BCS Rankings, Big 10, & Michigan
There is another post about BCS rankings & the Big 12. This post doesn't care about the Big 12, but is about the Big 10 and Michigan.
The current rankings have four teams bunched together, and one not far behind, all at 8 - 2:
- 15 Michigan State
- 16 Nebraska
- 17 Wisconsin
- 18 Michigan
- 21 Penn State
I'm not going to go into all the permutations, but in a common sense way, whoever wins out will be in a BCS Bowl. However, that's not what will happen. Michigan State will win it's next two games, and play in the inaugural championship game. Wisconsin, if it beats Penn State, will also go. Penn State, if it beats Wisconsin, will go. I can't even begin to predict who will win the game in Indy.
Back to Michigan: I like our chances to win our next two games, not go to the championship game, and end up with a decent bowl. I'm wondering if we beat Nebraska and Ohio, if we might sneak in as a 2nd Big 10 team going to a BCS bowl. Or would the loser of the championship game in Indy still be ranked ahead of us?
Well, its just speculation. I like Hoke's attitude: focus on the games on the field, and the rest will sort itself out.
November 14th, 2011 at 11:24 AM ^
If Oregon jumps into the title game after an Oklahoma victory, Oklahoma would be in the Fiesta as the Big 12 champ. Rose Bowl grabs stanford, and then it sets up a strange situation. The final three selections are Fiesta, Sugar, Orange with the Big East champ and Houston still to be picked. Theoretically, the Fiesta could take Michigan and Oklahoma State gets screwed if the Fiesta doesn't want an immediate Oklahom/Ok. State rematch.
I imagine the BCS and TV partners would step in and send Houston ot the Fiesta and allow the Sugar to select Oklahom St.
November 14th, 2011 at 11:09 AM ^
I think that we would get picked above Stanford, there where empty seats at the Stanford-Oregon game and that was a top-10 game at home for Stanford.
Also, even if Houston loses, both TCU and Southern Miss are close to the cutoff to make the BCS, so I think we have to assume that one of UH/TCU/USM makes the BCS. Especially since USM winning out means that they would be boosted by beating UH.
So, here's how I see it, NCG: SEC vs Oklahoma State, Rose: B1G vs Oregon, Sugar: SEC vs UH/TCU/USM, Fiesta: Oklahoma vs Nebraska/Michigan, Orange: ACC vs Big East
November 14th, 2011 at 11:39 AM ^
I don't think you use home attendance as a basis for how well Stanford travels. They likely have a much smaller alumni base that stays local as compared to most big time football programs. Their alumni also typically have money. Those are the type of fans that won't make plans to travel to a home game, but say, "you know what, how often is Stanford going to be in a BCS bowl? Lets go!" The question really is, would their fans do it two years in a row when they were hoping for the championship game?
November 14th, 2011 at 10:13 AM ^
If we win out, I can't see us not making a BCS bowl. Here's why:
We are currently 18. If we win out, that means that Nebraska loses, so we jump them. M to 17.
Beating the #16 team would probably be worth another 2-3 spots, even if everyone ahead of us wins, so that puts us around 15.
I think that we will see a Wisco / MSU B10 Championship Game, in which the loser will fall behind us. Move us up to 14, minimum.
That's just the games that we control. We also have to assume that at least 2-4 of the teams ahead of us will lose at least 1 game. For example, Clemson plays S.Car (both ahead of us), and the winner then will ikely play Va. Tech (both ahead of us) in the ACC Championship Game. That series of games alone should be worth 2 spots for the good guys. Move us up to 12 or lower if others lose.
And if we beat OSU (down year, but still a high profile team and a high profile game), we should jump at least another spot, to end up somewhere around 10.
I cannot see a 10-2 Michigan team that finishes in the top 10, with the whole "turn around" story and Denard (down, but still draws national interest, since many non-Michigan fans to do not realize how far his star has fallen in the last few weeks) not being selected as a BCS at large over a team like
November 14th, 2011 at 10:26 AM ^
You make a good point but I don't know if there are enough spots. There's 4 at large spots and unless something crazy happens the SEC and Big 12 are assured two of the 4. Then you have Houston automatically getting a spot. So it would probably boil down to a 10-2 Michigan or an 11-1 Stanford for the final at large spot.
November 14th, 2011 at 10:46 AM ^
I'd feel dirty rooting for ND over Stanford. But I may do it anyway and wash up later.
