Iowatch! (B1G Championship Edition) - Altering the Deal

Submitted by PopeLando on December 4th, 2023 at 9:17 AM

Iowa thought they had made a deal: everyone plays decent defense, nobody plays anything resembling a good offense, and let the cards fall where they may. Whover backs their way into the B1G Championship, good for them.

Except that Michigan altered the deal. Then they altered it further. Then they took over Cloud City and left a garrison. Michigan State attempted to kidnap Han Solo at some point, but Boba Fett laid an ambush and blew him up. Wait. Is Michigan State IG-88 in this metaphor, or are they Dengar? Dengar was also in Cloud City, but sorta just chilled having a beer and never really interacted with the main characters. At least he found true love at the end…but it didn’t end after 2 years nor cost $80M. Hmm. Michigan State is not Dengar.

Michigan State is Bossk. Bossk, as we know, was there when the bounty was announced and therefore was theoretically as capable of finding the Millenium Falcon as anyone. But he got tricked and chose the wrong partners, who had priorities of their own, and he ended up nowhere near Han Solo while his ‘partners’ stole his ship and left him in Imperial prison. He’s also a green lizard who prides himself on his “toughness” but really that just means “indiscriminately violent”, and he isn’t very smart. He killed Corran Horn’s dad; I liked Corran Horn’s dad, dammit. Screw that lizard - Michigan State is Bossk until further notice.

I forgot where I was going with this.

Championship Week Update

One-Sentence* Summary:

So much pain. (RIP Tasha)

Win or lose, Iowa games are painful. Anyone who was surprised about how this game went has not been reading Iowatch. I understand that’s most of you…but, umm…shame on most of you. I informed you thusly. Kirk Ferentz’s trophy room is littered with corpses of OCs who thought to themselves “that #1 defense is a mirage; certainly that won’t happen against my team!” and ended up having their QBs throw the ball straight to a Hawkeye in coverage.

And I’m not saying that Kirk Ferentz is DEFINITELY hunting OCs like he’s General Zaroff in "The Most Dangerous Game." I’m just saying that he stalks the sideline muttering “life is for the strong”, and that his lake home recently added a suspiciously Walt Bell-shaped rug to the foyer.

When playing against Iowa, everyone becomes Iowa (complete with a case of the dropsies). The fact that this game was never even remotely in doubt means that, for the first time, someone out-Iowa’d Iowa.

Stop, Stop! He’s Already Dead

There we are. Last year’s 17.7 ppg, which got “Offensive” “Coordinator” “Brian” Ferentz, soon to be Just Brian Thanks, his Brian Ferentz Clause™, just went wooshing by on the way to the bottom of the barrel.

Hey, want to guess how many Big Ten teams have exceeded 25 points per game? Four. Zero in the B1G West. Ye gods.

Want to guess how many Big Ten teams underperformed the Feren-doza Line (19.5 ppg, Iowa’s ppg when his ‘firing’ was announced)? Three.

Want to guess how many Big Ten teams scored LESS ppg than Iowa? One. Lol Sparty.

Punting is Winning

Iowa’s drive chart: punt, punt, punt, punt, fumble, punt, punt, fumble, downs, punt, fumble, downs, downs, sweet release of death.

Both teams did a whooooooole lotta winning this game: Iowa had 7 wins for 353 yards, Michigan had 6 wins for 254 yards. That’s a combined 13 wins for 607 yards.

Do I feel bad making a joking reference to a celebrity’s mental health episode from 12 years ago? Kinda, yeah. We need to be better as a society about getting public figures the help they need instead of mocking them. Do I forgive Charlie Sheen for opening the door to having Ashton f’ing Kutcher on Two and Half Men? No. And I didn’t even particularly like that show! Nobody should have to endure more Ashton. Especially Jon Cryer – I know he’s got a new show and has finally embraced his baldness, but dude between the Charlie Sheen Experience and the Ashton Kutcher Experience, he got the short end of the stick. At least he got paid – over half a million per episode – for his trouble.

RB Receptions are Moneyball, Dammit

Iowa: 3 RB/FB receptions for 11 yards. Lost.

Michigan: 7 RB receptions for 29 yards. Won.

Just sayin’…

One-Phase Football

Ladies and Gentlemen and Boys and Girls and Purple Polka Dotted Tentacled Aliens from Wolf 359, may I present to you the 127th ranked offense in the nation.

