unverified voracity
rashan gary
stephen spanellis
ben herbert
jordan poole
jordan poole off the charts swag
2018 michigan state
josh metellus
cofopoff
special teams
shea patterson
nfl draft
stu douglass
ncaa: the lawsuits
michigan state awful thing

Unverified Voracity is Rested, Fresh, Healthy Comment Count

Brian October 24th, 2018 at 1:14 PM

Yes sir I will subscribe to this newsletter. This Week In Schadenfreude spends all its time with Ohio State:

not gonna watch till mich

I need a break from this noncents. Gonna hang with my 2 boys or take the broad out for mini golf. I need to repriotoeoeize my life.

… I…

…

Okay. Thank you.

Gary details. Rashan Gary's mom decided to put all the cards on the table in re: Gary's injury. Executive summary: he got hurt before Notre Dame, aggravated it by falling on the shoulder in the Northwestern game, and was told that he needed 4-6 weeks for the injury to heal. Penn State is 5 weeks, Rutgers 6. He is not pulling a Bosa. The end.

A terrifying glimpse inside the program. Stephen Spanellis reveals Ben Herbert's mantra:

They seem to like the guy, at least? Enough to photoshop him into things?

No lies detected. Sterile giant fields surrounded by empty buildings and Buffalo Wild Wings, is what Jordan Poole just saw:

“I had never been to Michigan State before, and their campus was awful – it’s trash,” Poole said. “It was just dry.

There's actually a giant, interesting thread on the RCMB about this very thing dating back a couple years. Folks are openly envious of Ann Arbor's ability to put up new buildings, which… hoo boy, that says something about East Lansing NIMBYs.

Okay, here's a hype video. Needs more Metellus skipping but otherwise I will allow it.

Metellus grade. Michigan's safeties are one of only two spots on the defense that seem even a little permeable—DT is the other—but even there Michigan has a guy grading out very well per PFF:

S Josh Metellus, 76.7 Overall Grade

While coverage metrics aren’t typically the best to look at when discussing safety play, Metellus’ play in coverage is certainly deserving of highlighting here. He holds an absurd 5.7 passer rating allowed to opposing receivers, which leads all defensive backs with at least 135 snaps in coverage. He has not allowed a single touchdown this season to go with three interceptions and is allowing just 31.6% of passes thrown his way to be hauled in. In coverage from the slot, he’s allowed just a 13.8 passer rating and has two of his three picks.

That rating has to be giving Metellus credit for all his INTs like he was in coverage on those throws. He was not on two, which were deflected by David Long and Lawrence Marshall. So don't focus on the passer rating, focus on the grade, which is All Big Ten-level.

In other PFF stuff, Gary has dropped out of their first round and Devin Bush has slid to #32 on their draft board. The first is pretty obvious. The second… uh?

[After the JUMP: glacing owlishly]

Time to glance owlishly at playoff stuff. If Michigan can get by Penn State in two weeks only Indiana and Rutger stand between Michigan and a version of The Game likely to be a de facto playoff round of 16 game. We're close enough to the end of the season that folks are putting out the charts with the percentage chances of doing a thing. As always, the chances that folks lose are higher than you'd think:

Win probabilities for 0-loss college football teams

Alabama (8-0)
0 loss: 52%
1 loss: 38%
2+ losses: 10%

Clemson (7-0)
0 loss: 55%
1 loss: 35%
2+ losses: 10%

Notre Dame (7-0)
0 loss: 31%
1 loss: 42%
2+ losses: 27%

These projections are only for the regular season. If you add a conference title game against the highest-ranked potential champion in the opposite division, Alabama has a 66 percent win probability against Georgia, and Clemson has a 74 percent chance against Miami. So that means there’s about a 34 percent chance of Alabama reaching the finish line at 13-0, 41 percent for Clemson.

Connelly has Michigan getting out of the rest of the regular season without a loss at 34%, which is a hair behind Oklahoma(37%) amongst one-loss teams.

