Snake Oil Season - How the class will finish

Submitted by umhero on
My five year old is in bed and my wife is planning a visit to a friends, so I thought I'd do a little web snooping to see if I could figure out how our class will finish.

We currently have verbals from the following 25 prospects:
Ricardo Miller - Early enrollee
Jeremy Jackson - Early enrollee
Jerald Robinson - Early enrollee
Devin Gardner - Early enrollee??
Antonio Kinard
D.J. Williamson
Tony Drake
Stephen Hopkins - Early enrollee
Marvin Robinson - Early enrollee
Drew Dileo
Jordan Paskorz
Christian Pace - Early enrollee
Kenny Wilkins
Conelius Jones
Courtney Avery
Austin White - Early enrollee
Terry Talbott
Terrence Talbott
Will Hagerup
Carvin Johnson
Cullen Christian
Ray Vinopal
Richard Ash
Josh Furman
Adrian Witty - Early enrollee
It is well known that the following players are still under consideration for any remaining scholarships in this class:
CB - Tony Grimes (4 star on Scout/3 star on Rivals)
DE - Clarence Murphy (3 star on Scout/3 star on Rivals)
S - Sean Parker (4 star on Scout/4 star on Rivals)
OG - Torrian Wilson (3 star on Scout/4 star on Rivals)
DT - Big Tex Beachum (4 star on Scout/3 star on Rivals)
DT - Jonathan Hankins (3 star on Scout/3 star on Rivals)
DT - Michael Thornton (4 star on Scout/4 star on Rivals)
CB - Dior Mathis (4 star on Scout/4 star on Rivals)
CB - Rashad Knight (3 star on Scout//4 star on Rivals)
However, there may be a few more. 

The front page of Scout has a picture of Tennessee commit MLB Michael Taylor (3 star on Scout/3 star on Rivals).  Rivals shows OLB Darrin Kitchens (2 star on Scout/3 star on Rivals) as a Michigan visitor the weekend of January 8th.  Sam Webb on his December 18 Recruiting Round Up on WTKA (part one&part two) indicated that Michigan is now in the hunt for Cincinnati verbal DT Jibreel Black (4 star on Scout/3 star on Rivals) and a 4 star DT currently committed to an ACC school (Darious Cummings, Fre'Shad Hunter, Kelcy Quarles, and Shawn Green are the only players in the Scout database that fit this criteria.)  Finally, the Scout premium message board has headlines suggesting that there's a mystery Olineman, currently committed somewhere, that may be considering Michigan.  Not to mention the coaching changes at both Notre Dame and Florida that may put players we on the board have never considered into consideration.

Adding the new rumors to the previous prospect list gives us at least 14 quality players that we are still recruiting. 

This all looks great to me as a fan, but then I question how many of these stars can we fit in the class?  Sam Webb states, in the December 18 podcast, with absolute certainty that the class only has room for 26?  Which means only one of the above can join us without some departures from the first 25.  The trouble with his conviction is that he was the source of the original misinformation that only 25 could join this class. 

I believe he is wrong again.  As I discovered when researching an earlier diary (NCAA Scholarship Limit Review), you can apply early enrollees to either the current class or the previous class if there is room.  We know that Michigan ended up with 21 in the last class, meaning we can apply four of our seven or eight January enrollees to last year's class.  So we can provide 25 scholarships for the coming class plus four to the previous class for a total of 29.  Technically, we could offer 28 for this coming class, plus four for the previous class, but we could only provide scholarships to 25 of the 28.  The extra three offers above the 25 are intended to deal with any non-qualifiers we may have.  The 28 number becomes a possibility when rumors that a couple prospects from the original 25 may not qualify.  Coach Rodriguez might decide to fill to 28 and assume three will end up in the next class (a la Adrian Witty) as either nonqualifiers or greyshirts.

That means we have four if we don't want to deal with any greyshirts or seven if we want to shoehorn them in.  Who would we take?  My four/seven would be as follows:
1 - Michael Thornton
2 - Sean Parker
3 - Tony Grimes
4 - Clarence Murphy

5 - Torrian Wilson
6 - Big Tex Beachum
7 - Rashad Knight
That would make for an amazing finish, that I'm sure most of us would be thrilled with.  I realize Thornton is a long shot, but we're in the game.  It is just as likely that we will end with a player or two we've not yet heard of.

It is exciting to watch the rebirth of our program!!

