Bill Connelly's B1G East Preview is up
If you're not familiar, Bill Connelly is the guy who provides the SP+ data for college football. He has been doing season previews for each conference, and he just dropped the preview for the B1G East. Here's the link ($, ESPN+).
Since it's a paywalled article, I will point out a few highlights:
- OSU is still ridiculously good.
...while Smith-Njigba will need a dance partner [at WR], Ohio State has a whopping 10 former blue-chippers to choose from. (Marvin Harrison Jr., who also scored three TDs in the Rose Bowl, is perhaps most noteworthy.
- Michigan is good, but there's still a massive gap between them and the top 3.
...it should be noted what ranking fourth actually entails this year. The top three teams -- Ohio State, Alabama and Georgia -- are so far ahead of the pack that the Wolverines are as close to No. 23 Florida as they are to No. 3 UGA.
- Mel Tucker LOL.
Both the contract and the hype have set off my "Too much, too soon!" alarm bells, though. Even an 11-2 season took him only to 18-14 as a head coach, and Michigan State was probably a little too successful in close games last year.
- Noah Vedral is somehow still the QB at Rutger.
Sixth-year senior [!!] Noah Vedral returns at quarterback but ranked just 111th [!!!] in Total QBR last season.
- Corum and DJ Turner made Connelly's list of 10 players he likes, and Zak Zinter was an honorable mention.
- Michigan's preseason SP+ rankings are: #4 overall, #6 offense, #20 defense.
This makes a lot of sense. I expect the offense to carry the team this year with all the weapons they have, doesn't matter who starts at QB. Defensively they were unreal last year so a dropoff is expected, but I'm curious if the D-Line can replicate some of the pressure they had last year as a group. Maybe the entire group can improve enough to make up for the loss of 2 first round picks (would be if Ojabo didn't get hurt)? Probably not but I'm gonna remain optimistic until the middle of the season. That's when we will know how good this team can be.
The biggest question marks for me are the coaching. We lost a lot, including the two major coordinators. Will it just be next man up? Plug and play? Is it possible that we even have a significant improvement in one or the other spots? And is it possible that we have a significant decline in one or both?
See? Lots of question marks.
And if I were a recruit or a dad of a recruit, those would have been my question marks too, and a reason to commit somewhere else if I were committed to committing earlier, or a reason to wait and see what the program looks like with the new staff arrangement.
You know pretty much every staff has similar questions right?
We lost both coordinators and the HC had one foot out the door and probably only came back because he was rejected. If you think every staff goes through that, you're delusional.
Every staff goes through staff turnover and coordinators leaving. Those would be “question marks,” would they not?
If you think I was implying every staff goes through our exact scenario, you’re delusional.
You know, Saban changed his OC like changing his underwear (once a year or may be twice a year). He didn't seem to have the problem of all the things you list above.
Good thing we recruit like Alabama does, otherwise talent might not cover for any coaching deficiencies… oh wait, oops.
I expect the offense to carry the team this year
Respectfully disagree. In fact, I’d bet that once again, U-M’s yards-per-play ranking in total defense will be better than it is in total offense. The Covid year is the only year it wasn’t under Harbaugh.
Michigan is still conservative offensively, and they still have the requisite size at interior DL and athleticism at LB and CB.
Respectfully agree. JH puts very good defenses on the field - in no small part related to the variable & physical type of offense that the defense sees in practice.
The real question is whether this defense has the speed, explosiveness and tackling to mitigate the OSU offense. I actually think the defense could be better at every position other than Edge and Nickel. The secondary could be fantastic, especially with the physically ready talent in Will, Keon, Kody and Zeke. Moore has high potential. Hopefully they develop fast enough to contribute by late Nov like Moore did in 2021.
When was the last time a Michigan team was "carried" to success by the offense? I'm legit asking here.. no snark. Our D has historically carried us, and when our offense put up 50 pts a game, our defense was gash city (see Rich Rod).
Maybe early 2000's?