With one game to go, Iowa has sole possession of 4th place in “The Most Mismatched Offenses and Defenses in the History of College Football.” It’s only going to take one more Iowa Football showing in the bowl game to carve 2023 Iowa into history. Third place is in reach. Reminder that last year, Iowa beat Kentucky 21-0 in the Music City Bowl, virtue of a single TD pass…and two pick-sixes.

This is happening.

Hey, It Could Be Worse

Nebraska and Michigan State have the 123rd and 122nd ranked offenses, respectively.

USC and North Texas have achieved Inverse Iowas, or “AWOI” as it’s been coined, which I like better because “AWOI” is already plural, courtesy of the 109th and 133rd ranked defense, respectively.

Comments

PopeLando

December 4th, 2023 at 9:18 AM ^

Michigan takes over the #1 spot in SP+ defense for the 2nd time this season, but I don’t want to minimize Iowa’s current defensive rating: Iowa’s defense, even AFTER this game, is rated better than the 1996 Michigan defense. The 1995 Michigan defense. The 2006 Michigan defense. The 2017 Michigan defense.

Do you remember what those defenses did to people? Even really good opponents? That’s what just happened to Michigan. The only Michigan defense in recent memory better than Iowa’s current defense is the 1997 team. Also the 1985 team. THAT’S IT. They are REALLY REALLY good. Like, go-down-in-history good.

If anyone wants receipts, I pulled a quote from every single Iowatch that warned us of how good their defense is. I informed you thusly. I SO informed you thusly.

PopeLando

December 5th, 2023 at 8:13 PM ^

I have my Iowatch Bowl Edition already in the works. These take time and planning, two things I didn’t put into Texts With Harbaugh…

We also might do a Season Retrospective. If Ferentz the Younger gets fired but the OL and WR position coaches DON’T, I may have a meltdown rivaling B-Fer’s from Saturday.

Ballislife

December 4th, 2023 at 9:28 AM ^

Well done, PopeLando! Your service this season has not been overlooked, and I for one hope you choose to continue this saga next year. You're definitely getting better as each week goes by; the references and jokes made in this one were some of your funniest material yet!

In regards to the actual content, I am very glad Iowa's defense actually looked legit and not inflated by playing the dregs that is the B1G West. I think that gave Michigan a good reality check, especially now that we know Bama is on the horizon in four weeks. 

PopeLando

December 4th, 2023 at 9:52 AM ^

Thank you!!

...maybe. I loved doing this, but 1) Iowa wins and loses games in exactly one way, and I can see that getting stale, 2) if Iowa's offense improves, they're not as interesting nor funny, and 3) we have a bit of a Diary overload going, and I don't enjoy being the person to push others' good work off the front page. Diary readership is miniscule enough as is.

We'll see. Depending on how things go this offseason, Minnesota's looming "wait, CAN we win games without a QB" offense might be interesting.

PopeLando

December 4th, 2023 at 9:43 AM ^

Thank you!

Oh man, I got a RANT. Kutcher's acting has always been so-so; he's like a less-charismatic and less-talented version of Ryan Reynolds in that he always plays a version of the same semi-annoying character. I guess that's ok. Lots of actors do that.

He just seems like a top tier asshole in real life. Between his very gross treatment of his costars on That 70s Show (hard to feel sorry for Mila Kunis NOW, but years ago she seemed like quite the victim), the rumors of him sleeping with costars, Demi Moore's accusations that he strongarmed her into threesomes, and...I feel like I'm forgetting something...oh yeah, this year's "please don't punish my rapist friend, he's a really nice guy otherwise" advocacy and, when the backlash came through, a very disingenuous video that basically boiled down to "heard that you're upset about this, but tbh we're upset that you heard about this."

S.G. Rice

December 4th, 2023 at 9:40 AM ^

Iowa’s drive chart: punt, punt, punt, punt, fumble, punt, punt, fumble, downs, punt, fumble, downs, downs, sweet release of death.

This is glorious, about the most Iowa game possible on offense.  The only thing missing was Deacon Hill flinging the ball directly at Michigan defenders on a regular basis -- he was surprisingly accurate more often than not.

PopeLando

December 4th, 2023 at 9:48 AM ^

The Deacon had his "Happy Learned How to Putt, Uh Oh" moment a few games back. Unfortunately, his OL and WRs did not similarly improve.

I'm going to make this a talking point after the bowl game, but dude if Iowa's position coaches on offense keep their jobs, the sideline meltdown you saw from Brian Ferentz this game is going to seem tame by comparison. 

