'12 Michigan State Football Debate/Discussion/Rant
I’m going to come right out and say it: I think Michigan will beat MSU next year. Big surprise, I’m a Michigan fan that thinks Michigan will win. I think it’s a fair assumption, I think Michigan has a better team. I by no means think it’s a lock like many others seem to be desperately trying to convince themselves. Here’s what we are looking at for Michigan State.
Key Offensive Losses: Cousins, Cunningham, Martin, Linthicum, Nichol, Baker, Foreman.
Cousins and Cunningham are the two biggest loses. Foreman, who was State’s best lineman on a terrible line, was overrated. He’ll get replaced, some of MSU’s injured players will come back, and the line will probably be only marginally better than last year. Baker isn’t much of a lose, Bell is a better back anyway and they have some depth with Caper there. Linthicum could hurt them a bit, but if Sims lives up to any of his ability or one of their other TEs continue to show like they did last year it won’t be too bad. Martin was hit or miss, he had speed but pretty crappy hands, and is probably someone who can be replaced. Cunningham can’t immediately. But WR depth isn’t terrible, though it is young. Maxwell isn’t a bad QB and will probably step right in and be middle of the pack Big Ten. He has a pretty strong arm and is pretty accurate, has potential, and State will run the ball enough to give him some help.
Defensive: Worthy, Robinson, Depth players
Like it or not, and probably a function of playing in a relatively weak offensive conference (this also helped Michigan to a certain degree), but MSU’s defense was pretty good last year. Tommy G, while a dirty player, is pretty damn good. Their D-line has some depth, and while losing Worthy really hurts, they also lose his at least one off-sides a game move. They will still have a good D-line, as they have the required depth at this position. As most people agree, it starts upfront, and they are solid here, probably about the same as last year. The LBs they will be better than last year, they lose no one. DBs are their weakness, and they lose some leadership but get some pretty good players back. This is the area where they lack depth though and could get exposed it injuries happen.
Overall, I think their defense hit their peak last year. They can be a top 10 D but until they bring in more consistent talent they won’t go much higher than that. They have some limitations athletically that make it so other schools can and will be ahead of them, but at least for next year they should be solid.
So that sums up what I have to say about State. Most people will disagree I’m guessing, fine, and some will have valid points. I’m by no means saying they are world beaters. I’m guessing they will be a top 25 team next year though, hovering around 20-30 for the most part. I think Michigan will beat them but that it will be a very competitive game. That’s my rant and essay/thesis all rolled into one, but what you say?
February 15th, 2012 at 2:08 PM ^
Denard is the QB for me.
February 15th, 2012 at 2:10 PM ^
I think he'll be the best all-around QB in the Big Ten next year.
February 15th, 2012 at 2:17 PM ^
In all seriousness, MSU still scares me a bit next season. The offense will undoubtedly take a step back. However, I think the defense will still be a very strong unit, and they have given our offense fits the past few seasons. Michigan's offense should take a step forward, and the defense will stay about the same. Therefore, I'm pretty confident we'll have the upperhand come next Fall, but Sparty has put some fear in me.
February 15th, 2012 at 2:18 PM ^
Did you write the Denard Love Song then?.. because.. if so.. You are my hero
February 15th, 2012 at 2:51 PM ^
Sixteen on the field and number one in my heart
February 15th, 2012 at 2:10 PM ^
you said you didn't follow MSU football? You seem to know a lot about their depth chart etc...
Having said that, I too think we will beat the agricultural college in Lansing!
GO BLUE!
February 15th, 2012 at 2:12 PM ^
That doesn't mean I don't have a relative grasp of some of their important players and can't look at ESPN, rivals, etc while writing this.
February 15th, 2012 at 2:11 PM ^
Hmm. I'm not sure why you think most people will disagree with you, but then again, I'm not most people. I think you are pretty dead on with your assessment of them, although I think they will be better than 20-30.
