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FORMATION NOTES: Not much of note other than the occasional pistol formation and one I-Form Big on the goal line. Michigan did have a wildcat snap inside the five as well. About 60% of snaps had 2 TEs; the large majority of the rest were 3 WR formations.

Illinois mostly had a slightly shaded odd front:

This resulted in Michigan running a bunch of trap plays that didn't feel like traps, but more about that later.

SUBSTITUTION NOTES: QB/OL the usual except McCaffrey came in for the last three drives and Hayes got the last two. The deep backups didn't get in at all. Odd.

Haskins and Charbonnet again split the RB snaps down the middle until Wilson got in late-ish; Mason got a few snaps as a FB/TE and Turner got in for one meaningful snap and a few late.

At TE McKeon took back the starting spot, logging a ton of snaps; Eubanks got all the 2TE snaps, of which there were many. All and Schoonmaker got some time, with All getting in for the last two drives. At WR the usual rotation between Black/DPJ/Collins on the outside and Bell/Sainristil in the slot, with Bell getting some outside WR snaps. Jackson and Johnson made cameos.

[After THE JUMP: mediations on a trap]

Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O41	1	10	Shotgun twins	1	2	2	Base 3-4	6.5	Run	Power Trap	Haskins	6
This is a trap, I guess, with the playside DE being let go, but it ends up functioning like power, mostly; it’s not about getting a DL flying upfield and out of the play, it’s just running power at the DL and avoiding the OLBs. Onwenu(+1) and Ruiz(+0.5) get the nose blown out for the gap; Onwenu is able to climb and affect a linebacker. Bredeson(+0.5) gets the kick on the other DE; Eubanks(-0.5) is the second guy through and gets a meh block on the other LB; that guy is able to tackle Haskins, otherwise this is to the S and probably near first down yardage.
O35	2	4	Shotgun trips TE	1	1	3	Base 3-4	7	Run	Pin and pull	Haskins	2
DPJ motions to the backfield and goes on an orbit back to the field. PNP the other way. Mayfield(-0.5) stood up and shoved back by his downblock. Gap gets narrow and McKeon(-1) loses the force guy, who is able to chop out Haskins’s legs at the LOS.
O33	3	2	Pistol FB twins	2	1	2	4-3 under	8	Run	Split zone	Haskins	4
McKeon(+1) gets a nice driving block on a DE on the backside to open this up. Runyan(+0.5) chips in by posting the guy up on his shoulder and keeping alert for any blitzers. Mason(+1) stops an OLB coming down hard and Haskins(+0.5) has the gap; he drags some guys.
O29	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Base 3-4	6.5	Pass	In	Collins	14
Two LBs sent, one off the corner; picked up. Route package has two underneath guys widening out the zone defenders and a guy in cover 3 on Collins, who breaks off his route and is in a ton of space for an easy pitch and catch. (CA, 3, protection 2/2, RPS +1)
O15	1	10	Pistol trips H	1	1	3	3-4 flip weak	6	Run	Improv	Haskins	5
Michigan screws something up here as the TE in an H-back spot is moving as if it’s split zone as the line blocks the other way; compounding matters is that MD shifted their defense heavily to the playside here and there’s a LB McKeon has no shot at running directly at the backfield. Haskins(+2) is able to cut back behind two DL coming through the line and break a tackle to rescue it and get a nice gain. Borges told Sam he thought this was Patterson failing to flip the TE to the other side of the line presnap; I’m just putting this on RPS(-2).
O10	2	5	Shotgun twins twin TE	1	2	2	Base 3-4	8	Pass	Fade	Collins	Inc
Redzone fade at Collins on which Collins has a lot of room but can’t really get much of a jump because he’s fighting with the DB and a little off balance; also this is too far outside so he can’t attempt to go straight up; he goes up with one hand and just gets his fingertips to it. (MA, 1, protection 1/1)
O10	3	5	Shotgun 4-wide	1	1	3	Nickel even	6	Pass	Out	DPJ	4
This is really a six yard catch with a horrendous spot(refs -2) on which M uses a pick from Sainristil to free up space on an easy read and catch.Or that’s the idea; Sainristil(route -) doesn’t actually get in the way much and there’s a contest on the catch. (CA, 2, protection 1/1)
O6	4	1	?	1	1	3	?	?	Run	QB sneak	Patterson	2
They get it; we don’t see it.
O4	1	G	Shotgun 3TE	1	3	1	Goal line	10	Run	QB pin and pull	Patterson	3
Hayes in as a bonus OL. QB run to even the numbers up; Hayes(+0.5) and McKeon(+0.5) cut off their guys. Charbonnet(+1) gets a nice long kickout block; Runyan(-0.5) gets confused and goes for the same kickout initially but then holds up and gets a DL. Delay means Bredeson cannot pull around this and goes for the same guy, so Patterson has a couple unblocked guys and can’t score. But close.
O1	2	G	I-Form Big	2	2	1	Goal line	10	Run	Down G	Charbonnet	-1
A down G on which a backside LB sells out on the run and is able to tackle Charbonnet by the ankles when he’s about to score; Hayes(+0.5 ) did just enough on the edge and Mason(+0.5) came up to finish the relevant guy. RPS -1.
O1	3	G	Wildcat twin TE	1	2	2	Goal line	7	Run	Split zone	Charbonnet	2
Motion Patterson out, direct snap to Charbonnet, split zone at the area the LB moving out on Patterson just vacated. Runyan(+2) and Bredeson(+1) put a DL in the endzone and Runyan pancakes him; Bredeson pops off on a LB. Eubanks(+1) gets a tough kickout on which the DE is coming in tight and he gives up ground; TD is easy. RPS +1.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 14-0, 8 min 1st Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M9	1	10	Shotgun twin TE	1	2	2	Base 3-4	7	Run	Trap	Haskins	4
Split zone except the LT leaves a 3-4 DE and goes for the OLB while the TE gets the kickout. That’s Mason(+0.5) and he stands that DT up. M trying to double the NT but doesn’t manage it. Bredeson(-0.5) doesn’t get much of a chip and Ruiz(-0.5) doesn’t get motion on his guy as he tries to seal. Haskins could stull make it work if he sets the block up and cuts right off his OL but he commits a little early and Ruiz’s guy is able to get to the gap. Onwenu(+1) blew up a LB; Mayfield(+0.5) turned a kickout guy out so only guy tackling is the NT and it’s a decent gain.