Special teams bounces back up. I like FEI's special teams approach better than S&P+ since I don't think success rates are applicable to events like punts where there are no first downs to gain, but FEI details don't come out until week seven since it doesn't incorporate the sophisticated projection scheme S&P+ does. It's week seven, and Michigan's special teams check in 8th. Details:

  • Nordin is 71st in FG efficiency. Astoundingly, Kentucky ranks 4th in the country in overall special teams and has the #130 kicker. Dude is 3/7 and those are mostly chip shots if he's averaging a whopping –1.5 points per kick(!!!).
  • Return efficiency is excellent in both phases. This just goes to show that kick return efficiency is all about whether you get a TD or not. Thomas's return against ND is the only Michigan return of note this year. DPJ and his merry band of guys who are ostentatiously not blocking you in the back are 14th in punt return efficiency.
  • Hart is 5th in punt efficiency.

I'd love to know what Hart did this offseason.

Patterson's draft status. NFL scouting types on Patterson:

Scouts see Patterson (68.6 percent completion percentage) as a mid-round pick, so sticking around would be wise. But his history portends him being on the move.

They're probably right. Patterson has a lot of tools but hasn't been seeing the field that well so far. Going into the year most people in the know expected Patterson to enter the draft if it was at all feasible and that should probably remain the expectation. But he is in that zone where there's a good case to return: if he refines those tools and has a big senior year he'll fly up draft boards, garnering both the additional money higher picks receive and the extra rope (potential) first round QBs get.

Stu Douglass has tales. Playing overseas can be wild:

It was an ugly game for us all around, but it didn’t take a turn to the wild until the middle of the 4th quarter. One of our guys landed on a Belgian fan after a foul on a fast break. As you can see he wasn’t exactly in a rush to get off the guy, and the fan didn’t like that. I’m not sure what he was thinking, but he decided to push the 6’9″ 240lbs Jon Holmes like the world’s toughest tough-guy. Hardos have zero awareness, and that’s why we love them.

Well, our fans didn’t appreciate that.

A timeout was called so I sat down on the bench and the team huddled around. I started to hear a ruckus going on, and as I looked over at the noise, I saw a chair fly over the horizon of my teammates’ heads. Coach tried to get us to focus in on what he was saying, but coach, there are chairs airborne.

The whole story there is worth reading. I wonder if the guys who just like to fight who populated European soccer stadiums have been priced out and now do smaller sports. When we talked to Scott Matzka last year he had a story about opposing fans laying down in front of their buses before a hockey game in Germany.

They gonna lose. Folks inside NCAA thinks it's about to take it on the chin in the latest anti-trust lawsuit that's been filed against them, and this is the big one—the one that seeks injunctive relief. IE: rules out the window.

One Power Five commissioner has already told CBS Sports of the Alston trial: "I think we're going to lose." …

"They're after a total free market," Bevilacqua said of the plaintiffs. "There's a lot of good models out there with pro sports. Half the revenue goes to labor. If you're talking about Power Five, college sports is about the size of the NBA, $8 billion a year. The NBA is paying their players $4 billion out of the $8 billion. These [college] guys are paid a scholarship. At some point, you make a deal and say, 'I can't give you 50 percent but, you know, I'll give you 10 or 15 percent.' That's $1 billion dollars." …

"[The NCAA is] playing the long game and hanging their hat on amateurism," Bevilacqua said. "Each time Nick Saban gets $10 million a year and an athlete gets [only] a scholarship, it further undercuts their argument.

"They're going to get routed. They're going to lose. If I was them, I would have cut a deal [with the plaintiffs] a long time ago."

Dennis Dodd speculates this will lead to a seismic round of realignment as various schools opt out of paying players. Hopefully one of them is Rutgers.

SALT THE EARTH. Maize and Blue Nation folows up  the game column with more. MSU just fired lawyers they have working with seven of their Nassar-implicated employees for defending their client in a way MSU didn't like. The article includes a rundown of all the garbage MSU has tried to pull to cover their own ass since Engler was hired:

Three days after a lawyer hired to defend William Strampel said criminal charges against the former Michigan State University dean were unfounded because he was only following orders from MSU's lawyers, the university fired his firm from representing six other MSU employees.

It's a move experts said raised concerns once again about whether the school was more worried about its reputation than the truth. It also sent a signal to law firms being paid by MSU to represent its employees in various lawsuits and criminal matters: Toe the company line or risk losing a lot of money.

