[Paul Sherman]

Upon Further Review 2021: Offense vs Maryland Comment Count

Seth November 23rd, 2021 at 2:52 PM

Label Notes: Reminder that I’m combining all scores (except QB) in the charting. p=pass pro, y=YAC, c=catch, b=block for RBs, and route=route. It might be more than one or an odd number, in which case the higher one goes first, so if you see something like “Wilson(+3croute) that means Wilson got a +2 for a difficult catch and +1 for running a good route.

Formation Notes: I’m going to call Stretch Zone just “Stretch” now. Maryland spent much of the day in a Ravens-style 5-2 then walked down a safety and left one high. As Alex predicted in FFFF, they often brought five and left one high, running mostly man defense.

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Substitution Notes: Filiaga got the start at LG but Keegan went most of the way. RB snaps were about 60/40 Haskins/Edwards before garbage time, with Hassan getting to rest early. More detailed snap counts are here.

[After THE JUMP: Looking past Maryland.]

Ln Dn Ds OForm DPack Front Hi Type Box Play Player Yards EPA
M19 1st 10 Pistol 2TE F Motion 5-2-4 5-2 Odd 1 Run 7.5 Split Zone Haskins 2 -0.26
UMD DE is crashing (RPS-1) and All(+1) can only arrest him. Filiaga(+1) has a LB but Vastardis(-2) gets two-gapped and shed by the NT for a stuff.
M21 2nd 8 Offset Ace 5-2-4 5-3 Odd 1 Run 8 ZR Counter GT Haskins 3 -0.23
McNamara(read+) reads a DE who is 100% playing a keep :/ RPS+1 I guess. Stueber(+1) blew down the other edge, Schoonmaker(+0.5) picks off the MLB, Filiaga(+1) turns the first guy who shows and there's going to be MANY yards on a bounce. Hayes(-2) leads inside Filiaga then hits the same guy, and Haskins(-2) inexplicably follows him.
M24 3rd 5 Gun Wk Y-Flex 4-2-5 Nk Wide 1 Pass 6.5 Slant Johnson Inc -0.27
PSU shows a six-man blitz and M checks into a slant by moving in both WRs then picks it up—RPS+1. McNamara stares it down but gets it to Johnson(-2c) who drops it as the CB arrives. (CA, 3, Prot 3/3, McNamara+1)
Drive Notes: Punt. 0-0. 13 min 1st Q. At least the plays are there?
Ln Dn Ds OForm DPack Front Hi Type Box Play Player Yards EPA
M30 1st 10 Pistol FB Heavy 5-2-4 5-3 Odd 1 Play-Action 8 PA Rollout Out Johnson 9 1.35
Schoonmaker (RPS+1) is wiiiide open but Cade doesn't pull the trigger. He rolls out a long time puts it low and away to Johnson(+2c). Jahan Dotson 2PC-style throw where the DB rakes out anything else. But also Schoonmaker is *So* open. Results-based charting but taking it out of his +/-. (DO, 1, Prot n/a, McNamara+0.5)
M39 2nd 1 Offset Twins 5-2-4 5-3 Odd 1 Run 8 ZR Counter GT Haskins 5 -0.03
Try it again but it's a clearly fake read by McNamara(-1, read-) and the DE doesn't stop. UMD has their DEs flaring this time to not get blocked down (RPS-1) but Honigford(+0.5) manages to mostly put his guy back inside. Filiaga(+1) gets a turn on the edge, but All(-1) lost the safety and turned around instead of leaving him for the puller. That guy sets a short edge and Haskins(+1) is momentarily stopped and backside guy arrives just in time to slam into the guy Honigford) handled. Hayes(+1) now starts riding the safety out and All puts a hat on the guy he should have gotten before, and we're back in business, except the backside finally gets free and takes this down after 5.
M44 1st 10 Empty 12 RB Orbit 5-2-4 5-1 Odd 1 Pass 6 Slant Johnson 7 0.67
BTN(+1) shows all the players! Except the FS who's so far back he's out of the picture. DB does his best but it's well-thrown and he has no help inside and Johnson(+1c) brings it in. (CA, 2, Prot 2/2, McNamara+1)
O49 2nd 3 Pistol Str 4-2-5 404 Tite 1 Run 6 Stretch Haskins 10 0.56
M shifts to a Pistol late. Filiaga(+0.5) gets around a DE who heads upfield and Vastardis(+1) locked and shouldered the other DT so Haskins(+1) cuts past a LB who overran a bit and passes the 1,000 mark on the year.
O39 1st 10 Offset FB Heavy 5-2-4 5-4 Odd 1 Play-Action 9 PA Comeback Selzer Inc -0.81
UMD brings five. Schoonmaker clears the first level and is alone vs a high safety (RPS+1) but again McNamara doesn't pull the trigger. Honigford(-1p) loses the backside DE and Cade has to roll out of there then chuck it to a covered Selzer who can't bring it in. (TA, 1, Prot 1/2, Honigford-1, McNamara-1)
O39 2nd 10 Offset Twins 5-2-4 5-2 Odd 1 RPO 7 Slant/Stretch Johnson 8 0.64
Bade read by McNamara(RPO-) on the WLB who drops into the slant. Now he has to improvise and finds Johnson(+1c) cutting off his slant and getting outside. Bad throw because of imminent pressure takes Johnson off his feet but good save. (MA, 2, Prot n/a, McNamara+1)
O31 3rd 2 Pistol Str 4-2-5 Nk Under 0 Run 8 Belly Haskins 2 0.53
No read (not even a fake one) on the backside end (RPS-1) gets that guy delivered unblocked into Haskins(+1) who has to redirect this inside where Hayes(-1) lost the DT. Schoonmaker(+0.5) kicked a safety to make room so HH can stretch for the first down. Players constantly bailing out their coaches in these situations. Refs+1 miss an illegal formation which they'll call later.
O29 1st 10 Gun Str 4-2-5 Nk Under 1 Pass 7 Fade Wilson Inc(+12) 0.21
UMD brings seven(!) and Michigan has a fade called (RPS+1). Haskins(-2p) doesn't check the LB before stepping out and Cade takes a rib shot. Can't tell if the pass is accurate because Wilson(+1route) roasted this S crispy and the dude has to grab around the waist as Wilson sells it. (Not charted, 0, Prot 2/4, Haskins-1)
O17 1st 10 Pistol Str 4-2-5 Nk Over 1 Run 7.5 Stretch Haskins 0 -0.34
Vastardis(+1) and Zinter(+1) combo through the frontside DT and Haskins(-1) should hit that hard but is reading the Stueber block and then Filiaga(-2) loses his aggressive LB, and HH has to take the D gap where Zinter was going to leave his LB. So there's your weak point in Stretch.
O17 2nd 10 Offset Trips 4-2-5 5-2 Odd 0 Pass 8.5 Slants Wilson Inc -0.40
Again UMD brings the house and it's 100% picked up: RPS+1. Wilson is open but Cade flings it off Filiaga's helmet. DB wisely realizes that means PI is off and takes Wilson down but there was a chance to make a highlight reel leap. (BA, 1, Prot 4/4, McNamara-1)
O17 3rd 10 Empty Trips RB Orbit 4-2-5 Nk Wide A 2 Pass 5 Mesh(Flare) Edwards 15 2.11
RPS+2 play as UMD brings the house and has nobody for the RB as they're blitzing both flat defenders on that side and the rest are going with mesh routes—a "Nick Cross moment" for you crossover Terps fans since he's the Cov2 high man who doesn't travel when the RB does and I know it's your struggle that this guy has so much talent but hasn't been coached a day in his life. Edwards would get a + if he scores but he just takes the space this provided. (CA, 3, Prot 1/1, McNamara+1)
O2 1st Goal Offset 11 Bone 4-2-5 Goal NA Play-Action NA PA TE Out Schoonmaker 2 1.16
