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FORMATION NOTES: All gun.

Michigan was about 50% 2TE and 50% 3-wide, with a couple 3TE plays in short yardage and a couple 4 WR plays on passing downs. Note above that Eubanks is split wide, which he was on about half his snaps.

There was a fair bit of this, which goes in the chart as "Shotgun trips H":

H = tight end off the line of scrimmage. Combined with trips this necessarily means a covered slot receiver. MTSU seemed to have no idea what to do with this and continually dedicated a bunch of DBs out over the receivers, leaving wide open spaces. Your author is continually surprised this gambit keeps working both for and against Michigan.

SUBSTITUTION NOTES: QB was Patterson with a couple of goofy cameos from McCaffrey until the third quarter, when McCaffrey got three drives. Patterson actually got the last TD drive; Milton then got the last two. RB did indeed see all five guys get first-half snaps. Wilson, Haskins, and VanSumeren got a few snaps here and there. Charbonnet and Turner probably had 70-80% of the snaps between them.

WR was more rotation, with the default approach being Collins, Black, and Bell. With Black in the locker room temporarily and Collins on the sideline for no apparent reason, the two-minute drill was Bell, Cornelius Johnson, and Sainristil. Sainristil did not get much meaningful time outside of that.

Lots of two TE sets—about 50%—that were always McKeon and Eubanks. McKeon got almost all of the 1 TE snaps. FWIW, the first guy off the bench in backup time was Schoonmaker. All got a few snaps late as well. No Muhammad.

OL was Hayes/Bredeson/Ruiz/Onwenu/Mayfield. Second team was Barnhart/Filiaga/Vastardis/Korican/Honigford.

[After THE JUMP: arcs defended: 0.]

We're gonna die!

Were you booing Patterson?

maybe a little

Cumong man.

Okay, but, like, are we gonna die?

Let's check those drives. Lots of them in this game. Milton excluded:

• Touchdown drives of 39, 67, 28, 44, and 15 yards.
• FG drives of 57 and 52 yards.
• 84-yard drive ending at the one that set up the 15-yard TD drive.
• Three first-down-and-outs, one 25-yard drive ending in a punt.
• Fumble on first play.

Eight of Michigan's 13 drives were some level of successful, and for a bit in there Michigan looked dominant. And they really could have blown the doors off except for one UFR-breaking thing that kept happening. Check Patterson's run minuses in and the RPS score on the run chart:

So…

What on earth?

I don't think I've ever seen a team not even try to defend a thing for the whole game. Michigan's arc package, which I said I missed at halftime, was both very much part of the picture and also the source of probable UFR records for QB run negatives and RPS positives. It was insane.

So you said you missed the arc package at halftime. Do you still miss it?

Not as badly as Michigan missed a zillion of these reads!

Tip your waitstaff.

The primary takeaway from this game is: ye gods, they could have run an arc keeper on every play. Not infrequently it appeared that Eubanks had nobody to block. Lookit all this grass to the bottom of the screen:

That was immediately after an easy 12-yard arc keeper; this should have been  another easy chunk, but Patterson handed it off. (No, the end isn't a threat, as several actual keepers demonstrated.)

After this one I said, and I quote, "flarbinfugglenuts!"

Nine guys are looking primarily at the inside run fake, Michigan has blockers for the other two, and they have a pitchman.

The obvious question is: how many of these things were actual reads? Matt Miller recently reported that Patterson got hurt on the first play from scrimmage; some folks noted that a post-game video from the locker room showed Patterson with some tape on his ribs. Taking that shot may have caused Michigan to drop the read element on most plays or biased Patterson towards gives, because yeeeeesh. Every time Michigan pulled it was open.

Supporting evidence for the idea that Michigan wasn't going full throttle with Patterson: when McCaffrey came in that was immediately the thing they did, and it was as blitheringly wide open as it had been all day:

So nine of Patterson's run minuses came from not making these reads, as did a couple of McCaffrey's. These are so open, and were always clearly open, that I have to assume some of these were not actual reads and maybe I should go RPS minus some stuff except Michigan still got 6 yards a lot.