Curious to see how a Michigan team that needs to score 30-40 to comfortably win will look - and i hope we don't turtle up in big spots, while the defense figures out what it does well. If we are an offensive team, take chances, be aggressive and develop our playmakers.
Also.. who is our starting QB?
I would say '03 and '04 so you're not wrong. '07 should have been but we only got the offense we should have in the bowl game.
Also.. who is our starting QB?
This is going to be huge. Though I think the question is more "how does Harbaugh effectively use the QBs to help the team win?"
I don't care who starts. If McNamara proves himself better, then he should start. If McCarthy proves himself better, then he should start. Whatever it is, even if it's a split, it has to be managed in a way that maximizes talent and opportunities to win.
Cade will always have a spot in my heart for last season, but without a really good defense and a really good run game, he wouldnt be thought of so fondly. He just sorta is what he is which is a fine starting Big Ten QB. JJ has the potential to be a Heisman level / national title competing QB. Feels like Cade is already close to his ceiling
Run game might be better this year than last. Scary to think. The line this year has the potential to be as good as UGA's DLine was last year. Michigan was crushed with injuries last year and they still had success running the ball. If JJ is added to the run game element I dont think the defense is going to be in a bad spot a lot. They should be off the field and playing with a lead often.
I'd put this slightly differently . . can the starting QB / passing game win games for Michigan this season?
No disrespect to McNamara, but the team relied on defense and the run game to win last season. With the defense probably taking a step back and the loss of Haskins, I have to believe there will be two or three games this year where Michigan will have to be able to throw the ball when they are behind in the 4th quarter. Michigan was behind in the 4th quarter of 3 games last year--Nebraska (twice), Penn State and Michigan State. The first two McNamara hit some 3rd down throws and the TD against PSU, but the drives were still very running oriented. Against Michigan State he threw the ball on the last two drives but couldn't finish.
There is immense pressure on QBs who are not given the "starter" position, to perform without a mistake. This, usually, leads to mistakes. I don't know that I like any form of split, even though from a talent/operational perspective, it makes sense. i think that f's with the heads of both quarterbacks. Make a decision, and unfortunately, the other has to wait his turn.
When was the last time a Michigan team was "carried" to success by the offense?
You have to go back to the Moeller teams in 1991 and 1992 to find an offense that carried them to a conference title. They put up 30+ points eight times each season. I went to the Minnesota game in 1992. They scored 63 on Minnesota in three quarters and sat on the ball the rest of the game. Those offenses were dynamite.
Michigan's 2022 squad (presumably carried by the offense) is shaping up to be reminiscent of recent Buckeye teams.
Unfortunately agree with Buckeye Chuck in that our offense will be high flying and defense is a relative unknown at this point.
Difference is, OSU had the horses on defense and was just soft, whereas UM needs to reload - but I don’t foresee us going the route of a soft air raid Big 12 team ala Ryan Day’s OSU teams. Scumbag Meyer always had tough, nasty D-lines, Day- not so much. Hoping OSU is soft again this year.
I don't think the starting defense has many question marks. It should have competent veterans at every position. The problem is a lack of exclamation marks: no proven difference makers. The ceiling looks lower than it was last year, although of course one or more guys could blow up like Ojabo did.
Moeller's teams were... their offense could score on anyone. Again, Moeller is not appreciated by the younger fan. I'd take Moeller over Carr's program, any day of the week, and even later year Bo.
This^^^^
Our losses that year(ND and USC) were predictable - Bo running into stacks and demanding that we EXECUTE. My hawt take today: Moeller would have tossed Grbac into the starting role in '89 the second he proved competent, rather than messing around with that weird option-focused thing we saw most of the year.
Moeller was 8-4 his last 2 years- I was happy to see him go but sorry it was due to his inappropriate actions? This was before OSU was an Alabama level program-
I’ll push back softly against the idea we’ll have to score 30-40 to comfortably win. Our defense always seems to figure it out, and while I’m sure the pass rush will have some drop off (how could it not!) we’re still a projected top 20 defense. I could easily see us keeping the Big Ten middlings (like Maryland and below) under 10-15 points
Our defense always seems to figure it out
2020 says hello. And 2019 to a lesser extent. That Wisconsin game was pathetic, as was OSU of course (Army, MTSU and others were shaky as well).
