Formation Notes: Nothing new in the annals of MGoCharting but there were a few that probably need refreshers. They use a Double-Eagle on passing downs (see last year’s UFR that I did over the summer). I’ll note it as Eagle then where the LBs are on the line, e.g. Eagle AAD.

Michigan also brought back the Pistol Diamond formation we call Fritz. Hello again Fritz.

MSU had a lot of formations with two semi-safeties at about 7 yards and then a deep middle one. Often (as in this case) one or both walked down to LB depth at the snap so I just counted it at as “high.”

Substitution Notes: Barnhart got the start at LG but 11-manned two plays and got pulled for Keegan, who was reinserted in the 2nd half and stuck despite still clearly being injured; Zinter went the whole way at RG. Trente Jones came on wearing #80 as a sixth OL. Andrel Anthony took Baldwin’s spot, broke out.

[After THE JUMP: Many drives of opportunity.]

Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M2	1st	10	Goal Line	4-2-5	4-3 Even	2	Penalty	7	False Start	Stueber	-5	-0.08
Oops.
M1	1st	11	Pistol FB Heavy	4-2-5	4-3 Over	2	Run	7	Split Duo	Haskins	1	-0.17
Want to go frontside but Vastardis(-1) and Barnhart(-1) got beaten back by Slade. Zinter(+0.5) and Stueber(+0.5) move out a DT and Schoonmaker(+1) did the same with the DE but Honigford(-2) stays on that guy instead of getting the LB. Free hit with the safety as well stops this for no gain.
M2	2nd	10	Gun Ace Tight	4-2-5	4-3 Over	1	Pass	8	Z Out	Johnson	5	0.03
MSU brings a run blitz and it's picked up with Haskins(+1) submarining an LB and a blocker for every man. Cade throws dangerously off-target to the inside but CJ reaches back and tips it to himself. (IN, 1, Prot 3/3, McNamara-1)
M7	3rd	5	Gun Trips Bunch	4-2-5	Eagle AAD	0	Pass	8	Cross	Anthony	93	7.15
Oh hell yeah! Pocket is collapsing after two beats because Zinter(-1) has lost ground. Cade has to slip this through a tiny window and over a referee. This is the best throw a Michigan QB has made since...? I don't know but passes that aren't long TDs don't get lodged in the memory In this case however #1 makes it so, as Anthony(+3) outruns the entire MSU defense like he's Anthony Carter. (DO+, 3, Prot 2/3, Zinter-1, McNamara+4).
Drive Notes: Touchdown
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M20	1st	10	Gun Heavy Twins	4-2-5	4-3 Over BB	2	RPO	7	Buck GC/Slants	Haskins	7	0.53
Michigan has #80 in which is Hunter Neff on the roster but I think that's Trente Jones wearing a TE number. I think this is an RPO that McNamara(-1, RPO-) is reading the WLB on the hash but doesn't read him since the slant is wide open. They're also leaving the backside DE unblocked but the WRs look back for a pass which is a clue it's an RPO and he's a fake read. He goes for the QB (RPS+1). Jones(+1) blows out the DE so Schoonmaker(-1) can get to a safety he doesn't control. Barnhart(+1) gets a good kick outside. Haskins(+0.5) might have a cutback against an aggressive filling safety, but Vastardis(-0.5) can't get to a CB and the pursuit is really good so he hurdles a fool instead.
M27	2nd	3	Pistol F Heavy	4-2-5	4-3 Under	1	Run	8	Power	Haskins	1	-0.69
Barnhart(-3) loses and then leaves a DT that Hayes(+1) gift-wrapped for him before picking off an LB. Zinter(+1) hit the gap and picked off the other. Jones is zone blocking his guy who goes inside so Haskins should bounce there but can't because a) MSU had an unaccounted-for safety in the box to collect a bounce (RPS-1) and b) the guy Barnhart lost is now in the backfield.
M28	3rd	2	Gun Wk	4-2-5	Nk Under	2	Pass	6.5	AMO	Henning	7	1.31
MSU is blitzing the Nk which puts Henning vs an ILB with no leverage (RPS+2). Would like him to lead Henning more for YAC but this throw guarantees a first down. (CA, 3, Prot 1/1, McNamara+1)
M35	1st	10	Gun Empty	4-2-5	Nk Over	2	Pass	6	RB Option	Corum	Inc	-1.01
Cade expecting Corum to sit but the LB played over and out so the dig the correct option. Almost becomes a pick. Yikes! (BR, 0, Prot 1/1, McNamara-2)
M35	2nd	10	Pistol FB Wk	4-2-5	Nk Over	2	Run	7	Counter CF	Corum	5	0.06
Barnhart(-3) rocked back and beat by Slade, Vastardis(+1) fixes by getting around and turning the DE but the LOS is moved back. All(+2) blows out the OLB. Hayes(-1) loses his seal on one LB and the other scrapes hard to hold it down but Corum(+1) dodged through Slade's tackle and fought for a few extra. Slade/Barnhart is a major matchup problem.
M40	3rd	5	Gun Wk Y-Flex Demi	4-2-5	Eagle AA	1	Pass	6	Mesh RB	Corum	Inc	-0.63
The Corum drop. Throw was fine, just didn't concentrate. CB had angle but with Corum vs a CB who knows. RPS+1 because the RB swing is the Mesh's first read and they left it wide open. (CA, 3, Prot 1/1, McNamara+1)
Drive Notes: Punt. 7-0. 7 min 1st Q. That one will stay burned in the ol' noggin.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
O30	1st	10	Offset Wk	4-2-5	Nk Over	2	Pass	6.5	Deep Hitch	Anthony	15	0.26
Keegan is in. MSU is running their old Dantonio 3-deep/2-under coverage that doesn't work with CBs who play off like they do (RPS+1). Haskins(+1) picks up a blitzer, and Cade has all day to find Anthony, as big and open and sure-handed as Derrick Alexander, under soft coverage. He fires as WR1 breaks. (CA+, 3, Prot 2/2, McNamara+1)
O15	1st	10	Pistol FB Ace	4-2-5	4-3 Even	2	Run	7	End Around	Johnson	10(-15)	-0.22
Slade fooled by handoff, CJ(+1) gets around a DE, and we're in business. Vastardis(+1) gets around the nickel and shoves him upfield, but it's All(+2) who takes out two blockers (one with his legs). I have to credit MSU here for throwing my charting off because Xavier Henderson was the backside safety and he got there before the frontside safety. Playside LB fought through Schoonmaker(-0.5) to be relevant in pursuit as well. It comes back on a ticky-tack holding on Anthony that isn't a refs minus because it is holding, but it's also mutual and I'm fine with it if they are going to call that both ways. (Spoiler: They do not.)
O18	1st	13	Gun Wk	4-2-5	Nk Over	2	Run	7	Arc Z Give	Haskins	5	0.11
MSU blitzes has both sides of this if the slanting DT crashes but he forms up so McCarthy(+1, read+) can give. That still takes away the inside (RPS-1, would be -2 or -3 if the DT knows what he's doing) but Vastardis(+2) caught the blitzer, passed him off to Zinter, and caught the Nk to make a new lane. Blitzer lets himself go for a ride to keep stay in that lane and keep it down. (Scorer gets it right, broadcast said it was 2nd and 9 next play).
O13	2nd	8	Gun Wk	4-2-5	Nk Over	2	Run	7.5	Counter Trey	Haskins	1	-0.31
McCarthy(read+) might have a keep read on the WLB but it's probably one of those "only if he's REALLY going" reads. Vastardis(-3) is batted out of the way by the backside DT so it doesn't matter that Zinter(+1) turns the edge and Schoonmaker(+0.5) gets a late kick because the DT is in HH's legs at the attack point.
O12	3rd	7	Gun Wk Tight	4-2-5	Nk Under A	1	Pass	7	AMO	Johnson	4	-0.04
MSU blitzes at this and Zinter(-1, RPS-2) is late out of his stance so he can't do anything about it. Cade has to chuck off his back foot to CJ who makes the grab and gives them a 4th and makeable. ol' Kick It Jimmy decides not to try it. (CA, 2, Prot 0/1, Zinter-1, McNamara+1)
Drive Notes: FG(26). 10-0. 4 min 1st Q. Mathlete says my numbers might be off but a FG here is worth -0.9662 expected points to mine.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M25	1st	10	Fritz	4-2-5	4-3 Even	2	RPO	7	Double Iso	Corum	9	1.25
Found this in the 2015 archives. There's a keep read McCarthy(RPO+) for a backside hitch that's covered but doesn’t affect the play. Neither does Stueber(-1) getting thrown down by the DE, that much. What does is Honigford(+1) slamming back the Nk who's playing SAM here, and then Corum(+0.5) and Zinter(+0.5) and Vastardis(+0.5) all joining in the rugby melee.
M34	2nd	1	Fritz	4-2-5	4-3 Even	2	Run	7	Double Lead	Corum	3	-0.23
It's like counter but two TEs. Schoonmaker(+0.5) gets a decent kick on Panasiuk who does some mutual grabbing then throws up his arms trying to draw a hold. Dirtball. All(-2) is expecting an LB outside and comes back to a guy who was late to the gap too late. Corum(+1) plants to beat the safety but All's guy makes the tackle.
M37	1st	10	Pistol Ace Twins	4-2-5	4-3 Over	2	Play-Action	7	Dumpoff	All	3	-0.42
Michigan has two deep routes and two dumpoffs vs zone (RPS-2) but the protection lasts so long that he gets two beats after Gus says "All day to throw." Finally checks down to All, who's got the most upside but doesn't get much, but isn't worth a + for the QB scoring. (CA, 3, Prot 3/3). MSU's horrific scorekeeper missed this play by the way, which is why the official stats are off.
M40	2nd	7	Gun Empty	4-2-5	Nk Spread	2	Pass	6	TE Cross	All	21	2.33
Great play by All(+3, route+) who crosses the S then fights for many extra yards after Cade puts it on the money from a clean pocket vs 5 rushers. Let's do this all day. All Big Ten! (DO, 3, Prot 2/2, McNamara+2)
O39	1st	10	Pistol FB Tackle Over Covered	4-2-5	4-3 Over	1	Run	7	Dbl Split Zone	Corum	1	-0.62