"It fits the pattern on MSU under (former president Lou Anna) Simon and (current interim President John) Engler — just run everything through the lens of protecting the university first," said David Jaffe, an attorney specializing in compliance and the former vice president, general counsel and secretary of Guardian Industries Corp. of Auburn Hills, as well as former partner in the law firm of Honigman Miller Schwartz and Cohn in Detroit. Jaffe reviewed correspondence obtained by the Detroit Free Press under an open records request between MSU and and the law firm at the request of the Free Press.

That pattern includes Engler canceling an issue of the MSU alumni magazine that took an unflinching look at the Nassar scandal and replacing it with a version focused on an interview with him touting the positives at MSU. Engler and MSU administrators also drew fire for emails where they disparaged the survivors of Dr. Larry Nassar, the former MSU doctor accused of molesting more than 200 women and athletes, and for releasing personal counseling information about a sexual assault survivor who was suing the school. Simon drew fire for not attending the first day of the Nassar sentencing where victim after victim spoke and even for her resignation letter, where she blamed unnamed people for "politicizing" the issue.

Product of the program.

Etc.: Assistant gymnastics coach resigns after being caught having relations with a student in a car. Merrill Hoge's new CTE book is bad. Daily on Uche. Chengelis on DPJ. Caris Levert having a breakout season. OSU's #3 WR, Austin Mack, is potentially out until the bowl game after foot surgery.

Poole post-winner. Teske breakout? Cooper Marody called up to the Oilers, made NHL debut last night. Nebraska's gonna be fine. Rico Beard is a 50-year old child.

Comments

dragonchild

October 24th, 2018 at 1:45 PM ^

He hasn't been dominant.  (Don't get me wrong -- he's been good, but not a monster.)  This was supposed to be his blow-up year and instead he's played the whole season while injured.  So fact of the matter is that no one's seen his final form.  Which means that he has literally no "I'm a 1st-rounder" film from this season.

Now, yes, clearly he's been playing hurt, and we all know he's capable of much better if he's healthy.  But there's no sympathy in drafts; if you're injured you'll fall down the draft just as much as if you're not playing well.  So either way, it was going to happen.

Well, he's been resting, so this could all change in a few weeks if he comes back with a vengeance.

Joined: 10/13/2011

MGoPoints: 60910

BuckNekked

October 24th, 2018 at 7:07 PM ^

Gary is a different sort of cat. I wouldnt even try to guess what his intentions are after this season ends. It wouldnt surprise me to see a Chase-like decision. It wouldnt surprise me if he went pro. Speculating doesnt do anyone any good so Im not gonna engage.

Joined: 12/06/2013

MGoPoints: -1793

cletus318

October 24th, 2018 at 5:51 PM ^

You have to keep in mind that PFF does its mock draft based a ton on its own metrics. It's far more of a "here's what we think teams should do" opposed to "here's what we think is going to happen." Case in point, it has Justin Herbert as the only QB going in the top 20, which literally never happens.

Joined: 04/01/2016

MGoPoints: 3107

dragonchild

October 24th, 2018 at 1:37 PM ^

In other PFF stuff, Gary has dropped out of their first round and Devin Bush has slid to #32 on their draft board. The first is pretty obvious. The second… uh?

Bush has had a relatively quiet (for Bush) couple of weeks, hasn't he?  He's been asked to patrol the middle of the field more, and last week MSU's O-line was so awful that not much got to the linebacker level.

He's done nothing to earn dropping, but I'm sure other players have put out highlight reels in the meantime and these mock drafts are always "what have you done for me lately" affairs.

Joined: 10/13/2011

MGoPoints: 60910

dragonchild

October 24th, 2018 at 2:17 PM ^

I think I can live with that, sure.

But seriously, Patterson's issues with coverage is generally considered something that takes time to fix and in many cases just has QBs wash out of the league.  So even if he wraps up the season with a couple of good games, I think scouts would want more data, so the prudent move would be to come back.  Not that he owes anyone that, but Harbaugh could make him into a top ten pick if he keeps improving.