M13	2	6	Shotgun twins twin TE	1	2	2	Base 3-4	7	Pass	PA rollout deep out	Black	Inc
PA, waggle. Patterson has time on the edge and finds Black for a chunk, but the throw is high and outside and Black can barely get a finger on it. (IN, 0, protection N/A)
M13	3	6	Shotgun 2-back	1	1	3	3-3 stack	6	Pass	Dumpoff	Haskins	-1
Jackson in the backfield and he runs the angle route common in these situations. MD LB blankets it, route minus. Looks like everyone really is covered this time as Patterson checks down to Haskins, who is nailed immediately. (MA, 3, protection 1/1) RPS -1, Maryland had this dead to rights.
Drive Notes: Punt, 14-0, 1 min 1st Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M20	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Base 3-4	6.5	Pass	PA TE cross	Eubanks	Inc
PA, pull Onwenu, LB level deleted. MD S goes the wrong way and this is going to be a giant catch and run; Patterson throws it way behind Eubanks and he can’t make the circus catch. (IN, 1, protection 1/1, RPS +2)
M20	2	10	Shotgun twins twin TE	1	2	2	Base 3-4	7	Run	Bash	Turner	-5
Blitz off the slot from Maryland on which Eubanks(-1) gets beat across his face as the blitzer decides not to be force and is able to jet past Eubanks and get a tackle in on Turner(-1), who goes down pretty easily.
M15	3	15	Shotgun trips	1	1	3	3-3 stack	6	Pass	Screen	Haskins	10
Screen works, sort of! Ruiz(-1) misses his guy and Haskins(+1) has to break a tackle at two yards; he does and is able to stumble forward for a solid gain, but not a first down. Decent shot M gets this if Ruiz gets his block. (CA, 3, screen)
Drive Notes: Punt, 14-0, 6 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M18	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Base 3-4	6	Run	Pin and pull	Charbonnet	2
Missed cut by Charbonnet(-2). Runyan(+1) seals the playside end inside; Onwenu is never going to catch a LB two yards to the field of him on the snap but because of the Runyan block Charbonnet can slash upfield inside of Onwenu for a big gain. Instead he extends to the sideline. LB runs him down as soon as there’s a little contain.
M20	2	8	Shotgun twin TE	1	2	2	Base 3-4	7	Run	Inside zone	Charbonnet	1
Patterson(-2) misses a clear keep read on an arc read where he’s got the jet guy as an arc blocker and Eubanks cutting off interior pursuit, of which there is none and never will be. Read OLB crashes on Charbonnet in the backfield.
M21	3	7	Shotgun 4-wide	1	0	4	Exotic	5.5	Pass	Hitch	Black	6
Controversial Black route on which he runs an eight yard hitch on third and seven and is open. Ball is well late from Patterson, who still has it when Black turns around, and is upfield and low, requiring a diving catch. Brian Griese blames the WR. (IN, 1, protection 1/1)
Drive Notes: Fake punt converts, 14-0, 3 min 2nd Q. Here's Barrett and the flying wedge.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M41	1	10	Pistol twins	1	2	2	4-3 over SAM	7	Pass	Post	Collins	51
Collins deep ball works. S pulls up on PA, post is open. Patterson sees it a little late and ends up holding Collins up; he’s got two or three steps on the CB (route+) but has to bring in a tough contested catch after the DB nearly rakes it out. (CA, 1, protection 2/2, RPS +1)
O8	1	G	Shotgun twins twin TE	1	2	2	Base 3-4	8	Pass	?	Collins	Inc
Bizarre route from Collins, who threatens inside, finds the DB is playing inside leverage, and then seems to run a cross behind him. Patterson throws a slant. (Not charted, 0, protection 1/1, Collins route -)
O8	2	G	Shotgun twin TE	1	2	2	4-4 over	8.5	Run	Counter trap	Charbonnet	8
M again leaving second man from EMLOS unblocked, call it a trap I guess but it doesn’t really function like one. DE is wise to this and shuffles down the line; Bredeson(+1) does a nice job to find him  and put him on the ground, eventually. Eubanks(+1) climbs over this and finds his man; Charbonnet(+2) does a really nice job to slalom through those gates and score. Mayfield(+0.5) got just enough on his kickout.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 21-0, 1 min 2nd Q. 12 secs for M on next drive.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O48	1	10	Shotgun twins twin TE	1	2	2	Nickel over	6.5	Pass	TE wheel	McKeon	28
Best throw of the day for Patterson as he reads a LB not getting deep enough on the wheel and throws an inch perfect arcing ball that just barely takes McKeon OOB. (DO, 3, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: Missed FG, 21-0, EOH
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M22	1	10	Shotgun twin TE	1	2	2	Base 3-4	6.5	Run	Counter trap	Haskins	7
DE left as Runyan goes for a slot LB blitz; Onwenu(+1) kicks him out. Bredeson(+0.5) gets a good chip on the NT; Ruiz(-0.5) kind of stalls out with him and cant control the guy. ND threatens the intended gap but he’s a yard downfield so Haskins(+2) can cut behind the Ruiz block and dodge a safety for a nice gain.
M29	2	3	Shotgun twins twin TE	1	2	2	Base 3-4	7.5	Run	Pin and pull	Haskins	3
McKeon(+1) and Mayfield(+1) combo the playside end to pancake him, with McKeon getting to a second level block. Ruiz(-2) gets shoved a yard in the backfield and picks off Bredeson; Bredeson can’t get the kickout and Haskins(+0.5) gets hit in the backfield. He’s able to break that tackle and pick up 3 YAC.
M32	3	In	Shotgun twin TE	1	2	2	Base 3-4	8	Run	Split zone	Haskins	1
Ruiz(+1) and Onwenu(+1) blow out the NT this time and Haskins should probably just slam it up next to them even though a DE is threatening to close that gap. Mayfield(-1) can’t control that guy but if Haskins blasts him with Mayfield also pushing that’s going one way. Instead he tries to cut back behind the Mayfield block and ends up eating that DE without as much momentum. He still grinds it out; Eubanks(+0.5) got a good split block to prevent a second Terp from helping.
M33	1	10	Shotgun twins twin TE	1	2	2	Base 3-4	6.5	Pass	Y cross	Eubanks	Inc