Hayes lines up on the right side and they run there. Stuff is mostly on Corum(-2) after All(+1) turned in a crashing end. A bounce and it's Corum and Wilson vs a safety and nickel.
O38	2nd	9	Gun Trips Bunch Tight	4-2-5	4-4 Over	1	Pass	8.5	Dumpoff	Haskins	10	1.00
Soft coverage has everyone covered but Haskins, who gets some underneath after a long time to survey other options. He bobbles the catch but collects it and gets upfield for the 1st. (CA, 3, Prot 2/2, McNamara+1)
O28	1st	10	Pistol FB 2TE	4-2-5	4-3 Over	2	Run	7	Counter CF	Corum	4	-0.04
Vastardis(+1) turns the edge, Zinter(+2) plowed his DT to bump into the LB that Hayes(-1) couldn't get to, and needs to for this to work (RPS-1). Baldwin(-1) could get nothing cracking the SS so Honigford(+0.5) uses himself up and that's a free LB and CB to meet after four yards.
O24	2nd	6	Gun Twins Heavy Covered	4-2-5	4-3 Over	1	Run	7.5	F Fold	Corum	3	-0.17
Jones in and covered. They want to run backside but MSU is slanting the opposite way (RPS-2) which wrecks all the angles. Somehow Zinter(+1) managed to get down to the first LB so Corum(+1) can hop over the unblocked S coming off the edge. If he can survive that he's a bounce from a TD. But the SS is Henderson, who gets ahold of an ankle, and it goes for naught.
O21	3rd	3	Offset Trips 2TE Covered	4-2-5	4-3 Over	1	Run	7.5	F Fold	Haskins	1	-0.47
RPS-2 they run the same goldang play. This time the MLB is shooting right at it in addition to the slant. He meets Haskins at the same time as the DE who slanted past Stueber(-1). Who TF let Al Borges in the coaching box? Also we kick a field goal on 4th and 2 now.
Drive Notes: FG(38). 13-7. 14 min 2nd Q. Critical early moment in a huge rivalry game and they run the Brady Hoke 27 for 27 offense. MSU has a killer fake to convert a 4th and 1 next drive to take the lead.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M22	1st	10	Gun Str Y-Flex	4-2-5	4-3 Under	1	Pass	7	TE Dig	All	15	1.22
MSU brings six on another 2-low/3-high pressure, though this time no RPS because Michigan isn't running its normal array of short routes. It's picked up but Hayes(-1) let the DE around. That DE has an arm around Cade as he zings this low where All can dig it out. More impressive on review. (DO, 2, Prot 2/3, Hayes-1, McNamara+3)
M37	1st	10	Pistol Ace Trips F Motion	4-2-5	4-3 Over	1	Run	7.5	Split Duo	Haskins	2	-0.51
Omigod stop running the stuff that only worked because NWern was overplaying your split zone! State walks down Henderson again. Vastardis(+1) thinks he's done enough to pass off his DT to Zinter(-2) who loses the guy. Barnhart(-1) has not done enough to help Hayes with Slade. All(+1) turns in Panasiuk and Schoonmaker(+2) has a kickout on Henderson with a CB caught behind it, so there's somewhere to go, but Haskins(-2) runs inside into the mess instead. RPS-1 because they're playing +1 in the box when they see this look.
M39	2nd	8	Offset Wk Tight	4-2-5	4-4 Under	2	Pass	8.5	Quick Out	Johnson	Inc	-0.98
Short crossers and CJ's comes open first. DE bats it in the air and fortunately nobody can find it before it comes down. (BA, n/a, Prot 1/1, McNamara-1)
M39	3rd	8	Gun Empty	4-2-5	Eagle AA	1	Pass	7	TE Leak	Schoonmaker	13	2.86
They bring 4 then one drops out but not far enough as Cade drifts away from the chaos of several guys going down after Zinter blocked his guy into the rest and lofts it over Panasiuk to Schoonmaker(+1), who's now got room to turn and make the first and gets more 5 more than that. (DO, 2, Prot 1/1, McNamara+2)
O48	1st	10	Pistol 2TE Trips Bunch	4-2-5	4-3 Even	2	Run	7	Counter CFF	Corum	6	0.33
It's Counter but both TEs are off the line and pull. Vastardis(-2) gets stood up on his kickout which causes a delay in the gap. All(+1) gets his kick, and then Honigford(+0.5) sneaks through to help on the LB Hayes(+1) couldn't control after moving his DT into the hands of Barnhart. Corum(+1) gets wrapped by Vastardis's guy after two and drags him for four more. Refs let a CB get a play-long hands to the face on CJ then stand over him and taunt.
O42	2nd	4	Pistol Ace Twins	4-2-5	4-3 Under	2	Run	8	Counter Trey	Haskins	24	0.77
Again they run the same play they just ran, and MSU (RPS-3) is all over it, slanting away and overloading the box with all the LBs plus a safety and CB. So Michigan's players go about fixing their coaches' bad playcall. Zinter(+1) turns in the crashing DE and seals. All(+2) gets under the LB who dove inside, popping that guy out and falling in such a way that his back holds off the unblocked CB. Hayes(+0.5) can't stay on a LB who's ready for just this, but stays on him and helps as Haskins(+3) shrugs that guy off at the line of scrimmage. Schoonmaker(+1) has an LB who came inside of him so he presses that guy against Hayes. That's all four. Haskins meets the other safety after 7 yards (who's got a ref in his path) and runs through him and finally drags the CB until the CB from the other side arrives and pops him in the mouth with his shoulder, which draws a targeting flag that doesn't (and shouldn't) stand up on review.
O18	1st	10	Pistol FB Tackle Over Covered	4-2-5	4-3 Odd	2	Run	6.5	Arc Z Give	Haskins	1	-0.27
I don't like that they cover the unbalanced TE—it sorta defeats the purpose. MSU also lines up with their NT head up which is a sign they're going to blitz. They do, and Barnhart(-2) can only get a pop but that guy comes through and interrupts Schoonmaker's lead block. Barnhart turns around and that means there's no blocker in the middle anymore. Haskins(+1) breaks the free LB's tackle but the guy Vastardis(-0.5) couldn't seal and a safety get the next shot and bring him down. RPS-2, MSU blitzed right into where Michigan was running.
O17	2nd	9	Pistol FB Ace	4-2-5	4-3 Even	1	Play-Action	7.5	PA Endzone Fade	Anthony	17	2.81
This is like that split flow counter option I hate where they dump it off to the TE, who's open for a short gain but Anthony(route+) inside-outsided his CB who's lost and doesn't even turn around as JJ slings this off his back foot to right to the #ButtZone. Anthony high-points with two hands like David Terrell against Wisconsin. (CA, 1, Prot n/a, McCarthy+2)
Drive Notes: Touchdown. 20-14. 3 min 2nd Q. Next drive starts with 1:13 and one timeout after the refs take away the strip sack TD and Henning lets the punt bounce back 25 yards. For clock drives I'm going to show the time left because it provides context.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M29	1st	10	Gun Empty	4-2-5	Nk Wide	1	Pass	7	TE Seam	All	21	1.93
1:13. Throw that should get more discussion for erasing the punt error. This goes over the hand of a guy trying to bat it at the line, over a leaping LB, and right to All between the safeties. Hot damn. (DO, 3, Prot 1/1, McNamara+3)
50	1st	10	Gun Wk F-Flex	4-2-5	Nk Over	3	Pass	6	Throwaway	Johnson	Inc	-1.11
1:07. CJ is in the area but odds are a completion isn't OOB so McNamara chucks it away to stop the clock. No minus, intentional. (TA, 0, Prot 1/1)
50	2nd	10	Gun Empty	4-2-5	Nk Wide	2	Pass	5	Dumpoff	Corum	4	-0.17
1:03. Zinter(-1) got spun through so Cade is throwing as this DT heads into his plant foot, which upgrades this from a BR—missed CJ open under soft coverage—to a TA for sticking too long on Corum's route when a catch will burn clock for 5 yards. (TA, 3, Prot 0/1, Zinter-1, McNamara-1)
O46	3rd	6	Gun Wk	4-2-5	Nk Over B	1	Pass	8	Hitch	Anthony	11	2.15
42 seconds. Thrown precisely on time to get Anthony(+1) room to take an orbit step. He does, and with Tyrone Butterfield-like effort he makes it there. (DO, 3, Prot 1/1, McNamara+2)
O35	1st	10	Gun Wk	4-2-5	Nk Wide	1	Pass	6.5	Throwaway	McNamara	Inc(+5)	0.79
36 seconds. Catch MSU offsides. Free shot at the endzone with 35 seconds left but Cade drifts out of the pocket, gets pressure, and chucks it away instead of taking a shot. Had CJ in single coverage and maybe Anthony too. (TA, n/a, Prot 2/2, McNamara-2)
O30	1st	5	Gun Wk	4-2-5	Nk Wide	1	Pass	6	TE Leak	All	8	-0.46
30 seconds. Verts draws away the coverage so he dumps to All(+1) who gets the ball near the LOS and gets the first plus a few. (CA, 3, Prot 1/1, McNamara+1)
O22	1st	10	Gun Wk	4-2-5	Nk Wide	1	Pass	6	Hitch	Wilson	5	0.07
19 seconds. Checks down to a play that can't get the 1st or OOB. This is harsh but Henning was breaking open down the opposite hash as the FS was caught between two seams and chose All. (TA, 3, Prot 1/1, McNamara-1) Also 4 seconds tick off before M calls timeout.
O17	2nd	5	Gun Empty	4-2-5	Nk Wide	2	Pass	5	Fade	Anthony	Inc	-0.43
12 seconds. Could get to Corum for a first but they take a shot at Anthony at the three. Ball is too high if he catches he's OOB. (IN, 1, Prot 1/1, McNamara-1)
O17	3rd	5	Gun Empty	4-2-5	Nk Wide	2	Pass	5	Fade	Johnson	Inc	-0.53
10 seconds. One more shot and it goes too long for CJ to have a shot. Might have been interfered—hard to tell without a replay and Fox has no replays. (IN, 0, Prot 1/1, McNamara-1)