A very long time. I did this on a per-game basis to see when the last time the offense "carried" the defense in a win in which the defense didn't play well.
It's been since the IU game in 2015 that the defense allowed more than 29 points and the team still won. By comparison Alabama which generally has even better defenses (and hence you'd think would rarely allow 30+ points) has won six such games in just the last four years.
But since that game, the defense has "carried" the team like 10 teams by this definition: ie, the team won despite scoring 21 or fewer points.
But the offenses in RichRods second and third years "carried" the defenses if you consider winning pretty much any games "carried". Those teams were pretty awful all the way around but the offense at least outscored some teams that scored a bunch on Michigan.
I agree with his take on OSU. I think winning in Columbus will require some mix of inclement weather, incompetent coaching, and lack of motivation by some Buckeyes. Just like last year. If they "show up" it will be very difficult.
I dont know how i feel about the first sentence (probably true), but i disagree with the latter part of your statement. Last year's team was far more mentally tough than osu, and i dont care if the weather "helped"... nothing about the weather stopped their D line from getting pushed back like a pile of feathers. Yes, they had playmakers, but stroud threw for 375 yards and had a great statistical game. Last year's team wanted it more, got early momentum, took a few body punches, and then ran it down their throats. They knew it was coming and they couldnt stop it and i dont think that had to do with a bunch of perfect circumstances. I will say, in prior years, we probably find a way to lose that game - but still.. mental edge to the winners (42).. Whining and crying about the sniffles to the losers (27).
It came down to defense, didn't it? OSU was disorganized on defense and couldn't stop M despite knowing what was coming.
M was able to make critical stops on D despite Stroud having a very good performance. The D was able to move Stroud off his spot enough where he became less accurate and prone to mistakes. MacDonald proved how good he was, covering up weak spots enough for the victory, while OSU took superior D talent and did very little.
OSU will be ready to play this year, if for no other reason their fans exert their will for them to play. Progress with defense for OSU will be the key, while progress for offense will be key for M.
I think we're equating two dissimilar things. "being ready to play" could be construed as.. not mentally up for it, not excited, not ready for the intensity and energy necessary. OR... the team was not coached into position to win.
I firmly disagree with the first being the case. They had everything in front of them, just like us. And we took their will. They didn't quit, they just couldnt stop us. Eventually they saw the writing on the wall and our D finally stomped them out. But I don't think they weren't "up for the game"..
As for being poorly coached? well, maybe... it resulted in them replacing their DC, and annoyingly, we lost ours. Yet to be seen if we can even expect an even swap at this stage... nobody has any glowing things to say about minter.
We shouldnt let OSU muddy the waters about last year with the weather BS. The way they describe it you'd think there was a blizzard. It was cold and barely flurrying. Can OSU players not handle playing football outdoors in November? Because let me tell you about how cold it can get in Green Bay, Buffalo, and Foxboro in January...
Theyre a soft program
Yeah. It was lame. Every year they won, they had a perfect weather? Gimme a break.
Speaking of tough... Coach Moeller was as tough as they come.
Amen to that. But now that these guys have tasted victory over OSU I think the mental block that had to have subconsciously existed for players and coaches is gone. Doesn't mean that we'll beat them, but it sure helps to know that the universe isn't against you.
Well we can put the whole "lack of motivation" deal to bed because we know that will never happen with OSU when they play Michigan. They may sleepwalk through playing Purdue, Iowa or Minnesota and play sloppy enough to stumble into a loss or a really ugly win, but that ain't happening on the last Saturday in November. Especially after being embarrassed last season.
All the pressure is on OSU now to respond, because hellfire will be raining down on the Hayes Athletic Center if they lose in their own stadium in front of their own fans next season. So they will be motivated. Of that much I am certain.
