Ace gives some reasons for optimism about the defense
Ace has an article over at The Bucket Problem giving the reasons he thinks Macdonald and Co. might not only turn the defense around but actually be pretty damn good this year. A simplified version of his argument:
1. Beef: The projected starters will be heavier than even Wisconsin’s traditionally large DL. Even a lighter version (substituting, say, Welschof for Jeter) would outweigh Wisconsin’s (and even Bama’s) DL. Michigan will not easily be pushed off the ball like they have been in previous years. The DL is also well-suited to collapse the pocket and push the QB into a waiting Hutchison.
2. Variety: the 3-4 can be altered to match the opponent’s strengths. M has players that are flexible enough to line up at different positions—shift Hutch down to DE, move Jeter to nose, etc.—to help overcome some depth problems.
3. Dax Hill: He can play all over the backfield (enough said)
4. Havoc: Coach Mac is going to rely on unpredictability to sew confusion among opposing QBs. Might give up some big plays, but can also generate more turnovers to make it worth it in the end.
5. Top end talent: this really is a talented group.
Anyway, reading this gives me even more reason to be optimistic about the defense this year. He’s also put together some really good articles/podcasts about other aspects of the team and upcoming season. If you’re hungry for some football content like I am, I recommend giving it a look.
August 20th, 2021 at 4:45 PM ^
IDK, the CBs terrify me. It's hard to hide bad corners and I'm not sure depth is a strength except at safety. Good to hear different takes tho
August 20th, 2021 at 4:55 PM ^
Yeah, I’m not sure how you scheme around CBs so slow you can just run right past them. The QBs can get the ball out fast because they know who’ll be open before the ball is snapped.
We have one CB who can cover. One. Teams gonna go three wide on us all season.
August 20th, 2021 at 5:25 PM ^
The easy answer is to not repeatedly ask them to cover on an island in press man coverage. And to incorporate zone schemes into your regular defense so when the situation arises when you CAN’T man cover, your players know what they’re doing.
Truly bad corners are just bad. But it remains to be seen whether our corners were truly bad, or if they weren’t a fit for what Brown was asking them to do.
August 20th, 2021 at 5:33 PM ^
Exactly. Add more zone. We're so used to the man to man since brown, that we've forgotten that other schemes exist
August 20th, 2021 at 5:37 PM ^
Zone coverage is clearly the only answer, but it’s not an easy answer. It takes years to learn. Press man teams will use zone as a changeup to punish man-beater routes, badly, but that’s okay when the main objective is surprise.
But when your CBs are so slow that zone is the ONLY option, you gotta get good. OCs will throw zone-beaters at you, and you can’t fall back to man as a change-up.
Not only is it the only way for Gray to become competent, which isn’t a given, the team was barely coached at all last year. I don’t see a quick turnaround here.
August 20th, 2021 at 7:08 PM ^
Not sure why you think it takes years to learn. It’s not difficult to teach, at least not any more difficult than anything else. It’s just a matter of fitting it into your scheme. Eyes up, cover your area, know your surroundings.
The key here is DIVERSITY. Browns problem was he designed an entire defensive scheme around man coverage and tried to stick some zone in there when man wasn’t working and it simply didn’t mesh with the rest of his play designs. Similarly, designing a defense with just zone coverages is going to get torn to shreds by zone beaters.
Our CBs aren’t so slow that zone is our only option. They’re just so slow that when the opponent knows you’re playing man, you’re screwed. You can’t be predictable when you’re not elite. Gray, Turner and Green are all plenty good enough to cover in man coverage. But none of them are good enough to play man coverage on every down. Opponents will figure out your tendencies and build their offense around that.
If you’re only going to play one, you have to be great at it. We were not. If you’re going to play both, you have to be just good enough at each to keep your opponents guessing. Which allows you to disguise coverages as a DC and throw different looks at the opposing QB. Lombardi last year knew we were going to have our receivers on an island. He knew all he had to do was take a 3 step drop and launch it every play. It’s a chess game. Make the QB read the D, read the coverage, and make him make the right decision.
Being just good enough at man and zone isn’t out of the question for this team. And with the talent and coaching that we do have, isn’t an overly difficult task to accomplish. It won’t make an elite unit by any means (that part DOES require elite talent), but you’ll get plenty of stops and create plenty of turnovers in the process for the unit to be vastly improved over last season.