Zoom and no replay so we don't really get a look about whether this is the right decision. I doubt it is since Eubanks has a guy jumping this route and an accurate throw could be a PBU or INT; the two other routes on what’s presumably flood might be better bets. Also this ball is nowhere near Eubanks. (IN, 0, protection 2/2)
M33	2	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Base 3-4	6.5	Run	Counter trap	Haskins	2
RPS here I think as the DE Mayfield is trying to pass up goes to shove him backwards and he has no shot at getting to the overhang LB. Bredeson doesn’t read the situation fast enough to kick the overhang guy out but does go after him and slow him a little. McKeon(+0.5) gets a good second level block; Onwenu doesn't actually chip the NT as Ruiz(+0.5) moves him away a bit and then gets a meh second level block; Haskins closed down. RPS -1.
M35	3	8	Shotgun trips TE	1	1	3	3-3 stack	6	Pass	Dumpoff	Wilson	Inc
Mayfield(-2) doesn't read a stunt fast enough and his guy gets through pretty much clean as he gets too much space between himself and Onwenu, who picks up the other half. Still enough time for Patterson to evaluate a triangle read; he chooses poorly, going for Wilson in the flat when Sainristil over the middle has a much better shot at the conversion; ball knocked down. (BA, 0, protection 0/2)
Drive Notes: Punt, 21-0, 12 min 3rd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M40	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Base 3-4	6.5	Pass	Comeback	DPJ	7
Three man rush; Patterson sits back and finds DPJ on a comeback right on the sideline. A little short for a DO but close. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
M47	2	3	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Base 3-4	6.5	Run	Trap	Charbonnet	4
A more traditional trap where the TE picks a guy up and the OL just goes forward with doubles. McKeon((-1) gets blasted back by a DE who’s pretty used to traps now and that guy is able to peel off and tackle. M still gets the first down as Ruiz(+0.5) and Onwenu(+1) eject the NT, with Onwenu getting an eliminating second level block,
O49	1	10	Shotgun 2TE	1	2	2	Base 3-4	6.5	Run	Counter trap	Charbonnet	7
Back to the counter action and this goes better with the DE because Bredeson(+0.5) is the guy on the trapped DE; he’s bigger and also closer. Ruiz(+1) and Onwenu(+0.5) again eject the NT, with better work on the NT and worse on the second level so flip those grades. Eubanks(+0.5) gets a confused LB; Bredeson’s DE is able to come off and tackle but 4 yards downfield this time.
O42	2	3	Shotgun 2TE	1	2	2	Base 3-4	7.5	Run	Counter trap	Charbonnet	5
Play it again, Sam. This time the trap DE sticks to Onwenu’s butt and Bredeson(+1) has to find him and stall him out in an awkward spot. Eubanks(+1) gives him a little shove to help and then gets a LB, Mayfield(+0.5) gets a kick and Charbonnet(+0.5) picks his way through the line.
O37	1	10	Shotgun 2TE	1	2	2	Base 3-4	7.5	Pass	TE out	Eubanks	7
Four man rush no problem; Eubanks pops open underneath the zone and has a good shot at some YAC but this is behind him; he’s got to stop and turn for the catch, allowing a LB to tackle immediately. (MA, 2, protection 1/1)
O30	2	3	Shotgun trips TE	1	1	3	Base 3-4	7	Pass	Flare screen	Bell	5
Bell motions from trips to the box, orbit motion, flare screen. MD DBs play this super soft, not challenging obvious stalk blocks, and they leave it to the S to the playside. He’s able to make a shoestring tackle on Bell but only after the first down. (CA, 3, screen, RPS +1)
O25	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Base 3-4	7	Pass	Flare screen	Bell	14
Stretch action the othe way absorbs the slot LB, it’s 2 v 3 to the field and the DBs are making contact with M WRs six yards downfield. Johnson(+0.5) in the way; Jackson(-0.5) not really. Bell(+1) does well to grind out a chunk of YAC but thisis mostly free. (CA, 3, screen, RPS +2)
O11	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Base 3-4	7	Pass	Fade	Black	Inc
Excellent fade here that Black should catch in bounds. He misreads it and jumps,but the ball hits him in the chest. He can keep his feet on the ground and score; instead he’s about an inch OOB. (CA, 2, protection 1/1)
O11	2	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel even	6.5	Pass	RPO slant	Sainristil	Inc
Slot LB blitzes so this is open and the pull is right but Patterson hitches up, which you can’t do, and then throws it behind Sainristil; S comes down and wallops him, causing a dangerous deflection. (INX, 0, RPO)
O11	3	10	Shotgun twin TE	1	2	2	3-3 stack	6.5	Pass	Fade	Collins	Inc (Pen +9)
Fade, panicked DB, and Collins is two inches from an incredible catch. He spears this with one hand and brings it in but his toe lands right on the white line. (CA, 1, protection 1/1) Don't care, giving him this, OOB because of the PI.
O2	1	G	Shotgun 2TE	1	2	2	Goal line	9	Run	Power Trap	Haskins	1 (Pen -10)
Solid gap as Runyan(+0.5) posts up the trap DE for a second to rob him of momentum and then that guy flings himself in the general direction of Onwenu unsuccessfully; Haskins should probably follow Eubanks farther inside and score but he goes straight ahead to get a it down to the half-yard line. Onwenu(-2) gets called for a hold as the DE fires way inside of him in an unexpected way, and yeah.
O12	1	G	Shotgun twin TE	1	2	2	Base 3-4	7	Pass	Waggle RB flat	Haskins	0
PA waggle sees Patterson get immediate pressure and Haskins swarmed by two guys. (CA, 3, protection N/A, RPS -2)
O12	2	G	Shotgun twin TE	1	2	2	Nickel over	7	Run	Counter	Haskins	7
No trap here, just a plain old counter as MD is in more of an even front and the DE is outside of Runyan. Runyan(+1) gets a good kick that eliminates that guy; Bredeson(+1) whacks the NT and gets a second level block; Ruiz(-1) tries to fire off on this guy as well but ends up stumbling past and dude could make a tackle but is off balance and lurches past the play.
O5	3	G	Shotgun 2TE	1	2	2	Base 3-4	9	Pass	RPO TE flat	Eubanks	5
Arc look, MD dead set on stopping arc so it flings one edge guy at the back and a second at the QB; Eubanks wide open for a score. (CA, 3, RPS +2)