Drive Notes: FG(35). 23-14. EoH. Really hope all the points left on the board don't come back to bite us in the 2nd half you guys.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M25	1st	10	Pistol FB Wk	4-2-5	Nk Even	2	Run	6	Counter Trey	Haskins	1	-0.59
MSU adds a safety to the backside and flares both LBs, RPS-2, and Stueber(-2) doesn't recognize it in time to get to one of them but chases anyway instead of tagging the safety. Keegan(+1) turned the edge and All(+1) got his kick, but the MLB is free to hit at the LOS. Haskins(+1) makes him miss but the safety gets him right away.
M26	2nd	9	Gun Wk	4-2-5	Nk Even	2	Pass	6	Dumpoff	Henning	Inc	-0.41
Zinter(-1) doesn't pick up a twist and then Stueber(-1) inexplicably lets his through as well. Cade is looking at a levels read that's covered and might come back to the flare opening backside but has to bail and throw low at Henning for 3 yards. He's got an LB on him trying to catch the ball through his head, and is going to the ground so he can't bring it in. (PR, 1, Prot 0/2, Zinter-1, Stueber-1)
M26	3rd	9	Gun Str Y-Flex	4-2-5	Nk Wide AD	1	Pass	6	TE Post	All	15	2.41
With all due respect to the 93-yard TD, this is the throw of the day. Vastardis(-2) leaves his looper to help on a guy Hayes and Keegan have handled. Cade can't step up, which means he's going to eat a DE at 9 yards in a beat, and slings over the ref's head again right on All's hands while falling away from the DE. Incredible throw. This guy plays for us!!! (DO+, 3, Prot 0/2, Vastardis-2, McNamara+4)
M41	1st	10	Pistol FB 3TE	4-2-5	4-4 Under	1	Play-Action	8.5	TE Flat	All	2	-0.53
Three-man route, PA sucks up the LBs and Cade decides against the quick seam that's there for a moment. LB leaves All(-1) so it goes to him for what should be 5 yards. He tries to put a move on a charging HSP and gets dropped after two. Borderline here but we don't have a replay to know how dangerous the single high safety was and this should have been a decent gain. (CA, 3, Prot 1/1, McNamara+0.5)
M43	2nd	8	Gun Ace	4-2-5	4-3 Under	2	Pass	7	Dumpoff	Haskins	8	1.43
First read is a fly to CJ but he's getting comically held by the CB (refs-2). Haskins(+1) releases late as Vastardis(-1) is losing Slade, gets the ball at the LOS and makes yards, twisting 180 degrees through a form tackle to get over the 1st down marker. Got an assist from All(+0.5) who impeded the LB but puts his hands up so they won't call a blindside block on him. Extra effort moment. (CA, 3, Prot 2/3, Vastardis-1, McNamara+1)
O49	1st	10	Offset Twins	4-2-5	4-3 Even	1	RPO	8	Buck GC/Slants	Haskins	1	-0.86
McNamara(RPO+) has a read but they're in man1 so you can barely tell. Schoonmaker(-1) gets wrong-shouldered by his DE then falls down so he can't work down to the LB level, is saved some because All(+1) sticks that guy off-balance then leaves to pop the guy Schoonmaker was working on. Zinter(+1) ejects one LB for the kickout side but Vastardis(-1) eats instead of pops the LB flowing to the hole. That LB plus Henderson can clean up now. RPS-1 because MSU was +1 in the box with Henderson and the RPO did nothing about that. Refs might have missed a targeting--I can't tell from my video if this is helmet to helmet or shoulder to helmet.
O48	2nd	9	Gun Empty	4-2-5	Nk Wide	1	Pass	6	RB Option	Corum	8	0.82
Keegan(-1) loses Slade inside but the rest is solid enough to get this out to Corum(+1) who makes a LB miss and is inches short of a first. (CA, 3, Prot 0/1, Keegan-1, McNamara+1)
O40	3rd	1	Pistol Trips Bunch	4-2-5	4-3 Over	1	Run	7	Dive	Corum	0	-1.15
Tempo(32) catches Henderson yelling at a CB but it's also asking Henning(-1, RPS-3) to pick up a blitzing LB. He does not, and Zinter(-1) is shocked back into Corum as he's trying to fight through the LB, and this gets stuffed. We are the worst team at Tempo. Also if we were the kind of team that would have a midline read maybe it would have worked. Or QB SNEAK FOR CRYING OUT LOUD.
O40	4th	1	Goal Line	4-2-5	Goal Line	1	Penalty	10	False Start	Schoonmaker	PEN	-1.09
One of those false starts that's on the D in the NFL because the DT and DE flinch to get the reaction. Schoonmaker(-1) is allowed to move because he's in the backfield so technically the penalty should be on Jones, but he moved when Schoonmaker did, so the minus is on Schoonmaker.
O45	4th	6	Punt	na	Punt	na	Punt	na	Accidental Fake Punt	Robbins	5	-3.21
Not charted but Robbins bobbles the snap and now he has to run, gets around the DT. Seltzer had a chance to block the LB who stops this, but looks back and misses his window. Fox sprints to a commercial so we never got to see the replay.
Drive Notes: Turnover on Downs. 23-14. 10 min 3rd Q. The tempo-false start-botched punt sequence is a good candidate for events that could have changed the game.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M46	1st	10	Gun Wk	4-2-5	4-3 Even	2	Run	7	Bash Keeper	McCarthy	12	0.89
RPS+2 as they're blitzing the RB but McCarthy(+2, read+1) keeps. He also runs by a surprised frontside DE that Zinter(-1) was supposed to block. Henning(+2) has the safety pinned while CJ(+1) keeps the CB out so this goes until pursuit catches up, flings him down hard, points at the sideline to let the ref know that he was inbounds so that's legal.
O42	1st	10	Pistol Trips	4-2-5	Nk Even	1	Pass	7	Scramble	McNamara	20	0.65
This could have been a TD, as MSU is in Cov3 and the CB isn't deep as Henning cuts to the pylon, open, because that CB is part of the run defense. RPS+2. Cade is watching this develop but Keegan has Slade coming out of his lane and Cade dodges past it. Meanwhile the CB has bailed to try to catch Henning, which means there's nobody for 30 yards to stop McNamara from taking 20; he does so, slinking by a LB in the process. No, we don't give up bad reads for 20-yard plays. Cade upgraded to a 2 on the Navarre-Robinson scale. (SCR, n/a, Prot 1/1, McNamara+2)
O22	1st	10	Offset Wk	4-2-5	Nk Even	1	Pass	7	Flea-Flicker	Anthony	Inc	-0.40
Daw. This springs Anthony by a few yards (RPS+3) but the ball sails too far and goes off Anthony's outstretched fingers like he's Kekoa Crawford. (IN, 1, Prot n/a, McNamara-1)
O22	2nd	10	Pistol FB Wk	4-2-5	Nk Even	1	Play-Action	7	Split Flow Counter	All	3	-0.16
Wondering when they would run the SFC That Seth Hates. They catch man so it works as they want it to and CJ(+1) gets a good kickout, but Sainristil(-2) gets almost nothing on the HSP who gets out and stops this for a minimal gain. RPS-1 this play needs two WR blocks to work and it's so well scouted at this point that its best possible outcome is 3-5 yards. (CA, screen, Prot n/a)
O19	3rd	7	Gun Trips	4-2-5	Nk Over	2	Pass	7	Deep Cross	Sainristil	19	3.16
Again Keegan(-1) is losing Slade. Cade stands in and delivers a perfect shot to Sainristil(route+) who's dusted the FS, can walk in. (DO, 3, Prot 1/2, Keegan-1)
Drive Notes: Touchdown. 30-14. 6 min 3rd Q. This is the moment the hope got in.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M20	1st	10	Pistol FB Tackle Over Covered	4-2-5	4-3 Over	1	Run	7	Power Lead	Corum	11	0.78
Barnhart(-2) thrown into the backfield by Slade off the snap, which disrupts Zinter's pull but is survived because frontside blocking lasts long enough. Stueber(+1) gets down to an LB, Hayes(+1) gets movement on the DE, All(+1) kicks Henderson on the edge, and Zinter(+1) arrives to pop the MLB in the hole as Corum(+1) slips though and hurdles the high safety at 5 yards to add five more--that FS's dive is just enough to prevent this from being an 80-yarder.
M31	1st	10	Gun Str Y-Flex	4-2-5	4-3 Over	1	Pass	7	Hitch	Johnson	6	0.38
I sometimes wonder what it would be like to chart WKU. Hitch, caught. (CA, 3, Prot 1/1, McNamara+1)
M37	2nd	4	Pistol FB Y-Flex	4-2-5	4-3 Even	2	Run	7.5	Counter CF	Haskins	2	-0.66
Vastardis(+1) turns Beesley, and All(-1) doesn't kick or shoulder or anything on the CB blitzing. That's an RPS-2 since MSU is slanting with that to deliver a free LB behind it that All is lining up instead. Hayes(+1) makes himself useful by sealing the WLB outside, and All did pop the LB who showed so if Haskins can break this CB's dive attempt it's big yards and if not it's not a minus. It's not. Beesley then gets a free driving tackle on Vastardis after the whistle, and taunts him.
M39	3rd	2	Pistol 3TE	4-2-5	4-4 Over	1	Run	9	Split Duo	Haskins	8	1.79
MSU is selling out against Split Zone, slanting frontside, so M opens a back door. Vastardis(+1) is rocked back by Slade but plants him on the ground and Barnhart(+1) gets a good kick on the edge, and Zinter(+0.5) productively rides his slanting DT to the ground while putting his butt between the rest of the slanters and the play. Haskins(+1) hits the cutback lane before arms can stop him, then drags an LB for 5 yards. RPS+1.
M47	1st	10	Pistol FB Tackle Over Covered	4-2-5	4-4 Even	1	Run	8	Counter F Insert	Corum	-2	-1.60
I don't know what the plan is here since Schoonmaker heads backside to block the backside that Honigford is already blocking. Maybe designed cut away from the puller? We'll never know because Barnhart(-3) completely blows his assignment, allowing a DT directly into the backfield. RPS-2 if they are running backside MSU has numbers, while a regular counter has some legs with the two Ts getting good movement.