Note: versatility and multiplicity has been the mantra of MacDonald since he arrived. So that fits right in.
August 21st, 2021 at 4:08 AM ^
"Gray, Turner and Green are all plenty good enough to cover in man coverage." Please point me to game tape of Turner being good enough in man coverage. Also, Gray is not. He was a who dat recruit who was supposed to be so and looked it. His upside is limited. If he was some guy who joined football really late, had some promising athleticism, I'd feel different about that. I really hope he's not a starter this year.
August 21st, 2021 at 10:21 AM ^
DJ Turner was getting rave reviews on the recruiting circuit for his abilities as a press corner. And the style fits with his skill set. No, he hasn’t done it at Michigan (he hasn’t played yet) but that’s been the word on him since he’s been a junior in high school.
And yes, Gray absolutely is good enough to play man. He did it quite well to start the 2019 season when Ambry was out. What he isn’t good enough to do, is line up against the opponent’s best receiver every play and for that receiver (and the opposing OC/QB) to KNOW you’re playing press man. He’s not good enough to play man on every play. He’s absolutely good enough for it to be part of his game.
This “who dat” crap is just nonsense. He’s a D1 quality corner. That doesn’t mean he’s an elite All-American that you can line up in man against opponents #1 WR on every play. It means you’re going to have to mix in man and zone. It means you’re going to have to disguise your coverages and throw different looks at the opposing QB.
If you line him up and tell your opponents to “beat him,” yeah he’s gonna get beaten. When you play any top offense, it doesn’t matter who you throw out there, they’ll get beaten when you do that. Most corners aren’t good enough to do what Don Brown asks them to do. Whenever your opponent knows exactly what you’re going to do, they have the advantage.
You mix in zone and man, and you disguise your coverages, and Gray is more than talented enough to be an average B1G corner. Put any average B1G corner on an island every play, and they’ll get torched.
August 20th, 2021 at 9:40 PM ^
They'll learn zone by fire on the fly.
August 20th, 2021 at 7:36 PM ^
Blake Countess was a beast in Zone Coverage!
August 21st, 2021 at 12:47 PM ^
How crazy is it the guys Brown recruited for his own defense are way worse at running it than the guys he inherited? In hindsight I can see why Mattison left, just hate where he went.
August 20th, 2021 at 9:47 PM ^
The teams that go 3-4 wide will bump Dax down to corner. If you read the enemy ranked receivers, outside of Osu, penn state’s receivers are the only group with talent enough to not be able to hide a weak link. Gray played as a freshman and we’re not asking him to man up.
Indiana is 3rd on the list and we get them late. Penix is a crapshoot to be upright by then. Washington was near the bottom. Hopefully we have to show very little against Western and what do they have to prepare for. We can get our corners in mid season form with one or fewer losses on scheme and better athletes than the opposition.
August 20th, 2021 at 5:53 PM ^
Counter point:
The corners will be working in a system that doesn't put them on an island every play like Don Brown did. DJ Turner is also right in that window like Lavert Hill and David Long of taking 2-3 years before being ready for the field. I believe Gemon Green can be very good too, and he showed flashes of that last year. He is also right in that window for being a very good DB, he was forced into action last year with Ambry out.
Also Dax is going to be playing some corner this year too.
August 20th, 2021 at 6:38 PM ^
long and hill played well enough year 2 and excelled year 3, after enrolling as superior athletes to the current guys mentioned.
the D can be a solid unit if they upload the scheme, execute it consistently and somewhat keep OC's guessing. they certainly have some capable guys plus a few potential pros - no need to over hype though
August 20th, 2021 at 6:35 PM ^
People talk about our CBs as if the coaches just picked up a few kids off the street. They are not as talented as our past CBs, and not talented enough for NFL, but they are talented enough to defend most college WR when average QBs are throwing to those WRs. Under the right scheme and competent coaches, we will fine.
August 20th, 2021 at 8:49 PM ^
I think most are worried because it's very possible Gray starts again. He runs a 4.8 40, which you can only do so much to scheme around. I, and I assume everyone else, was really hoping some of the younger guys would show the new staff they deserve a spot over him. That's not happening and it's a huge concern.
August 20th, 2021 at 10:19 PM ^
Except pedigree and results wise, they are the equivalent of kids off the street for high level CFB. Which I feel like is the benchmark for this program.