November 14th, 2011 at 10:26 AM ^
that S.Car won't play Va. Tech in the ACC Championship game, since they're in the SEC.
Other than that, I like your optimism. I'm not sold, however, that we'll get thrown in the mix for the sheer good story-ness of it. I haven't run the math (and I'm in the middle of grading, so I won't), but it seems that things get crowded when, along with the conference champs you have Bama, potentially an Arkansas team with losses only to LSU and Bama, one-loss Stanford, and highly ranked Big12 teams such as the OK/OK State loser.
I guess we'll wait and see.
November 14th, 2011 at 10:28 AM ^
Arkansas v Alabama is the SEC's problem, not ours. The BCS needs to decide between one of those teams, they can't take both.
I pointed this out above, but Michigan has only been passed over for an at-large bid once. We're a hell of an attractive bowl team, especially with our recent troubles.
November 14th, 2011 at 11:55 AM ^
You can't rule it out!
Sure, nobody's realigned their conference in mid-season. Yet. Why shouldn't the ACC and SEC be the first? Why not merge to form a super conference in November and have a conference playoff?
/s
November 14th, 2011 at 11:16 AM ^
Clemson is arleady locked into the ACC chapmionship game. SCar is in the SEC not the ACC.
(you didn't mention this but I this goes along with the conversation)
I think it essentially ends Michigan's chances for a BCS birth if OKSt loses to Oklahoma on the 3rd. Both teams would be locks for the BCS and puts M into a lot of "hoping and praying" for other people who pull a bad loss to get us in.
November 14th, 2011 at 10:14 AM ^
MSU vs Wisconsin BTN Champ Game. Wisconsin wins and goes to rose bowl.
We win out and go to a BCS game
MSU goes to Capital One again.
Tears would be epic I think from the MSU camp
November 14th, 2011 at 10:20 AM ^
Add one detail: Bama somehow gets picked for the Capitol One Bowl, rolls over MSU again.
November 14th, 2011 at 10:29 AM ^
ughh I still have a hard time rooting against any big ten teams in bowls even msu or ohio, rather them win and make the conference look good.
November 14th, 2011 at 11:04 AM ^
I don't have a problem rooting against MSU in any bowl as long as they have Dantonio. I will root for OSU if they are in a high-exposure BCS bowl, but anything else I say screw them.
November 14th, 2011 at 11:33 AM ^
I wouldn't be so quick to assume 10-3 msu to the cap1. In fact, I'd guess that a 9-3 Nebraska would be more attractive than 10-3 msu. Nebraska fans have always traveled well, and can be expected to travel particularly well for their first Big Ten bowl game. I'd put NU over msu for the cap1, and see either msu or 9-3 psu in the Outback. It's conceivable that the BTCG loser (msu) could fall as far as the Insight. My rose-colored projections:
- Rose: Wisconsin
- BCS At Large: Michigan
- Capital One: Nebraska
- Outback: msu or psu (I'd personally go psu in their first joe pa-less bowl game, but I'm also strongly biased against msu)
- Insight: psu or msu
- Gator: osu
- Car Care / TicketCity / Little Caesars: Illinois / Northwestern / Purdue in some order
November 14th, 2011 at 3:52 PM ^
They will be a very attractive selection over the next half dozen years or so. Besides being a storied program, and one that travels great, they've got a whole new line-up of bowls they've never attended, and it will likely be first time (at least in a long while) trips to these bowl games. And the bowls can get a team that's never played there before. The Florida bowls are probably all excited to have a chance at them, and the Texas one knows they'll travel well. So I wouldn't be surprised to see the Cornhuskers get selected ahead of a lot of teams, Michigan included, in the coming years, especially if it's a bowl that has had the other close team any time recently.
November 14th, 2011 at 11:55 AM ^
Even better if we win said BCS game handily, I would probably listen to Valenti just to hear his breakdown
November 14th, 2011 at 2:07 PM ^
No, MSU wouldn't be crying if UM wins out and get a BCS game. We, at MSU, understand a 10-2 UM team is a great draw for a bowl game. And, we also understand if we were to loss the B1G championship game, a three loss team won't be goint to a BCS bowl. And, MSU probably won't go to the Cap One again. Most MSU people would be okay with the Outback. The bowl setup is flawed (unlike basketball where earn your way through), I, personally, would be happy winning out and having the Rose Bowl--at least we'd earn that. Lose the championship game, and we get what we get--but at 10-3, still a good year.