M45	2nd	12	Gun Wk X Tight	4-2-5	Nk Even	1	Pass	6.5	Dumpoff	All	3	-0.34
Barnhart(-2) again the issue as he's overwhelmed by a DT and Cade has to dump it down. Best available decision among bad ones, so (CA, 3, Prot 0/2, Barnhart-2)
M48	3rd	9	Gun Str Y-Flex	4-2-5	Eagle AAB	1	Pass	7	Throwaway	Anthony	Inc	-0.62
Nickel blitz comes, Corum(-1) sees him too late. Cade is staring down Anthony's out when All is sitting in all the space the nickel blitzed out of. Cade finally sees the blitz but now he's out of time, throws it away and takes a shot. (BR, 0, Prot 1/2, Corum-1, McNamara-2)
Drive Notes: Punt. 30-22. 15 min 4th Q. Where's Keegan? Where's Filiaga? I don't get our guard rotation.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M25	1st	10	Gun Wk	4-2-5	Nk Wide	1	Run	6.5	Bash	Corum	2	-0.35
Read is to the edge but MSU has numbers backside (RPS-1). All(+1) got the Nk locked up by there's nobody for Henderson, who comes down and sticks. Good defense but Corum(-1) tries to re-edge after turning it up, runs out of room and gets sticked.
M27	2nd	8	Gun Empty	4-2-5	Eagle D	2	Pass	5	Stick	All	Inc	-0.58
Zinter(-1) doesn't pick up the twist but Cade can still get it to All if Vastardis(-1) isn't shoved back by Slade, who gets an arm up and bats a dangerous pass in the air. (BA, n/a, Prot 0/2, Zinter-1, Vastardis-1)
M27	3rd	8	Gun Trips	4-2-5	Eagle AA	1	Pass	7.5	Corner	Sainristil	43	4.19
They get Sainristil matched on a LB and he's open by leagues (RPS+2). All(-1) gets distracted from a looper so there is pressure coming after the rest of this six-man attack is picked up. Cade puts it 35 yards downfield, opposite side, where Sainristil needs to break just one tackle to get the other 30 yards, but the FS gets him down by a leg, which is another of those moments. (DO, 3, Prot 2/3, All-1, McNamara+2)
O30	1st	10	Offset Str Y Flex	4-2-5	4-3 Even	1	Pass	7	Quick Out	Johnson	6	0.21
Soft coverage, quick out, catch. (CA, 3, Prot 1/1, McNamara+1)
O24	2nd	4	Offset Str Y Flex	4-2-5	Nk Even	2	Run	6	Split Duo	Haskins	4	-0.01
MSU slanting away from cross flow which delivers an unblocked LB (RPS-1) while Stueber(+1) clears his DE all the way down the backside safety and Schoonmaker(+1) gets a good kick, giving Haskins(+1) room to do something with the LB. He drags him for a first down. One refs thinks it's a facemask and throws a flag but really the MSU guy has his wrist under the bar not his hand in there, and another ref sees that and overrules him.
O20	1st	10	Gun Wk	4-2-5	4-3 Even	2	Run	7	Arc Z Keep	McCarthy	-1	-0.46
Shuffling DE is a good keep read but then McCarthy(-3, read+), Schoonmaker(+1) gets a good seal that helps Henning get his guy down too, but MSU again has numbers to the backside (RPS-1) in the form of this Cov2 FS who screams down. JJ tries to stiffarm, misses, breaks the tackle, and drops the ball he's got chicken-winged. He's fortunate it's kicked out of bounds. Somewhere the internet fires up its takes engine.
O21	2nd	11	Gun Wk Orbit	4-2-5	Nk Over	2	Pass	7.5	Scramble	McNamara	3	-0.16
One side is just an orbit screen set up for Henning that Cade turns down because MSU sends the MLB out there—should still throw it because that just matches numbers and Sainristil(+1) cut the nickel down already so that's going to be MLB vs Henning. Cade steps up as both DEs are flung by, sees the other LB head for Haskins, and starts running, sees Henderson coming down, and gives himself up after 3 yards. (TA, n/a, Prot 1/1, McNamara-1)
O18	3rd	8	Offset Trips	4-2-5	Eagle DE	1	Pass	7	Corner	Henning	Inc	-0.61
Henning(route-) has leverage vs the FS but then misjudges the pass, which is to the back of the endzone. He finds it, tries to adjust, and gets grabbed by the FS who has never looked back. Refs-2 decide he wasn't getting to a ball that bounces on the back of the endzone I guess.
Drive Notes: FG(36). 33-30. 12 min 4th Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M45	1st	10	Pistol FB Tackle Over Covered	4-2-5	4-3 Over	1	Run	8	Counter Trey	McCarthy	-4	-6.48
I've zaprudered this moment 20 times, and another 75 times in my head, and I'll run it 80 more tonight if I ever get to bed, and unless I see something different then I'm convinced Corum(-4) didn't get the playcall because there's no read and everyone else is blocking, but McCarthy(-1) gets a ding too for not putting it in his basket. After all that Harbaugh said it was Corum.
Drive Notes: Fumble. 33-30. 7 min 4th Q. Doctors: How many days is it normal to be trapped in a state between system-shuddering shock and nausea before you see someone?
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M25	1st	10	Pistol 2TE	4-2-5	Nk Under	2	Pass	6.5	Fade	Johnson	Inc	-0.70
This could give CJ more room away from the CB but Johnson has to bring this in. It goes right through his arms and hits his chest. (CA, 2, Prot 1/1, McNamara+1)
M25	2nd	10	Gun Empty	4-2-5	Nk Over	2	Pass	6	TE Out	All	7	0.31
Out of time because Stueber(-1) is beat off the edge, delivers to All underneath. (CA, 3, Prot 0/1, Stueber-1, McNamara+1)
M32	3rd	3	Gun Wk Tight	4-2-5	Eagle	1	Pass	8	Mesh Z	Johnson	Inc	-0.51
Mesh short of the sticks but this is at least accurate and would give CJ a shot to fall backwards if caught. It's not. (CA, 3, Prot 1/1, McNamara+1)
M32	4th	3	Gun Empty	4-2-5	Eagle 2A	1	Pass	8	Slant	Sainristil	7	2.13
Sainristil(route+) has to get across this Nk, does, ball is put where he can get it while falling to the ground. Anthony's guy also got shook. (CA, 2, Prot 1/1, McNamara+1)
M39	1st	10	Pistol FB Wk	4-2-5	Nk Even	1	Run	6	Counter CF	Corum	0	-1.11
Panasiuk cuts Vastardis (RPS-2) as MSU is selling out against this. That's a holdup that ruins Schoonmaker's angle, but it may be a survivable yet if Barnhart(-2) doesn't lose Slade while staring at it.
M39	2nd	10	Gun Str Y-Flex	4-2-5	4-3 Even	1	Pass	7	Deep Out	Anthony	12	2.20
Four-man rush but has to last to a third read, which is Anthony coming back under his deep out to dig this out at midfield and rescue his quarterback like he's Greg McMurtry.
O49	1st	10	Gun Empty	4-2-5	Nk Wide	1	Pass	5.5	Hitch	Johnson	8	0.82
Three-man rush and Cade has time after rolling to look around but already sees CJ(+1) who breaks one tackle but the second guy gets his leg.
O41	2nd	2	Offset Wk F-motion	4-2-5	Nk Under	1	Run	6	Arc Read Give	Corum	3	-0.15
MSU playing nothing outside so McNamara(+1, read+1) hands to Corum and this goes in the usual SZ gap behind a double by Hayes(+1) and Barnhart(+1) that isn't much of a gap because Schoonmaker(-1) couldn't decide if he should turn or kick the edge and ends up just blocking him a yard. Kick was the answer, definitively, since there's an extra LB hanging outside.
O38	1st	10	Gun Wk	4-2-5	Nk Even	2	Pass	6.5	Fade	Anthony	Inc	-0.78
This is so close to being a Braylon Edwards catch but Anthony just can't get his foot down inbounds after sky-pointing the thing. (MA, 1, Prot 1/1, McNamara-0.5)
O38	2nd	10	Gun Empty	4-2-5	Nk Wide	1	Pass	6.5	Quick Out	Anthony	7	0.44
Pitch a titch late, so Anthony does't get a chance to hurdle a fool like Devin Funchess before he's thunked OOB. (CA-, 3, Prot 1/1, McNamara+0.5)
O31	3rd	3	Gun Empty	4-2-5	Nk Wide	0	Pass	8	Fade	Sainristil	Inc	-0.92
MSU has nobody deep so they take their shot. Sainristil(route+) has two steps on the CB, ball just needs to stay in the air a moment longer or be a foot shorter. Refs-2 miss a very YouGottaCallThat hold on the other side, where the CB on Anthony rips him down by his shoulderpad. (IN, 0, Prot 1/1, McNamara-2) Panasiuk is hurt after the play but we don't see why--Tucker is saying something to the ref. Zero on the film to say what that was.
O31	4th	3	Gun Empty	4-2-5	Eagle	1	Pass	6.5	Slant	Johnson	Inc	-1.06
I don't get it, because this is a pick route that springs Sainristil so open he might take it the distance. It's also EXTREME pass interference as the guy getting picked shoves Johnson while the ball is in the air before crashing into his friend, who is impeding Johnson as well. Refs-4 decide the game. Doesn't excuse McNamara for not throwing to the guy the play is designed for. (BR, 0, Prot 1/1, McNamara-2)
Drive Notes: Turnover on Downs. 33-37. 1:43 4th Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M33	1st	10	Gun Empty	4-2-5	Nk Wide	2	Pass	4	Deep Out	Anthony	Inc(+15)	1.42
1:15. Might have room to get it to Anthony underneath but Barnhart(-1) isn't going to hold up to Slade another beat so he chucks it OOB in that direction, which is the best thing here so no minus. Sparty DE chucks Cade to the ground well after the ball's away for a free 15 yards. (Not charted, 0, Prot 1/2, Barnhart-1)
M48	1st	10	Gun Empty	4-2-5	Eagle	2	Pass	4	TE Fade	Schoonmaker	INT	-5.24
1:09. Mostly a great play by the MSU DB to drift off Anthony as this is thrown and tip it out of Schoonmaker's hands. Cade also has plenty of time against a three-man rush and doesn't need to force this.
Drive Notes: Interception. 33-37. 1 min 4th Q. Game Over.

