Unverified Voracity Is Panda, Hammers Comment Count

Brian

So this happened. This is going to get out of control.

I'm warning you to brace yourselves for how out of hand this is going to get.

This is where we got involved.

And then Smoothitron from the top rope:

I hope you lashed yourself to the deck before reading this collection of tweets.

A coaching carousel on deck. At the midway point of the season it's looking like this could be an interesting December:

  • Les Miles is already gone from LSU.
  • Brian Kelly is 2-4 at Notre Dame, is definitely losing to a service academy, and is unlikely to make a bowl.
  • Charlie Strong is running out of rope at Texas, now 2-3 and 0-2 in the Big Twelve while playing horrendous defense.
  • Baylor still needs a long-term coach.
  • Oregon is 0-3 in the Pac 12 and may be thinking about pulling the trigger on Mark Helfrich.
  • Both LA schools have two conference losses already and sit at 3-3; wholesale collapse from one or the other isn't out of the question.

All of these schools will be pitching Tom Herman, and either all but one or all of them will end up disappointed. Once you get past Herman, up and coming candidates include... uh. Harbaugh acolyte Willie Taggart's turned USF around, PJ Fleck's itching to move up for anyone who's a boat enthusiast, and that's about it. Gonna be some weird guys getting head coaching jobs at major schools this offseason.

The situation in East Lansing. It's not good if you're a Spartan fan, but you're not no matter how much you're scouring the RCMB for hilarity and then emailing me when Google naturally responds by popping up MSU ads on this here site. (You know who you are. You are legion.) So it is good.

Bill Connelly had a deep dive into the decline from a team that was technically invited to the playoff to one that S&P+ currently has at 20% to make a bowl game. I jokingly referenced it in the game column but it deserves some actually attention. The problems in approximate order of severity:

  • The OL is a "sieve." This has led to some ugly rushing stats ("85th in Rushing S&P+, 101st in rushing success rate, only 18 rushes of 10-plus yards (119th)") despite having LJ Scott, who I continue to believe is the truth. It is also getting Tyler O'Connor sacked a ton.
  • The DL is a nonentity, deep into the triple digits in sack rate and largely responsible for a rushing S&P+ that is just as bad as their offenses's. This was predictable to some extent since MSU took not one but two grad transfers on the DL in an effort to shore up their line after Craig Evans and Montez Sweat got booted.
  • It's an old team not likely to have a midseason turnaround as the youth gets their heads on straight.

The numbers figure to get a bunch worse next week, when S&P+ finishes whittling away the preseason projections that still make up a portion of their rankings. Without those projections MSU, currently 60th, would be 84th. Even now S&P+ has Michigan a 25-point favorite(!!!) on the road in East Lansing.

Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the season?

A couple more things about MSU. Their depth chart this week features an OR between their top three QBs. Also, instagram sleuthing by iSportsDave seems to indicate that Riley Bullough is out for the season. Or possibly another one of their linebackers.

Weekly fancystats love us update. Michigan is now 85%+ to win each game before OSU and an 18-point favorite against Iowa, the toughest remaining game before Football Armageddon II. S&P+ sees that as a dead heat, with OSU getting a slight edge because the Game is in Columbus.

In other S&P superlatives, Michigan is #1 nationally in:

  • field position
  • opponent success rate (at 19% Michigan is giving up less than half the number of successful plays than an average D-I D)
  • points per trip allowed once the opposition gets inside the 40
  • rushing defense, rushing success rate, and adjusted line yards
  • passing defense, passing success rate, and adjusted sack rate
  • standard down D, success rate, and line yards per carry
  • passing down D (they're top five in every other passing down category but not #1, shame)
  • third down D
  • havoc rate

The D is on pace to be historically good.

Ross Fulton on OSU's (relative) struggles against Indiana. OSU still won comfortably, but under 400 yards against a hurry-up team like IU is a sign that the Buckeyes are indeed mortal. Ross Fulton examines why that was so:

The simplest explanation for Ohio State’s passing problems was that J.T. Barrett was off. ... As he admitted after the game, he again refused to take the open underneath routes. For instance, below he does not get the ball to Curtis Samuel out of his break.

