I’m Ready to Be Hurt Again: Why This Fan Is (-sigh-) Optimistic About the 2021 Season and Beyond, Part 1: Beyond
(note: this was not supposed to be multipart, but without the bar or office to talk sports, it’s been building up and got a bit out of hand. And sorry for the meandering focus; this was done a paragraph or two at a time over the course of a few weeks during downtime at work)
To be a Michigan fan these days is to have the worst traits of two notorious fanbases: the arrogance of a Yankee fan (which I am) and the defeatism of a (pre-2016) Cubs fan. Of late, this mentality has been stoked by the popular question of whether Michigan can reclaim its spot among the truly elite college football programs or if the RichRod and Hoke eras dug a hole too deep for even Jim Harbaugh to truly escape. The prevailing opinion from many, fans and talking heads alike, seems to be a resounding NO, with a variety of reasons given, from the pretentious (“We can never compete with programs offering the bag, especially with our high academic standards.”) to the resigned (“The game has passed us by, tradition and history mean nothing to a generation of kids who have never seen Michigan win a B10 title or beat OSU.”)
And that was the state of affairs before the abomination that was last season. Follow that with an offseason of personnel upheaval—necessary, but still massively disruptive—that laid bare an embarrassingly primitive recruiting department, and it seemed Michigan might truly be doomed to a permanent demotion from college football’s top tiers.
And yet…it’s this latest depressing development that offers me the most hope. Why? Seeing how ridiculously behind the times the recruiting organization has been makes the success Harbaugh’s Michigan has had on the recruiting trail and the field—capped though it has been—all the more impressive, and the changes that have been made suggest that the best days may be yet to come.
Call me crazy, but it’s seemed for a while that something was a little…off with the Michigan recruiting process. The classes have consistently been good, top 10–15ish, but just about every cycle since the great WR haul of 2017 has felt a touch underwhelming, with too many sure bets ending up elsewhere and the inevitable, inexplicable foot-shooting.
Fast forward to this offseason’s staff reboot, with Matt Dudek exiting and Courtney Morgan and others coming aboard. Word started coming out that Michigan’s recruiting efforts had been severely handicapped by an organization run like a mom-and-pop store trying to compete with the Fortune 500 operations in Tuscaloosa and Columbus and the like. Among others, Rivals’ EJ Holland has given a lot of background on the specific deficiencies, but these were major issues and not minor details—lack of a central organization and defined roles, not building relationships with key club programs (as a matter of policy!). I don’t know whether Dudek grossly underestimated what was needed or if he asked for help and didn’t get it, but responsibility ultimately lies further up the food chain, and it was a complete botch job.
But now…maybe not so much? Just about every personnel move the football program made this offseason seemed done with recruiting in mind: hiring coaches like George Helow, Mike Hart, Ron Bellamy, and Mo Linguist Steve Clinkscale; bringing in Courtney Morgan to lead the effort and giving him an actual staff; sending analysts like Aashon Larkins and Ryan Osborn out on the recruiting trail.* A lot of youth, a lot of energy, a lot of connections. Even the hires without an established foothold in the recruiting world—Mike Macdonald and Matt Weiss—fit the youthful mold, and recruit feedback seems to suggest that they both know how to connect with these kids. Do we know if the necessary structure and attention to detail are finally there? Not yet. But we do know that the new hires come with established track records and the simple fact that there are more people to take on responsibilities is a huge step in the right direction.
*They may have been out there just as much before and I only became aware when my pandemic boredom led to subscriptions to Rivals and 247.
Of course, another important question is whether all this will actually lead to increased success on the recruiting trail. So far, it’s very much in the eye of the beholder. The stargazing crowd would say no, with our class languishing towards the bottom of the top 20 and lacking in (healthy) high-end talent beyond Will Johnson. Team “trust the coaches” would rebut that ratings in the time of Covid are more of a crapshoot than ever and to, uh, trust the coaches.
Despite possessing a cynicism forged in decades of Michigan fandom, I actually find myself leaning towards the latter. The Covid point is a valid one, and it seems like the Michigan coaching staff is trusting its judgement, identifying top targets and pursuing hard. Have they won every big battle? Of course not, but they’ve certainly punched above the weight you’d expect from a team that just went 2–4 and turned over most of its coaching staff.