So: sort of ignore the –15, except for the bits with the ball on the ground. What a weird game.

So this is why they didn't score all the touchdowns?

Insofar as they could have run an arc read on every play and scored on every drive, yes. But there were some obvious other issues.

First, though, let's talk pants.

PANTS OFF?

A little bit. Particularly the series that went RPO, RPO, Collins touchdown. Nice series. Gets even nicer when you take a close look at the short Patterson run that preceded it. This is actually an arc zone play action:

No OL crosses the LOS. Patterson is ready to throw; McKeon is holding the edge for him. This DB on Collins doesn't take the bait—somehow—but if he does that's a big chunk play on an easy throw. That's connecting the ground game to play action, something that never happened last year. While that one didn't work, the next two plays did:

Also the one that didn't work still gained five yards.

And then the capper?

Via Seth, the design on the Collins TD:

Both here and on the McKeon TD, Michigan stretches the field horizontally on bombs. With the playside S bugging out for the wheel route there's no safety help on a post in the middle of the field. Collins wins the route and demonstrates that he pretty much doesn't need to by literally jumping over the defensive back when the ball is a little short:

More targets for this man please.

That's three guys going vertical. The McKeon TD was four verts, a play Michigan ran zero times last year.

every receiver runs straight downfield

When Gattis talks about stretching every area of the field he isn't kidding.

What is with covered slot plays?

They break rules for how defenses align so if you're not paying attention you get situations like this:

Michigan has all five skill players to the field side of the center. MTSU has a DE, a standup OLB, and a safety to the boundary, none of whom can be useful on a speed option away from them. Michigan should be able to block this to the safety but their WRs mess up and double an overhang corner:

I'm surprised that defenses aren't wise to this these days—this has been a thing for a decade-plus and is only getting more common—but I guess it's a lot easier to perceive from the sideline cam than the field.

But we didn't score all the touchdowns?

Well, there were some problems.

BOO

don't be a dick

It's my job!

Well, okay, yes, in addition to arc zone reads that may or may not be on him, Patterson put the ball on the ground four times. Once was the opening play, a turnover. Once was a mesh point that robbed Michigan of a 20 yard chunk. One killed the two point conversion. One… didn't really matter.

Meanwhile in the air, Patterson was much like his junior self, alternating pinpoint downfield shots with frustrating decisions.

SHEA PATTERSON

Even leaving aside all the arc stuff, Patterson frequently picked the wrong guy to throw to. Determining this is more difficult than usual because of BTN and their pore-o-vision approach to broadcasting football. I yearn for Fox's director who's probably named Rick and looks like Magnum PI.

Anyway: I have no idea what happened on a couple of sacks because BTN. But there were still several examples of missed reads that were obvious even under the circumstances. An early zero-yard throw to Eubanks featured Collins on a drag for near first-down yardage:

And perhaps most egregiously, Patterson threw into literal triple coverage on a flood route that saw both other options wide open:

Yikes, man:

There are only three WRs in this route, so one of those guys has to be option #2, and the line gave Patterson time to get to option 2.

He also had multiple screen issues. Once he pulled the trigger too fast and let a DE recover; once he airballed entirely on one that was set up to go a long way; once he flung a ball too high for a covered Eubanks in the middle of the field. And on the two-point conversion it looks like the fumble was caused because Patterson thought there was going to be a genuine mesh point when there was not.

So: rocky. Hopefully the injury was the source of the arc decision-making. I don't think it was a major factor with his decisions in the air, which were erratic. I was hoping to see more progress, but let's not overstate the issues here. Transition costs are a thing when Patterson isn't dealing on RPOs; the rest of this post is speckled with good things he did.

Do you think he was the best QB in the Big Ten this week?

Er, probably not? I guess Fields messed up a bunch of reads for OSU but so did Patterson. Anyway.

RYAN HAYES FOR LEFT TACKLE

You know, I thought going into this that I'd pooh-pooh this notion after I picked up various errors. Then Harbaugh said Hayes was OL of the week and he graded out like it.