I think the strategy for Michigan next season will largely have to be the same. At least on defense. Keep everything in front of you, live with giving up small chunk gains routinely but force them to go the length of the field on long drives, frustrate them into not letting them get down the field as quickly as they'd like with quick strike 30-40 yard gains where their receivers can get behind you, and hope they can stall out enough times in the red zone to force a few field goals. That's where the pass rush will have to find a way home in critical moments at least once or twice. They will have to find a way to Stroud on third down.
As for the offensive side, I'd like to think Michigan will be even better next year than they were last year, but it will be interesting to see how quickly Jim Knowles can get that defense up and running. If the defense can be at least be decent to good, then Michigan will have some very tough sledding. OSU's defense will never have to be more than that, based on how good its offense is.
Agree with the defensive strategy of limiting big plays. In The Game, UM kept the Buckeye WRs in front of the defense. So even though they caught a lot of balls, there was nothing quick strike, unless you count the TD to Wilson, but that was good coverage, just a great catch.
Offensively, pound it again at them, and still have quick strike pass plays like the flea flicker to Sainristil and the over the top to Johnson. Developing a pound back between Mullings and Dunlap will also be key.
As much flak as I've given Vincent Gray over the last two seasons, I don't fault him for that TD. He was in a good position, right where he needed to be, but a top-10 overall pick went up and made a great play.
I don't think Gray could've done anything different or better on that play. Sometimes you just tip your cap to the other guy and say he was better.
It will be interesting if OSU can get their defense in shape. A confident and competent OSU defense to pair with their offense could make them a title contender again. It certainly means 42 would be hard for us to replicate.
OSU defense lost them the game. OSU offense was good enough to beat Michigan. Like you said, if Knowles can adapt quickly and figure out how to coach/scheme them up with great success, OSU have a good shot of beating Michigan.
OSU is still loaded with Stroud, JSN, a bevy of blue chip WRs who likely will step up, and Henderson on offense. Michigan's defense needs not to take a big step back from last season or they'll just bleed points against them. Michigan's offense isn't equipped to deal with shootouts IMO.
Michigan's offense isn't equipped to deal with shootouts IMO.
I think the hope/best case scenario is that, by game 12, maybe they will be. The talent is certainly there across the board.
Also, anOSU's luck generator was on the fritz 2021's The Game. They didn't get too many miraculous things like fumbles bouncing right back into the hands of full-speed running backs, as if they were dribbling a basketball.
they did have their receivers make insane catches but that's more kudos to them than luck
OSU were bullied last year on both side of the ball. They didn't know what hit them but we did.
They were out coached and out willed.
The better team won!
Just heard yesterday that we're under 50 days to CFB again. Kind of blew my mind
Michigan's going to miss Hutch, Dax, and Ojabo on D so I'm sure we're going to need the offense to outshoot in some games this year. I think it's time for JJ
I am hopeful MSU is on the cusp of regressing. They played way over their skis last year and unless Tucker finds another Heisman level player in the portal, that team should take a step back this year
I disagree on MSU. K.W3 is unlikely to walk into that locker room again but Tucker has been recruiting very well and they have shown to have the right mentality. It would be very on brand for UM to just assume MSU will take a step back only to get their butts whooped again
User name checks out.
Marvin Harrison Jr. is a really good.
Two main issues that will decide this season IMO:
1. Finding a short yardage back to get the tough first downs Haskins got almost automatically last year.
2. Finding pressure. Hutch and Ojabo are irreplaceable, not to mention Dax and Ross. But hopefully fresh faces emerge. If they don't, Columbus will be a blood bath and 8-4 is very possible.
I feel like 1 can be solved by not just always going jumbo every single time it’s 3rd and short or 4th and short. Spread out the defense with 11, 21 (especially with a running back like Edwards who you can motion out to depending on the look of the D), or even 12 personnel. We make it harder on ourselves than it needs to be by bringing in a 6th OL and going goal line offense anytime we need a yard or two.
I tend to be sort of a pessimist re the team, but there’s no way it goes 8-4 with this schedule. Only 4 tough teams: OSU, Iowa, PSU, MSU. The latter two are at home and we will rightly be favored. The rest of the games are virtual gimmes. This team’s floor is about 10 wins.