I also found myself encouraged by a recent story about Michigan being eliminated from a recruit’s list. It was discussed on a recent MGoBlog podcast (which I admittedly haven’t listened to, so sorry if I’m inadvertently parroting someone’s argument), but being straight with Justice Finkley about where he fits in this defense is absolutely the right move, even at the cost of his commitment. If a player isn’t happy with the position the program has put him in, what are the odds he’ll be a net positive, on and off the field? I don’t really have anything to base it on (give or take a James Hudson), but my hunch is that earlier iterations of the Harbaugh Wolverines would have promised the kid a shot at edge if that’s what it took, and both parties would have been worse off for it. Talent is great, but a coaching staff that understands who fits the team’s needs and doesn’t try to fit square pegs into round holes goes a long way to maximizing it.
Talent development itself is a whole other issue, and one I’m even less qualified to assess, so I’ll leave it alone other than to say that early message board buzz suggests that the new staff includes some strong teachers who should help make great strides in that area—Hart, Clinkscale, even Sherrone Moore in his new role.
So the program has made the necessary changes to get maximize its recruiting potential, but the question remains of what exactly that looks like. This may be my most controversially Pollyanna-ish take yet, but I truly believe Michigan can get back onto college football’s top tier (or at least the Georgia/Oklahoma Tier 1b), and that the frequently eulogized power of the Michigan name is why the upside remains that high. A frequent refrain among people who think otherwise is that in terms of on-field results, our ceiling of late is Wisconsin or Iowa: consistently good, occasionally better, never a real threat to win a title. But even as both established themselves as well-run programs with strong records of player development and a clear identity (though also a nasty racist streak, in Iowa’s case), they never really recruited above the level of a low-top 25 team, while Michigan’s classes consistently ranked higher, even amidst Brady Hoke’s buffoonery.* The kids may not give a damn about Bo Schembechler or Tom Harmon, but Michigan will always have a higher Q score than the Iowas and Wisconsins of the college football world, and that does matter. And if Michigan can execute as well as those programs—on and off the field—the ceiling is matched by few others. Whether Jim Harbaugh has done enough to get there since last year’s debacle is yet to be determined, but I like what I’m seeing so far, and it’s a hell of a lot more than I thought was possible as October 31, 2020.
*I’m not looking this up to confirm.
Part 2: Why 2021 Might Not Be So Bad to come soon. (Hopefully.)
"... if the RichRod and Hoke eras dug a hole too deep for even Jim Harbaugh to truly escape ..."
That hole started forming around the time Lloyd lost his fastball (early aughts). Or, maybe when cheatin' Tressel began to ascend. (A hole can deepen when the surface is raised, see?)
Lloyd was a good coach who hasn't been surpassed and the hole maybe wasn't super-noticeable in 2007. (I do remember Appalachian State and Oregon.) But, it was there.
There's no reason it had to deepen at the rate it did between 2008 and 2014, but it's hard to imagine it shrinking under the best of circumstances. (I have no faith that Ron English or Les Miles could've stopped or reversed its growth.)
Very true. I was being lazy, and besides, when the factory collapses, the Milhouse who is watching it takes the blame, fair or not.
People like to forget that Lloyd had four top 6 recruiting classes from 2001 - 2005 and the #1 overall class in '99. Even his last two years were #10 and #11 respectively in '06 & '07. Hoke & JH had a few top 6 classes here and there, but never 4/6 of them and never cracked the top 3 which Lloyd did twice during this era, maybe more if they tracked it before '99. I think his recruiting is undervalued in today's discussions of his era.
Lloyd could sure recruit the offensive talent. Development was great as well. My one gripe with him is that he couldn't translate that on the field. But how could I stay mad at a guy who won the only NC in 70 years?
Lloyd could sure recruit the offensive talent. Development was great as well. My one gripe with him is that he couldn't translate that on the field.
Agreed, our offensive schemes have been in the dark ages for years and were under Carr and he also loved to play prevent defense which made a lot games closer than they should have been. He always played it safe and rarely had the killer instinct. He also refused to buy into the rivalry the way Tressel and his successors did, but he did take full advantage of the fact that Cooper lacked even Carr's passion for the rivalry and he fared pretty well against the SEC, although not so much the PAC 12, which Bama is just now what USC was during Carr's time (and even better).
But how could I stay mad at a guy who won the only NC in 70 years?