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 28-0, 5 min 3rd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M38	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Base 3-4	6	Pass	TE out?	McKeon	Inc
Another triangle read to the field here; Patterson appears to pick the TE route for 5 or 6 but airmails it so that the ball lands almost equidistant from all three WRs. (IN, 0, protection 1/1)
M38	2	10	Shotgun trips TE	1	1	3	4-3 over SAM	6.5	Run	Pin and pull	Wilson	39
MD refuses to get locked inside on this so McKeon(+1) has no shot at the seal; instead he has to kick out. Bredeson(+1) finds a kickout as well and blows him up. Onwenu(+1) reads this and adjusts to go inside; he doesn't really have anyone to block because the LB/S are gone frontside but he does bash into Runyan and help carve out the lane; Wilson(+1) cuts back into it; Ruiz(+2) got a seal on a backside DE and that is the key block.
O23	1	10	Shotgun twin TE	1	2	2	Base 3-4	6.5	Run	Pin and pull	Wilson	6
Three guys pull here, unusual. McKeon(+1) fires the DE inside so this will proceed as usual. Runyan, Bredeson, and Onwenu(+0.5 each) all find their guys on pulls and Wilson gets left with the last guy in the box; M had Eubanks on the outside with nothing to do.
O17	2	4	Shotgun twins	1	2	2	Base 3-4	8	Run	Counter	Wilson	3
Bredeson(+1) and Ruiz(+1) dispose of the NT; Bredeson climbs and gets a second guy as Ruiz finishes the NT. Runyan(-0.5) allows his kickout to slide inside of him and Onwenu(-0.5) should probably pick him off given the way they’ve played this so far; instead he goes to the overhang LB. Gets him,but not likely to be relevant. It’s not as Runyan’s guy comes off the block and tackles.
O14	3	1	Shotgun twin TE	1	2	2	Base 3-4	7	Run	Split zone	Haskins	14
Easy TD as there's a big bubble in the line away from the split zone action and the MD LB level doesn’t know what it’s doing. One guy goes for Patterson, ok. The other two guys stand outside the TEs the whole play. Runyan(+1) turns out a DL and ends up falling but has done enough; Bredeson(+1) climbs quickly to one of the LBs. NT slants to Onwenu(+1), who locks him out. Someone had to bust because Haskins now just jaunts to EZ.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 35-0, 1 min 3rd Q. McCaffrey enters.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M29	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Base 3-4	7	Run	Zone stretch	Wilson	-2
Ruiz(+1) and Bredeson(+1) combo the NT and reach him. Mayfield(-2) and Onwenu(-1) get split by the other guy; feels more like a Mayfield thing because he’s just trying to pass the guy off and Onwenu is actually hitting the guy; Wilson gets buried.
M27	2	12	Pistol 3-wide	1	1	3	Base 3-4	7	Pass	Fly	Collins	Inc
Really seems like you need a check here because this is Collins running a double move against zone coverage and two safeties at 13 yards. We never see the outside WR to the field but the two guys on the screen are very covered. McCaffrey vastly overthrows Collins but Collins had stopped on his route; I dunno man. (not charted, 0, protection 2/2, RPS -2)
M27	3	12	Shotgun 4-wide	1	1	3	3-3 stack	6	Pass	Dumpoff	Wilson	11
Little bit of happy feet here after a read; doesn’t have to leave the pocket but does. He makes a good decision to flip the ball to Wilson, who’s open and nearly picks this up. (CA, 3, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: Punt, 35-7, EO3Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O43	1	10	Shotgun twins twin TE	1	2	2	Base 3-4	7	Pass	Waggle TE cross	McKeon	Inc
PA, waggle, good coverage from MD both short and deeper. McCaffrey gets his shoulders square and fires an accurate pass to McKeon but it gets PBUd from behind. (CA, 0, protection N/A , RPS is off)
O43	2	10	Shotgun twins twin TE	1	2	2	Base 3-4	6.5	Pass	RPO slant	Sainristil	Inc
RPO slant is open; pull and McCaffrey gets the ball out ASAP. Hits Sainristil in stride but out so quick that he doesn't seem to pick it up; at least a first down and maybe more if he can outrun the S. (CA, 3, RPO)
O43	3	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	3-3 stack	6	Pass	Cross	Black	10
Four man rush pushes the pocket a little; McCaffrey stands in and finds Black on a crossing route to convert. (CA, 3, protection 2/2)
O33	1	10	Shotgun 2TE	1	2	2	Base 3-4	6.5	Run	Split zone	Wilson	4
Runyan(+1) fires in a DE; All(+0.5) gets the split kickout and McKeon(+1) gets a good second level block; this should get a nice chunk but a slot LB came down and blitzes and is able to grab the RB from behind to hold this down.RPS is off.
O29	2	6	Shotgun 2TE	1	2	2	Base 3-4	7	Run	Zone read keeper	McCaffrey	5
OLB is the option guy as McKeon flares for a CB. McCaffrey(+0.5) makes a legit post-snap decision, it appears, on a nominally shuffling end, and beats him despite that end reacting pretty well to the pull. He gets down at the end of the run, diving forward for a nice gain.
O24	3	1	Shotgun twins twin TE	1	2	2	Base 3-4	8	Run	Trap	Haskins	1
Kind of asking for it running this again with All as your trap blocker. All(+1) does his best, blasting the DE, but that guy came pretty far inside and Haskins doesn't have a path. To get inside All he has to run into Ruiz; he does manage to fall forward for the first.
O23	1	10	Shotgun twins twin TE	1	2	2	Base 3-4	8	Run	Inside zone	Haskins	4
Could make a case for a keep here as well as the overhang LB slides inside pretty heavily; Haskins(+0.5) ends up cutting back behind all the way and gets some yards, usually a sign you could have kept. McKeon(+1) drives a DE far enough downfield that Haskins has a cutback; Runyan(+0.5) helped with that block and came off to get a second level guy.
O19	2	6	Shotgun 2TE	1	2	2	Base 3-4	8	Run	Jet arc keeper	McCaffrey	-1
Jet on which the jet guy becomes your arc escort. Heavy blitz off the edge leads to a keep; DPJ(-2) misses on the EMLOS and he’s able to track it down.
O20	3	7	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	3-3 stack	6	Pass	PA TE cross	McKeon	Inc
McCaffrey throws direct at a dropping LB for a near-INT. (BRX, 0, protection 1/1)
Drive Notes: FG(37), 38-7, 9 min 4th Q. Final drive is three runs with 3 minutes left, charting over.