Edit: The comments section has really got a lot of great information about some possible snake oil prospects.
snake oil
Michael Taylor
Early Enrollees

Comments

brendandavis22

December 26th, 2009 at 10:30 PM ^

If i could pick a top 4 I would like to see it would be 1) Dior (keep the Cass Tech pipeline going) 2) Hankins (further dent the MSU/Southeastern pipeline) 3) Parker (I want a stud Safety) 4) Wilson (We need one more OL)

Joined: 09/14/2009

MGoPoints: 778

Drake

December 26th, 2009 at 10:36 PM ^

I think that the mystery OL Sam Webb has said on the RR may be Robert Crisp, which would be a unbelievable get (5 stars to both). Im not sure if he is who Sam Webb was talking about but I remember we were in great shape for his recruitment but then he surprised everyone and committed to NC State early on.

Joined: 07/30/2009

MGoPoints: 15

umhero

December 26th, 2009 at 11:20 PM ^

Sam Webb said it was a defensive tackle, but the Scout board is talking about a mystery OL. I think there are two players one DL and one OL. I'd love for one to be Crisp.

Joined: 07/26/2009

MGoPoints: 2894

umhero

December 27th, 2009 at 1:10 AM ^

I just listened to the podcast again and in part one on December 18 at the 6:31 mark he says, "we also have another defensive tackle that's committed to another school...ACC country." I think it would be great if there's an OT also, but he did say DT on the broadcast. I was thinking it might be DT Fre'Shad Hunter, since Michigan offered him back in May. He's committed to NC State now.

Joined: 07/26/2009

MGoPoints: 2894

jb

December 26th, 2009 at 11:06 PM ^

How might this news affect UF's recruits? Wilson, etc. Might be good news for the Wolverines. MCAAHNY merry christmas and a happy new year! My new internet slang addition. JB

Joined: 07/25/2008

MGoPoints: 7

The Other Brian

December 29th, 2009 at 12:51 AM ^

It's not Schofner. He didn't commit early, and he has/had anti-UM voices in his ear. As for it being UM recruiting themselves into the picture, that seems to be how it's going. The word is UM got into contact and there has been renewed interest. We should see how things develop over the next few weeks.

Joined: 06/30/2008

MGoPoints: 1420

Noahdb

December 27th, 2009 at 8:09 AM ^

I can tell you that Rob Crisp is not going to Michigan. He's never once wavered. And unless you're going to take his step-brother (you're not...he's not even NAIA-level), you aren't getting him. And unless you're going to move your home games close enough for his step-parents to drive to the games, you aren't getting him. I'd LOVE for you to snag James Hurst. That would be wonderful on many levels. However, UNC lost their prep school OL recruit from last year so Hurst is pretty much their main priority at this point. Unless you guys are snagging one of their coaches (like...James Blake), I don't know how you're going to get Hurst. He committed early and I've never seen anything about him wavering at all. Fre'Shard Hunter is not going to qualify this year. He's going to come up shy on necessary credits (I'm not sure where he is on his SATs). There's even been some talk that he is going to need JUCO instead of a year of prep school. So...even if you get a commitment, it doesn't really help you. He's also a DE, not a DT.

Joined: 07/21/2008

MGoPoints: 477

jaggs

December 27th, 2009 at 12:26 PM ^

Check the 'Jake Hurst reminds us of....' http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/recruiting/player-James-Hurst-857… I'll give you a hint...his name is also Jake. We need this guy. What a get it would be. Also from his rivals: "He is one of the toughest and meanest linemen in the country. He thinks nothing of using his hands as battering rams and smashing any spot on the opponent's body." GET TO ANN ARBOR NOW.

Joined: 02/03/2009

MGoPoints: 4842

Blue_Bull_Run

December 27th, 2009 at 11:13 AM ^

I like your list, except that I thought Thornton was an unlikely commit. My most realistic guess is: 1) Grimes 2) Murphy 3) Parker 4) Wilson 5) Hankins And I'm fine with that. That class would help our defensive depth out a lot, and it would be pretty good quality, too.

Joined: 11/25/2008

MGoPoints: 4415

geoffd

December 27th, 2009 at 12:46 PM ^

while Urban Meyer may not directly help recruiting at this specific point, what if Bob Stoops was to get named the head Coach of Florida is there any way the snake oil would come out on Tony Jefferson(have to come soon since he is an early enrollee), kenny stills,and Brennan Clay(Tate's H.S. teammate) and any other possible OU recruits.

Joined: 11/13/2009

MGoPoints: 16

mejunglechop

December 27th, 2009 at 2:21 PM ^

As far as scholarship numbers go, no matter how we play with the 25 limit, we still only have room for 27 before we start going over the 85 threshold.