Carr had his faults, but it's hard to argue his results. But, as always context is important. He'd probably be more successful than JH today due to his better recruiting, better player retention, and better coaching consistency, but he'd still get shellacked by Meyer & Day's OSU teams I'd guess. But, we'd probably prefer the way he'd likely beat Wiscy, PSU, & MSU more consistently, even if that meant more mind boggling losses to the bottom half of the league. What I wouldn't do for a few wins against OSU to shut those effers up. Maybe one day we can stop being so reactionary to our past and build a new future with a coach not rooting in that past who wants to make his own mark. Maybe on the next one?
"He also refused to buy into the rivalry the way Tressel and his successors did..."
Hmm. Here's a take: Lloyd didn't have to approach the rivalry in the same manner because he knew he had the better team in most cases. Giving a lot of attention to your inferiors helps them to feel they're your equal. His teams knew they were better, too. One of Michigan's problems afterwards was that they still knew this even after it was no longer true. At which time it became necessary to take the rivalry more seriously. Then it got rolling and it was too late to slow it down. Then this attitude shifted to Michigan State with similar results.
Hmm. Here's a take: Lloyd didn't have to approach the rivalry in the same manner because he knew he had the better team in most cases.
Unfortunately it's not easy to quickly access old records, rankings, and recruiting classes before 2000, which would be required to make this a valid argument. But, if my memory serves me right, and that's a big time question, I believe that in the 90s OSU generally had the better record and higher ranking in the polls when these two teams met. When it comes to recruiting they had about equal rankings as a whole plus or minus a few places.
Giving a lot of attention to your inferiors helps them to feel they're your equal.
That hasn't helped UM get any better. OSU has given UM all their attention for several decades now and UM is getting worse.
One of Michigan's problems afterwards was that they still knew this even after it was no longer true. At which time it became necessary to take the rivalry more seriously.
I get the impression they are getting better with the help of Hart, Bellomy, etc. who played in this rivalry. But, I'd also guess OSU still does way more.
I can't argue with any of that.
"Maybe one day we can stop being so reactionary to our past"
I think that is slowly in process. Harbaugh, despite the criticisms, has been a change-o-matic guy while here; arguably too much, in the pursuit of getting better. People call him stubborn but don't offer much more than the 'eye' test on game day served up on a platter of their own vitriol.
I really get the feeling that the last staff adjustment was one designed to fill up the recruiting cupboard in the next couple three years then allow for a clear heir after Harbaugh. I further feel (with no evidence whatsoever, just my own platter of emotions) that it might be Hart.
We'll see. We need two somewhat opposed things: Change and stability. Change from the past in that we respect it but we realize it isn't serving us anymore. Being uber strict with admissions and doing stupid stuff like we did with Worthy (stonewalling him when he wanted to enroll, not doing *ANYTHING* while other schools tampered) is dumb. Acting like we're better than everyone else is dumb too. We need to be hungry. We aren't the leaders and best in Football. Recently when on our game we're 3rd place and Pretty Good. If we want to stay there, fine. I can live with 9-10 win seasons with the occasional fall to 7 and occasional rise to 11. But let's stop lying to ourselves about who we are. If we want to be elite.... well then we need to stop being so simon pure in a game that isn't. Leverage the hell out of NIL and our large fanbase. Create a 'football degree' for kids who want to go to the NFL. That's fine.
Stability needs to come in the fact that we can't fiddle f*ck around with schemes all the time. I'm not a huge fan of the spread. I preferred the Harbaugh/Fisch offense. But it's here now, and we've recruited to it, so lets stick with it. Same with our new D. Let it play out a few years and see how it works.
Just my $0.02.
Not sure I agree with the..."He also refused to buy into the rivalry the way Tressel and his successors did..." Carr was ever the traditionalist - maybe to a fault - and the OSU game always seemed like his #1 priority even with (or because of) the consistent spoiling the Buck's natty hopes...
All of that Bushwood is so true.
Lloyd had so much talent on those teams. Watching him open up that offense was just a thing of beauty.
Why he didn’t do it often was agonizing.
The slip begin with Tressel. Bo calling him a snake in the grass shows the he was effective at blocking us from Ohio players. Two year before he retired, Carr wanted out and Martin made him stay on, and recrutiintoona big hit those last two years. Then RR was a total momentum shift with the types of players he wanted. So for five years we got no players from our main fertile ground of greater Ohio. Then came Hoke and he recruited like a champ, getting back in a big way, getting players over OSU. A shame he brought Funk and a few other staffers with him. Then came Jim and he couldn't get back into Ohio at all, instead getting tons of California players with Fresno that all transferred out.