Tempo(25) works (RPS+1) as UMD is looking for a dive and is crashing two guys, one of whom is harassing Cade as he cooly flips it home. (CA+, 3, Prot n/a, McNamara+1)
Drive Notes: Touchdown. 7-0. 7 min 1st Q. Terps getting GERG coaching.
Ln Dn Ds OForm DPack Front Hi Type Box Play Player Yards EPA
M33 1st 10 Gun Ace Demi 5-2-4 5-2 Odd 1 Pass 7.5 Mesh (Cross) Johnson Inc -0.96
Mesh catches zone which should be an okay gain but Johnson(-2c) drops it. (CA, 3, Prot 1/1, McNamara+1)
M33 2nd 10 Gun Trips Y-Flex 4-2-5 404 Tite 1 Pass 6 Angle Edwards 9 0.91
Protection bust as they don’t "MIKE" the Mike. Always Mike before you Hike guys. Cade rolls away from this guy and flings it to Edwards(+2cy) who picks it off his knees at 1 yard and runs for 8 more. (CA+, 2, Prot 0/1, McNamara+2, TEAM-1)
M42 3rd 1 Offset Bone 5-2-4 5-4 Odd 1 Run 9 Dive Haskins 4(-9) -1.01
Illegal formation because Wilson(-2) isn't on the LOS but didn't affect the play so I'll chart it because Zinter(+1) and Stueber(+1) cleared out a path for the easy conversion then Haskins(+0.5) fought for another 3. Comes back on the penalty.
M37 3rd 6 Gun Str Y-Demi 4-2-5 Nk Wide A 1 Pass 7 Angle Edwards Inc -0.49
Pure man, Edwards(+1route) sets his S up then gets separation inside so fast. Zinter(-1p) chases a stunt and is going to get run around so ball has to get out now but also should. Throw goes off a UMD guy's helmet. (BA, 0, Prot 1/2, Zinter-1, McNamara-1)
Drive Notes: Punt. 7-0. 5 min 1st Q. Michigan picked up a case of the Marylands; let's not do that next week please. Next drive starts on the Maryland 45.
Ln Dn Ds OForm DPack Front Hi Type Box Play Player Yards EPA
O45 1st 10 Gun Trips 4-2-5 Nk Split 1 Run 6 ZR Stretch Haskins 12 0.57
QB run threat holds 3 guys and gets an LB stepping inside Hayes(+1) who jumps downfield and locks him out. RPS+1, McCarthy(+1, read+). Also Keegan(+1) reached a DT who came inside of him. Zinter(-2) passes up a guy Stueber set up for him and Haskins(+1) runs around until ZZ comes back to at least lock him out. That wrecks Vastardis's angle on a LB but Stueber picks off that guy and Henning(+1) got a play-long block on the nickel that Haskins takes for a first down.
O33 1st 10 Empty Trips Y-Flex RB Flare 4-2-5 404 Tite 1 Pass 6 Flare Screen Edwards 1 -0.48
Edwards(-2) has a lane inside where he can try the nickel in space but instead he goes outside of a good kick by Schoonmaker(+1).
O32 2nd 9 Gun Trips Y-Flex 4-2-5 Nk Odd 1 Pass 6 Scramble McNamara 7 0.36
All day in the pocket vs a 4-man rush and McNamara(+1) finally takes off and gets close to the first. (SCR, n/a, Prot 3/3, McNamara+1)
O25 3rd 2 Offset Str 4-2-5 Okie 1 Run 7.5 Inside Zone Haskins 1 -0.56
Tempo(32) and I hate how much this probably works in practice against the 131st tempo team in the country but that's not Maryland. Zinter(-1, RPS-1) can't reach a DT lined up inside of him, though you still want Vastardis(-1) to help more than he did before releasing. Haskins can't bounce outside that because McNamara(-1, read-) is really fake reading the blitzing Nk as UMD has one CB for both WRs to this side and gets away with it. Somewhere Al Borges is defending this.
O24 4th 1 Offset 11 Bone 4-2-5 5-2 Odd 2 Run 7 Dive Haskins 2 0.94
Hayes(+0.5) and Keegan(+0.5) make a crease and M survives Henning vs an OLB on the edge. Haskins(+1) has it then fights for an extra before the pile is shoved back.
O22 1st 10 Offset Ace Twins 5-2-4 5-2 Under 1 Pass 8 Stop & Fade Anthony 18 0.96
Keegan(-1) is searching for an extra guy while Vastardis is one-arming a DT like "here here take him" and he doesn't take him. Anthony(+3c) makes a ludicrous grab. 1=1. (CA, 1, Prot 1/2, Mc+1, Keegan-1)
O4 1st Goal Offset Twins 5-2-4 5-4 Odd 0 Run 9 Inside Zone Haskins 3 -0.21
Fake read does get the S to freeze so McNamara(read+) but they don't really get anything out of it since they asked Honigford(+1) to get across the backside DE and he does. That means HH can burrow behind an ejection by Zinter(+1) who put this DT in the endzone with one shove. Unfortunately Stueber(-0.5) got moved backwards so there's a lane for a LB to leap in and separate Haskins(-3) from the ball. He luckily lands on it and recovers.
O1 2nd Goal Offset 2TE Twins (Y) 5-2-4 Goal NA Run 9 ZR F Insert Haskins 1 1.85
McNamara(+1, read+) gets the FS to stay put. Hayes(+1) plants a DE on the Crossland family sigil, Honigford(+0.5) and Keegan(+0.5) get good blocks too and Haskins can walk in.
Drive Notes: Touchdown. 14-0. 1 min 1st Q.
Ln Dn Ds OForm DPack Front Hi Type Box Play Player Yards EPA
M25 1st 10 Offset 2TE Twins (Y) 5-2-4 5-3 Odd 1 Run 8 Counter Trap Haskins 9 1.25
UMD hops their entire front left with the pull and Hayes(+1) manages to reach his backside DT. Michigan is running a new variant of their Counter where Stueber passes over the DE, who widens and gets kicked by Filiaga(+1). Still RPS-2 as that made Haye's job hard, and delivered two defenders to the new gap. All(+1) digs out one of them, then Zinter(+1) sees what's going on and drives his DT around. Haskins(+1) sneaks through and goes barreling into a DB near the first down.
M34 2nd 1 Offset Str 5-2-4 6-2 Odd 1 Run 8 Zone Read Haskins 8 0.26
FS in the parking lot. McNamara(read+) gets the edge to stay put. Zinter(+1) pried open an A gap and Haskins(+1) sets up a block for Filiaga by pressing behind him, and that gets Jennings to pop the guard then look around wondering if he could do signing day over again as Haskins hits the gap. About to be a monster gain but a DT just manages to trip him and he stumbles for 9 yards.
M42 1st 10 Gun Str 4-2-5 404 Tite 1 Pass 6.5 Out Baldwin 9 1.30
First couple of reads aren't there vs a zone blitz but Haskins(+1b) picked up a LB and escorted him out so Cade has time to come back to Baldwin between the DE who dropped and the Cov3 CB. (CA, 3, Prot 2/2, McNamara+1)
O49 2nd 1 Offset Trips 4-2-5 Nk Over 2 Run 7 Counter GZ Haskins 3 -0.28
Henning(+0.5) and he gets enough. Stueber(-2) gets spun through by a DT who blows it up in the backfield. Haskins(+1) carries him and a Katamari Damacy for another 3.
O46 1st 10 Offset Trips 4-2-5 Nk Even 1 RPO 8 TE Leak/IZ McNamara -3 -1.71
Bad read McNamara(RPO-) as the safety gap exchanges with the OLB who drifted away. That blitzing safety reroutes to sack on the rollout (RPS-1). Not charted as a pass since it's just a broken RPO.
O49 2nd 13 Gun Str Y-Demi 4-2-5 404 Tite 1 Pass 8 Drag Baldwin 3 -0.38
Anthony(-1route) took his hook route way too close. Three-man rush and here's Cade's game management as he dumps it off for a little instead of waiting around to see if something develops, but I don't see the WRs doing anything like that. (CA, 3, Prot 1/1, McNamara-1)
O46 3rd 10 Gun Trips Y-Flex 4-2-5 404 Tite 1 Run 6 Counter GT Haskins 6 0.27