Gray was the #62 CB, and Green #35 coming out of HS. Turner was #40. Jalen Perry was the No. 23 CB, and has barely played. Being able to defend "most college WRs" is how you wind up being 7-5 or 6-6. You're gonna run into teams where you can't defend the No. 1 or sometimes even the No. 2 option. And then you're toast.
I also keep hearing "we will be fine". What's fine? 7 wins? 8?
August 20th, 2021 at 11:55 PM ^
"but they are talented enough to defend most college WR when average QBs are throwing to those WRs." Under the right scheme and competent coaches, we will be fine. " That is what will probably happen until you guys recruit better corners. The task of this coaching staff will be to be able to effectively deceive OC's out there to not let them know whether you are in man or zone. High quality offenses need to be guessing as to what you are playing. Right now, Ryan Day does not have to scheme for it. It has been too obvious as to what your coverages were up until now....
August 21st, 2021 at 4:21 AM ^
Gray was the composite 702 recruit. I mean, when you say "most college WRs" that includes G5, so technically true, but cold comfort.
August 20th, 2021 at 9:24 PM ^
Have Paige or Motown keep progressing, like they sound like they are, and you can move Dax to CB. Then you have a legit side of the field pretty well covered. Then just one CB has to be solid and you have something.
August 20th, 2021 at 10:34 PM ^
I convinced myself you could hide bad corners with solid DL and S play. But then we played Rocky Lombardi last year and I will stop talking now.
August 20th, 2021 at 4:46 PM ^
Re: #1. Beef is good. But beef needs rest more frequently. Need to be confident rotating 6+ deep so that the DL can stay strong in the 4th quarter. If your confidence is resting in only the top 3 or 4, it won't be enough to hold up for 4 quarters. Just sayin'.
August 20th, 2021 at 4:50 PM ^
This is undoubtedly true. Michigan is going to have to play guys like Jess Speight (former walk-on) and probably Kris Jenkins (true sophomore still gaining the desired weight). Not totally out on those guys, but also they have a lot to prove
August 20th, 2021 at 5:16 PM ^
Exactly. If the coaches can get some decent spot production out of Welschof, Speight, Jenkins, and Whittley (and when necessary slide Hutch down to DE), then there could be some depth there.
August 20th, 2021 at 4:51 PM ^
Beef is good, but they also need to be talented. Just because you have a bunch of 300lbs+ dudes you can put on the DL doesn't mean they're going to be good or effective. Michigan appears to have some bodies, but they lack quality experience.
August 20th, 2021 at 5:41 PM ^
So you're saying lack of experience means they aren't talented?
August 20th, 2021 at 5:56 PM ^
Hinton was a 5*, while Mazi was a 4* coming out of HS. Have you seen that type of talent out of them? No, and that's because they don't have a lot of experience. That's not saying they're bad it's just acknowledging the lack of playing time. We're stuck waiting to see what happens.
August 20th, 2021 at 6:46 PM ^
....or maybe because they didn't have good coaching to help develop them and reach that star potential.
August 20th, 2021 at 8:23 PM ^
I’m not disagreeing with that at all. And unfortunately, Nua is still here. But we have to trust the coaches
August 20th, 2021 at 10:40 PM ^
It’s funny that this is getting downvoted in this posbang thread but will normally get upvoted for being obviously true.
August 20th, 2021 at 10:09 PM ^
Yeah. To me the lack of experience means they have potential. When they produce week in and week out on Saturdays means they're talented.
August 20th, 2021 at 5:00 PM ^
Shut up, man. We're just trying to feel a little good about our team on an August Friday. Preseason is a Michigan fan's time to shine. You have to take that away from us, too?
August 20th, 2021 at 5:11 PM ^
I'm just saying get yourself 6-8 deep on the DL, and that's step 1 to a championship caliber defense.
...step 2 is having multiple shutdown cover corners.
Once you get those 2 things, the rest of the pieces can mix & match in a variety of ways that can result in being a top-tier B1G defense.
August 20th, 2021 at 5:40 PM ^
And what do you know about "championship caliber" teams?!?!?!
/s
August 20th, 2021 at 5:56 PM ^
Hard to debate your point on this one. Big guys get tired. Hell...I get tired watching football and I'm just sitting down (occasionally, I'll stand for something good...or bad...sigh).
After reading Ace's post I'm more optimistic that: 1) We will hopefully compete and beat the teams we should beat; and, 2) We will likely wear down over time against the teams with more octane.