Okay I’m read for it now.

Ready for what?

The chart. Lay it on me.

Which chart, the blocking one?

The one with the DOs and the CAs and Dead-On plus and all that.

Man you are healthy about this. Don’t we talk first? Lists of drives, perspective, whatnot?

That’s when we’re trying to avoid talking about the quarterback. It no longer applies.

Yeah, well know what else no longer applies? The starter controversy.

CADE MCNAMARA

	Good				Neutral			Bad					Ovr			Reads
Game	DO	CA	SCR		PR	MA		BA	TA	IN	BR		DSR	GRADE!		RPOs	ZRs
W. Michigan	3+	3(3)-						2			1		67%	+5		4/5	2/7
Washington	1	3(2)-			2	(1)			3	1(1)	2		40%	-8		5/5	4/9
NIU	2	7+ -			1	1							100%	+11		1/2	1/2
Rutgers	3+	5-			1	1				5xx	1		57%	+2.5		2/2	1/6
Wisconsin	6	13	1		1	2		1	1	4x	2x		71%	+10.5		2/3	1/2
Nebraska	3+	13(2)-			3	6		3	3	6	1x		55%	-1.5		1/3	2/2
Northwestern	2	11(5)+			2	2		1	3	4xx	1		59%	-1		5/7	5/8
Michigan St	9++	19(1)+ -	1		1	1		2	5	5	4		64%	+20.5		1/2	1/1

(reminder: you can hover over the letters in the headers if you forget what they mean, or there’s an explainer in the glossary)

JJ MCCARTHY

	Good				Neutral			Bad					Ovr			Reads
Game	DO	CA	SCR		PR	MA		BA	TA	IN	BR		DSR	GRADE!		RPOs	ZRs
W. Michigan	1+++	2				3		1x		1			60%	-2		0/0
NIU		4+							1		1		67%	+4		2/2	3/3
Wisconsin	1												100%	+2		2/2	4/6
Nebraska		1											100%	-		1/1	2/2
Northwestern	1	(2)								2	1		25%	+2		0/1	1/2
Michigan St.		2(1)											100%	+2		1/1	4/4

I am very glad Brian added QB grades last year because the difference between “Dead-on” and “Catchable” wasn’t showing in the downfield success rating metric. The +20.5 (+38/-17.5) is almost twice any previous McNamara outing’s score, and twice the volume of graded stuff as well. I will stop short of “awesome” because he left some stuff to clean up, sure, but he also was dead-on when Michigan needed him to be. Lost in the wallowing of all the moments that could have been were many moments that were not expected to be. You could just as easily point to this game as one where Cade McNamara kept them in it with one crucial pass after another.

In the end I was having a hard time ranking my favorites. In terms of sure relief, it’s the 4th down deep in Michigan territory after MSU took its lead.

But that’s just an honorable mention next to several throws he laid in perfectly despite being under pressure. This can’t be placed any better.

After watching NFL quarterbacks and Oklahoma quarterbacks and Oklahoma quarterbacks in the NFL more than usual I had begun to seriously pine for the kinds of timing floaters they routinely put between zones to tight ends with ridiculous catch radii. I never thought I’d see a Boomer sooner than Sunday, but here we are:

This one is just incredible. He’s falling away from the pressure while floating this over coverage with the referee his throwing lane.

Almost as good was the one that sprung Andrel Anthony into the annals of Michigan Unos. Once again, he’s got to thread this through many obstacles, and it goes precisely where he means to.

Cade wasn’t perfect, nor was able to finish the job. Taken together his day was magnificent, but the next morning the first two throws in my head were his missing Sainristil on the penultimate play of the penultimate drive, and throwing at the pick guy on the ensuing 4th down instead of the guy the pick opened up.

What was he thinking?