February 15th, 2012 at 2:11 PM ^
There are a lot of different people in this world, some choose to not learn about or hear anything about things they hate, therefore should probably shut their mouths when they are tempted to discuss and just leave it at "I don't like them". Others get to know their enemies so they sound educated and justified. Either way, we dislike State and they dislike us, and the easiest way to show dislike for someone is to insult them or make them sound bad to make yourself feel better...educated or not.
February 15th, 2012 at 2:12 PM ^
While we're at it, what's the deal with airplane peanuts?
February 15th, 2012 at 2:13 PM ^
They are a team on the decline. That is my assessment.
Back to Normal CLAP CLAP CLAPCLAPCLAP.
February 15th, 2012 at 2:14 PM ^
Most people will disagree I’m guessingMost people won't read this, I'm guessing.
February 15th, 2012 at 2:20 PM ^
and then started scrolling...
February 15th, 2012 at 2:45 PM ^
That explains your Fandom Endurance merit badge.
February 15th, 2012 at 4:31 PM ^
Better man than me. I opened it, downvoted, then went to the comments to continue the love.
February 15th, 2012 at 2:14 PM ^
WTF is this, did you and the guy who ranted about Brian Kelly team up for a super poster alliance
February 15th, 2012 at 2:18 PM ^
Well, Nebraska will get 9 wins, because that's what they do, so our division is going to be yet another race between M and MSU.
Both teams have a lot of talent to replace. I would argue that Michigan has a few more questions on defense and MSU has a few more questions on offense. Now, whom do I trust more to maximize the level of their talent: Greg Mattison or MSU's OC? Obvious answer is obvious. Maxwell is MSU's X factor. If he becomes solid (roughly at or slightly below Cousins' level), it'll be a ridicuously close game.
Plus, not throwing in a trash tornado is a definite plus for Denard.
February 15th, 2012 at 2:19 PM ^
You spent a lot of late nights in your mother's basement cooking that up, huh?
February 15th, 2012 at 2:32 PM ^
Thats alot of information. You lost me at breakdowns by position as most of them are guesses as we all can only do. Losing Baker is bigger then you think. Either way, we hate them they hate us end of story.
February 15th, 2012 at 2:34 PM ^
I more or less agree with your take, but I think you are underrating their OL and also underestimating the uncertainty with their passing game. I agree that Maxwell projects to be about average, but untried players often turn out to be considerably better or worse than expected. The inexperience at receiver adds to the uncertainty. Their passing game could be almost as good as it was last year, or it could be totally ineffective. I think their running game will be somewhat improved despite losing Baker, as their OL improved over the course of the season and heads into this season with much more experience than they had last year. Overall I see their offense probably taking a step back.
The defense should be about as good as it was last year. It will probably give up more yards as the freakishly low totals some of their nonconference opponents put up should not be repeated, but this is irrelevant. Unless something goes very wrong they should be good enough to give their offense a chance to win every game. They will probably still have some losses like last year's ND and Neb games when the defense played ok but the offense didn't click at all.
I see them winning 7-9 regular season games, with 9 more likely than 7.
February 15th, 2012 at 2:34 PM ^
raise your hand if you love the football off-season!
...no one? no one at all??
February 15th, 2012 at 2:35 PM ^
i'm still not sure if this is a 12 foot rant, but it's a lot closer than i would have guessed.
February 15th, 2012 at 2:36 PM ^
February 15th, 2012 at 2:50 PM ^
I could just as easily say that Maxwell is going to suck (he didn't attempt a pass against a Big Ten team not named Indiana last season) because he isn't prepared to face Big Ten competition, not to mention they lose 80% of their receptions from last year, and their leading returning receiver is a RB averaging three per game. Those are just a few examples, but anyone could say the same about anything in this post.
It's unbelievably arrogant to sit and say that your reasoning is better because it's yours, and then give no other factual information beyond that.
February 15th, 2012 at 2:38 PM ^
Alright, so what you've said is pretty valid. Keep in mind that Maxwell is actually pretty damn good. I'm a little biased because I've known him since elementary school, but he has got a cannon for an arm and has the intelligence to understand and subvert complex defensive schemes. That being said, he is exactly the type of quarterback that our defense will maul next year. If we go into an okie package, he can't check into a QB run, and so we will have the upper hand.