I often think where we would be had Carr left when he wanted to... the coach would have been d'Antonio, the one guy who could beat OSU and go head to head with Tressel for the Ohio players. He was waiting at Cinci, and the similar scenario was when we hired Bo the one guy who can beat Woody.
Or, an alternative, had Carr stayed and promoted DeBord like he had wanted to. Mallett would have stayed, and the gap between us and OSU now, would not be what it is.
Martin shoulders the blame for all of this. Made Carr stay on, and then wouldn't let the program have continuity, and then made a very bad fit hire. In fairness he tried to hire Schiano first, and that may have worked out well despite what people think of him.
I believe you and it makes sense that all of that is true. It's still an excuse. Tressel turned the rivalry on its head in one season and never looked back. RR was not a good fit. Hoke was a good recruiter, but in over his head. And, JH's got no excuse. It shouldn't take this long to get back what UM had 20 years ago. If any of these guys were as good of a coach as Tressel, Meyer, or Day are they would have already done it. The problem is they aren't. We keep making poor hire after poor hire while OSU makes great hire after great hire.
I think college football took a couple steps in a new direction of professionalism and organizational commitment that Michigan didn't think was necessary/was unwilling to take. Add to that a change in style of play and you have the last 20 years.
Maybe the second hiring of Harbaugh will show they've taken those steps. Might be painful finding out.
Putting aside the pain Anderson caused for a moment, which is hard because it was so bad. But trying to look at this from a different angle, in a way I think this whole Bo/Anderson thing may be good for UM football. Bo has dominated UM football since the 60s. Even after he retired he was the AD. And, even after his death we tried to go the the opposite way of Bo when we hired RR, which was a poor hire and not poor because of his style, but poor because RR didn't know what he was getting into. Then, we did a full 360 and went back to full "Michigan Man" with Hoke and again with JH. I'm hopeful that we can stop making Bo out to be a hero that every UM football coach has to be compared to. This is not doing us any favors. Either we try to be completely different than him or we try to be just like him, but he's influencing every coach. We need new coaches and new ADs to have the freedom to be themselves. Getting out of Bo's shadow is something UM football drastically needs. We need a coach that has a modern approach and who is not living in the past.
I feel the same way. I think a clean break from the past would be best for all.
Debord tanks the program, too. Maybe not as quickly as RR, but Debord would've been slaughtered by OSU.
I think we would all agree that the slip began with Tressel, and I agree that Martin is the guy that should shoulder most of the blame.
However, I think the AD owns much more of the blame over the last 20 years than anyone else. Think about this. Martin wouldn't let Carr go and more importantly, he didn't require Carr to develop a succession plan. Who at that level of an organization doesn't have contingencies and even more so when the guy says he's getting ready to go?
Then, Martin makes a very bad hire in RR. Fortunately, he also hired John Beilein and he helped improve the finances of the athletic department dramatically during his tenure. Nonetheless, poor job with the football team. Martin retires and Dave Brandon gets the nod.
Dave Brandon hires Hoke. For me personally, I think Hoke was better than most give him credit for and that's because I blame his control freak boss. Hoke and Brandon were like oil and water. Their personalities and styles could not have been more different. Whatever the case, I blame the AD once again.
Enter James Hackett. He hired the guy everyone wanted and they were frankly quite successful in his short tenure.
Finally, Warde Manuel in 2016. He inherited Jim. He appears to generally be hands off, but his one big decision so far was retaining Harbaugh. I think that was his only viable option. Matt Campbell would have been a very solid hire, but he's a multi-generational football coach from Ohio. That says to me he was never an option.
Bottom line, I think we have an AD that can help us get back to the top. I think we have a coach that can get us back to the top.
Meanwhile, for the last 20 years OSU has had the AD and the coaches working in concert and making great hires throughout the organization. That's been the biggest difference between OSU and UM football.
Except for that misguided fondness for the New York Yokels Baseball Team, I hear ya.
Either I've been disappointed so many times that my disappointment has scarred over OR I'm now wiser and more mature, and can better handle the vicissitudes of life. (OMG, I spelled "vicissitudes" right the first time, without checking or being corrected by spellcheck!)