I mean… meh?

Meh. The overall picture when Patterson was in, with the three-and-out before the fake punt regarded as such:

• TD drives of 62, 60, 59, and 41 yards.
• One 29-yard wheel route at the end of the half to set up a FGA
• three three-and-outs and a first-down-and-out

That's okay but not exactly inspiring against the #71 SP+ defense. It's a far cry from the blastings PSU and OSU handed out to Maryland.

Why was this so bleah then?

It was mostly Patterson missing throws. Michigan's drives in the negative bucket see Patterson

• miss Black on 2nd and 6, then throw a (possibly justified) –1 yard dumpoff to Haskins on the ensuing third down,
• throw behind Eubanks on what looked like a chunk play on first and ten, followed by the –5 yard Turner run and a screen,
• pull Black upfield on third and seven, and
• miss Eubanks on first and ten and check down to Wilson on third and eight when he's got better options.

The run game chips in here and there and there was one pressure instance but… yeah. I know people are going to rabble at me in the comments about this, but it is what it is and it's not pretty.

SHEA PATTERSON

	Good				Neutral			Bad					Ovr
Game	DO	CA	SCR		PR	MA		BA	TA	IN	BR		DSR	PFF
MTSU	2	14(3)	3		4	3(1)		1	2	4(2)*	2*		70%	-
Army	1	17(2)+++	1		1	3		-	6*	5	-		61%	-
Wisconsin	2	15(3)++	1		7	7		1*	2*	5	2*		63%	-
Rutgers	4	11(1)+	1		1	5		-	1*	3	-		79%	-
Iowa	-	15(4)+	2		2	1		-	4**	3	3*		56%	-
Illinois	-	10+	1		-	3		-	1	7	1(1)		58%	-
Penn State	2	25(5)++	2		1	8(2)		-	3	7(1)	2		69%	-
Notre Dame (rain)		2+			1	4		-		1	1*		50%	-
Notre Dame (clear)	1	4				2		-	1*	1*	1		62%	-
Maryland	1	10(2)				3		1	-	6*	-		56%	-

The thing is it started so well. I thought this would be the whole game:

Historically Patterson has shredded low-level pass defenses, especially ones that can't get to the QB. I don't think Patterson got touched.

Unfortunately, after the opening drive Patterson's accuracy went off a cliff. I don't know what to make of this. This space has been pretty critical of Patterson this year but our hypothesis about him is that he's an exactingly accurate thrower with bad pocket presence who's not good at reading defenses. Here Patterson sat in the pocket, found receivers, and delivered the ball well behind them or into the turf:

There was no weather to speak of and a total of two pressure minuses. I dunno, man.

There were a couple bits of our general theory of Patterson poking out. After watching Tanner Morgan carve up Penn State on Minnesota's seemingly flawless RPO game this little hitch-up after Patterson pulls stood out:

You can't do that on an RPO. For one, Michigan was fortunate not to get an illegal man downfield penalty as Bredeson crossed the line of no return. For two, that hitch got Sainristil blown up by the safety. After a season of nonstop RPO hype Michigan threw a total of three in this game, one of them from McCaffrey. I think we've got a lot of evidence Patterson's processing speed is preventing Michigan from running what Gattis clearly wants to run.