Joined: 07/09/2008

MGoPoints: 6618

umhero

December 27th, 2009 at 2:44 PM ^

No offense but have you reviewed the roster? There are 48 non-fifth year, scholarship players returning. If Kovacs gets a scholarship then that's 49. If we sign 29 then 49 plus 29 equals 78. 85 minus 78 leaves seven spots for fifth years. We have ten fifth years who may or may not be asked back and seven spots for them. Pick your favorite seven listed below: Sheridan Cone Schilling Dorrestein Ferrara Banks Patterson Ezeh Mouton Wright Say goodbye to Cone and Wright, and tell Sheridan he can pay his own way (since he was a walkon) or become a GA. That gets you to 85. If you want to save a spot for Cissoko to come back say goodbye to Ferrara, Banks, or Patterson. We can certainly sign 29 if we want depending on how flexible we are with fifth years and walkon scholarships.

Joined: 07/26/2009

MGoPoints: 2894

umhero

December 27th, 2009 at 4:59 PM ^

As a follow up to my previous post, I thought I would extrapolate how many scholarships we will have to give away next season. Assuming we take 29 recruits this season, and bring back the seven fifth years from my previous post then the seniors leaving next season would be as follows: 1 - Schilling 2 - Dorrestein 3 - Ferrara 4 - Banks 5 - Patterson 6 - Ezeh 7 - Mouton 8 - Rogers 9 - Webb 10 - Sagesse 11 - Evans 12 - Woolfolk Those 12 slots would open plus however many of the following fifth years we don't bring back: 1 - Hemingway 2 - Huyge 3 - Molk 4 - Van Bergen 5 - Watson 6 - Williams That means that we will have between 12 and 18 scholarships not including any unexpected departures.

Joined: 07/26/2009

MGoPoints: 2894

umhero

December 27th, 2009 at 10:05 PM ^

The coaching staff will have to refrain from offering anyone but the elite early. We already have a commitment from CB Greg Brown. We expect a commit from Demetrius Hart soon. That wouldn't leave very many openings. According to Scout, we have already offered 21 players for the 2011 class. They only list 45 offers for the 2010 class. I'm sure that their numbers are off a little, but it is concerning.

Joined: 07/26/2009

MGoPoints: 2894

jbibiza

December 28th, 2009 at 11:28 AM ^

With regard to a scholarship for Kovacs in the coming season I am quite certain that walk-ons have to earn theirs every year - no guarantees. If there are free spaces under the 85 limit due to attrition then walk-ons are given one year scholarships as available, but that does not carry over to the next season. All of our "former" walk-ons will have to wait and see until this Autumn to find out if any are available for them. Even Moundros, who is our only real fullback will have to wait. So none of these guys count against the 85 limit. The only one that I am not certain about is Kelvin Grady. I do not think that he has a regular scholarship, but some kind of a deal may have been made for him. Clearly Wright and Cone are gone, and Sheridan can pay if he wants to come back. Patterson is expendable, but I do not think the coaches will let go of either Ferrara or Banks as they both play positions with limited depth (especially Banks).

Joined: 10/08/2009

MGoPoints: 7391

ldoublee

December 27th, 2009 at 9:36 PM ^

is not any of the guys you listed above. I can tell you that for certain. In fact, the player was PREVIOUSLY committed to an ACC school, but has since decommitted and committed elsewhere. The committment is not seen as solid, so he could in fact do so again (to the good guys, of course)...nothing close to a sure thing, but it's a "could happen".

Joined: 06/22/2009

MGoPoints: 5550

umhero

December 27th, 2009 at 9:53 PM ^

Good information. It looks like there's only one player that could be. Sam Webb indicated that if this gets out there too much it may not happen so I won't post his name. He is a 4 star on both sites; ranked in the top 20 at his position on both sites. I'm sure he'd be a welcome addition.

Joined: 07/26/2009

MGoPoints: 2894

ldoublee

December 27th, 2009 at 10:08 PM ^

I can say that the name is "out there" on the scout premium board...so I don't think it's completely on the hush-hush. That being said, I'm a little surprised that his rating is so high considering the size limitations. However, if one is rated that high while lacking ideal size, I think it means that the player is damn good.

Joined: 06/22/2009

MGoPoints: 5550

umhero

December 27th, 2009 at 10:14 PM ^

I just realized there are two DTs who recently decommitted from the same ACC school and committed to new schools. One is 6'0 310 and the other is 6'3 315. While the first is ranked in the top 20 on both sites, the second is in the top 15 on both sites. I assume it's the first guy based on several articles. It will be interesting to watch.

Joined: 07/26/2009

MGoPoints: 2894

mejunglechop

December 27th, 2009 at 10:21 PM ^

I just went through that same process and at first also thought it was more likely to be player one, but after further investigation I found that player two was actually offered by us earlier in the process, whereas I'd never heard player one before. Regardless, they both look like great prospects.

Joined: 07/09/2008

MGoPoints: 6618