I realize that that is not some revolutionary thought. Admittedly, even after reading it I come away fairly unimpressed with the words(!); however, in year's past, it's been a challenge to know exactly which Harbaugh team would show up. We've been consistently bad against really good teams; consistently up-and-down against good teams; and, consistently and unnecessarily competitive with bad teams.
Hopefully this proves to be a young team that continues to learn throughout the season and builds a LOT of (mental) momentum going into 2022.
August 20th, 2021 at 5:37 PM ^
Buckeye chuck is a nice guy chill out.
August 20th, 2021 at 9:29 PM ^
I want to dislike him/you buckeychuck….But i never seem to be able to. good takes are good takes ?♂️.
Ok enough of that, just puked in my mouth.
August 20th, 2021 at 6:24 PM ^
If our offense can move the ball, which I am confident they can, the DL can get a decent rest. You may have to still go deep in the rotation but your back end guys need to just take a handful of snaps and you should be good
August 20th, 2021 at 7:08 PM ^
The offense holding up their end of this deal is a huge factor in any equation here that is going to yield success.
August 20th, 2021 at 9:32 PM ^
^ This.
It's not 1977 anymore. There are going to be times where the offense is simply going to have to run the score well into the 40's and beyond to win. You're not going to win too many big games 14-10. You can get away with that against the Purdues and Illinois of the world, but that's not going to feed the bulldog against PSU and OSU, and beyond. Even great defenses get gashed once in a while.
August 20th, 2021 at 4:50 PM ^
This tickled me right where I like being touched ? ?
CAN
NOT
WAIT! 〽️
August 20th, 2021 at 4:54 PM ^
I think it all comes down to the DTs and the second CB (not Green). If those two things can just be serviceable UM can win 9 games. Granted, you say the same thing about the o-line and the QB, so that starts to add up to a lot of "ifs", but there is talent around if we can just shore up the holes to let them make plays.
August 21st, 2021 at 4:07 PM ^
Football is a weak link sport. If you have a weak area teams will capitalize like MSU did.
Green, is ok, hardly a lockdown corner but above average. The other 2 are below average. The fact Ace and company say Will Johnson would start on this team today is frightening. Andre Seldon climbing is interesting. He is talented but undersized. Hopefully he can continue to make strides. Clinkscale said although the top 3 have separated themselves the starting lineup could look very different at the end of the year.
More zone will help but zone still becomes man on deep balls. The good news is the safeties will be among the best. Dax will probably shift to corner or help out on the #1wrs should Gray get consistently torched.
The secondary is definitely in the lower half of the Big Ten. They said the same about the linebackers although there is help on the way in Colson.
Based on the early reviews it sounds like the Dline is much less of a concern. If the chatter is accurate, Mazi Smith has made great strides.
So it seems like our D will have; poor CB's, sub-par linebackers, potentially above average to good Dline play and exceptional safeties. Overall probably an average Big Ten D with a really weak link in the secondary.
So to get to 9 wins the offense has to be really good and finally convert potential into reality.
August 20th, 2021 at 4:54 PM ^
I'm optimistic about the defense because I thought they were ravaged by injuries and guys did show growth as the season progressed. That said, I think "beef" is a bit overrated in today's football because offenses are all about spreading you out and getting guys in space. And honestly, blocking is as much about leverage and technique as it is pure mass; I don't know a ton about football but I know enough about physics to say that (relatively) minor differences in weight can be easily offset by better leverage and hand usage. And looking at the two rosters, the big difference between the lines is Jeter is 318 pounds while the biggest guy last year (per the chart) was Kemp at 286. The defensive system has changed so those differences are perhaps magnified, but (contrary to what you've heard) bigger isn't necessarily better.
As for variety and havoc, those are true but also feel like generic things you hear from all coaches. Don Brown was all about trying to screw with offenses with different formations, different blitz packages, etc. What happened was it worked until it didn't, as guys got hurt and some players didn't perform as expected. Do I think McDonald will have different formations and tendencies that might mess with some early opponents who don't have a ton to gameplan with? Sure. But he's got a base system that he'll run and then throw in wrinkles. Some of those wrinkles will work, others won't, and that'll be it. Alabama has wrinkles; they also have 4.5*+ talent that runs a base defense to near-perfection and thus they can destroy anyone they see. I know Ace isn't saying this, but college football isn't like Madden or even the pros, where you have a ton more time to practice different formations and opponent-specific playcalls. The defense will look different but if guys are hurt and don't play their roles properly it won't matter.