On the other hand this was excellent…

…and is sort of painful because I thought that was going to be the season. Nope. With no upward trajectory and Michigan all but deleting QB reads from their offense I don't see a whole lot of hope that Patterson pulls out the game of his life against OSU.

But Brian Griese's in his corner?

We've seen all year that you can't trust former quarterbacks to evaluate their peers, and this was no different. It is still baffling that this could be the state of your route…

…and after the QB throws late and upfield to set up fourth down, the color commentator makes zero mention of the throw. Black has turned around already and the ball is still in the QB's hand. I guess you could argue that Black being open a yard past the sticks is not enough margin for error. That's tenuous to say the least. Throw the eight yard hitch on time. If you throw it late don't take your WR off his feet and maybe he can fight for the yard he needs. The end.

An earlier fade for Collins on which Griese complained about Collins not going up with two hands was also pretty goofy, as the replay showed. This ball is well outside of Collins's body and if he goes up with two hands he's not touching the ball at all:

I would totally buy that Collins didn't fade the route enough, that he wasn't in the right spot for a good throw. I'm gonna let Nico Collins decide if he's able to get both hands on a ball.

This got so bad that in the second half Steve Levy and Griese had a discussion about how massively disappointing Michigan's wide receivers have been, a take so detached from reality that I muted the TV.

[0 = uncatchable, 1 = circus catch, 2 = moderate difficulty, 3 = routine]

	THIS WEEK					SEASON
Player	0	1	2	3		0	1	2	3
DPJ			1/1	1/1		5	2/6	5/5	15/16
Collins	2	2/3		1/1		3	4/7	5/6	15/16
Black	1	1/1	0/1	1/1		10	2/4	1/4	15/16
Bell				2/2		8	2/7	4/8	20/22
Johnson						1	1/1	1/1
Sainristil	1			0/1		3	1/1		3/5
Jackson				1/1			0/1		2/2
McKeon				1/1		5	0/1	1/2	6/6
Eubanks		0/1	1/1	1/1		4	0/3	6/7	14/15
All									1/1
Schoonmaker									2/2
Charbonnet						4		0/1	7/7
Turner						1			3/3
Mason							0/1
Haskins				2/2					3/3

Routes: Collins +-, Sainristil –, Jackson-.

Leaving out guys who mostly play with the backups, Michigan has a total of 6 flat drops on the season; that's a 93% routine catch rate. The WR/TE corps is 22 of 30 moderately tough catches and straight up bailed Patterson out on 8 of 28 circus attempts. Maybe you could argue that they haven't met expectations. Maybe they're not as open as they should be—although I'd dispute that. There's no justifying that take.

Ironically, the clearest WR error in the game drew no mention from Griese. This fade from Patterson is on point and will hit Black in the facemask; Black jumps unnecessarily so it hits him in the chest and then can't get his foot in bounds as he comes down:

This is the one thing that didn't draw criticism. Go figure.

I like the thing they did that one time.

Speed except I have to talk about Nico Collins time:

Lost in yet another Collins PI on a fade was the fact that he caught the ball with one hand and was about an inch from an all-time great catch:

I gave him in the chart if that affects your take on whether or not Michigan WRs have been disappointing. It should not. I mean:

Michigan pass attempts beyond 20+ yards:

Nico Collins: 6/9 for 201 yards @ 22.3 yards per attempt. 2 TDs. And 4 DPIs

Everyone else: 7/24 for 182 yards @ 7.6 yards per attempt. 2 TDs. And 2 DPIs@mgoblog @AceAnbender

— Jarad Evans (@Jarad_Evans) November 12, 2019

If Collins heads to the NFL after this season without putting up 200 yards on OSU he's going to be one of the most misused talents at Michigan in a long time.

Some minuses from those slots though.

Yes, both of Michigan's freshman slots had Freshman WRs Suck moments. Jackson was the primary read on a third and six where he came out of the backfield; he gets no separation on his guy because of an angle route where his attempted move outside doesn't get the LB to bite at all:

WR #15 in backfield to top

This turned into a –1 yard dumpoff I put in the neutral bin because I didn't see anything Patterson could have done instead.

Meanwhile, Sainristil dropped an RPO slant from McCaffrey:

The earlier RPO slant wasn't on him at all. That one was pretty bad, and is probably why he's struggled to see the field after a boatload of offseason hype. He has two drops in five opportunities. That and the playing time paint a picture of a lot of practice drops.

In happier brief cameos, Erick All does not block like the other TEs block. Here he's a 215 pound guy trying to trap a DE who knows damn well what's coming and he wins:

TE #83 to top

I wonder if he'll be able to maintain his productivity against better players since a lot what he does seems to be lunging recklessly at guys but there is absolutely no doubt he goes all out to block. Will be fascinating to see him develop; I withdraw assertions he should be a WR.

Okay so the passing game was wobbly but the run game went back to meh against a team that got obliterated by Minnesota and OSU just before and after this game.

It was 4.6 YPC, which isn't outright bad. And given the game context I understand why the QB runs might get put away. (Patterson had just two, a QB sneak and a called power play near the goal line.) Michigan's up 14 immediately, and there's barely time to think about busting out your QB runs on subsequent drives because you go three and out immediately and/or bomb it to Collins that one time. Then it's halftime and you really really do not need to expose your potentially-still-injured QB to hits.

But the inevitable result of this unless you have a white-hot RPO game like Minnesota does—sigh—is that your run game goes back to old-timey football where 4.6 YPC is dang good because equalizing the numbers is not something that's been invented from the spread yet.