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He instead tried to force mid-range passes. But such throws were often late and with too much velocity, leading to inaccuracy high and outside. ... The game became reminiscent of other contests where Barrett was off, such as Penn State in 2014 or Michigan State last year, when Barrett missed open deep throws. As Meyer reiterated in his Monday press conference, Ohio State’s offense is based upon running the football and hitting vertical shots off play-action. Without such completions, opponent safeties can play aggressively downhill, resulting in a lower rushing success rate and a less efficient offense.

Things went from bad to worse last year because Barrett was decidedly not off, hitting two heavily contested bombs. Even so, if Michigan can put the game on his passing chops their chance to win goes up a great deal.

Perspective. The Rutgers game continues to generate thinkpieces, like this one from Inside NU:

The Romans at the Battle of Cannae, for example, were outsmarted and then completely destroyed by Hannibal’s Carthaginians. Rome’s armies took a full decade to recover. At the English victory over the French in the Battle of Poitiers in 1356, the entire French army fell apart and the French king was captured. Significant parts of France would remain under English rule for nearly a century.

Michigan 78, Rutgers 0 is worse than any of that. At least the French could claim that they brought an army to Poitiers. At least the Romans can take pride in the fact they had a plan whatsoever, even if it was incredibly dumb. Rutgers could not do anything. It was immobilized through lack of competence. The closest historical comparison is the Battle of Ulm, in which Napoleon was able to capture a huge Austrian army simply through highly skilled movement over the course of three days. And even then, it’s hard to compare. It took Michigan three hours.

Yes, it's a very Northwestern piece. I can't wait for The Only Colors to write one through the lens of the greatest Jerry Springer episodes they've seen or participated in.

NLRB is coming at the NCAA again. With the O'Bannon case now finished with no clear victory either way, but the NCAA did take hit as an antitrust violator. The National Labor Relations Board has now handed down a ruling that refers to football players as employees and bans certain practices:

In an unprecedented foray into college sports, the National Labor Relations Board has declared that Northwestern University must eliminate "unlawful" rules governing football players and allow them greater freedom to express themselves. The ruling, which referred to players as employees, found that they must be freely allowed to post on social media, discuss issues of their health and safety, and speak with the media.

The new rules apply to the football programs at the 17 private universities that play in the FBS, including schools such as Notre Dame, Stanford and Baylor -- but not public universities.

This is not a big thing right now but might open the door to more seismic items.

(HT: Get The Picture.)

Etc.: Grant Newsome hopes to return next year. Peppers now #4 in Heisman odds. The Daily on that. Tracking Michigan-Union hockey in depth.

Comments

FreddieMercuryHayes

October 11th, 2016 at 3:37 PM ^

I don't know if I agree with that.  They only play UM once a year.  I think the issues are that they had some great co-ordinators for the entire Dantion era (Narduzzi mostly) which are gone, and then lack of elite recruiting is catching up.  They've out performed the rankings for sure, but every two star recruiting doesn't turn into a high NFL draft pick.  You can hit on 18 and get 21 four hands in a row, but you can only keep that strategy up for so long before you bust. 

AZBlue

October 11th, 2016 at 4:05 PM ^

I think the loss of Narduzzi as a recruiter may be as big a hit as losing him as a coach. I do not follow MSU recruiting much (outside of those that are M targets also.) but I don't know how many truly dynamic recruiters they have on staff. Narduzzi seems to be very good based on what he is doing at Pitt so far. Based on mentions from recruits, I don't all the guys onthe M stafff are great recruiters but they have both Harbaughs, Partridge, Wheatley etc to lead the charge in that area.