February 15th, 2012 at 2:40 PM ^
That sure is an awful lot of words about someone that doesn't really matter to me. Maybe i"ll read it if I get snowed in one day and all other forms of entertainment are not available for me. Until then.....sigh.
February 15th, 2012 at 2:41 PM ^
So you hate all the MSU topics that clog up the board....and you decide to post an MSU topic to stop them?
February 15th, 2012 at 2:41 PM ^
February 15th, 2012 at 2:42 PM ^
Well written and well said.
Hate him or not, Dantonio has built a very strong foundation for that team, especially on the defensive side of the ball. I predict Gholston will be a bona fide All American next season, and possibly a first-round pick come next April.
The loss of Baker, Cousins, Cunningham and Martin will definitely hurt MSU next year, and I think offensively they will take a step back, especially if Arnett has to use up a year of eligibility sitting out. But that defense will keep them in nearly every game they play, if not every game.
The battle for Paul Bunyan will be incredibly close next year, but I think the home-field advantage, and the UM defensive line beginning to gel by midseason, will be the deciding factor. This is our one big home game next year (unless you count Iowa, which I really don't), and Hoke will refuse to let his team lose it.
Methinks Gameday will be on hand as well.
February 15th, 2012 at 2:42 PM ^
Why is this described as a 12 foot (12') rant? It was way too long, but I don't think it quite makes 12 feet.
February 15th, 2012 at 2:47 PM ^
I was scratching my head over the same thing.
Perhaps he thought most mgobloggers wouldn't care to touch this with a 10-foot pole so he added a couple feet onto it hoping to lure more people into reading it.
Where he was wrong is not that people would be afraid of the topic--they just can't muster any interest.
February 15th, 2012 at 2:42 PM ^
Honestly I read the first sentence of each paragraph until I got about halfway down and I scrolled all the way to the bottom and realized it would be way tl; therefore dr. Sorry
February 15th, 2012 at 2:44 PM ^
Affect - Usually a verb. Something is happening to AFFECT you.
Effect - Usually a noun. Something happened and caused an EFFECT.
Now next time I can be a grammar/spelling ass.
February 15th, 2012 at 2:46 PM ^
(first off tl;dr)
But,your whole premise if that Michigan fans aren't giving MSU enough respect in discussions.
You cite some overblown response to my post to you in another thread.
You said O'Brien would back up Maxwell. I said that you should not assume Maxwell is better. I never said he was bad or that he couldn't be a good QB in the B10. But, you rushed to tell me and the world how wrong all us Michigan fans are for thinking he would have to prove himself against a kid who won 9 games and the Rookie of the Year award in the ACC. (You compare O'Brien to Threet, which is just like ...funny, man).
Your statement that he would sit behind Maxwell is a bold overstatement. He has to earn it and his skills in a college game are unkown.
I would presume gardner would have to prove himself against O'brien too. That does not mean I think Gardner is bad.
You can't pretend people are bad-mouthing State and saying they will be horrible, when people are not saying that.
You can't create a strawman argument just to seem rational.
February 15th, 2012 at 2:53 PM ^
Were you part of the reason I wrote this way-too-long thread, yes? But I didn't just do it based on your argument, I've seen arguments made for a while and I got tired of giving responses, so I thought I'd make a legit thread where people could discuss the actual football merit of State.
Obviously everyone has to compete for their jobs. That's what happens at most places, not just Michigan. I wasn't saying that Maxwell would just be handed the spot, I was more saying that I think Maxwell will probably be a better QB and I don't think it makes sense for State to hand over the team to someone who is probably on an even ground as Maxwell who will be gone after 1 year.
February 15th, 2012 at 3:20 PM ^
...will be good next year is shared by most. Only the random fans thinks they are bad or that they will win 5-6 games. Most people have them pegged around 8 wins (give or take).
So, what is the purpose of your rant? What widely-held beliefs are you putting out?