November 14th, 2011 at 10:20 AM ^
which never happens.
BCS Champ game LSU -OkSt
Rose - Wisco- Oregon
Then, Sugar gets first pick for losing LSU it grabs Bama.
Then, Fiesta gets the next two picks, one for losing Okst and then it gets 1st pick in rotation.
So it will have these options:
At large Stanford 11-1
At large Oklahoma 10-2
At large Michigan/Nebraska winner 10-2
Houston
Big East Champ
At large ACC Title loser Clemon/Vtech at 11-2
Now if I'm the Fiesta, I go with Stanford - Michigan as a fake Rose Bowl. The reason I don't take Oklahoma is that they have played in the Fiesta Bowl 3 out of last 5 years.
It then leaves
Sugar: Bama - Houston
Orange: ACC - Big East
I think the loser if the Nebraska-Michigan has a great shot at Citrus Bowl. Even though MSU might have a win over us, they went there last year and got trounced. And no Bowl is goign to be excited to get PSU. Who is going to travel with PSU?
November 14th, 2011 at 10:29 AM ^
Good lord I would not want to see Houston and Bama play, so hopefully Houston finds a way to lose and not be fed to that Bama defense. I would be willing to bet Bamas 2nd and 3rd string players would beat Houston by 3 tds.
November 14th, 2011 at 12:17 PM ^
Extremely unlikely but maybe Case Keenum and his receivers can throw off the Bama secondary and roll up big yards and a win. Would be satisfying to see them lose their game, and Okie State beat LSU. Payback for everyone rooting against Mich/OSU in 2006
November 14th, 2011 at 10:35 AM ^
I like this scenero but I do think USC will give stanford quite a bit of fight, not sure if this would be better or worse for us if USC beats Stanford.
and while I think stanford michigan would be an awesome bowl, I dont think stanford travels well, may not be the best financial choice (and thats how these choices are made)
November 14th, 2011 at 10:45 AM ^
Oregon still has to play them I think.
Stanford does have a frisky who knows what team will show up ND though.
Like I said it never goes according to plan. But I think the Sugar is goign to be stuck with a Houston/Big East choice vs Bama.
November 14th, 2011 at 10:54 AM ^
Pretty sure Stanford already beat USC in OT.
November 14th, 2011 at 11:00 AM ^
durrrr I was thinking notredame and put stanford....
November 14th, 2011 at 11:11 AM ^
I totally agree... that will be a great gm, featuring the potential top 2 picks in the '12 NFL draft. I could see how that gm could even go into OT.
And don't sell USC-Oregon short either
November 14th, 2011 at 11:01 AM ^
Well done. Now that I look at this, I would think that Stanford is rooting for Michigan against Nebraska, since the Fiesta Bowl would probably not want to pass up a Nebraska-Oklahoma matchup if Nebraska finishes 10-2.
November 14th, 2011 at 4:33 PM ^
I'd love to see Michigan's pass rush against a pass happy Houston team. Especially with the way the secondary has improved this year. Plus mid-major defenses can't stop our offense.
November 14th, 2011 at 10:20 AM ^
I'm thrilled that we're in the discussion. And I'm confident that with our defense, we'll compete against anyone we'll play against. (I'd have my doubts vs. LSU or Alabama, but we won't play either, right?)
Actually, I'd be very happy with the Capital One Bowl. And if we sneak into the Sugar or Orange Bowl, well, that's even more gravy.
Truth be told, I feel more like Bo than ever before. Namely, I want to beat Ohio so badly, I'd rather do that than anything, and the bowl game is just the cherry on top. Beating Ohio this year brings closure for me. I'm really looking forward to what the next two games bring.
November 14th, 2011 at 10:49 AM ^
If we sneak into the Sugar, we'll likely play Alabama...
November 14th, 2011 at 2:09 PM ^
Two games in a row against Saban, and, trust me, Saban hates UM.
November 14th, 2011 at 10:55 AM ^
Here! Here!
It's mid November and we are discussing BCS Bowl scenarios for Michigan. Do you all get how stunning a turnaround this is for the program? You would have gotten neg'd for talking like this in August.
No matter what happens, we are on the right trajectory.
November 14th, 2011 at 11:22 AM ^
I am hoping for this bowl, its the best bowl outside the BCS. I can see us against UGA, USC, or Ark each of which I give us a good shot against. They have all shown themselves to be beatable and beating an SEC team in a bowl is always nice. Plus living in Ga its only 5 or 6 he's from here and I could go to the game. The last one I went to was in 07 in the same bowl.