As long as I am rambling...I also think MSU might be having the same type of issues that we feel/felt Beilien has been having. You can't use the same pitch on a high 4-star or 5-star as you have used on the "coach 'em up" kids previously.

maize-blue

October 11th, 2016 at 3:10 PM ^

Also, UM is taking back the state. We're going to pull the rug out from underneath them in recruiting the home territory. When you combine that with the fact that they have zero recruiting momentum from making the playoff, it's difficult to see where the upswing will happen.

I think they are close falling down.

AZBlue

October 11th, 2016 at 3:51 PM ^

I think there were a few years that we lost the state outright over that period but the bigger failure was the loss of "control" of in-state recruiting. Pre-Dantonio and the "dark years" I believe that Michigan recruiting was closer to this year on average -- I.e. Favorite or strong contender for a majority of the top players with the greatest threats being outsiders..USC, ND, Bama, even OSU.

There will always some (non-Bullough) top kids that prefer MSU but not a high percentage. RR did a less than stellar job keeping relationships with Michigan HS coaches - probably a generous way to describe it - and M's on field failings combined with MSU's success opened the doors for them as well as OSU at Cass Tech etc. I think Hoke did a good job trying to reclaim the state until on-field failures slowed or stopped that progress. Jim has taken things back and each year going forward the on-field success and the diminishing credibility of the "he is gone in a year or two" claims by rivals will help M sustain a return to historical norms. (IMO)

Harbaugh will still have battle the recent history of the program for a few years as a lot of HS kids (like my nephew unfortunately) know no other reality than MSU being better the M on the gridiron. Like most other MSU fans, the CFB world for them only came into existence about 10 years ago. (Bazinga!!)

BlueinLansing

October 11th, 2016 at 2:48 PM ^

I was at the game Saturday against BYU, one LB had a recurring arm or shoulder issue though he stayed in the game and another #49 hurt his leg or hip early in the game and came out more than once for it and at one point was replaced.

My uncle who generally knows MSU personel very well had no idea who one kid was playing MLB in the middle of the second half.

Ronnie Kaye

October 11th, 2016 at 2:51 PM ^

For a guy who loves to hit MSU with "I'm too good to care about you" trolling, Brian seems to care about MSU a lot. At least on the rare occasions his predictions of doom for them come to fruition.

BlueMurph

October 11th, 2016 at 3:00 PM ^

If we don't have students in Panda costumes in the stands for the Illinois game, I will lose my faith in humanity.

That is freaking hysterical. Well done Ace and Smoothitron...

jmblue

October 11th, 2016 at 3:14 PM ^

If I'm reading that correctly, are coaches at private schools literally breaking the law if they forbid their players from using social media?

 

NRK

October 11th, 2016 at 4:43 PM ^

In short, the NLRB's stance is that you can have a social media policy which governs employee action on social media, as long as that policy meets certain requirements. Those requirements are the ones protected under the National Labor Relations Act (NLRA), which (among other things) allow employees to discuss terms and conditions of employment.

The policy also can't be so vague that it could be read by an employee to violate the NLRA. Right now, nearly every social media policy is failing that test, no matter how careful you are.

It's a huge issue for employers right now outside of the Northwestern case. Talk to any management/employer side lawyer and they'd probably share their thoughts on how egregious that NLRB is being on this among a wide variety of other cases (I'm totally not biased on this...but being allowed to call your boss an "asshole" and "f@#king crook" is not exactly beahvoir that should be protected under the act in my opinion (Link))

For more info on the NLRB's stance on social media you can check out the their site on this issue here: Link

 

To answer your specific question: Yes, based on the NLRB's position, an outright ban on use of social media would be an unfair labor practice. Practically, someone would have to bring a ULP charge, and usually the end result is a posting of a notice assuming there's not much more damages. While it is "unlawful" mostly there's not huge punitive measures under the NLRB as there are with some other laws.

Sambojangles

October 11th, 2016 at 3:16 PM ^

Would Kelly and Strong be candidates for any of the potentially open jobs? I know that this isn't the NFL where guys get fired then immediately hired by a new team, but it seems like their track records (and reason for failure at the current spot) should get them another high level job soon.