February 15th, 2012 at 7:48 PM ^
More like, 3-4! HAHA!!!
In all seriousness tough, I actually thought they were going to win 7-8 games last year. Not because I'm an MSU hater, but because I looked at Dantonios coaching record. In his first few years at MSU, any game decided by a score, he came up with the short straw more often than not (6-12). 2 years ago, he only had 3 games within a touchdown, won all of them. Last year, he had 5 games within a touchdown, and the only one lost was the Big10 Championship game. I thought he could possibly revert back to his first few years at MSU, but that hasn't been happening. Next year I see a ceiling of 10, with a floor of 5 if they can't transititon well to a new QB, and their DL gets less pressure without potential 1st round draft pick Worthy, and of course, Dantonio loses the close ones.
February 15th, 2012 at 3:54 PM ^
You're so vain, you probably think this thread is about you don't you?
February 15th, 2012 at 2:47 PM ^
My argument is this: In their 2 regular season losses last year to ND and Nebraska, MSU put up 13 and 3 points respectively, and while the defense gave up 31 and 24 in those games, they didn't get lit up like a DII school against Wisco. So I put those losses on the offense. In the win against Ohio, the offense could only manage 10 points, but the defense won them the game by holding Ohio to 7. The offense put up only 28 on Youngstown State and played awful, and put up only 31 on Minnesota, who is awful. The Wisconsin win was, well... what it was, but Wisconsin's D was pretty bad, and I think the MSU offense from 2 seasons ago would have torn them apart.
Basically, what I'm saying is that against the best teams in the conference not including us (I have too much bias but I'd say the D won them that game too) their offense either lost them the game or their defense bailed them out. Making that inconsistent offense even worse next year, by however slight a margin, will have a bigger impact than you think, because the defense will have to be even better to bail them out. I think the defense maxed out this year in terms of how good they can be, so with the obvious disclaimer about not knowing how the rest of the teams will look, I think MSU's record will dip. I don't think they'll be legitimately in the running for the BTC unless Maxwell does turn out to be Andrew Luck, because Cousins was really good and the offense was still not consistently good.
February 15th, 2012 at 3:15 PM ^
...based in part on some special teams touchdowns (or big plays)? The final score might not be indicative of the offensive performance.
Did you know they were the WORST ruching team in the B10 last year.
How is State going to take the pressure off Maxwell?
February 16th, 2012 at 1:32 PM ^
Second worst "ruching" team.
February 15th, 2012 at 2:49 PM ^
Michigan=Moar > sparty
February 15th, 2012 at 2:52 PM ^
You want to do it for the rest of the Big Ten next year? This is seriously pretty awesome. If you need some more motivation, I'm sure we could start badmouthing the rest of the conference, too.
Also, "affect." EDIT: Somebody beat me to it, clearly.
February 15th, 2012 at 3:00 PM ^
The fact that you typed that much is disturbing to me
February 15th, 2012 at 3:08 PM ^
Sparty's defense was better than pretty good. They made our offense look helpless last fall. Their D alone will keep them in most games.
February 15th, 2012 at 3:10 PM ^
Being true blue and living in the wasteland that is EL all I can say is UGH! So tired of all the talk like they matter. Here's to hoping that 2012 brings order back to the universe.
February 15th, 2012 at 3:20 PM ^
IMO, losing Worthy and Cousins is a huge loss for them.
Losing their best player on offense, and best player on defense is enough. But when those two positions are QB and DT, and they are multi-year starters, winning many awards, and your team leaders, that is too much to overcome.
Most of what they accomplished on offense went through Cousins, and most of what they did on defense was predicated on having an outstanding DT.
For 2012, It will be 8 (or more in the box) against the Spartan running game, and Tom Gholston will now be the focus of blocking (double teams) for the offenses.
February 16th, 2012 at 1:36 PM ^
Good teams lose "multi-year starters, winning many awards, and your team leaders" every year. Good teams replace them with new ones. This quaint notion that it will be impossible to replace a bunch of over-achieving 2 and 3-star athletes is classic wishful thinking.