Hayes didn't get flat out beat in pass protection and was flawless in identifying who he was supposed to get—not that easy in context. I do have some concern that against bigger teams he'll be too easy to put in the quarterback's lap. MTSU almost managed it a couple times. But nobody actually beat Hayes for a pressure, something that Mayfield couldn't say:

RT #73 to top

I think the only actual blitz pickup dorf came from Ruiz himself, who counted wrong on the almost-corner route to Bell:

#51 C

Nobody else got let through clean all day against a team that was blitzing on almost every down, and frequently with six.

This is impressive for every OL. The interior line had one pressure minus other than the above one and all graded out well above our desired 2:1 ratio. Hayes was +8 on the ground and had just the one pass pro minus, which people might think is harsh.

And by contrast, Mayfield did have some problems. He got beat around the edge for a couple –1s; he had a couple –2s on the ground because he mis-IDed his man and let guys through to the backfield. I'll believe a returning All Big Ten lineman is getting Wally Pipped when I see it, but Mayfield just got another challenger.

You finally don't hate the running backs!

Well, give it a couple weeks.

You are a couple weeks from finally not hating the running backs!

Better? Jury is still out, clearly, but both Charbonnet and Turner look like the real deal. If Charbonnet stays healthy the Curse of Fred Jackson's Beverages is going to be broken. Charbonnet is fast, runs hard, has open field moves, and has better feel than a lot of backs:

And on top of all that, Charbonnet was 100% on blitz pickups. A couple of these were mansome indeed, instances where he was near-stationary and stoned a guy going full-bore at him:

RB #24

Wilson made his pickup on the Black touchdown but it can't be denied that Charbonnet did it better:

RB #13

One of those features a QB getting hit, and it's not Charbonnet's block.

Meanwhile one of Charbonnet's other pickups was similarly meaty and also required a re-gap:

RB #24

We still don't have enough data to declare Charbonnet the man but nine pickups is a hell of a lot and also, you know, running the ball. Good.

Meanwhile, Christian Turner also delivered. His best play is the one that you've probably already gone dang over:

That is a truck stick and a half from a little guy. But that's not all. Because this is yet another shoulda-coulda pull on which MTSU jams the frontside Turner gets stuck on a cutback with a shuffling DE square to him and is able to jitter past him into the open field. Combining those two things is nice.

Turner consistently lowers his pads and has a little bit of a Karan Higdon effect where he slips underneath a lot of tackles, and he's also quick and balanced. Michigan messes up this pin and pull but Turner is able to rescue it by getting the corner and staying a millimeter inbounds:

Later he'd outrun a LB to the corner, cut up on the sideline again, and then keep his feet through bumps to put up eight yards:

Turner doesn't have Charbonnet's upside because he's a wee lad but early returns are very positive.

And the other guys played too! We got dudes!

Yeah… that was less encouraging. Michigan's deep bench guys got some at-bats that mostly didn't go well. Haskins provided a nice demo of RB pass blocking's value when he got beat to give up a sack. VanSumeren got a couple carries. He wasted a solid play by not cutting up:

When you're 240 the answer to "what do I do with a filling safety?" is "run through him", not "run away from him." I also thought he didn't hit a hole Onwenu had carved out.

On the other hand demonstrated short-yardage chops by turning a fumbled snap and a DE in his teeth into a hard-fought yard:

That is impressive. Now put him behind Mason in a short-yardage I-form.

Wilson, ask again later, hand injury. Charbonnet's pass pro is real bad for his chances to be the lead back.

Sean McKeon was visible more than four yards downfield.

Yeah. His blocking was good but as the numbers indicate, this was not midseason last year when he was the whole damn grading system. Michigan didn't do a lot of frippery with the arc stuff, which felt like the same play over and over without a whole lot of tweaking. So this wasn't the full midseason package from last year that he wasn't executing.