In any case, I too am optimistic. Cautiously sorta kinda maybe possibly perhaps optimistic but still, optimistic.
A fate determined by geography. Doc and Darryl had Shea rockin’ when I was a kid, but Yankee Stadium was/is soooo much easier to get to.
Seinfeld's joke that that we're only rooting for the clothes misses the mark: we root for geography. For home.
And speaking of easy access, imagine the old days when the Polo Grounds and Yankee Stadium were across the river from each other.
Not today, Henri Otter of Ennui.
Carr still had a great team in 2006. I think what hurt him the most was that he knew he was done and he refused to lie to kids about it. That left Michigan with somewhat of a talent gap when RichRod took over and he was NOT the right guy to fix it.
I think the biggest challenge is going to be changing the narrative. I agree with others that Manuel has effectively hired Jim Harbaugh for the second time - like it was a coaching change with all the digging out of a hole that comes with it. However the fan base has no patience for the digging out: there isn't an associated fan base narrative of A New Hope. Thus, even though the program may be positioned to dig itself out, the pessimistic narrative will hold it back.
Thinking about it in those terms, why would an AD of a top-25 program hire a guy with Harbaugh's record unless he was an alum?
Hint: he wouldn't.
I just truly can't understand people with this mindset. 2020 was terrible, but it was also a ridiculous pandemic season. you're telling me most top 25 teams wouldn't buy what harbaugh was selling from 2015-2019?
A 57 year old coach with zero feel for contemporary college football and no significant wins since the 2012 NFC Championship?
Pray tell, who's hiring that guy in January 2021? Maybe a high-profile G5 program.
Another (slight?) reason for optimism: Did any team in the country miss as much as Michigan did last year with Covid/major injuries?
- Ambry Thomas - (definitely should have sat out what with the colitis, not blaming him at all) if he plays Michigan wins that MSU game, right? The issue was one WR, and here Michigan should have had a 3rd round CB. New record: 3-3.
- Nico Collins - another 3rd rounder not available to any of M's QBs. Granted, we all lament that the offense didn't get him the ball enough, but still.
- Hutchinson & Kwity missing time with injuries (probably 2 first rounders)
- All the QBs hurt
- Mayfield & Hayes injuries (2 NFL OL)
- etc.
could be a bounce back year for sure.
At one point, you could’ve made the case that Michigan’s *7 best players* were out at the same time, between opt-outs and injuries. Not even OSU and Bama would be unscathed by that kind of attrition at the top of their rosters
Before opt-outs and injuries, we were 125th in returning production. Take away the 7 best players from one of the least experienced teams in America and you're going to have a bad time.
The 2-4 covid year was an aberration and many here are livid about it. But many good things have developed because of it. Browns gimmick D is gone and we have a young ace recruiting staff, and I believe in Harbaughs second wind here. The QB room seems good now and while there will be growing pains with the new defensive system, this is the right way going forward.
I just don't see the point of getting your hopes up, especially this year. Out of Harbaugh's 6 years here, 3 have been pleasant (2015, 2016, 2018) with depressing endings (2015 at least had the cheery bowl game to make us feel better). So 2/3 of our best seasons ended in great disappointment. The other 3 seasons range from goodish (2019) to bleh (2017) to outright disaster (2020). None of those 3 had any lasting positive memories other than beating the pants off of Notre Dame in 2019 before the long hiatus.
So 5/6 years, we've been left feeling like we underachieved or just had a flat out disappointing ending. I'm simply tired of getting my hopes up for the inevitable downfall. The momentum around the program is at a lull in comparison to the burning optimism of the post 2015 & 2016 offseasons. The only thing that's gonna change that is big wins on the field, which may or may not happen. So I'll just sit back and watch the games apathetically and if something nice happens, it'll be a pleasant surprise.
In years past, I hung on the recruiting results and looked forward to the season eagerly. Not this year. Decades of being near-greats have worn me down.
We recruit very well but don't play very well. I feel like Charlie Brown, finally saying, "enough is enough. I ain't trying to kick that ball any more" I gave up on the Lions 20 years ago and am numb toward them. Michigan is my alma mater so it's harder to give up on the football program but I'm just about there.
I won't attend games this year and am not going to go out of my way to watch them on TV. I may be projecting but I have the feeling that the crowds are going to be pretty ugly in their mood toward the program/team/coaching staff.