Rashan Gary, as much as I've love to have him back, has been physically limited so he can probably re-establish himself as a first-rounder by taking over The Game and tearing up the Combine.

Joined: 10/13/2011

MGoPoints: 60910

MGoStrength

October 24th, 2018 at 2:27 PM ^

But seriously, Patterson's issues with coverage is generally considered something that takes time to fix and in many cases just has QBs wash out of the league.  So even if he wraps up the season with a couple of good games, I think scouts would want more data, so the prudent move would be to come back.  Not that he owes anyone that, but Harbaugh could make him into a top ten pick if he keeps improving.

Yeah, agreed.  I would even go a step further and say it's largely a DNA, either you have it or you don't, skill.  I'll give Patterson the benefit of the doubt based off the system the ran at Ole Miss and this being his first season at UM making more complicated reads.  But, by comparison, Haskins needed zero college experience to step in and torch one of the top defenses in the league with his arm last year against UM and has continued to do so all year this season as well.

 

I really hope we have him for another year, because his combination of running and throwing is a great ability that I've always wanted in a UM QB and we've never quite had.  But, my hunch is he's ready to make some money.  If he returns next season and we get back one of the CBs I really like our chances next season.  

Joined: 07/29/2010

MGoPoints: 20002

GarMoe

October 24th, 2018 at 6:33 PM ^

Not sure if anyone has commented on this since the MSU game (most likely have) but Shea’s  comment post-game that “I’ve never been a part of something like this in my football career,” made me proud as hell.  After all, isn’t the SEC the be-all end-all of CFB?  /s.    Doesn’t Ole Miss have a rival?   Sure they do, but Big Ten football and the Big Ten rivalries, paerticularly to Michigan, is full on ManBall and you havent played it unless you’ve been part of a Big Ten rivalry like UM/msu.   For any recruits watching the post game interviews, Shea’s statement would go miles for us knowing he played well into his career in the SEC and yet still felt nothing as soul-defining until he transferred to the B10 and felt something as rewarding as that game.  Everything else is plastic banana stuff.

Joined: 03/29/2018

MGoPoints: 502

Sam1863

October 24th, 2018 at 2:01 PM ^

Let me add one more reason for Patterson to return - which I readily admit is pure feelingsball:

I believe I've heard several times that Shea always wanted to play for Michigan. Now he is, and things are going damn well. Consider how another year would go with this O-line (does anyone graduate?) under Warinner, and with these receivers, and with the talent you'll have in the backfield. It's your last year to play college ball, and the prospects for success (and for being better than a mid-rounder) are very good. Do you really want to give it up?

And here's one more suggestion: ask Mr. Winovich and Mr. Higdon if they wish they'd left early.

Joined: 04/27/2014

MGoPoints: 28880

joeyb

October 24th, 2018 at 2:51 PM ^

Our defense looks like it's ready to reload at this point. A starting DL of Paye, Solomon, Dwumfour, Uche looks like it is going to be just fine. We have guys that can fill in at LB, but it will be like DT this year where it is still an obvious step down, but just not a liability. We lose Watson and Kinnel in the secondary, but we have enough guys to step in that there should be basically no drop off. As we continue to develop 4* and 5* players, this defense will slowly lose these weak spots and become a more consistent, cohesive unit.

Honestly, from what I've seen of Shea and McCaffrey, QB is going to get an improvement next year regardless of whether Shea stays. RB is the only place that won't see improvement and that still has a lot of options to fall back on. If Shea decides to stay, he's walking into a better all-around team with a home schedule to die for. If he wants to stay and show what he can do while trying to win a championship, next year is the year.

Joined: 10/12/2008

MGoPoints: 16845

EGD

October 24th, 2018 at 5:48 PM ^

We haven’t seen next year’s corners other than Ambry and haven’t really seen how we’ll replace Bush—though Gil and Ross will both be back, so at th3 very least we’ll have two experienced ILBs.  But that’s pretty much it for question marks.  Any time you have to replace that much production there’s the risk of a drop off, but there’s plenty of reason to be confident with the way M has recruited and with how well the defense played in 2017 after losing almost the entire 2016 defense.

Joined: 09/16/2009

MGoPoints: 35199