late in the season to teams that had no right being in the games. even harbaugh as a player lost to a minnesota team one year that never should have been able to beat michigan. but it happens.

gbdub

March 27th, 2017 at 3:25 PM ^

Well, we shouldn't have lost to Iowa, and shouldn't have been in a "one play" game in the first place. That part can be blamed on the coach (at least for not getting the team ready to play).

And then you'd hope that "one play" games would be coin flips, meaning you'd hope we win 1 out of 2, so there's us "underperforming" by another loss on pure dumb luck (not the coach's fault necessarily, but still "underperforming").

I think it's likely 2016 will be Harbaugh's best "on paper" team from a talent/experience perspective for his first 4 years, so in that sense as well, you'd have liked for us to at least make the B1G championship game.

I actually disagree that we "overperformed" in 2015. On the one hand it went better than one could reasonably expect in year one after the 2014 season we had, on the other the MSU loss was largely due to godawful luck and officiating, so we "underperfomed" a bit there and it maybe cancels out. 

Blueblood2991

March 27th, 2017 at 3:56 PM ^

Great points. Playing the "what if" game is dangerous.

In 2015, if Minnesota hadn't bungled the clock and Indiana hadn't forgot they had Jordan Howard on the last play, we easily should've had two more losses. I guess you can say the opposite for MSU.

We were on the wrong side of that luck this year. However, even though we had the same record both years, anyone with eyes can tell how much better this years team was.

evenyoubrutus

March 27th, 2017 at 1:51 PM ^

Urban Meyer won a national championship at OSU in his 3rd season, after losing a butt load of talent to the NFL after his 2nd. I don't think you can take a statistic like this and apply it to every situation. I'm not sure if I even understand the point of this post though.

Elwood

March 27th, 2017 at 2:06 PM ^

We were 3rd this year, better than 4 out of Meyer's five years.

Comparing off of wins is naive. The big ten was down for Meyers first three years and he inherited a loaded program. Michigan lost 3 games by 5 points with an average Oline and an injured QB.

gbdub

March 27th, 2017 at 3:28 PM ^

Translation of you: "I'd rather be theoretically successful than actually successful. Losing $10 on a properly played hand of blackjack is better than hitting the Powerball, because the expected value of the former is larger."

Mgodiscgolfer

March 27th, 2017 at 7:17 PM ^

We all would rather go 10-3 than go 12-0 and stay home for the NCgame because we were caught pretending the rules were for Ann Arbor. Oh and by the way, that season was worse than any UM has EVER had.

The way you embarrassed your school last year by bringing in referee's that would ensure another win for you classless inbred truck drivers. Shows how desperately pitiful OSU wants to be like Michigan. I predict you lose this game in Ann Arbor so bad your going to wish you saved that stunt for this year.

But stop by anytime TROLL. Go Blue!

I Like Burgers

March 27th, 2017 at 2:05 PM ^

When it comes to hitting on guys like Bosa and Elliott, I don't think I'd call it luck.  Its more of the law of averages than anything.  If they had three blue chip players and all three turned into first rounders, sure maybe that's luck.  But Ohio State brings in a shit ton of blue chippers, so hitting on a few is the norm instead of the lucky abberation.

Elwood

March 27th, 2017 at 2:12 PM ^

as one of their best ever is like Bredeson being a generational talent. Both were ranked around the same in composite.

The words to focus on are "best ever." Averages don't really apply to extremely rare events like "best ever." Bosa is better than any of Alabama's pass rushers of the last decade. Why hasn't Saban hit on a guy like Bosa yet?

alum96

March 27th, 2017 at 3:12 PM ^

There are no perfect apples to apples comparisons... but I think Harbaugh inherited something a lot more like what Saban did than what Urban did.  Urban had a national power who faltered for a season due to Fickell.  Saban took over a program lost in the woods (Mike Shula was their Brady Hoke) and turned them into a NC winner in 3 years.  Unfortunately Harbaugh is in the same division as Urban while Saban's best coaching peer was one Les Miles.

Shula aka their Hoke

  • 2003: 4-9
  • 2004: 6-6
  • 2005: 10-2
  • 2006: 6-7

Then Saban's first 3 years

  • 7-6
  • 12-2
  • 14-0

With the youth out there I don't see a 3rd year like Bama but one hopes senior Speight combined with a still young but hopefully very talented roster can make that Saban run in year 4 of the program.

elpigeon

March 27th, 2017 at 1:51 PM ^

But has the improvement already happened? The way I read it, the improvement may happen at any point prior to the end of the head coach's third year.

BornInAA

March 27th, 2017 at 2:18 PM ^

That's an obvious statistic.

If you are a new coach, chances are the program was in the dumpster prior to your hire.

Then you improve every season until you hit a plateau.

Typically, a new coach gets a 6 loss team, improves to a 4 loss, improves to a 3 loss, improves to a 2 loss team in 3 years.

It is then nearly impossible to get an improvement past that point as there are very few 1 or 0 loss teams a year.

NittanyFan

March 27th, 2017 at 8:03 PM ^

only 2 coaches since 1998 have won their 1st MNC at a school in greater than their 4th year at said school.

Mack Brown won his MNC at Texas in his 8th year there.

Dabo won his MNC at Clemson in his 7th (full) year there.

Satan won his MNC at LSU in his 4th year; his MNC at Bama in his 3rd year.

Urban won his MNC at Florida in his 2nd year; his MNC at OSU in his 3rd year.

Jimbo won his MNC at FSU in his 4th year there.

Carroll and JT won their titles in their 3rd year.

Stoops and Chizik in their 2nd years at OU and Auburn.

Larry Coker in his 1st year at Miami (certainly helps to inherit a team with 17!!!!! future 1st-round NFL draft picks).

A new coach can win a MNC quickly, that's for certain.