For all the talk of Michigan trying to get back to "where it belongs," I've had to stop at points and ask myself is where Michigan is right now where it belongs anyway?
8-10 win seasons, with the occasional 11 win outlier, has generally been Michigan's M.O. for decades. To go along with a horrendous bowl record. That didn't all of a sudden start happening after Carr left. We've won, what, 4-5 bowl games in this millennium? I believe that who we've been on the field over the last 20-30 years is largely who we've always been anyway.
Moral of the story: I'm not going to pretend that Michigan is something that it isn't. Michigan is usually a good to very good, occasionally great program, but minus the '97 season, it hasn't been truly elite in a long, long time. Even during Bo's heyday, they might make the Rose Bowl and then go get their ass kicked by USC, or they'd lose a game they had absolutely no business losing, and that effectively cost them the national championship.
Its not worth getting my hopes up to see Michigan achieve more than its already achieved, because I'm setting myself up to be disappointed. Could they one day? Possibly, but doubtful. I believe it would have to require a complete fundamental overhaul of the entire program. As in ripping out the foundation stones and starting the entire thing over, the very culture and essence of what Michigan football is. The entire university administration, from the President on down, has to be committed to success on the football field in the exact same way that you see in Columbus, Clemson and Tuscaloosa. And I just don't believe this university has it within itself to want to do that.
You think a guy like Mark Schlissel gives two shits about what happens to this football team or who it beats and doesn't beat? Granted, he is not directly responsible for what happens on the field, but that culture and mindset from the university power brokers of not being "all in" is at least part of what holds Michigan back, and likely always will.
This hits the nail on the head. It seems like most of the vocal fanbase does not have a realistic sense of the modern history of the football program. Football fans seem to conclude that anything less than a top-four finish is a failure (and would probably also complain about losing decisively in the first round of the CFP). Given the realities of UM and the rest of college football, it is a recipe for disappointment.
(Michigan fans do still seem to appreciate the joys that an Elite Eight (and maybe even a Sweet Sixteen) appearance may bring in basketball. Heaven help us when we start bringing the miserable football fan approach to basketball. How many times would be hear the complaints about losing as a 1-seed to an 11-seed, etc., etc.?)
Yep. The only thing that's missing today is the media respect - resulting in UM preseason rankings putting us at #2 - #5 with a real shot at the NC if we win out, then ending up at #10 and whatnot after an unexplainable loss or two to Iowa, Northwestern, or Purdue, and then the bowl game.
Regarding Schlissel... Yes, he does care. I went to an athletic event at the Lincoln Center in NYC, years ago around the time of the pre Harbaughs hire I think it was and in his speech the first thing mentioned was the football program, which indicated to me the importance and priority.
"I must not have expectations. They are the joy-killer. Expectations are the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my expectations. I will permit them to pass over me and through me. And when they have gone past, I will turn the inner eye to see its path. Where the expectations have gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain."
Paul Muad'Dib (whose Michigan fandom is not well known)
I’m definitely rocking with you, So Bored. Last year was such a clusterfuck before they even got to the field, then being down your top 7 players only compounded what would have been a “down year” due to developmental cost. To be very honest, I’m actually glad that last year was as much of a gut punch as it was. To suggest it as a wake up call would be an understatement but it seems to have triggered some alarm bells and forced a re-evaluation of things.
I know there are many reasons to complain about Dline play, CB talent/depth but if you consider last year an opportunity for younger guys to get a taste of what’s required to be effective, than it’s a positive. We got a lot of underclassmen field time that we probably wouldn’t have seen.
I went back and dug through recruiting profiles, exit and welcome posts and I can talk myself into a team that can perform with what we have. With the addition of Jordan Whitley, you’ve got Hinton, Jeter, Welschof, Whitley, smith and Speight to play the 3 interior line spots that are predicated on gumming up gaps. You’ve got Hutch, Upshaw, Ojabo, Harrell, McGregor, Newberg to play “OLB.” There’s DEPTH at safety after Hill and Hawkins in Paige, Morant, and Moten. You’ve got Ross, Barrett and a future all American to really occupy 1.5 spots at ILB. Germon Green is B1G level CB athletically, you still have Seldon, and competition for the last spot. It’s not as dire as many would have you think.
Defense is about effort as much as scheme. As the season goes on they’ll be able to add layers to the scheme. But they’re going to play hard, run to the ball, and effort a really solid defense until it’s go time against Wisconsin, PSU, and ultimately OSU. I ultimately believe we’ll be in for a better season than the board predicts.