I called that a bad read. It didn’t get the dreaded “x” appendage because his intended receiver was interfered with twice after he put the ball in the air. I also gave him a bad read for the interception at the end, but that was harsh, since he’s trying to make a play late and the MSU cornerback started drifting off Anthony as McNamara was winding up. Are the Spartans still here? That was a great play by your guy, there. Tip of the cap to him.

Anyway by that point everyone but the insane had come around on QB1. When Michigan got the ball back down four with 5 minutes left, my thought was “He’s got this.” Fan brains are too reactive—I can’t not mention that MSU had one of the worst passing defenses, statistically, of anyone on our schedule—so I can’t say that “light on” Cade McNamara is what we’re going to get the rest of the way. It does change the direction he’s tracking from the Peters/Speight/Milton/Patterson downslope to the Rudock/2016 Speight upslope. It also should mean the coaches will trust the passing game to do more than bail out the run game when it gets caught on a bad RPS run. Since Michigan doesn’t play in the Big Ten West, that’s going to matter.

This is also weird to mention but thanks to a redshirt in 2019 and everybody getting Covid shirt last year, Cade still has freshman eligibility.

So why were we still messing around with JJ?

I was still okay with McCarthy coming in an out of the game right up until he did this:

Everyone was shocked when McCarthy came out at the start of the next drive, because we’ve all watched enough football to know a guy who chicken wing fumbles in a situation like that gets some bench time to think about it. The program issued a statement to the media that McNamara was being seen to in the sideline tent for something, but the other fumble happened so fast, and Fox was so intent on cutting to an ad as soon as they had the opportunity, that the broadcasters never shared that information. The only media to do so at the time (that I’m aware of; I stopped following play-by-play reporters) was Matt “The Miz” Missler, the guy who operates the studio for Sam and Ira sometimes. Thank you Miz! Since the program still hasn’t said what Cade was doing in there, I assume it was his business, and we can leave it at that.

I didn’t want to see the freshman at that moment either.

I’m going to take some heat for this, but I think he should still be part of the gameplan as a change of pace quarterback. The only argument against it would be you don’t want to mess with McNamara’s rhythm, but he seemed fine in this game, and it could be equally beneficial to a young quarterback to come out, discuss the last play and what he saw, prep the next one, then go back in.

It’s also hell on a defense to get whipsawed between two entirely different styles of offense—what about their rhythm, huh? While Michigan fans tired of the constant in-and-out every play between the two QBs, but it also caused Michigan State to lose track of which guy was in there, which is the only explanation for why they’re so keyed on the running back on this play that McCarthy can just run by a DE that Zinter missed on a kickout.

And McCarthy’s Not Just a Runner, as this game also showed. The touchdown throw to Anthony was supposed to be set up by months of split flow counters where the receivers are blocking, but the cornerback stayed on his man, though without any hope of looking back. McCarthy put it where Anthony could get it and his coverage’s best hope was to interfere.

That where, by the way, is somewhere.

Andrel Anthony is their best receiver!

I thought you were the texts from Jason Sklar; that was Randy’s take.

I am many Sklars. Also I am lifted directly from BiSB in the mgoslack later on down. I can be anybody. Also, I’m right.

Caveat Ronnie Bell, at least in this game there wasn’t any doubt. The Dudes always seem to have a way of announcing their arrivals—Denard untying Western Michigan, Hart turning 3 yards into 13 versus SDSU, Braylon high-pointing a 50-yarder against Washington, Desmond Howard trying to answer Rocket Ismail. If Andrel Anthony is going to join them, there are less memorable beginnings than making people accidentally limerick:

OH MY GOD ANDREL
OH MY GOD ANDREL
FROM EAST LANSING MICHIGAN THROUGH EAST LANSING MICHIGAN
OH MY GOD ANDREL

— Seth M. Fisher (@Misopogon) October 30, 2021

He also nearly had a catch for the ages, going up into the Woodson zone to catch this and almost managing to get his foot back down.

And the afore mentioned TD from JJ, and a bunch of other moments that tested how well I can relate the history of the #1 jersey. Of those, this play was as underrated as Tyrone Butterfield:

Given the lightning speed the officials were setting the chains on this drive, getting out of bounds may have won Michigan those two opportunities at a fade TD before Moody went in to kick four field goals.

Since we’re all taking victory laps for our hot takes this week, who said this in Andrel’s recruiting profile:

I am also calling Andrel Anthony Jr. my SLEEPER OF THE YEAR, if this is the spot to do it, and add a prediction that we haven’t seen his last 100-yard game in East Lansing.

Who said that? Who called it? Yoooooo, hold out your hands, people because I’m slapping them violently.

And the rest of the receivers?

Chart.

	THIS WEEK					THIS YEAR
Player	Uncb	Circus	Tough	Routine		Uncb	Circus	Tough	Routine
Johnson	3	1/1	1/2	3/4		10	2/11	5/7	15/16
Baldwin						4	0/5	6/8	5/7
Sainristil	1		1/1	2/2		2	2/7	2/3	10/10
Henning		0/1		1/1		3	0/1	1/2	2/2
Wilson				1/1		1	2/3	1/1	9/10
Dixon						1	0/1		1/1
Anthony	1	1/4	1/1	4/4		1	1/4	1/1	5/5
x Bell x							1/2	1/1
All			1/1	9/9		2	0/3	5/6	20/20
Schoonmaker		0/1	1/1			2	0/3	1/1	6/6
Honigford						2		0/1	1/1
Seltzer								0/1
Hibner
Corum	1			2/3		2	1/1	1/1	18/20
Haskins				2/2		1			4/4
Edwards						1	0/1		1/1

Routes: Sainristil+3, All+, Anthony+, Henning-

I’m mad at myself for how this charting worked out—I think maybe the second Anthony TD was a “2” not the “1” I gave it—but this isn’t scientific. Johnson had a couple of crucial drops back to back, but he also had a play everyone’s forgotten the play right before THE PLAY in this game, when McNamara threw it inside, almost right at a defender, from the endzone and Johnson casually tipped it back to himself for a forgettable 6-yard gain. This is sadly where I’m least confident as the new UFR guy, because there haven’t been enough cases to get comfortable. Do you give Sainristil a “2” or a “3” for catching it wide open 45 yards downfield? Should his laser-precise routes matter more?

The volume is notable, of course, especially for Erick All, who had a hell of a day.

No Longer Just the Weilder of Moljnir Thunder God Erick All!

The Jake Butt comparisons don’t have to be iffy anymore. All was the most reliable pair of hands on the field, McNamara’s favorite target when he bailed Michigan out of passing down after passing down. One time he got Michigan a new set of downs then took a linebacker for a ride throw the next one.

All of those were so catchable that I labeled them threes except when McNamara took a hit and All had to dig it out.

The low sample size early career dropsy thing is over. All is all that and a bag of mean blocking chips. Here’s that play Haskins bailed out from an RPS loss, because All had a major hand in the rescue as well:

#83 TE motioning in then coming across with the flow action

That’s a linebacker selling out so hard against Michigan’s power running game that he’s literally flying into the gap. All not only catches the dude mid-air, he does so while walling off the cornerback. That’s two defenders, one of them airborne when All arrives on the scene, that he takes care of so Haskins can break this into a big gain. Butt was never that kind of two-way weapon. All isn’t in that realm as a receiver, but he’s probably going to end up the best dual-threat TE of a rich era. We’re scouting Butt-like Peyton Hendershot this week, so if All’s going to be the 1st teamer on the all-conference team, this is the week to earn it.

So RCMB was right: Everything we thought we knew about Michigan’s offense was exposed.

That’s, uh…

That’s how it works, man. Spartans win, we acknowledge RCMB was right about everything. It’s about respect. Also they’re all here already to see if you’re going to complain about the officiating. Hi guys! /waves.

That is indefatigable logic. What Sparty takes are we acknowledging?

Our two backs were not worth one Kenneth Walker III.

In yardage, YPC, TDs, and who’s the new Heisman frontrunner, you’re right. I would still take two of these guys over one who proved himself on another level, and moved up to #2 on PFF’s running back board for this season, passing Haskins on the way.

Haskins stayed on pace to finish top five though, and my scoring agreed. Just as he did last year, when his MSU performance would ultimately lead to me buying his jersey, Haskins was finding ways to make you stand up and root. Here he is playing offensive tackle long enough for McNamara to find Hassan Haskins the wide receiver. Also there would be no opportunity for a dumb 3rd and 1 call this time.

He also reprised his role from last year’s MSU game as the dude who makes something happen when everything else is going wrong. I just showed you Erick All on this play. Watch Haskins.

Corum, by his standards, had a terrible day, lowlighted by the fumble that changed everything. Harbaugh confirmed it was on him, by the way.

I also thought he missed a bounce on an otherwise well-blocked Tackle Over play that could have resulted in 10 yards or 30. And then you factor in the drop on the swing pass that might not be a touchdown but given where everyone’s momentum was carrying them and Corum’s usual self, we all thought it would be.