I will die on this hill: Ferentz the Younger is perhaps the best TE coach in the country (might be a slight exaggeration, but not by much). VERY solid OL coach too. If Ferentz the Elder hadn't been so hot and bothered to promote his kid too fast, and for some reason make him the QB COACH (?!?!?), in 5 or 6 years people might have been BEGGING for B-Fer to be the next Iowa head coach.

treetown

December 4th, 2023 at 12:50 PM ^

That is the sad part. We'll probably never know what is really the dynamic between Ferentz pere and Frentz fils unless someone in Iowa decides to end their career with a tell all expose.

The solid record of producing good line and NFL caliber TEs would have naturally led the son to develop as a coaching prospect. It will always be one of those Big Ten What If's - had a Phil Parker defense been paired up with an average Big Ten offense...

We can look in comparison with Jim Harbaugh and his son and dad. Jack Harbaugh didn't anoint Jim as the coach dauphin at WMU and Jim had to work his own way up to the big time from small starting jobs. Jay Harbaugh has been terrific in his role and at no point did it seem Jim was trying to hurdle ahead.

PopeLando

December 4th, 2023 at 1:02 PM ^

I'd bet $1 that the plan for Jay is to be an assistant in the NFL at some point. He's already been a QC analyst with the Ravens.

Since joining Michigan:

  • 2015-2016: TE coach, assistant Special Teams
  • 2017-2020: RB, Special Teams
  • 2021: TE, Special Teams
  • 2022-present: Safeties, Special Teams, interim HC :)

In my corporate jobs, this is what we do with up and coming leaders who are earmarked for top management: they get exposed to as much of the organization as possible while trying to find what they excel at. You cannot rush this process: I'd argue that there's almost nothing worse than an unprepared leader.

On the flipside, I have zero doubt that Jim wouldn't hesitate to fire Jay (or ship him off somewhere) in a heartbeat if he thought he could do better.

EGD

December 4th, 2023 at 10:06 AM ^

Iowa's offensive futility is one thing; what really killed Iowa in the BTCG were the turnovers. If Iowa doesn't fumble on the first Sainristil hit, they likely kick a FG there and it's a 10-3 game. If they don't fumble the second time, they punt--albeit from deep in their own territory--and probably keep Michigan out of the end zone, if not off the scoreboard entirely, in that segment of the game. Then they gifted M another three points with a third fumble well after the outcome was decided.

Just taking those ten points away from M and giving that FG to Iowa makes the score 16-3, which is still a comfortable victory by Iowa standards. But the score would have been closer longer, which puts more pressure on the opponent, so who knows? What a disaster. If you're not going to move the ball or score, at least don't turn it over. Just a really terrible, wretched performance by the Iowa offense all-around. Not that I am complaining!!

HighBeta

December 4th, 2023 at 10:35 AM ^

A few items:

Truly excellent work! Granted, Iowa is a target rich environment in which to go hunting, but you crushed these writeups. Bravo!

It's okay to use Charlie as a pinata. People who arrogantly self-medicate and then ignore the feedback? Well, they become social targets that are too easy to ignore.

Kutcher is his obnoxious character from the sitcoms; he and his bride/sitcom alum have been fined by the SEC for selling unregistered crypto securities for their cartoon about doper felines; they also write letters of support for convicted rapists. Thinking is not a strength for either of them.

But. I've gone way OT. Apologies.

Repeat: excellent diaries. Thank you!

Wolverine In Exile

December 4th, 2023 at 10:45 AM ^

Just putting this for posterity:

Tory Taylor, Iowa Punter-- 4119 punting yards through 13 games

Rex Grossman, Florida QB in his "F it I'm throwing deep cause the OBC told me so" year (2001)-- 3896 passing yards in 12 games. 

oriental andrew

December 4th, 2023 at 3:22 PM ^

According to sports-reference.com, Tory Taylor is how the all-time leader for punt yards in a season.

Tory Taylor - 4119 - 2023Iowa

Bobby Cowan - 4084 - 2011Idaho

Matt Araiza* - 4044 - 2021San Diego State

Tom Hornsey - 3993 - 2011Memphis

Michael Dickson* - 3984 - 2017Texas

Tory Taylor also has the #17 and #20 spots on the list, with 3725 yards in 2022 and 3688 yards in 2021. 

sharklover

December 4th, 2023 at 2:04 PM ^

Love me some iowatch. Even moreso now that the Hawkeyes are in the rearview mirror. That was a stupid game against a stupid team. But I enjoyed it all the more because I truly felt that I understood said stupid team intrinsically. 

wolvemarine

December 4th, 2023 at 3:14 PM ^

Nice.