So it was appropriate that Michigan spent most of the game running gap-blocked plays. They were technically traps but didn't feel like trap plays. A trap is… well, it's a trap. The idea is that you leave a DL unblocked and he gets big cartoony eyes and runs straight upfield, whereupon he gets hit with a mallet from the side. Also the linebacker level can get an entirely wrong idea about where the ball is going. Like so:

Michigan's traps in this game weren't like that. They weren't one-off gotchas with a good shot of breaking off big yardage, but a staple. Michigan's first play: technically a trap, does not feel at all like a play likely to break big.

Maryland DE to top

That feels more like a power variation where Michigan moves the kickout guy to a DE and doubles the NT, and indeed on the rare occasions Maryland lined up with an even front with a bubble over one of the guards, Michigan's trap turned into a standard power/counter run:

right side of the M line, nobody passed up

When Maryland's DEs got wise to what Michigan was trying to do and then dove inside, Bredeson was able to adjust and seal that guy inside:

This is identical to what power usually looks like but Michigan is just moving it a gap inside.

Michigan did run the occasional trap I'd describe as a "regular-ass trap" on which the OL surges forward and relies on a TE to pick off the DE. This was close to working for a chunk but the DE had seen this a lot already and McKeon eats the contact instead of vice-versa:

TE #84 to bottom

The very next play saw Michigan run another trap but use Bredeson on the DE, and while the DE made the tackle he was doing so after three further yards:

So, yes, traps, but spiritually power/counter.

That is kind of interesting, though? Michigan's staple was gap-blocked?

Ah yup. There were six split zone plays, two inside zones, one stretch, and everything else was either gap-blocked or the gray area that is pin and pull. That pulls Michigan's ground game ever farther from what it was doing early in the season.

Harbaugh?

I mean… seems pretty Harbaugh. Al Borges is swearing up and down that Alabama did this stuff last year and that the current ground game isn't like last year's at all, but his reasoning is more about degrees than real differences:

Yes , they ran the pin and pull a year ago, but to say they've gone back to last years run game because of pin and pulls is b#(($*!t. They simply didn't run them enough to justify that statement. Alabama never lines up under center, but does run more pistol than Michigan does this year. Alabama features the one-back power and stretch plays more, and as I said before they take more down field shots with deep crossing routes. They pin and pull at about the same frequency Michigan did earlier in the year(or about as much as Michigan did last year) but it was not run as much as Michigan does now.

I don't agree with Borges's police work here at all. It is true that Michigan didn't run much PNP early in the year, because they had to radically overhaul their ground game after getting hammered against ND. First they went to a bunch of down G; PNP only emerged later. But against Penn State they ran six—they ran five in this game—and five of Michigan's first eight plays against Indiana were pin and pull. It sure as hell is a lot closer to last year's ground game now than it was early in the year.

Meanwhile I don't know why it would make anyone feel better if Josh Gattis had a struggling ground game and he didn't consult with Jim Harbaugh and Ed Warinner about what to do. If Borges is right that's an indictment of Gattis, not a defense.

Anyway.

So how'd the blocking go on our mostly gap-blocked day?

Here's that chart:

Offensive Line
Player	+	-	Total	Notes
Runyan	8	1	7	Very reliable.
Bredeson	11	0.5	10.5	Also very reliable.
Ruiz	7.5	5	2.5	Did some mashing but hiccups recurred.
Onwenu	8	3.5	4.5	Hold was unfortunate but legit. Otherwise, yeah.
Mayfield	2.5	3.5	-1	Kind of felt like the gameplan was to move him off harder blocks?
McKeon	8	2	6	Reclaimed TE1
Eubanks	4	1.5	2.5	Still decent.
All	1.5		1.5	Like a rabid chihuahua
Mason	2		2	On 3 snaps.
Hayes	1		1	Bonus TE, some RT.
TOTAL	53.5	17	76%
Backs
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Patterson		2	-2	Missed arc keep
McCaffrey	0.5		0.5	some wheels
Charbonnet	3.5	2	1.5	Missed a PNP cut, nice TD.
Turner		1	-1	Down too easy on his carry early.
Wilson	1		1	Nice cut for chunk.
Milton
Haskins	6.5		6.5	YAC machine.
TOTAL	10.5	5	5.5	ok I believe in Haskins
Receivers
Player	+	-	T	Notes
DPJ		2	-2	Arc block went awry.
Collins
Black
Bell	1		1	couple of flare screens
Johnson	0.5		0.5
Sainristil				TD out of nothin
Jackson		0.5	-0.5
TOTAL	1,5	2.5	-1	When you don't get long runs you don't get numbers here.
Metrics
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Protection	26	2	93%	Mayfield –2.
RPS	10	9	+1	Meh.

 

That is a giant blocking grade on which the YPC doesn't match. But here it's again Michigan's inability to carve out explosive plays. Michigan had two runs of 10 yards. One was the Wilson chunk run; the other was the near-free 14 yard Haskins TD on which it is dead certain Maryland busted entirely on its own. This was Michigan consistently running into –1 boxes without a QB run threat, blocking it up, and getting 4 yards.

Which, again, made a fair bit of sense given the game state. But if Michigan keeps running a no-keep, almost-no-RPO shotgun offense the running game is going to be mediocre at best.

How much of the lack of explosive plays is on the running backs?

Some? Charbonnet hasn't made a ton of capital-p Plays this season. He's been good about getting what's there and he's nifty at shifting in the hole but he hasn't ripped the top off anyone by dusting a tackle or two. And while this is not at all a trend or a think to be worried about, we did have a rare missed cut. I haven't had many opportunities to point out yards left on the field this year but here Charbonnet runs past Onwenu when Onwenu is never going to get to this LB:

A foot in the ground and a slash off Onwenu's butt is probably pretty good, though. If Michigan is going to continue relying on pin and pull as a staple the backs are going to have to be on the lookout for opportunities to cut upfield when opponents haul ass for the sideline.

