Michigan's bad Big 10 scheduling luck
If you are placing a bet on who you will think will win the Big Ten, you might want to avoid betting on Northwestern or Minnesota. If someone offers you the under-over on wins, take the under. Is it because of who they lose off of the 2-deep? Is it because of coaching or talent? No.
Why then? It is because they don't play Michigan this year. Now, you might think that not playing Michigan is usually good for your record, but for some reason, history demonstrates the opposite. Michigan has an uncanny knack for playing Big Ten teams when they are good, and avoiding them when they are really really bad. It's almost as if the schedule is made up by somebody who has magical foresight and then purposely rotates the bad teams off of Michigan's schedule. Michigan already has a tough draw by facing Ohio State every year. In addition, our game with Penn State is like a de facto protected rivalry. Because of all of these factors, we have one of the toughest intra-conference schedules on a yearly basis.
Since the Big Ten expanded in 1993, there have been 16 seasons, and 2 teams rotate off of the schedule each season. Do the math, and that means that there have been 32 Big 10 teams that have rotated off of our schedule. Want to take a guess as to how many of those teams have ever won or shared a conference title? The answer -- none. 16 years, and not once has a team won or shared a title in a year where they did not play Michigan. Even though we frequently rotate off the doormats of the league like Indiana, wouldn't you think that just once out of all those times, somebody would have stepped up and won or shared a championship? Nobody has ever won 7 conference games, and only four times has somebody won 6 conference games (1996 Iowa, 1997&1998 Purdue, and 2004 Wisconsin). Since 1993, we are sporting an impressive .727 Big 10 winning percentage, but nobody has ever take advantage of not playing us to go to a BCS Bowl. Nobody has ever even made it to the Citrus Bowl! Only two teams have made it as high as the Outback Bowl (Wisconsin '04, Iowa '08).
Let's compare winning percentages for various programs when they play Michigan against their winning percentages when they don't play Michigan. For this analysis, I am only using Big 10 winning percentage, since non-conference scheduling has so much variation that it can distort the results. For the "did play Michigan" years, the head-to-head game against Michigan is removed from the analysis so that these years can be validly compared to the "did not play Michigan" years.
Wisconsin:
Winning percentages in the "did not play Michigan" years: .500
Winning percentages in the "did play Michigan" years: .643
Indiana:
Winning percentages in the "did not play Michigan" years: .354
Winning percentages in the "did play Michigan" years: .214
Illinois:
Winning percentages in the "did not play Michigan" years: .094
Winning percentages in the "did play Michigan" years: .440
Penn State:
Winning percentages in the "did not play Michigan" years: .188
Winning percentages in the "did play Michigan" years: .745
Iowa:
Winning percentages in the "did not play Michigan" years: .458
Winning percentages in the "did play Michigan" years: .586
Minnesota:
Winning percentages in the "did not play Michigan" years: .563
Winning percentages in the "did play Michigan" years: .316
Purdue:
Winning percentages in the "did not play Michigan" years: .625
Winning percentages in the "did play Michigan" years: .429
Northwestern:
Winning percentages in the "did not play Michigan" years: .156
Winning percentages in the "did play Michigan" years: .536
Total:
Winning percentages in the "did not play Michigan" years: .371
Winning percentages in the "did play Michigan" years: .494
There are a few teams that slightly buck the trend, but that trend is overwhelming. Now I'm not an expert statistician, but a difference in winning percentages of .123 with a huge sample of 8 teams over 16 seasons has to be very significant. Remember in 2003 when we thought we were finally getting a break by having Penn State rotate off of our schedule for 2 years? They went 3-13 in those two years. Ouch. Joe Paterno has never had a losing conference record except for when he has avoided playing Michigan. The differences for Illinois and Northwestern are drastic too. Illinois' conference record when they avoid us is a futile 3-29. Northwestern's is 5-27. We have played all of Kirk Frerentz's great teams from 2002-2004, and other than 2004, we played all of Barry Alvarez's best teams too.
What's the point of all this? None, I guess, except that for some reason, Michigan usually misses teams when they are down and plays them when they are up. Since we don't play Northwestern and Minnesota this year, look for those teams to inexplicably suck.
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Minnesota & Northwestern (off this year + next)
Iowa & Indiana (off '08 + '07)
Illinois & Purdue (off '06 + '05)
Penn St & Wisconsin (off '04 + '03)
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Iowa did last year, IIRC,; and seem to recall Purdue a few years back.
Oddly, those teams don't do as well overall. Perhaps they're not as motivated over the summer and in practice. It's wierd.
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No | Team | Conf | Overall |
---|---|---|---|
1 | Michigan | 7-1 | 10-3 |
2 | Ohio State | 6-2 | 11-2 |
3 | Purdue | 6-2 | 9-4 |
4 | Iowa | 5-3 | 10-3 |
5 | Michigan State | 5-3 | 8-5 |
6 | Minnesota | 5-3 | 10-3 |
7 | Wisconsin | 4-4 | 7-6 |
8 | Northwestern | 4-4 | 6-7 |
9 | Penn State | 1-7 | 3-9 |
10 | Indiana | 1-7 | 2-10 |
11 | Illinois | 0-8 | 1-11 |
Team | Conf | Overall |
---|---|---|
Iowa | 7-1 | 10-2 |
Michigan | 7-1 | 9-3 |
Wisconsin | 6-2 | 9-3 |
Northwestern | 5-3 | 6-6 |
Ohio State | 4-4 | 8-4 |
Purdue | 4-4 | 7-5 |
Michigan | 4-4 | 5-7 |
Minnesota | 3-5 | 7-5 |
Penn | 2-6 | 4-7 |
Illinois | 1-7 | 3-8 |
Indiana | 1-7 | 3-8 |
Year | Wisconsin | Penn State |
---|---|---|
1993 | W | L |
1994 | W | W |
1995 | L | W |
1996 | L | W |
1997 | L | L |
1998 | L | L |
1999 | L | L |
2000 | L | L |
2001 | L | L |
2002 | L | L |
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