PL should at least get an interim guest hosting spot on Opponent Watch -- at the very least for the Rose Bowl.

(I am a little bit concerned that I understood everything in the opening three paragraphs...but...I don't care.)

Eng1980

December 4th, 2023 at 9:54 PM ^

Nicely done.  Are you suggesting that Kirk Ferentz is as crazy as General Zaroff?  I thought this was an interesting topic from day one.  I don't know of any sports team that matches Iowa for the punting is winning concept.

Blue@LSU

December 4th, 2023 at 11:31 PM ^

Hey, want to guess how many Big Ten teams have exceeded 25 points per game? FourZero in the B1G West. Ye gods.

Wow. This is absolutely incredible.

After seeing these numbers, I had to take a look at last year's averages. Only 7 teams in the B1G averaged ≥ 25 ppg and Iowa only averaged 17.7.

This makes me wonder if you think it's possible that they were setting Ferentz the Younger up for failure (you may have answered this in a previous diary)? I mean, they were basically saying that Iowa needs to score at least 1 more touchdown/game and they have to be in the top half of the B1G in terms of points/game. And given the randomness of turnovers, pick-6s, safeties, etc., I'm sure they were counting on fewer defensive scores when they wrote the contract. So they probably expected that the offense would have to score something like 10-14 more points/game than last year. That's a pretty high bar. 

Great work as always! You've gotta find a way to keep this going next year, even if it is a different team/storyline. You just have too much talent for it. Seriously!

PopeLando

December 5th, 2023 at 10:14 AM ^

I don't think they were necessarily setting B-Fer up for failure on purpose...but I DO think that they never bothered to check how big of a thing a 7+ point turnaround is.

I wrote a forum post on the subject. I made a really bad math error in the 1986 figures, so ignore the part where I say that 1986 was a drop and 1987 was an improvement, but basically it boils down to this: it's rare AF, and usually involves a MASSIVE change in the coaching staff, the players, or both.

A 10+ ppg improvement has happened exactly once at Michigan in the past 40 years: when Hoke was fired and Harbaugh hired. THAT'S the kind of change you have to make. It was never going to happen for poor Brian Ferentz this year.

And THANK YOU! I'd love to do something, this has been fun. I had originally planned on taking Texts With Harbaugh (link) into next season, but I don't think folks found it as funny as I did. So the current top candidate in my mind is "Sparchitecture", following along with MSU's rebuilding project. 

What do you think?

Blue@LSU

December 5th, 2023 at 5:05 PM ^

I thought you had written something about that, so I'm glad to know I wasn't just imagining things. 

But I find it hilarious, and yet so on brand, that they wouldn't know how difficult a 7-10 point turnaround would be. 

"Sparchitecture" sounds perfect. Smith seems a good coach, but I think there are going to be many bumps in the road. It should give plenty of inspiration for writing. You might even be able to fit in a Smith vs. Smith (John or John L.) comparison along the way. I'd definitely read that.

We do need to get Seth to open up space for at least one more diary on the sidebar. Your Diary, Best and Worst, Football and War, and Look-A-Like should all be up at the same time.   

bighouseinmate

December 5th, 2023 at 10:24 AM ^

So……is the lack of scoring in the b1g due to excellent defense, OR, is it due to truly awful offenses? I’d have to say that it’s a little bit of both, considering just how good we know Michigan’s, Iowa’s, PSU’s, OSU’s, and to a slightly lesser extent Nebraska’s defenses are. 
 

Against those teams, turnovers caused by Michigan’s own defense led to an average of nearly a TD per game. Add in the defense forcing a punt and Michigan’s punt return special teams making a play and it’s pretty much another FG per game for a total of nearly 10 pts per game for each of those teams. Michigan’s avg. score in those games was 31.25. Subtract the 10 pts per game from Michigan’s defensive play and you are left with an offensive output of about 3 TDs per game. In all other games this season Michigan’s offense seems to have led to an avg of 4 TDs and a FG per game, all against defenses not in the top 10 (or 20 or 30). 
 

That’s a lot of extrapolations from the games this year but seems to support the idea that although b1g offenses were pretty bad, much of that was caused by the defenses they played against.