November 14th, 2011 at 4:36 PM ^
I know that Michigan will never play in it but I think the Cotton Bowl is the best bowl outside the BCS.
November 14th, 2011 at 6:29 PM ^
is the highest paying bowl outside the BCS. It also pits higher ranking teams against each other than does the cotton bowl. The cotton bowl had been around much longer and may be more historic but the payout and the caliber teams that generally play there make it better to me than the cotton.
November 14th, 2011 at 9:44 PM ^
I'll rescind my statement about the cotton bowl.
November 14th, 2011 at 10:43 AM ^
Msu team with 3 losses I'm not sold they'll go to the capital one bowl. A Michigan team with 3 loses will get us to the capital 1, and with 2 loses a bcs game.
November 14th, 2011 at 2:11 PM ^
I've mentioned a couple of times on here. No, MSU probably won't go Cap One--been there too recently. Both sides would want something different.
November 14th, 2011 at 6:19 PM ^
generally gets the #2 BIG team if they are not in the BCS then goes to the third. What he is saying is that with three losses to Michigan's two they are gonna take Michigan. The reason MSU was there last year is because they were the first ones left out of the BCS. Same as Michigan in 07 with three losses but the second place team they were not getting a BCS bowl so second place team ends up in Capital One bowl.
November 14th, 2011 at 10:56 AM ^
Our best option truthfully, is to not win out. Our offense is too lame to keep up with anyone in a BCS game. I would be very happy (not happy, but content) losing to Nebraska and beating Ohio. Then going to a game against some lower level team and winning our first bowl game since the 07 Capital One bowl. This leaves us with a 10-3 record, a trophy, and a happy way to end our season feeling like we can beat bama next season [delusion of grandeur].
November 14th, 2011 at 10:59 AM ^
winning the game is always the beat case scenario
November 14th, 2011 at 11:34 AM ^
No.
As a Michigan fan, will you honestly be rooting for Nebraska on Saturday, since that could slightly shift the probability upward that we win our bowl game?
November 14th, 2011 at 2:30 PM ^
Oh hell no. Of course I want Michigan to win every game. That's why I said i would be content with a loss. I am never happy losing. I just know how I felt last year after the bowl game and I don't want to have to go through an entire off-season of having a bitter taste and would rather go out with a win. I mean I am sure I speak for everyone here when I say, I would be elated to win out and add a BCS trophy!!! I just have been a pessimist over the past couple of years and don't wanna get my hopes up. Its worked so far this year so lets not jinx it lol I'm going to stay negative for the betterment of our team!
November 14th, 2011 at 11:07 AM ^
Houston or Cinci rather than Arkansas or South Carolina.
If we win out we'll be 10-3 or 11-2, and feeling pretty happy about the season.
November 14th, 2011 at 11:29 AM ^
will not make BCS if Arkansas losses to LSU they have 2 losses both to Alabama and LSU. LSU goes to the SEC championship. Alabama is the second SEC school taken with only one loss so that leaves Arkansas, USC, and the team LSU is likley to facei n SECC UGA on the outside looking at the Capital One.
November 14th, 2011 at 11:14 AM ^
November 14th, 2011 at 2:35 PM ^
Take a loss to get a win later. It is a weird thing to look forward to I hear that. Again like I have said I would love to win all our games. I just don't want to get embarassed in a bowl game we don't deserve to be in (clearly it is embarassing to say what I have said in my post so what do I care about embarassment huh :) ). Yet if we win out our play would certainly mean that we deserve to be there.
November 14th, 2011 at 3:59 PM ^
The Cap 1 or Outback is a guaranteed win? I'm not sure Arkansas is much more likely a win than Alabama. Maybe less than some other teams in the BCS. Then you're looking at losing (more closely) a game without hype to go 9-4 instead of 10-3 after a big bowl game loss. It's not like we're talking Alabama or Vanderbilt. Hell, the Insight could have Texas (as basically a road game). There are no easy outs. Houston or the Big East champ aren't gimmes.
November 14th, 2011 at 4:23 PM ^
Yeah, that's true. I just feel like at the end of the year I would rather not get blown out. BUT we never know what could happen if we play a good team on a bad day and we play our best ball game and a couple bounces go our way. I get that. I guess the best way to go about it is to just have Michigan win all their games then I'll be happy all the time. Easy enough.