This pull across the formation on Michigan's second play from scrimmage does look like McKeon is trying to go around the DE then manages to hit him when he dives inside, which is a clear sign that the handoff was made:

TE #84 moving across formation

McKeon also flashed receiving skills closer to his freshman year than his desultory 2018. In addition to the TD he was one good play from a defensive back away from a second chunk play:

The body control and separation there is more important than managing to hold onto the ball when the DB gets to punch through it.

Receivers?

You'll have to forgive the lack of a chart this week; due to some technical hassles I fell behind and I'm finishing up from a coffee shop; I left the chart at home. The receiver chart is only interesting in the aggregate anyway.

But we can definitely talk some receivers: yes, they're good. Collins was also able to do some work underneath with a couple of early first-downs. I'm sure better CBs will be more in the area but each and every one of them is going to be terrified of getting a fade on their face, so the hitches and comebacks will be effective:

The drop is unfortunate and also his first at Michigan. With all due respect to Sainristil and Bell I'd be perfectly happy with the Big Three getting every last WR target.

And Bell didn't live up to the hype.

Yes and no. While I'm not team You Gotta Catch Everything You Can Get An Atom Of Your Hand On, Ronnie Bell's day was still disappointing for a guy who'd generated so much offseason hype. The first deep shot to him was a tough catch but the thing that stood out is the lack of separation from the MTSU DB:

In a similar situation Black got away from his guy even before he fell down.

Bell did get separation a couple other times; circumstance conspired against him. Patterson got a heavy rush on a corner route; he just missed badly on a post where the safety level was gone. They clearly like him enough to target him a bunch, and given the context that's gotta mean he's real good. Just didn't get to show it in this game.

In other receiver news, Cornelius Johnson made a nice leaping grab on a hitch and then bailed Patterson out:

Note that this is the play immediately preceding the spike. A screenshot has circulated indicating that the ball may have grazed the ground and the spike was to avoid a potential replay. That live shot demonstrates that was not the case. Even if that ball touched the ground it's still a catch, and the brief instant it did was not apparent to anyone not going frame-by-frame. The Mystery Of WTF Stop Spiking The Ball With Two Timeouts remains unsolved.

Hey, you got any more of that OL three deep talk?

I do. I know you love it. I didn't see much of note in backup time except Vastardis getting a holding flag on what looks to me like a pretty bad-ass play:

His problem is that the push-pull fling he did was too effective. Nice mobility afterwards, too. He could be in the mix next year.

Heroes?

The OL excepting Mayfield. Turner and Charbonnet. Scott Shafer's refusal to ever think about defending an arc read. Black and Collins.

Maybe not so heroic?

Nobody was outright bad but Mayfield checking in with a 0 on the ground against MTSU is a bit of a downer; Patterson made about 3 too many errors for me to be happy.

What does it mean for Army and the future?

Better know what to do with an arc. I mean, everyone else will be much better at this. But the arc is still here. It got a pitch phase added, and they'll play off of it with the midseason stuff McKeon wasn't quite ready for last year. Eubanks looks like he's stepped forward as a blocker and should at least be able to match Gentry, who was meh, and may exceed him. Very happy that Michigan kept and is building on the most effective bit of their offense last year. Now it's even got PA!

Four verts. Michigan's passing game is direct and aggressive.

Pickups. Michigan's pass pro was near 80% against a lot of blitzing, with exactly one missed blitz pickup. They're organized.

Patterson is not quite there yet. Could be first game stuff; I'm a little worried this is just the guy he is. Mental errors were commonplace last year.

Please dump the 2 QB thing. It's goofy and McCaffrey isn't the kind of dual threat guy it makes sense with anyway.

Running back: a strength? If Charbonnet is already Tru Wilson, but Fast and Big, holy crap you guys. Add in Christian Turner's impressive start and they're on track to easily exceed expectations.

Collins: 10 targets a game. I beg you.

Hayes hype is real. Mayfield's debut was okay. Hayes crushed expectations. Have to see what happens when Hayes takes the full brunt of a 280-pound SDE before we can say he's ready now. There's a reason he wasn't in the RT battle, and that's the most likely one.