So here's my dumb charting system's problem, because Cade sees M has numbers and checks into an RPS+2 run for many many yards, but McNamara(-1, read-) doesn't read a backside DE with zero point zero respect for a keep and shuffles all the way in. Hayes(+1) gets to the lone after depositing the DE with Keegan, Zinter(+1) pulverized the kickout and there's nobody left except the DE crashing around behind who gets in a shoestring tackle after 6 yards.
O40 4th 4 Gun Wk Y-Flex RB Orbit 4-2-5 5-2 Odd 1 Pass 7.5 TE Slant All Inc/2 -4.08
UMD's nickel isn't sure he should take Haskins (RPS+1) who is open for a long flare but Cade barely looks at that. Terp safety blitzes so Cade waits for that guy to clear then throws a slant to All, who's covered but bodying his guy and you hope your TE can catch this. It goes off his hands and Henning circus catches it, but short of the 1st down.
Drive Notes: Turnover on Downs. 14-3. 5 min 2nd Q. Michigan gets the ball back right here after the blocked punt.
Ln Dn Ds OForm DPack Front Hi Type Box Play Player Yards EPA
O42 1st 10 Offset Wk Y-Flex Stack 4-2-5 404 Tite 2 RPO 6 Flash Screen/CounterGT Wilson 0 -0.91
Either side of the read is fine but McCarthy(RPO+) makes a correct toss out to Wilson(-1) who tries to go outside of an iffy block by Schoonmaker(-1) and gets dropped. (CA(screen), 3, Prot n/a)
O42 2nd 10 Gun Str Y-Flex 4-2-5 Nk Under 2 RPO 6 QB Draw/Flare Screen McCarthy 14 1.44
McCarthy(+2, RPO+) reads Jennings who dashes out with the RB, then takes off, dodging a blitzing safety (RPS-1, jetting past a DT who controlled Keegan(-1) and flowed, and shake-n-bakes the HSP for some extra behind a play-long block by Johnson(+1)
O28 1st 10 Offset Str 4-2-5 404 Tite 1 Play-Action 6 PA Deep Hitch Johnson 15 0.23
Ball goes fast to Johnson(+1) who catches it off his facemask at 80 mph but then has time to burl forward for another 4 because the ball got there so fast. (CA, 3, Prot 1/1, McCarthy+1)
O13 1st 10 Offset Trips 4-2-5 Nk Over 0 Pass 8 Fade Sainristil 13 2.49
UMD brings 7, Keegan(-1p) got swum through, ball goes up but it's deep instead of out. Sainristil(+3c) makes a crazy one-handed stab. (CA, 1, Prot 3/4, Keegan-1)
Drive Notes: Touchdown. 21-3. 3 min 2nd Q. Michigan gets the ball back with a minute and a half.
Ln Dn Ds OForm DPack Front Hi Type Box Play Player Yards EPA
M37 1st 10 Gun Trips 4-2-5 Nk Split 1 Pass 7.5 RB Flat Edwards 4 -0.16
1:39, 1 timeout. Quick out vs Cov 2 gets a little. (CA, 3, Prot 1/1)
M41 2nd 6 Offset Str Y-Flex 4-2-5 Nk Even 1 Pass 6.5 RB Flat Edwards 5 0.30
1:35, 1 TO. Same play, this time the CB works to get him inbounds. Edwards nearly makes an athletic play to stay up but his elbow's down. By the way these are first reads going for what the defense is giving so I'm not giving +s for the QB on them. (CA, 3, Prot 1/1)
M48 3rd 1 Offset Str 4-2-5 Nk Over 1 Run 6 F Fold Edwards 2(-12) -1.76
1:20, 1 TO. Fake read is ignored but the point is just to create space for Hayes(+1) and All to combo through the DE to the HSP. Keegan(-2) just has to lock out the NT but gets put in the backfield and two-gapped. Edwards(-1) can still get the first down if he takes the other side of Keegan but bounces it, which turns All(-1)'s hold into a hold that gets flagged.
M38 3rd 9 Gun Trips Y-Flex 4-2-5 404 Tite 1 Pass 6.5 Improv Sit Baldwin 13 2.91
1:14, 1 TO. UMD brings 3 and Cade sits in the pocket all day. All day! Finally he rolls a bit and directs Baldwin(+1route) to a hole in the zone where they convert. (DO, 3, Prot 3/3, McNamara+2)
O49 1st 10 Gun Wk 4-2-5 404 Tite 2 Pass 6 Throwaway Haskins Inc -1.10
1:01, 1 TO. First read is Schoonmaker at the sideline but CB is playing that. Doesn't like the midrange route over that, doesn't like the deep route on the other side, and checks down to the RB dumpoff throwing it upfield as Stueber(-1) finally loses the edge at 10 yards. If he stepped up or broke the pocket and came back to Schoonmaker they get 7 yards and OOB. I'm going to assume since this is thrown upfield that it's meant to be not caught but Haskins nearly turns around and catches it behind the LOS. Results-based but man, that would have been situationally bad. (TA, n/a, Prot 2/3, Stueber-1)
O49 2nd 10 Empty Trips 3-2-6 326 Dime 2 Pass 5 TE Curl Schoonmaker 9 1.06
0:54, 1 TO. Three-man rush again and this time Cade doesn't want to wait after he sees Schoonmaker in a spot where All usually YACs the first down. Throw is where it needs to be, Schoonmaker comes up a half a yard short. (CA, 3, Prot 0/0, McNamara+1)
O40 3rd 1 Ace Bone 3-2-6 326 Split 2 Run 5 QB Sneak McNamara 4 0.79
0:41, 1 TO. They line up and get it with no resistance. RPS+1.
O36 1st 10 Gun Wk 4-2-5 404 Tite 1 Pass 6 RB Dumpoff Edwards 9 0.77
0:33, 1 TO. First couple of reads open, Stueber(-1) is losing his DE inside. Wheel to Schoonmaker is coming open for a TD, but Cade dumps it to Edwards(+1y) who gets the 1st down. Harbaugh(Madden-3) doesn't realize this and unnecessarily burns his timeout. Refs use the opportunity to review the play and rule him down half a yard short. Harbaugh doesn't get his timeout back.
O27 2nd 1 Gun Trips 4-2-5 4-4 Tite 2 Pass 6.5 Angle Edwards 18 -0.18
0:23, 0 TO. Three-man rush, has Schoonmaker for a TD again as his S fell down but read 1 is this angle to Edwards(+1y) and so perfectly thrown that the RB can run down the seam. (DO, 3, Prot 0/0, McNamara+2)
O9 1st Goal Spike 4-2-5 Nk Over 2 Spike 6 Spike TEAM Inc -0.32
0:17, 0 TO. Spike.
O9 2nd Goal Offset Trips Z Wide 4-2-5 Nk Under 1 Pass 7.5 RB Flat Edwards 3 -0.08
0:16, 0 TO. RPS+1 as they blitz the CB and MLB has no chance to get to Edwards if he's given any kind of room. Cade backs up instead of pulling the trigger and the throw carries Edwards OOB after just 3. (TA, 3, Prot 1/2, TEAM-1, McNamara-1)
O6 3rd Goal Offset Str 4-2-5 Okie 0 Pass 9 Fade Wilson 6(-21) -2.57
0:13, 0 TO. Perfectly thrown fade to Wilson(+2c/route) who beat the corner and high-points it for the touchdown. Comes back because Schoonmaker(-3) reached in to put a hand on the LB Haskins is cutting, drawing a terrible chop block penalty. See this not get called often but it's certainly a correct call. (DO, 2, Prot 1/1, McNamara+2)
Drive Notes: FG(39). 24-3. EoH. Moody actually missed at first but Locksley used his timeout to negate that and Moody makes the second. Thanks Mike!
Ln Dn Ds OForm DPack Front Hi Type Box Play Player Yards EPA
M44 1st 10 Offset Wk Tight Z Orbit 4-2-5 4-4 Tite 1 Pass 8 Flare Screen Henning 9 1.26
Johnson(+1) gets a good block at the PoA and Henning(-3) gets to the LOS with the safety at 8 yards (RPS+1). That guy gets his legs and Haskins's guy sticks his hand in to pop the ball loose. It was a lucky swing to jar it loose and luckier still that it falls where Haskins can jump; on it. (CA(screen), 3, Prot n/a)
O47 2nd 1 Offset 2TE Twins (Y) 5-2-4 5-2 Odd 1 Run 7.5 Inside Zone Haskins 4 -0.24