That said, I do think UM is pretty talented defensively. I would have liked to hear some corner emerged from the muck as the #2 or even a strong #1 because while I like Green a lot I don't know if he's quite a top-level #1 corner. That said, it's a talented group and should be better than last year if for no other reason than they have more returning talent, had a full offseason to practice and prepare, and are actually able to tackle each other.
It is weird being a resident blowing sunshine up asses guy but I do want to temper expectations a bit. I think the defense will be better than last year, but Don Brown fielded top-10 defenses for basically every non-COVID year he was at UM. That's REALLY hard to do, and McDonald hasn't run a defense before in the NFL or college. He's going to have to figure out a lot of things on the job and he's going to make mistakes in the process. If UM can be a top-15/20 unit that'll be a huge success but that still translates to an 8/9 win year in my eyes unless the offense just takes off.
August 20th, 2021 at 5:34 PM ^
Thoughtful comments on the defense… I’m cautiously hopeful our new coaches and their scheme pays off.
Your comment, “unless the defense takes off” brought me back to earth and has me concerned. The o-line could be good, but we keep hearing we have only three of five starters in place, and the line therefore remains in flux… and we know the o-line has to work as a synchronized unit, which only comes from practicing together and knowing each other’s tendencies. So, if the o-line underperforms what happens to our (relatively) inexperienced QB? And how about the holes that may not be there for our (hopefully) talented RBs? And will there be time for our (potentially) solid WRs to get open to finally exhibit Speed in Space? And for the love of god, someone please tell Erick All to stop with the buttered popcorn on Friday nights before game day.
Go Blue
August 20th, 2021 at 6:07 PM ^
I agree that beef might be overrated on its own, but we're not just talking about any beef here. Mazi and Hinton were both highly rated recruits that should be ready to take a step forward this year. Jeter is who he is at this point, but he's not a liability. And then hopefully Welschof and Speight can step in and add some important depth when needed.
I'm not the kind of poster that's going to pin all of our problems on Don Brown, but I think the havoc that he created became a bit predictable. Maybe I'm wrong here (quite possibly am), but it seems like almost all of his blitzes came from the linebackers/viper (leaving a hole in the middle for crossing routes) with very few safety/corner blitzes. From what I have read, it seems like Macdonald will mix up where the pressure is coming from, and then just to screw with you, he'll drop an OLB or two into a zone where the QB would not expect them to be.
Of course all of this depends on the ability of the players to pick up on the scheme and execute it. That's no small order.
August 20th, 2021 at 6:49 PM ^
Always appreciate your thoughtful comments. I do however want to pint out that in 5 years, Brown had two top 10 defenses based on FEI.
2016 - 5
2017 - 8
2018 - 16
2019 -14
2020 - 115
While injuries certainly played a big part in last year’s defensive problems, they are not the reason we did not have corners or an interior defensive line. While Ambry Thomas probably means a win against MSU, counting on a 4th year player to return and not having enough depth if he doesn’t is a recruiting and/or development problem that a 5th year in the program defensive coordinator should not have.
August 20th, 2021 at 7:26 PM ^
I'm going more off of SP+, wherein they went
2016 - 3
2017 - 5
2018 - 9
2019 - 11
2020 - 36
I do think that losing both Thomas and Collins late hurt specifically because they had stated their intent to return earlier on and they were at positions where that leadership would have helped. Thomas was a third-round pick despite missing the year; that's basically where David Long and Jourdan Lewis went. His absence is significant, and I do think him being there may well have shifted the outcome of MSU and possibly even Indiana. So it's not nothing he was gone.
And while I agree about depth to an extent, UM had a number of corners on the roster and have even more now. I do think breaking in two new corners is tough, especially with fewer practices than usual. Not to excuse Brown but that's an area where Zordich consistently put out top-level corners and I thought that position improved as the season progressed.
August 20th, 2021 at 6:51 PM ^
Please stop with the Don Brown Defense Hero worshipping. He statistically had good defenses IF you only step back and look at averages. So when we hold meh teams to 100 yards and let OSU, Psu, or Wiscy to 500+ yards, well that averages out pretty well. His defenses never won us a clutch road game. Geez. Of yeah....