Feat of Clay

October 11th, 2016 at 3:24 PM ^

On reddit an MSU fan was bemoaning how they've fallen from playing in a national championship playoff game just last season to etc etc.

Alabama fan stepped in to say "Playing in" was a stretch and maybe we should all go with "participated in."

 

It was a nice moment.

Tuebor

October 11th, 2016 at 3:33 PM ^

I can't wait until October 29.  It has been a long time since I've thought that we should win and not just that we could win.  Probably since 2007 to be exact.  If we lose this year I'll be disappointed beyond just losing to a rival but rather for losing to a team that we should beat by 10+ points.

NRK

October 11th, 2016 at 4:24 PM ^

Don't read too much into the NLRB Advice Memorandum -

For starters, Northwestern modified their policies which really makes a large portion of it moot, - but this gives the NLRB a great opportunity to instead speak to a larger audience on topics that already are aggressively pursuing all private employers on: 

  • social media policies (the NLRB will almost universally find some fault with every social media policy it reviews)
  • Public comments by employees (more on the employee v student issue below)
  • Requirements for demeanor in comments ("positive" "negative", "respectful" etc.) 
  • Requirements of confidentiality

Each of these issues are very hot button issues for the NLRB right now, which they are aggressively attempting to flex their muscle on with private non-unionized employers. 

The memo also includes the statement that Northwestern modified its rules "although still maintaining that athletic scholarship football players are not employees under the NLRA." The memo clearly contains the caveat that the Division of Advice "for purposes of this memorandum, [assumes] that Northwestern’s scholarship football players are statutory employees." That deos not mean they are necessarily supported the Ohr finding, it means they wanted to make a point of these policies.

Advice Memos on NLRB can be found here: Link

Direct Download of PDF Memo Can be found here: Link

 

While the NLRB declined jurisdiction in the CAPA (Northwestern) representation case it did throw a huge amount of shade at that concept where they feel they have no guidance (practically begging Congress to address it). There is a lot of work to be done if you want the NLRB to take action there and the giant hurdle they see (namely, that there are lot more public universities over which they lack jurisdiction than private universities) may never be resolved:

[I]t would not effectuate the policies of the Act to assert jurisdiction. Our decision is primarily premised on a finding that, because of the nature of sports leagues (namely the control exercised by the leagues over the individual teams) and the composition and structure of FBS football (in which the overwhelming majority of competitors are public colleges and universities over which the Board cannot assert jurisdiction), it would not promote stability in labor relations to assert jurisdiction in this case.

We emphasize that this case involves novel and unique circumstances. The Board has never before been asked to assert jurisdiction in a case involving college football players, or college athletes of any kind. There has never been a petition for representation before the Board in a unit of a single college team or, for that matter, a group of college teams. And the scholarship players do not fit into any analytical framework that the Board has used in cases involving other types of students or athletes. In this regard, the scholarship players bear little resemblance to the graduate student assistants or student janitors and cafeteria workers whose employee status the Board has considered in other cases.
 
The fact that the scholarship players are students who are also athletes receiving a scholarship to participate in what has traditionally been regarded as an extracurricular activity (albeit a nationally prominent and extraordinarily lucrative one for many universities, conferences, and the NCAA) materially sets them apart from the Board’s student precedent.
 
Yet at the same time, the scholarship players are unlike athletes in undisputedly professional leagues, given that the scholarship players are required, inter alia, to be enrolled full time as students and meet various academic requirements, and they are prohibited by NCAA regulations from engaging in many of the types of activities that professional athletes are free to engage in, such as profiting from the use of their names or likenesses.
 
Moreover, as explained below, even if scholarship players were regarded as analogous to players for professional sports teams who are considered employees for purposes of collective bargaining, such bargaining has never involved a bargaining unit consisting of a single team’s players, where the players for competing teams were unrepresented or entirely outside the Board’s jurisdiction.
 