Fake read by McNamara(read-) gets a free crashing DE. Keegan(+1) gets pushed back but gets inside of his DT and this also fortuitously gets in the way of the DE's crash. Zinter(+1) put his DT in Vastardis(-1)'s lap but Vas is trying to get to the same LB and loses the DT inside. Scoon(+1) got down and hopped around the WLB to cut off their free hitter. Vastardis's DT and the crasher combine to grab HH's legs but he's falling forward for 4.
O43 1st 10 Offset Twins 5-2-4 404 Tite 1 Run 7 Counter Trap Haskins 4 -0.11
Trap is meant for a slant but bites them (RPS-1) as UMD plays it straight, meaning Hayes releases into nobody. Zinter(+1) got a good kick on the DE but the MLB sets up well on the hash and All can't give HH enough room as Filiaga(-1) left the DT with Vastardis before getting him off the hash. That DT pays with a leg injury for standing up to it. Haskins(+0.5) hops through the DT's tackle but is off balance.
O39 2nd 6 Gun Str 4-2-5 Nk Split 2 Pass 6.5 TE Hitch All 5 0.09
Good pocket but miscommunication as All(route-) turns right on his option route when the sight read is this hitch that Cade throws. All catches it but it takes away a YAC opportunity. (CA, 3, Prot 1/1, McNamara+1)
O34 3rd 1 Offset Bone 4-2-5 Nk Split B 1 Run 7 F Fold Edwards 4 0.55
Tempo(31). BTN is cutting away to Illinois-Iowa so we only see a tiny bit of this play. Filiaga(+1) and Hayes(+1) combo through the DE and Edwards takes it for an easy 1st down.
O30 1st 10 Offset 2TE Twins (Y) 5-2-4 5-3 Odd 1 Play-Action 8 PA Fade Wilson 25 0.93
M has just one route as they play rock/paper/scissors on play-action and RPS+2 win it. They would win it more of Cade gave better than extremely token play-action fakery, which might have made this a TD. Throw is right on Wilson(+2croute) who doesn't have much space so he opts to catch it falling down instead of trying to grab it on the run and risking a breakup attempt. Charted well, a point off Cade in the scoring. (DO, 2, Prot n/a, McNamara+1)
O5 1st Goal Offset Twins 5-2-4 5-4 Odd 0 Run 9 Zone Read Haskins 2 -0.33
Tempo(24). Fake read McNamara(read+) does hold a safety backside. UMD is running a Rutgers Stunt 43 and Zinter(+1) snuffs it out, redirecting to the OLB as Vastardis(+1) locks the DT inside, but also forces Filiaga(RPS-1) to make a reach block on the nose. He doesn't get around and Haskins gets tripped before he can get to the MLB.
O3 2nd Goal Haskinscat Heavy 5-3-3 Goal NA Run NA Inside Zone Haskins 0 -0.41
Lol. Michigan lines up 10 guys on the LOS and Cade motions out of the box as they direct snap to Haskins(-2) who has ten gaps to choose from. He should see that he has 4 defenders to the right of his center and 7 to the left but it wouldn't be a Michigan short yardage play if we didn't find some way to punch ourselves in the dick then argue online with people who say dick-punching is right and good. Filiaga(-1) gets driven back and now HH has a chance to bounce right to where there aren't all these extra defenders, but just runs into Filiaga's back and lets the free unblocked safety arrest his momentum. Harbaugh and Matt Weiss have a grinny exchange on the sideline after which I interpret as "That was dumb"/"No it wasn't--he just had to run right!" Here's where I stand: RPS+1 and next time do it out of TRAIN.
O3 3rd Goal Ace Offset 3TE 5-3-3 Goal NA Pass NA PA Seam Schoonmaker INT(+2) 1.69
The 2011 setup where they motion the RB wide out of I-Form. UMD CB doesn't let go of Schoonmaker as the safety undercuts it. Flag thrown, but RPS-2 this safety had it read and no time to check down to Honigford because they're not blocking the edge. Charitably... (Not charted, 0, Prot n/a)
O1 1st Goal I-form Heavy 5-3-3 Goal NA Run NA Lead Down G Haskins 1 0.89
Zinter(+1) removes the edge with his kickout but a safety gets under All(-1) who jumped too high. Haskins(+1) keeps churning and Vastardis(+1) comes off his block to push his buddy over the goal line.
Drive Notes: Touchdown. 31-3. 8 min 3rd Q. UMD scores twice with the throwback kick return—Barrett (DO, 3, Prot n/a)—sandwiched in the middle.
Ln Dn Ds OForm DPack Front Hi Type Box Play Player Yards EPA
M21 1st 10 Offset Wk Stack H Jet 4-2-5 404 Tite 2 RPO 7 Counter GT Trap/Flare Screen Edwards 2 -0.29
McNamara(-1, RPO-) as Michigan catches UMD in a late change and shifts the TE to the other side. HSP doesn't notice, nor do the safeties react to Henning's motion, meaning he's one on one with a high safety if they get it to him. Instead they're running into an accidentally overstacked box. Keegan(+1) gets a good kick on a DT who's braced for him, Vastardis(-1) got beat back to constrict the hole however and then the extra two guys come into play.
M23 2nd 8 Offset Trips 4-2-5 404 Tite 1 Pass 7 Slant Baldwin 3(Inc) -0.48
Blitzing HSP so Cade guns his outlet pass low. Baldwin(+1) actually caught it but they rule it incomplete and nobody's challenging a 3-yard pass today. You get your 2 in my charting Daylen! (IN, 2, Prot 0/1, TEAM-1, McNamara-1)
M23 3rd 8 Gun Trips Y-Flex 4-2-5 Nk Split A 1 Pass 6.5 RB Wheel Edwards 77 7.05
Five-man pressure picked up and leaves the WLB in m2m through traffic (RPS+2) with Edwards(+2y) who dusts this guy by so much he can set up and blow by a couple of safeties. Perfect throw helps too. (DO, 3, Prot 2/2, McNamara+1)
Drive Notes: Touchdown. 45-18. 1 min 3rd Q. Tagovailoa throws a pick six in the interim so we come back up 52-18 with the backups in. Sickos want two more drives though so here you go.
Ln Dn Ds OForm DPack Front Hi Type Box Play Player Yards EPA
O34 1st 10 Pistol FB Twins 5-2-4 5-3 Odd 1 Play-Action 8 PA Improv Durham Edwards 29 1.05
Durham is an NCAA 2014 money play that runs a wheel under a wheel fyi, but they make this up as Filiaga(-1) loses control of his DT and JJ is a beat late to throw the TE wheel they didn't have covered (RPS+1). Edwards(+1route) releases and finds space under that as JJ escapes with an assist from Atteberry(+1) who got blindside and put up his hands to avoid a call. Advanced play, my dude! Throw is right where it needs to be so the RB can keep his momentum down the sideline, where All(+1) pancakes the HSP who came after him to add another 10 yards to what's already a good chunk. (DO, 3, Prot 1/2, Filiaga-2, McCarthy+2)
O5 1st Goal Offset Trips 4-2-5 Nk Over 1 Run 6 Denard McCarthy 5 1.83
Speaking of plays from the Robinson era... McCarthy(+3) drops the snap which negates whatever they called (a dive?) then starts running to the field. One Terp dives at his feet. Then another. Then Wilson(+1) escorts a third inside. Then a fourth demonstrates perfect Terp tackling technique, which is to just stand there and bang into a guy with your shoulder instead of using your arms. JJ bounces off that and falls butt-first into the endzone as high school coaches across the nation immediately pull out their phones and block every College Park area code in it.
Drive Notes: Touchdown. 59-18. 13 min 4th Q. End of charting.