Wilson did an excellent job of this on his chunk run, with an assist from Onwenu. This is a pin and pull on which Illinois cuts off the outside definitively. Onwenu makes this read before Wilson does, and while he doesn't end up doing a whole lot he still got a plus from me because he helps clear out a DT and I'm a sucker for OL making good post-snap decisions.

RG #50, RB #13

Pin and pull is more resilient than the crack sweep Michigan had to drop a couple of years ago but to make it work it'll have to cut inside a fair bit.

But I'd say it's mostly Michigan's inability to buy blockers back with their scheme.

Any blips of hope in that department?

Michigan can't quite get this to work but they're trying to incorporate their jet fake into the arc game. It came out twice in this game. On one Patterson missed a blinding keep read, especially since he has a blocker for the OLB he's reading…

…and that OLB forced Charbonnet into a one yard gain.

The second time McCaffrey did keep but DPJ brushed by the OLB and ended up getting caught between, neither sealing the edge or getting to the force guy fast enough to provide a lane. But it's a good idea.

Also maybe you could give it on the jet once this season.

Nice blocking number for McKeon?

 

McKeon barely got targeted in this game so the shift towards him as TE1 is obviously about blocking. Eubanks hasn't been bad; neither has he been good except one game where he got to kick around Illinois. McKeon does more to move guys when he makes contact:

TE #84 to bottom

Here his chip is forceful enough to turn a DE all the way inside:

TE #84 to top

Unfortunately Ruiz gives up a ton of ground and Bredeson can't get over the top to get a kickout, but if that doesn't happen that's a chunk largely because the edge got cleared. He's an upgrade as a blocker.

How did McCaffrey do?

Okay, and his season is approaching a game worth of data, although I need to go back and get a couple of misfires from the early games:

DYLAN MCCAFFREY

	Good				Neutral			Bad					Ovr
Game	DO	CA	SCR		PR	MA		BA	TA	IN	BR		DSR	PFF
Wisconsin	1	4	1							1	1*		75%	-
Notre Dame		2												-
Maryland		4									1*			-

I thought McCaffrey's day wasn't nearly as bad as the internet seemed to. Two of his four incompletions were a straight drop from Sainristil on an RPO that showed some catch and run promise and a rollout on which it looked like everyone was covered. I think this is McCaffrey's best option:

That's a PBU but it's a very low risk one, and I like his ability to get his shoulders around while rolling away from his throwing arm and lay in an accurate pass. It's possible someone's open deeper, but no replay so I filed that as a CA.

The other two were a weird play on which Michigan failed to sell play action and it looked like Collins cut off his route, which I didn't chart, and a BRX on which he nearly threw an INT. BRXs are bad; I think that colored people's opinions a bit too much.

On the ground McCaffrey had one successful run where he challenged a shuffle end…

…and one unsuccessful one discussed above in the jet arc section. I am cautiously optimistic about him if he does become the starter next year.

Are you going to forget Mr. Worldwide again?

Ah hell, crap, and hell. No. Notre Dame:

1. Jon Runyan Jr. Went from getting obliterated last year to a +10, 1 pass pro minus outing. Unlikely and cool for sure you guys. Being child of Jon Runyan is exactly like living under a highway overpass for 17 years.
2. Aidan Hutchinson. Cleaned up against ND's ground game and wiped out their screens, part of DL that had two(2!) minuses for the whole game.
3. Lavert Hill. Maybe should be way higher on these lists just because you never see him and when you do he's getting a PBU. Two in this game, no completions, standard.

Maryland:

1. Mike Danna. Created pop-up INT for Metellus, and helped out his DTs by digging ever further inside on power. If emerging from a MAC team to be a productive grad transfer DE isn't a cave-salamander-becomes-famous-rapper plot I've never heard of one.
2. Ben Bredeson. Pips the next guy on the list with a little more oomph; doesn't get the credit he deserves sometimes because he's just very very very reliable and Michigan can't rip off a big run through no fault of his.
3. Jon Runyan Jr. See Bredeson.

Standings:

8: Mike Onwenu
5: Khaleke Hudson, Jordan Glasgow
4: Mike Danna, Jon Runyan Jr
3: Zach Charbonnet, Mike Dwumfour
2: Carlo Kemp, Ronnie Bell, Josh Uche, Ben Bredeson, Aidan Hutchinson
1: Ryan Hayes, Josh Metellus, Nico Collins, Nick Eubanks, Lavert Hill

Heroes?

The OL in general but especially Runyan and Bredeson. McKeon, too. Collins did what he could and also something he couldn't.

Maybe not so heroic?

Patterson checked in with a 56% downfield success rate in fine conditions with one pressure type substance all game. The broadcast team was a total disaster, disinterested in the first quarter and worse as the game went on. Pore-o-vision director who chose sideline shots over replays.

What does it mean for MSU and beyond?

I want to believe, but I don't. Maybe Patterson plays out of his mind down the stretch but I'm having a hard time finding a reason to believe he will. Six bad balls on 22 attempts and 3 other questionable ones in this context is pretty disheartening.

I will believe in Haskins. Guy is tough to bring down, has good balance, and picks through holes well.

Harbauffense-esque. As it should be. Gattis was supposed to marry a functional ground game to a modern spread approach. Maybe that's what we'll get next year.

McKeon is a blocking upgrade. I don't think that's a surprise, but there it is.

Nico Collins is the most under-utilized Michigan player since Pierre Woods. You could say Funchess but Funchess was at least playing with an offensive line made of swiss cheese that had been used as target practice. Michigan's OL is putting up 80-90% protection metrics and Michigan still can't bomb it at Collins more than once per game.