Two other major changes which bring long-term hope:
1. A 12 team playoff will allow talent to spread out across more schools and still participate in the playoff rather than allowing 3-4 ‘have’ schools to use this to recruit against the rest. Despite having that school down south in our way, Harbaugh’s teams would have been among the next tier in appearances in a 12-team format which would help recruiting.
2. NIL should level the playing field or even tilt it in our direction. Fire the Michigan Money Cannon!
So, not to add pressure, but a passable to good year this year can be a bridge to a promising future without the disruption of hitting the reset button.
I don't completely agree with #1. I think 5 schools will continue to recruit the same way they have been recruiting: Bama, Georgia, Clemson, OSU, Oklahoma. I think the next tier, will have the talent diluted by lesser P5 programs with money and really good G5 teams with a legit shot or track record to make the playoff.
The question is really what will it take for OSU to fall off? Bama? Clemson? I think it's going to be agents. Kids are going to get agents for their NIL deals...and they are going to start getting agents in high school. These agents are going to start steering kids to where they can make the most money. Eventually we are going to see a CFB version of Scott Boras who is going to hold a lot of power by funneling kids to places he can get them the best deals. It won't be Columbus or Tuscaloosa. It'll be in LA, Oregon, NYC, Miami, Atlanta, Charlotte, Washington DC...and any other big hubs.
Count me in the camp that does not believe the 12-team playoff will result in a significant spreading of talent. The best talent is not looking to merely be in the playoff; they want to be in the playoff and win a championship.
The top-tier schools that are dominating now will continue to dominate, at least for the first two or three years. The key is how the next level down playoff teams fare ... do they play tough and competitively, showing an ascendant trend? Or do they get stomped like Notre Dame, or Michigan State when they were last in the playoff? Being in the playoff and getting stomped will not draw top talent.
Canzior - I somewhat agree - however, the competition in the major markets will be fierce and imo only a few Lebron James type high school kids will benefit in a large market. I think what will drive this most likely is the ability to promote the kids to a willing audience and the finiancial means with which to pay them.
Enter Alabama and the Bryant Bank connection. They are already funneling millions of dollars into the program. Now it just becomes much easier - -- to a student/athlete - do x number of social media posts about x brand for us, 2 TV commercials, and we will pay you $100k, move your family, give them a sweetheart mortgage deal, and find jobs for your parents.
Also, how any universities are going to be competing in NY, LA, etc. Columbus sits in a sizeable media market with virtually no other D1 competion in the entire state so the reach is Columbus, Cincinnati, Clevland, Dayton.....
I really think the big hubs will pay little attention to this.
While their net rankings might not fall off, I am an adamant believer that the current dropoff in recruiting scores between the top 3-5 and the rest are due to high school talent maximizing their own chances of going to the NFL. Going to the playoffs, even as a backup, does the most for players' NFL draft chances because of the exposure they receive. With an expanded playoff field, there are more openings through which to gain that same exposure, so selling the most talented players on early playing time at a next-tier school should be easier going forward.
I hope I'm not wrong here; NIL provides another variable that could leave college football top-heavy with Michigan on the outside looking in.
Interesting point, canzior, but I think it will be the college football market size that will count, not the size of the cities, per se. Alabama and Ohio State won't be hurting.
Interesting point, canzior, but I think it will be the college football market size that will count, not the size of the cities, per se. Alabama and Ohio State won't be hurting.
“or if the RichRod and Hoke eras dug a hole too deep for even Jim Harbaugh to truly escape.”
Odd; The record shows Harbaugh going 10-3 with Hoke’s players.
Fair enough, but the effect of a head coach goes well beyond the players he leaves behind. With the speed the game has been evolving on and off the field, a program has to constantly develop. Coach Hoke seemed like a nice fellow and he can coach my d-line any day, but do you really think he advanced the organization in any way? Besides banning red, of course.
Im not a Harbaugh apologist but this is tired thinking. Hoke was 5-7 with his players. He was a huge upgrade in one year. By seasons end the previous year nobody was saying "watch out for these guys next year"
If I could just loop Harbaughs first two years minus miracle vs sparty and keystone cops scramble that eventually won for OSU id be a happy man.
I would suggest saving the optimism for '22+.
'21 might be a bit rough.
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