I don’t remember half of this occurring.

Ah yes, Maryland Football Amnesia Syndrome. Where games against Maryland are so forgettable that even right after a Maryland game you have trouble recalling events from the Maryland game. Most doctors think it gets worse the later in the season you play Maryland, and on the road between a road win at Penn State and The Game it’s almost impossible not to get it.

I also don’t remember feeling anything like the final score.

Yeah, this wasn’t a game where the Wolverine offense took it to opposition so much as the opposition kept running ass when they’re supposed to be playing hole-in-the-ground. Pause this yourself when you believe #3, the safety at the bottom on the 10 yard line, realizes he was supposed to do something about the running back’s motion.

The Terrapins left running backs wide open, fell down, ran into each other, didn’t rotate their safeties on pre-snap motion, and generally punched themselves in the face so often that I had to keep consciously crediting McNamara for throwing to his open first read when the third read was about to be completely alone down the sideline. Maryland’s defensive issues are so manifest they made Michigan fans feel largely empathetic on the first day of something called “Hate Week.”

image

You shouldn’t be in my conference but I don’t care. You deserve linebacker coaching and a coverage that lasts more than 0.47 seconds.
[Tortoise and Dino #39 – the divide (part ix), by
Dinos And Comics]

Michigan couldn’t avoid acting a little like the Marylanders. Schoonmaker erased a touchdown by putting his hands on a guy Haskins was about to submarine, the football equivalent of running over the dribbler 80 feet from the basket. It cost 4 points. The rest of their errors went unpunished. The Wolverines recovered both of their fumbles, and Maryland wiped out a safety’s interception in the endzone with some probably unnecessary pass interference by their cornerback. A turnover on downs wound up not costing anything because the defense held, then special teams blocked the punt and put the ball right back where the offense had left it. Early drives that stalled out trying to be too clever were made up for by a kickoff return touchdown and a pick-six replaced two drives in the 3rd quarter to put the blowout back on schedule.

Needless to say, they can’t afford those mistakes this weekend.

Speaking of swing plays, has this offense figured out how to get 1 or 2 yards with a good OL and Hassan Haskins yet?

They had a lot of opportunities. I charted ten short down situations, defined as 3rd or 4th down and 2 or less or any play inside the 2 yard line, and they converted on seven of them.

  • Things that worked: A play-action flip to the TE, two dives, two Isos, a QB sneak, a Down G lead, and one inside zone.
  • Things that didn’t work: Belly, the other inside zone, and one of the Isos where Edwards left his blocking.

Well ma’am, there’s your problem. I’ll add that the inside zone run that worked only did so because Haskins bailed them out. I want you to watch #76 Ryan Hayes at left tackle (top guy on the line of scrimmage):

Once again Michigan’s risking their success on short yardage on whether Hayes can get across that DE’s face and create a gap. Even if Hayes succeeds odds are they get what they got here, which is no room to run in that gap, and Haskins cutting back into the unblocked guy who didn’t respect a keep read from McNamara plus the spot the DE. Haskins managed to fight through two tacklers to convert (and the refs ignored an immaterial illegal formation they would get right later) but you shouldn’t be putting this kind of thing on “Star must make a star’s play.” Running through one tackle, okay, but if he’s got to beat two defenders with a free shot the coordinating has to get fixed.

The zone they didn’t convert was your standard Harbaugh/Gattis “Let’s set a down on fire” play:

 

 

If you put this play in front of an OL coach he’ll probably tell you that Vastardis needs to get a better pop on that DT and Zinter’s footwork wasn’t going to be good enough to reach that DT. My thing here is they would have to be perfect because of how that DT is lined up, and they have no access to the gap that would create behind the DT because they don’t read the edge defender. I have no wish to go another 20 rounds online with Al Borges and the internet contrarians who want to put this kind of play on “execution.” If you’re going to leave that edge defender unblocked you need a run threat option who’s going to keep him from taking away the gap behind Stueber. It’s been a problem since the Army game that defensive lines can overplay the frontside and take away multiple gaps on the backside because Michigan doesn’t QB keep. Block the guy or use someone who can read him.

I offered the Haskinscat—or a Barrettcat if you prefer—as a solution because that adds a second back that the defense has to account for and evens out the numbers. Michigan did try a direct snap to Haskins and I RPS+1’d it even though it failed.

 

They’re not adding a backfield threat here but they are using the QB to even out the numbers by making him a receiver. Where Michigan used the extra player here was to create an extra gap. Let’s check in on the numbers game, circling hats to the left of the center in red and to his right in green:

image

Once the QB pulls a CB out the defense has five guys to either side. Michigan has nine guys on the line and one Haskins who gets to choose which side to go to. His job should be to press the LB on the left to stay there, then cut right where his teammates have a hat for every hat, choosing from a wide selection of gaps. He chose wrong, but I like the idea. Work on it and come back.

Michigan also tried the unlawful, horrific, cheating, no-good scummy method of achieving a first down in a short down: Passing the ball.

I’m sure this was just so Ohio State would see we’re willing to go there, and Michigan won’t stoop so low again.

What was going on with the rest of the running game?

The short version is after pummeling Penn State outside with their Counter Trey base, Michigan came prepared to run it inside to counter whatever Maryland prepared to not have their ends turned like the Nits’ were. That became running their Counter play on ore two gaps further in, kicking the DE or even a DT like so:

This “Counter Trap” play popped up a lot, though it never got very far. The key difference was instead of blocking down on the edge with their tackles, Michigan flared those guys into space and kicked out the edge. Watch LT Ryan Hayes at the bottom of the formation.

You’ll note he ended up with nobody to block there. This wasn’t a great running play for punishing Maryland’s defense, since the Terps did not in fact pick up on Michigan’s tendency or have a good plan for defending what happened to Penn State. I don’t think that’s a big deal—Michigan was putting it on tape to turn off the slants they’ve been getting

Michigan did take their power game outside early but Haskins and Hayes missed the gap:

Once Filiaga (#66) has that edge turned, everybody else should be going outside. This was the beginning of a (by his standards) dismal day for Haskins, who seemed to be doing a little too much pre-snap decision-making about which gap to attack instead of letting the game come to him like usual. Given the body of work he’s already put out there, it was probably a one-off.

 

He did crest 1,000 on the season by hitting the back cut on a stretch zone:

…and bailed his coaches out of another short down zone call that asked a guy to block someone playside of him, but for the first time in my Haskins charting the mistakes caught up to the good. Half of the bad was a –3 I give out for fumbling and going to the wrong side on the Haskinscat play. Don’t fumble on the goal line or run into the stacked side of a many-gaps play, guy who doesn’t usually do that.

Anyways, Maryland was not the right team to hammer away at, because their front five are run-stoppers foremost, or only, while their linebackers are young, not fast, and highly confused. I know Corum must have been dying to take advantage of that in front of his hometown crowd. On the other hand, it was even more perfect conditions for their understudy’s breakout.

Unwrap Donovan Edwards!

Ho ho ho was it ever Christmas for the running back I called “Reggie Bush but Human” in his recruiting profile last summer. Maryland runs an extremist version of Don Brown defense where they’re bringing five most downs and telling you which five, which often leaves just one LB or safety to deal with the RB in man coverage. That works if you get RB-like LBs—you recall all the Bush-likes Brown recruited here. When your linebackers are a problem however, having them do something hard is asking for it. Donovan Edwards takes that from hard to Not Happening.

This time I want you to key in on the top linebacker, the guy just inside the hash mark in front of the referee. Got him? Hit play, and try to empathize with the panic he must be feeling as Edwards is slipping away.

Vegas odds that he passed our game thread in curse words in the span of this clip: 2 to 1. Likelihood that he’ll be part of the Ohio State gameplan? Pretty high, I hope. Their linebackers are still their weakest link, and Edwards is a weapon built just for them. I don’t expect him to keep leading the team in receiving, but because of the matchups he should get, he’ll be among the leaders.

Speaking of receivers, Harbaugh was asked about Ohio State’s Big Three and just talked about his own.