One bad game doesn’t take the shine off his star. He had enough leeway in PFF’s scoring that he remained their #1 back in the country this week. That’s probably just Walker disrespect and should be ignored, because of the outcome of this game rules all, and in this game the bad covered up the good. Walker’s godlike status acknowledged, Corum is still a pretty good running back, and he still produced a spattering of +1s that were close to being +3s if he got out of a leg grab or something. Odds are he’ll bounce back.

May I see this charting you speak of?

Chart.

Offensive Line
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Hayes	5.5	3	+2.5	Not such a different that tackle-over was a good idea.
Keegan	1	2	-1	Much better than Barnhart, played way less. Still injured maybe?
Vastardis	8.5	12	-3.5	Turned some DEs, caught some blitzers, got pushed around a lot.
Filiaga			DNP	Played well while injured last week, so where was he?
Stueber	2.5	6	-3.5	MSU slants got under him too often.
Zinter	9.5	9	+0.5	Moved guys, lots of targeting/protection rust.
Barnhart	3	20	-17	Yikes! Total mismatch vs Slade, mental errors sabotaged run game.
T.Jones			DNC	Sixth OL package wasn't effective.
Crippen			DNP
Atteberry			DNP
All	17.5	5	+12.5	And an awesome day receiving. All-Big Ten lock.
Schoonmaker	8	4.5	+3.5	Solid day vs meh linebackers.
Honigford	2	2	0	Role reduced so they could slap a #80 on Jones or run tackle over.
Hibner			DNP
Seltzer			DNC	Could have blocked for Robbins on the accidental fake punt.
TOTAL	57.5	63.5	-6	I don't get playing Barnhart if Keegan was available.
Backs
Player	+	-	T	Notes
McNamara	1	1	0	We stopped using him for fake reads mostly.
McCarthy	3	4	-1	Good run, two fumbles, one of them all on him.
Villari			DNP
Haskins	10.5	2	+8.5	He's no Kenneth Walker III but he charts like one.
Corum	6.5	8	-1.5	Killer fumble-4. Plus the drop. Easily the worst game of his career.
Edwards			DNP
Dunlap			DNP
TOTAL	21	15	+6	Michigan needed more from their backs.
Receivers
Player	+	-	T	Notes
C.Johnson	4	0	+4	Has taken Sainristil's mantle as best WR blocker (Bell not included).
Sainristil	1	2	-1	In fairness, MSU safeties are a handful, especially Henderson.
Henning	2	1	+1	+2 on the McCarthy run was so good I thought it was Sainristil.
Wilson			DNC	Still gingerly working back.
Baldwin		1	-1	Lost playing time to the freshman.
Anthony	4	0	+4	Best breakout by a WR#1 in a rival's house since Paul Goebel.
TOTAL	11	4	+7	I couldn't work in a reference to Harry Kipke. Nonetheless: #1.
Metrics
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Protection	55	75	73%	No sacks, excellent in context of situation/opponent.
RPS	16	33	-17	Barring a masterstroke gameplan that beats OSU,

I don’t understand that RPS number. Michigan put up 550 yards of offense and 33 points at 6.7 yards per play, and left a lot of meat on the bone.

I can defend this but it’s probably not as bad as the metric. Michigan State was selling out against the run in this game, and the run game is where a lot of the RPS action happens. We haven’t seen a team have this kind of success before at keying the power run games Michigan likes to use to attack the edge. Those are usually so successful because the kinds of dudes Michigan brings across the line have been excellent at either turning a crashing DE inside or kicking a set out outside. On this one Panasiuk got low and deep, and there wasn’t anywhere to turn or kick him. He’s just in the way.

Michigan’s running game can work around that sort of thing usually, but when you add Slade winning a block inside and a hyperaggressive linebacker shooting up to replace Panasiuk and taking out Schoonmaker, the only thing you can do is go down and think of a counter.

That happened a lot in the run game, and Michigan only punished it with four play-action pass plays (two using McCarthy), which left the Spartans able to wrack up a bunch of RPS+1s and +2s by stacking the boxes Michigan was running into.

I’m still working out some of the kinks in how I chart things, though, a one of my issues is I don’t tend to give out rock/paper/scissors positives as often for well-constructed passing plays, since the broadcast rarely shows enough to draw intelligent conclusions about play design. Pass events that get RPS’d are if the offense has too little or too much protection, broken coverages like the long late 3rd down corner route to Sainristil that Ben Mathis-Lilley captured yesterday…

…and occasionally when I am pretty sure the coverage call led to the outcome, e.g. Cover 3 versus a quick TE out.

Ian Boyd talked about one of the pass plays where I credited Michigan for gambling well. As they used to under Dantonio, MSU came into the game with six-man pressures that drop three guys deep and leave just two LBs for the intermediate level. That is not a smart thing to do against the Cade McNamara spread sets where he can spot your coverage before the snap and exploit the out-levered player. As long as the pressure is picked up, Michigan is going to have numbers somewhere, in this case with three receivers pressuring the edges of the “Hole” in the 5-15 yards down the middle that’s being covered by just two dudes.

Still, the bulk of those points go to the quarterback for making the reads and throws.

Also, if we’re talking about Michigan’s offensive coordinating, it kind of matters if the RPS was “they did something weird they shouldn’t” versus “we did something weird that made things easy.” Michigan State turned a crucial 4th and short into a deep pass and ultimately a touchdown when Michigan got caught mid-change on the next play. Michigan got nothing like that.

I guess I don't see how (a) the other team gambled a lot, (b) Michigan did not, and (c) Michigan was very successful, on a down-to-down situation and overall, results in (QED) Michigan got badly out-RPS'd.

The short answer is Michigan outplayed a lot of their coaches’ bad decisions. Let’s address these by point:

MSU’s gambles in the run game were on point, and paid off in a lot of unblocked defenders meeting Michigan’s backs in the backfield. Michigan’s were more in the nature of “I bet Hassan Haskins can break a cornerback’s tackle so let’s send All to get the next level blocked.” Those aren’t bad rolls—the cornerback gets a free attack but the Haskins build is all about brushing off those swings to cause havoc in the secondary.

Here’s a case example on a Counter Trey, which Michigan ran a lot this game but did not have a counter for. That got them in trouble once they got caught in a tendency of rolling the tight end in from a flex position then having him flow across the formation.

MSU is ready for it, slanting the line opposite the flow action to deliver many unblocked defenders to the point of attack. This is many:

A great block from All took out two of those guys, one got caught behind his buddy, and his buddy got run through by Haskins in a small gap. Credit for crushing blocks that remove a defender from the advantageous position he set up in, and for breaking tackles of unblocked defenders at the line of scrimmage, go to the players.

MSU also gambled by playing plus one in the box most of the day, where strong safety Xavier Henderson was a constant headache because the dude tackles as well as anybody in the conference. You add that guy to an extra linebacker who doesn’t get blocked because of the slant call, and that’s too much for anyone’s backs to escape.

Michigan’s gambles in return ranged between “Okay, that makes sense” and quickly roamed into Brady Hoke-level dumb. Gattis—and this at least I’m most sure is on him—tends to gets into a pattern of calling the same play twice in a row. This was most apparent on the ten-play drive at the start of the 2nd quarter. The sequence, with passing downs in parentheticals:

1. The 2015 Double-Iso play for 9 yards.
2. Run it again, Corum is met at the line, grinds it out to three.
3. Verts, check-down for 3.
4. (2nd & 7: Pass to Erick All for a chunk he mostly gets himself.)
5. Tackle Over split zone, Corum misses a bounce.
6. (2nd & 10: Pass to Haskins for a chunk he mostly gets himself.)
7. Tackle Over counter that hits the same spot as Dbl Split, gets 4.
8. Tackle Over F Fold, which is a counter to Split, ruined by MSU slanting at it, Corum fights for 2 extra.
9. F Fold from a normal formation, same reaction, stuffed.
10. 38-yard field goal on 4th and 2.

Two big passing down plays were most of the yards, except the first play that was clever the first time and the second play that was clever the first time, but Corum didn’t take advantage of it. Then they ran that four more times in a row, at the same spot, and MSU kept reacting the same way. This is why Michigan’s drives keep stalling out despite all the excellent pieces in the running game.

It reminds me most of when my kids were toddlers, were learning that this can cause that, but still hadn’t grasped the nature of that interaction. Press a new button, Elmo appears, and he sings a song about how you get 6 yards. So they press it again, but now nothing happens because Elmo has already popped. Press it again: still nothing, and something gets kicked.

Michigan’s offensive trust understands the concept that calling the good play will lead to yards, but not the why. I said last week I could live with this in a 33-7 game against Northwestern so long as they’re saving something vicious for Michigan State. They did not. Seven years after jettisoning Brady Hoke we’re back to the Black Adder sketch.

The repetitive play-calling wasn’t the only Borges-Hoke thing about it. Michigan’s big idea that they saved for the great rivals of East Lansing was literally the same tactic that gave us the 27 for 27 game: Tackle Over.