This was, without a doubt, one of the best games all year from the receivers as a group. Usually we get an individual having a day and maybe another guy quietly doing good things. I think everybody got involved this time, starting with the pair of 1’s. Mike “Sweetness” Sainristil’s was slightly better because it was a worse throw, IMO:

And you can’t have one without the other like this by Andrel Anthony:

I don’t know though. If Sainristil’s was cooler on the catch, Anthony’s doing it against better coverage, but Sainristil ran a crisper route to throw his coverage off the scent…oh I don’t know You choose. I am just here loving this receiving corps that Gattis has put together. Catchychart:

  THIS WEEK   THIS YEAR
Player Uncb Circus Tough Routine   Uncb Circus Tough Routine
Johnson     3/3 1/3 14 2/12 11/14 21/24
Baldwin     1/1 3/3 4 0/6 7/9 8/10
Sainristil   1/1     3 3/9 4/5 12/12
Henning   1/1   1/1 3 1/2 1/2 3/3
Wilson 1 0/1 2/2 1/1 3 2/4 5/6 14/15
Anthony   1/1     3 3/7 2/2 5/5
Dixon         1 0/1   1/1
x Bell x           1/2 1/1  
All     0/1 1/1 2 0/3 5/7 24/24
Schoonmaker 1     2/2 4 0/4 1/1 12/12
Honigford         2   0/1 1/1
Selzer   0/1       0/2 0/1  
Hibner                
Corum         2 1/1 1/1 18/21
Haskins         1   2/2 8/8
Edwards 1   1/1 9/9 2 0/1 1/1 10/10

Routes: Wilson+3, Edwards+2, Baldwin+1, Anthony-1, All-1

Sometimes that “route+” was given for running so fast that the defensive back didn’t have a chance. Roman Wilson had a few of those, but as far as I’m concerned they count. Cornelius Johnson’s two drops (and All’s more difficult one) were all that marred a very good day, and in Johnson’s case he made a string of tough catches afterwards to come out positive.

That’s right you include receiving points in the points chart.

And pass pro minuses, which changes how the offensive line comes out a bit.

Chart.

Chart, please.

Pleasing chart please.

Okay but note this is on a lot fewer snaps than normal. The starters had at most 64 snaps in this one, Filiaga/Keegan had 29 and 42 respectively, and Schoonmaker (40 snaps) was in more often than All (30), who’s still nursing an ankle.

Offensive Line
Player + - T Notes
Hayes 7.5 3 +4.5 Quietly good bounceback, no protection problems.
Keegan 4 5 -1 Dunno why Filiaga started but not his usually good game.
Vastardis 4 5 -1 Walk-on makes good archetype.
Filiaga 5.5 5 +0.5 Mashed face, ain't built for stretch zone.
Stueber 2 4.5 -2.5 A couple of pass pro issues vs a 404 Tite wide 9 type.
Zinter 10 4 +6 ZINTER SMASH!
Barnhart     0 DNC
Jones     0 DNC
Atteberry 1 0 +1 Knows how to blindside already.
Crippen     0 DNC
All 3 3 0 Gingerly working back, some of his issues might have been RPS.
Schoonmaker 2 4 -2 Is no All or Hongiford but something in between. Also very open.
Honigford 2 1 +1 Still an extra OT who lost 50 pounds.
Selzer     0 DNC
Hibner     0 DNC
TOTAL 41 34.5 +6.5 Zinter moved people, everyone else slept.
Backs
Player + - T Notes
McNamara 2 4 -2 Angry Tom Hanks you're still not hitting the cutoff man dot gif.
McCarthy 6 0 +6 Brian called that play "Wonder and Glory" in the 2009 UFR.
Villari 0 0 0 DNC
Haskins 11 10 +1 Fumble only 30% of a disappointing day.
Corum 0 0 0 DNP.
Edwards 8 3 +5 WRs: This should be part of our score. LBs: Hard agree!
Dunlap     0 DNP.
TOTAL 27 17 +8 For the first time all season it wasn't Haskins/Corum carrying them.
Receivers
Player + - T Notes
Johnson 7 4 +3 Dropped it...THEN TOTALLY REDEEMED YOURSELF!
Sainristil 3 0 +3 Not sure, gonna have to watch that catch 12 more times.
Henning 1.5 3 -1.5 Fumbled.
Wilson 6 3 +3 Matchup nightmare for not fast CBs.
Baldwin 2 0 +2 I saw you caught that even if nobody else did.
Anthony 3 1 +2 That future oh man oh man oh man.
TOTAL 22.5 11 +10.5 A lot of little good days add up to a quite a good day.
Metrics
Player + - T Notes
Protection 43 53 81% Zinter-1, Keegan-1, Honigford-1, Haskins-1, TEAM-1
RPS 22 12 +10 When I left you I was but a learner now *I* am the master.

Those are low amplitude; are you not Seth?

I realized recently that part of the reason for the high-amplitude scoring was I’ve just had a lot more snaps to chart than Brian usually has to. I was in the 90s for Nebraska, Northwestern, and MSU; Brian capped the 90-play mark just three times since 2008 (twice in 2009 and the Rutgers game last year). A side effect of Michigan’s opponents running tempo or getting booted of the field in close games is that this Michigan team just runs a lot more plays than they used to, and that’s amplified the scores. This game I stopped charting at 65 plays, my shortest yet, and the last drive didn’t even have the starting OL on the field.

Oooh you’re going to be in trouuuble with the message board for that RPS number.

It was more than two to one in Gattis’s favor before the game got out of hand; what’s the problem?

I don’t know, shoulda been higher. Or lower because you hate Cade. They’re mad though. I can feel it in the air.

Well they have some cause this week because the way the charting system was handed down to me uses RPS to mean “players put in an advantageous position” and dishes out minuses to players for fake reads that opponents know are fake. It’s been a known issue. Brian’s ad-hoc charting system was developed over several coaching staffs. It makes presuppositions like “if a quarterback is optioning a guy the QB must have some kind of keep option.”

It’s impossible to tell, unless the QB isn’t even looking at the unblocked defender, if a read is hot or not, so I have to assume if he’s looking at a guy it’s hot. Clearly it isn’t always. That’s a bother on this play because the quarterback made a good pre-snap check that goes into the RPS bucket, and then made a bad (no) post-snap read that earned the QB a negative.

I can’t say this with any certainty, but it seems most likely it’s the other way around: Cade made the good check into an RPS+ play with a backside read, and his coaches are telling him he can’t keep it on that read. Not that he wants to—the whole point of this check is there’s oodles of running room if the end doesn’t shuffle across the line of scrimmage to take Haskins down before he gets to explore all that green grass.

I’ve dealt with it with results-based charting. If the free crasher affects the play, it gets a bad read grade; if he doesn’t get there I still mark the read but ignore it in the grading, since it didn’t end up mattering.

This all leads back to the main issue of having a no-run quarterback in 2021. The options that leaves you are:

  1. Run with him a little anyways just so the defense won’t disrespect his reads completely.
  2. Don’t run zone reads.
  3. Burn a few downs per game in the hopes that the other team lets you get away with it sometimes.

Michigan does get away with it sometimes: Cade was 5/9 on reads I charted in this game because some guy with edge responsibility stayed out there when he got stared down. Usually this was a safety near the goal line, and the defense could afford to spend that guy protecting from a walk-in touchdown since chances are if he chased the RB out the other way he’d just get dragged into the endzone anyways. If they make those reads hot and take a few chunks from Ohio State on Saturday, burning all those downs along the way will have been worth it. I’m not hopeful.

I am hopeful, however, that once McCarthy has the insane freshman stuff under control he’s going to open up all kinds of lanes for the running backs. Check out the defense’s reaction when it’s JJ making the zone read:

That’s all kinds of guys hanging backside, and all kinds of space to run in for Haskins. Sam Webb has been banging the table to get McCarthy more snaps in the red zone so they can use the fear he strikes into the backside.

It’s also very like these coaches to save RPO “frippery” for the backup. They only had a few run-screen options for McNamara in this game, and like the zone reads, I couldn’t tell sometimes if the read was even hot:

This is a huge error by Maryland, who brings on a hybrid LB late and that guy doesn’t notice the tight end shifted sides or the slot receiver went in motion. All that space is Hennings’s to explore if McNamara registers that the guy he’s supposed to read is so gone he’s literally on the other side. I guess you could chalk that up to Maryland being so bad that they defy RPO logic. It’s also a sign that this is not where Michigan puts its practice time with the starting QB.

This is Cade McNamara slander after one of his best games. I’ll not hear it.

The run game reads are an issue for the running game, but it’s not like that’s what McNamara’s here to do. Once again he smoothly and safely piloted an increasingly dangerous passing offense against one of the worst secondaries in the league, minus two more passes that went off his linesmen’s helmets. A chart:

CADE MCNAMARA

  Good   Neutral   Bad   Ovr   Reads
Game DO CA SCR   PR MA   BA TA IN BR   DSR GRADE!   RPOs ZRs
W. Michigan 3+ 3(3)-           2     1   67% +5   4/5 2/7
Washington 1 3(2)-     2 (1)     3 1(1) 2   40% -8   5/5 4/9
NIU 2 7+ -     1 1             100% +11   1/2 1/2
Rutgers 3+ 5-     1 1       5xx 1   57% +2.5   2/2 1/6
Wisconsin 6 13 1   1 2   1 1 4x 2x   71% +10.5   2/3 1/2
Nebraska 3+ 13(2)-     3 6   3 3 6 1x   55% -1.5   1/3 2/2
Northwestern 2 11(5)+     2 2   1 3 4xx 1   59% -1   5/7 5/8
Michigan St 9++ 19(1)+ - 1   1 1   2 5 5 4   64% +20.5   1/2 1/1
Indiana 4 8(1) 1   4       1 1 1   81% +10   0/0 3/6
Penn State 4+ 8+++(2)     2 4   3 3 3     57% +0   0/0 0/1
Maryland 5 14++(1) 1     2   2 3 1 1   74% +14.5   0/3 5/9

(reminder: you can hover over the letters in the headers if you forget what they mean, or there’s an explainer in the glossary)

JJ MCCARTHY

  Good   Neutral   Bad   Ovr   Reads
Game DO CA SCR   PR MA   BA TA IN BR   DSR GRADE!   RPOs ZRs
W. Michigan 1+++ 2       3   1x   1     60% -2   0/0  
NIU   4+             1   1   67% +4   2/2 3/3
Wisconsin 1                       100% +2   2/2 4/6
Nebraska   1                     100% -   1/1 2/2
Northwestern 1 (2)               2 1   25% +2   0/1 1/2
Michigan St.   2(1)                     100% +2   1/1 4/4
Indiana 1 1     1 1     3x 3 2x   20% -6   2/3 1/2
Maryland 1 1(2)       1             100% +3   2/2 1/1

That’s a better downfield success rating than the Michigan State game but a lower +/-. Do you have an explanation or Caders gonna Cate?

Context man. This was his second-best performance this season to my scoring, but also note the pressure events were a lot lower in this one. I thought for the most part Cade made the right pre-snap read, his first read was open, and he got it there. His receivers made a few drops and a few plays to even that side out. He didn’t let ‘er rip at all, but a few plays that were set up for big yards on a good pass (the Edwards wheel, the Wilson bomb) got a good pass.

I do have nitpicks. Like I want him to put more PA in his PA:

John Duerr pointed this out in his Sunday low-hanging fruit analysis as well. The only chance this play has is for Wilson to get open, and selling the play-action increases the odds that the DB bites on it before he realizes what Wilson’s up to. It didn’t get a minus because the throw was good enough to complete the pass. In the future I’d like Cade to make life a little easier on himself.

McNamara also avoided any bad points for the endzone interception, though there’s an argument he never should have thrown it. I gave him a pass because without this pass interference you figure Schoonmaker is able to go up and at least contest. However it wasn’t likely to be a reception because the safety read it all the way. You can’t see McNamara at all from this angle…

…and that was because he was under immediate pressure and just tossing it up where the playcall said to. So it wasn’t charted, but it could have been really bad.

On the other hand, McNamara’s fades were on the money. This TD was called back for Schoonmaker’s boner, but the throw was placed as well as it could be.

McNamara has a ceiling, sure. That ceiling is good enough to compete for a Big Ten title, and he’s getting closer to it. The recent Michigan quarterback comparison is Jake Rudock, who didn’t really get his shot to perform in the The Game in 2015 before getting knocked out of out. McNamara has made a similar journey this year from borderline cyan to borderline star. It wasn’t on the table against Maryland is easy mode. It’s on the table now. Let’s go to war.

JJ McCarthy tho.

This was a McCarthy Game opportunity if there ever was one: Maryland brings pressure then breaks down on the back end. McCarthy’s most comfortable escaping pressure and finding the guy they left open after the coverage breaks down. It was a match made in Terp hell.

We all know if McNamara is in that first read to All gets out on time and turns into a decent gainer. We also can see how there’s extra potential in weird crap happening after McCarthy misses that first read and has to go off-script. It’s method actor versus an improv impresario. And now that McCarthy is getting a bit more comfortable, and McNamara doesn’t have to think two moments about whether he’s the “starter” anymore, I think the pair is on the cusp of creating an incredible duo.

JJ’s increased comfort also means we get to start having a greater appreciation for the ceiling he’s still probably a few years from coming close to. The five-star arm literally pops.

I’m sorry my copy’s sound doesn’t do it justice, but you heard that catch on the broadcast, as the ball arrives so quickly on a hitch Johnson has to figure out what to do with the time he wasn’t planning to have before the DB arrives. He was going to shield the ball, so he just falls backwards for a few extra. In future circumstances these are going to turn into big YAC opportunities.

Meanwhile his threat as a runner adds another guy the coverage has to account for, which when you’ve already added a running back is just getting unfair.

You don’t want to talk about the greats because there’s so far to go. But sometimes it’s hard not to make the comparisons.

 

Except Denard was never very good at making option reads, and McCarthy has those and the RPOs pretty much down. My Jim Harbaugh 2.0 comp from the preseason is holding up, but we’re still talking Harbaugh circa 1982 or ’83 (QBs come more advanced these days). For now the coaches have to be wondering how they can use that without having a freshman moment cost them The Game.

Heroes?

Donovan Edwards, Cade McNamara, and the receivers.

Maybe not so heroic?

Hassan Haskins (for him).

What does it mean for The Game?

Cade McNamara is on star watch. He’s commanding the offense, and if there’s ever a game to finally remove the handcuffs and let him keep when the keep is there, it’s this one. His limitations (height, arm strength) aren’t going away, but between a tall howitzer and a warrior with a brain you know me well enough by now to know which I’d take in a heartbeat.

JJ McCarthy is greenlit. It’s just going to get more and more fun, but he’s dessert not a main course at this stage.

Donovan Edwards is greenlit. Exactly what he was billed to be. More receiving yards in one game than any Harbaugh RB so far in a season says things about this program’s historical reticence to use their backs this way. Hopefully now they’ve seen the light, because this should work against Ohio State.

Pay no attention to one bad Haskins day. Does he usually fumble or miss gaps? No. Did he do enough positive things to outweigh like three bad moments anyways? Will I meet another person in a #25 jersey and high-five them SO HARD on Saturday? Count on it.

Pay no attention to one bad All day. If you’re in a #83 jersey I’ll high-five you as well. I think they were trying to keep him healthy this week.

The receivers are moving from gonna be to are. You saw the Anthony catch. You’ve seen Sainristil do his things, Henning do his things, Wilson’s breakout before the wrist injury that he’s coming back from, and Cornelius Johnson. And Daylen Baldwin. We’re all worried about Ohio State’s superstars, and yeah they’re on another level, but every week that passes defenses have to be a little more concerned with how they’re going to keep up with all of these Michigan weapons who are starting to come into their own.

The PSU game probably means more to the OL than this one. Ohio State has ELITE-ELITE athletes they can throw at the edges and middle, and the best position coach in the country. Maryland has…not that.

Hope or don’t; both are defensible. Michigan hasn’t played a game yet that would beat Ohio State at its best. Ohio State has played three games that might lose to Michigan at its best. Believing something can happen and having it happen is extremely rewarding, while protecting yourself from disappointment is a necessary skill for mental health. So no more talk please of Debbie Downers and Delusional Daves. Michigan is 10-1, and 2-to-1 to fall to 10-2 with a second loss to a rival while the internet chortles “3rd in the Big Ten East!” at us.