You can’t see from this distance but the top of the line of scrimmage has normal RT Andrew Stueber next to LT Ryan Hayes, and tight end Joel Honigford at right tackle. This play worked despite Barnhart (#52) getting blown up by MSU DT Jacob Slade, because their best three maulers—Hayes, Zinter, and Stueber—are all working downhill on the edge.

Hoke and Borges trotted that out against Minnesota in 2013 and ground down the field. It made some sense against MSU because they stay in their 4-2-5 personnel no matter who’s on the field or in what configuration, so going full beef should give them an advantage in matchups. It did, but just as Penn State adapted the week after Minnesota in 2013, Michigan State figured out the ball was going where the beef lined up, and sent more players to defeat it. There was no counter for it, but we kept mashing the button anyway expected a Muppet to pop loose.

There’s the same disconnect when we run tempo: I guess tempo is confusing, so let’s run it on 3rd and inches. Also let’s make that play "Can AJ Henning block a linebacker lined up inside of him?"

This led to a false start then a botched punt and MSU got the ball at midfield, a three-play sequence that was more than the final margin in expected points added, and it all began with the kind of thinking that we used to make fun of Hoke for:

Harbaugh used to have a play with Kaepernick where they’d line up in pistol, and if he got nobody over the center Kaep would move up under, hike, and sneak. Where’s that? Run that.

Michigan did have success through the air, with McNamara throwing on point to the guy with leverage against different coverages. I put most of that on McNamara—Michigan had 3.4 YPA on called runs or RPO runs in this game, and 8.9 YPA on called pass plays. They still ran 60% of the time on standard downs. The difference wasn’t a shift in play-calling so much as situation: They had 38 snaps in this game on passing downs or in clock situations. The quarterbacks produced 10.3 YPA on those.

And they did have open looks generated by play-action, though it was still rare. The one I’m thinking of in particular punished MSU for involving their cornerbacks in edge defense. Remember the one above where the CB came in and All ignored him? The counter to that was about to break Henning wide open behind that CB’s zone.

Slade broke through and the by time McNamara had moved around that to safety the cornerback was bailing hard to get back under Henning, which meant there was no long anybody trying to stop McNamara from running 20 yards down the sideline.

Anyway RPS was not the only problem in the running game, or even the biggest.

What was the biggest problem with the running game?

I think Jacob Slade is the best tackle they’ve faced all year. Even when the coaches drew something up that worked, it was close to not working because whichever lineman tasked with Slade was getting plopped in the backfield. Various guys handled that differently, and that accounts for the score differential in the chart. Vastardis gave up on moving him and concentrated on putting him to a side so the running back could get the hell away from him.

#68, the center versus #64 the 2nd DL from the top

Slade wasn’t the only guy causing problems. Vastardis picked up a very rare (for him) minus-3 for getting manhandled by the other starter at DT.

That dude’s a Willie Henry type who’s done that to a lot of opponents this year, but it’s another reminder that Vastardis has some limitations. That concern can wait a few weeks now that PSU is with out PJ Mustipher, but it has implications I do not like for The Game, and that’s not an easy spot to plan around. Vastardis came out even despite this, so he made it work.

Barnhart, on the other hand, was in deep water. He got more of Slade than anybody so I’m inclined to give him a little bit of a break. But there’s losing to Slade, and then there’s getting removed by Slade.

#52 the left guard

The heavy power stuff they clearly wanted to run with an extra tackle did not have much success, and when I went back to see why, I found Barnhart leaving his DT in the intended gap well before Vastardis could establish any kind of control.

#52 the left guard

Keegan was available but according to our reader who’s keeping track of snap counts, Keegan got up slow and that’s why Barnhart came back. Filiaga was apparently out with whatever ailment he played through last week. This was an unfair test for Barnhart, but the mental bits are likely to carry over if he’s needed again. Not many teams can be even that strong when they get down to their fourth guard, and he’s the same grade as McNamara so there’s plenty of runway left. I can still hope Michigan gets back #2 or #3 or both next week.

Well?

It was a good offensive performance, just not great enough to keep up with MSU and friends. A drive chart:

• 3-play, 98-yard TD drive
• 8-play, 78-yard TD drive
• 5-play, 54-yard TD drive
• 10-play, 55-yard FG drive that kicks on 4th and 2 from the MSU 20
• 9-play, 55-yard FG drive at the end of the half
• 6-play, 22-yard FG drive that started on the MSU 30 and kicks on 4th and 3 from the 8
• 12-play, 44-yard clock drive that got reffed on 4th and 3
• 9-play, 35-yard drive that got stuffed on 3rd and 1, false started, and botched the punt
• 7-play, 28-yard drive that dies on an MSU nickel blitz.
• 6-play, 20-yard drive dive that stalls when Corum drops a wide open swing pass that could have been points.
• A one-play drive fumbled away while leading 33-30 with 7 minutes left in the game and the starter is in the tent.
• Two-play last-ditch comeback attempt that’s a roughing the passer followed by an interception.

Every possession moved the ball except the fumble on at a crucial juncture. That was the thing, and it sucks that this is just such a thing under Harbaugh, is how many points they left on the board when you look at it. If you’re blaming the refs you’re looking at just one of many drives where they coulda. Coulda gone one 4th and short a couple times. Coulda kept it going with a QB sneak instead of getting fancy. Coulda caught the swing pass when they left mesh wide open. Coulda picked up the obviously blitzing nickel and gotten the ball to All. Coulda not fumbled. All of those are drives that died on Michigan mistakes. Drives that died on great MSU defensive plays: one. The last.

Extrapolating that to the future is difficult because MSU has done this to everybody. I’ve never seen a team collect so many mistakes from their opponents. They also made far fewer, and had plays they drew up during their bye week that turned into big swings on Saturday. Michigan did not have big plays drawn up that turned into huge swings. They got a few from their quarterback, which was new and exciting, and a bit untrustworthy when you disrespectfully look under the hood of MSU’s pass defense’s performance this year.

But the officiating…

The infamous atrocity occurred on the other side of the ball, so we can save further talk until then. The one worth bringing up here was the 4th down, obviously, because that was impossible to miss.

There isn’t the barest hint of doubt on that one, which means the official made a conscious decision to not call a 4th down pass interference in that game situation. That’s tough to swallow.

The only syrup I can offer is that it was supremely silly of McNamara to throw it at Johnson, whom he’s expecting to getting into contact, instead of the guy that the contact sprung open. If you’re mad that the officials decided the game here, also be mad at the equally bad decision to throw it in the direction of a guy your play is supposed to deliver into double-coverage. Also pick plays, even legal ones, are kind of cheap.

They also flagged Anthony for a ticky-tack tug on the end of Cornelius Johnson’s end-around, which turned a 1st and goal at the 5 into 1st and 13 at the 18 and led to a Michigan field goal. It was a hold, but it didn’t affect the play, and since it’s kind of a mutual understanding between the CB and WR, you never see it flagged. Fortuitously for Walker’s Heisman campaign, it wasn’t flagged again.

These things matter in a close game, but look above at the drive charts. Michigan had their chances to win going away.

Did Hassan Haskins hurdle a fool this week?

Indeed he did.

The official MGoBlog HASSAN HASKINS FOOLS HURDLED COUNTER (HHFHC) now stands at four.

1. Alohi Gilman, Notre Dame 2019.
2. Bricen Garner, WMU 2021.
3. Marquel Dismuke, Nebraska 2021.
4. Angelo Grose, MSU 2021.

Welcome Angelo, to the most prestigious of lists.

Heroes?

Cade McNamara, Andrel Anthony, Erick All, Hassan Haskins,

Maybe not so heroic?

Karsen Barnhart, Blake Corum (for him), J.J. McCarthy (fumbles baaaaaaad), Josh Gattis.

What does it mean for Indiana and beyond?

Cade McNamara can win you a game. His deep accuracy didn’t return, but dead on throws are dead on throws. Indiana’s blitzes from every which where are going to be a new challenge.

Hello Andrel Anthony. Make my hands red with your “I called it” fives on Saturday please.

Dropoff from Keegan/Filiaga was pretty bad. Not fair since either might have had a rough outing against Slade, but that was worse than rough for Barnhart. Second game in a row too which means a cyan’s coming.

Seth should cyan everybody. Another Cade take.

Erick All is the star we’re not celebrating enough. Maybe this game helped? Don’t know how much more he has to do.

Vastardis vs Ohio State tackles is not something I’m looking forward to. He has his limitations which he makes up for with his decisions, but the more talent he goes against the more those limitations are noticeable.

Michigan State is good. First time I’ve been able to really measure where they’ve come. Great DL and Xavier Henderson is a weapon. Still the best tackling team in the Big Ten, which I hope is a thing that goes away as the Dantonio people do.

It’s 70 degrees in Baton Rouge this week. Sounds nice.

Your Moment of Zen:

He calls his mother.