Also in that scenario we’re laughing our way to Pasadena. College football’s dumb playoff system created this weird situation where the nation’s #5 team in all the fancystats is a touchdown+ underdog at home to the #2, because the teams that go to the playoffs get to have anyone they want. It also created a path to the Rose Bowl that goes around Columbus. Whether you want to brace for that or give yourself a chance to fully experience something football hasn’t given you in a decade, the reason UFR exists is the best of fanbases is the only fanbase that can support such a thing. You deserve to have your faith rewarded and your expectations lifted. So no more talk of positivity or negativity please, for what goes on in your head is your own. If you’ve made it his far, your fandom is sincere, and I want you next to me, fist in the air, hailing our victors valiant.

Your Moment of Zen:

Him, Him, Him, Him, and look: a Hughes!

Comments

Watching From Afar

November 23rd, 2021 at 3:43 PM ^

I won't completely dismiss the hope or talk overly negative about issues that I've had with everything this year (and others), though I believe I've been rather consistent and specific to the coaching/scheme issues this year (I don't find it useful talking poorly about 20 year olds playing a game unless it egregious). The team has exceeded my expectations going into the season. Players at every level have stepped up at one point or another and played above what most people thought them to be capable of at this point in their careers, if not ever in a Michigan jersey. Who had Vastardis as a legitimately good Big Ten Center? Who called Hasan Haskins one of the best backs in the country as a high school recruit? Point me in their direction and I will show you a liar!

I am hopeful that the coaches maybe burn the useless part of their playbook, set the best players they have up to succeed, and we see a 2017 redo with a QB that knows what color jerseys to throw to (like I said, only if the 22 year old is egregiously bad).

That all being said, the "read" options are going to get Michigan killed this weekend if they continue. There is nothing historically to point to that the coaching staff knows its an issue, but has been slow walking it to the OSU game to spring it on them at the last second. This is what they run, and until someone asks it in a presser or something, we will never understand why they run (excuse the forced comparison) a 5 out offense with Shaq at the 5 and Ben Wallace at the 4 and Ben Simmons at PG. Edwards was great in this game, but we haven't seen this staff use a RB as a WR more than once in a blue moon before shelving it for 16 months. The players have elevated their game multiple times this year. Have to do it once more and the coaches need to do it too.

Watching From Afar

November 23rd, 2021 at 4:21 PM ^

Cade doesn't need to pull a Patterson v Wisconsin 2018 and pop off an 80 yarder. He just needs to give Haskins more than a quarter of a second to get going. Haskins is one of the best RBs in the country and is awesome at making something out of absolutely nothing. Give him a free yard as a head start and I'm happy. Make him break a tackle a yard behind the LoS because you're leaving a DE/LB unlocked for some stupid reason, and he makes 4 yards (all YAC) instead of 15 (still 4 YAC).

AlbanyBlue

November 23rd, 2021 at 4:30 PM ^

Essentially my thoughts here as well.

I am not going to be negative -- as I have been for much of the Harbaugh era -- since this season has been wonderful relative to expectations.

But I will say that "players continually bailing out the coaches" leads to a hard ceiling of right about 10-2.

I'm hoping we see Cade keep the ball this week, since it's the last regular season game. I feel like the OSU front will be savvy enough to be ready for the keep and the give, though. But what I'm really hoping to see is the diverse mix of run and pass that has been building, without the burned downs and the rut we often get into.

As you say, the players have exceeded expectations this year. The coaches have improved too, but they need to continue to do so. To beat OSU, our coaches have to keep the players in positions to succeed, as they have done more often this year.

MNWolverine2

November 23rd, 2021 at 5:21 PM ^

Agreed!  Edwards being in against OSU is going to be a major tell that it's a pass.  Edwards only got 2 carries in this game and 12 targets - I'm not sure why Maryland never figured out that it was a pass when he was in the game (and that he wasn't staying in for protection like Haskins).

Corum at least gives you the split of run or pass.

dragonchild

November 24th, 2021 at 11:01 AM ^

It's been difficult to appreciate because defenses have been freaked out about containing Michigan's run game.  They're not concerned with a Cade keeper, don't really respect his arm (yet), Corum's been out, and thus Haskins got stuffed by Maryland.  OTOH, they definitely weren't ready for Edwards.

We've been here before.  After terrorizing defenses for a few games, Jake Butt went "quiet" and MGoBlog pointed out he was being double- and even triple-teamed, which opened up other things.  That was back when Michigan had coaches who understood constraint theory, alas.

It'll be interesting to see what OSU does.  They love their athletes, but I like Haskins' chances against any DB, and (full speed) Corum's against any linebacker.  If OSU is forced out of their base to contain the run, the offense absolutely must capitalize in the passing game.

caup

November 23rd, 2021 at 3:59 PM ^

On that long Donovan Edwards YAC TD, watch how effortlessly Andrel Anthony catches up to everyone in a flash, then backs off the jets.

Holy FUCK, Anthony is so fast.

Vote_Crisler_1937

November 23rd, 2021 at 4:35 PM ^

“...McCarthy more snaps in the red zone so they can use the fear he strikes into the backside.” 
 

I think we have an NIL tee shirt here: 

“Strike fear into their backside!” 
 

I would pay for it. 

Mgoczar

November 23rd, 2021 at 4:42 PM ^

Ive never seen Hassan Haskins be super excited. He's either smiling or just sitting (and killing some LB/Safety) all chill like its nothing. Watch the moment of Zen and focus on HH. 

Thank you Hassan Haskins for running the ball so hard. My favorite wolverine these past couple of years. Be the Biakabutuka!

Blue Vet

November 23rd, 2021 at 5:19 PM ^

"method actor versus an improv impresario": I wouldn't have thought of comparing QBs to actors but this is a good one.

Quibble: not great b/c Method acting relies on JJ-ish spontaneity.

Nevertheless, the comparison resonates b/c "method" seems the opposite of improv. Like "methodical." Or Methodist.

 

M-Dog

November 23rd, 2021 at 5:47 PM ^

This time I want you to key in on the top linebacker, the guy just inside the hash mark in front of the referee. Got him? Hit play, and try to empathize with the panic he must be feeling as Edwards is slipping away.

Hats off to Sainristil in this play for pausing ever so slightly for a moment to screen that linebacker who is trying to chase after Edwards.  A heads up play that produces extra yards that does not usually get noticed.

It just did.

  

gweb

November 23rd, 2021 at 6:49 PM ^

My 8th grade son wanted his first vintage jersey and the player of his choice for his September birthday.  My advice… go with the guy that you are proud of having his jersey for many years… not based on potential but what he will do this year and has done.

His choice: Haskins… he’s stoked to represent him with his jersey again at the GAME this weekend!

MaizeBlueA2

November 23rd, 2021 at 7:53 PM ^

Unfortunately, I won't be watching on Saturday. My nerves can't take it.

I'll anxiously check the score at 4pm (knowing me, I'll sneak a peek around 2pm as well).

tybert

November 23rd, 2021 at 11:12 PM ^

Donovan has done more in one game than the last 5-star Derrick Green did in a career.

Lots to like here - we should also close well in recruiting and have two QBs who can play ball - unlike Joe Milton. 

BlueinLansing

November 24th, 2021 at 12:58 AM ^

We all know weird shit has to happen Saturday for Michigan to win, and that first turnover early in the first quarter is going to get in their heads.  And that crowd will roar and these guys will be floating on air.

Its gonna happen, its gotta happen.

ca_prophet

November 24th, 2021 at 4:33 AM ^

"Michigan hasn’t played a game yet that would beat Ohio State at its best. Ohio State has played three games that might lose to Michigan at its best."

This is exactly where I'm at.  Hopefully Michigan will play its best game and OSU won't.

Hail!

 

Jon06

November 24th, 2021 at 6:38 AM ^

A lot of these changes reduce readability. Does mashing numbers together with a key for deciphering them improve the workflow that much? I’m also still getting used to the combined pass/run charts, which seem to me to trend away from analysis and towards synthesis, the culmination of which would just be one number, from which nobody can learn any of the detailed things UFR was developed to reveal.

Not entirely unrelatedly, I can’t read the basketball team diagrams anymore. Too much going on in those for those of us with other day jobs, IMO.

Swayze Howell Sheen

November 24th, 2021 at 8:12 AM ^

"If you’ve made it his far, your fandom is sincere, and I want you next to me, fist in the air, hailing our victors valiant."

beautiful words to end a wonderful column. I want to see one more of these so badly, reveling in a hard-fought victory.