Just as the nature of league sports and the NCAA’s oversight renders individual team bargaining problematic, the way that FBS football itself is structured and the nature of the colleges and universities involved strongly suggest that asserting jurisdiction in this case would not promote stability in labor relations. Despite the similarities between FBS football and professional sports leagues, FBS is also a markedly different type of enterprise. In particular, of the roughly 125 colleges and universities that participate in FBS football, all but are state-run institutions. As a result, the Board cannot assert jurisdiction over the vast majority of FBS teams because they are not operated by “employers” within the meaning of Section 2(2) of the Act.

 

 

charblue.

October 11th, 2016 at 4:26 PM ^

of Michigan beastly beating Rutgers at their place on Recruit Night and turning the NJ recruit distespect issue on its ear, but whether Rutgers is seen as being totally awful and Michigan somewhat better, it was an eye-opener for even UM followers.

Not because this wasn't expected but because the expected was so thoroughly efficient. And that is the thing about this team as people unwind the numbers and begin to parse them in comparison to others, and discover this: This team does its job on both sides of the ball with tremendous efficiency. That is why the numbers aren't remarkable for any idividual on this team and why Peppers as dynamic and explosive as he is, a piston-driven cog always in overdrive, whose exploits deserve the blow-up passion of an unrequieted star who pushes team, team, team at every opportunity, and yet plays the game with an unabashed desire and enthusiasm in limited comparison to mankind, he just plays the game at a level we could only wish to extrapolate for one more year.

Is he a Heisman challenger; ARE  YOU KIDDING ME? Is this defense good? ARE YOU KIDDING ME.

Nobody made those kids play like that the other night. They decided to do that. Sometimes teams just want to show what they can do and then after it happens we are amazed.

The crucible is always this: Fine, Great, We believe in You. Now, do it like this when it REALLY MATTERS! And you know what, I think they will. Because this team discovered the other night how good it really can be. And it's not about anybody, but all of them. Even No. 5 knows that. And that's what really makes him special.

MGoBlueMyself

October 11th, 2016 at 11:12 PM ^

Couldn't help but flip through a sparty BYU game open thread. Main themes consisted of:

  • We don't blame Mark Dantonia, but...
  • He hires too many buddies as coaches
  • Fuck Dave Warner & Jim Bollman, they need to go
  • We miss Narduzzi 
  • Connor Cook hid the poor offensive strategy and Many of them saw this coming, because
  • Seriously, FUCK DAVE WARNER
  • This is the worst moment ever...
  • Oh yeah? Wait until Harbaugh comes and takes an 80 pt dump on us
  • We're down 24 now. run the ball again, Warner
  • O'Connor not the problem, but season is fucked, so...TERRY! TERRY!
  • Int....fuck. Terry sucks. Where's Lewerke? Might as well get him some reps

Still expect a tough game. But looking forward to Oct. 29th 

dragonchild

October 12th, 2016 at 6:37 AM ^

  • We don't blame Brady Hoke (well OK we do), but...
  • He hires too many buddies as coaches
  • Fuck Al Borges & Darrell Funk, they need to go
  • We miss RichRod
  • Denard Robinson hid the poor offensive strategy and Many of them saw this coming, because
  • Seriously, FUCK AL BORGES
  • This is the worst moment ever...
  • Oh yeah? Wait until Meyer comes and takes an 80 pt dump on us
  • We're down 24 now. run the ball again, Borges
  • Denard not the problem, but season is fucked, so...DEVIN! DEVIN!
  • Int....fuck. Devin sucks. Where's Morris? Might as well get him some rep

I'm glad that's in the rear view mirror.  I would almost feel sorry for them, if they weren't such insufferable jerks that handled MSU's heyday with all the class of third-world mercenaries that carjacked a beer truck.

MGoBlueMyself

October 12th, 2016 at 9:55 AM ^

Excellent point. that's why the left side of my face went numb as I was reading it. [shudders]

There were at least a couple of wise elders who, when withing-last-7-years spartan fan was lementing about "how this could happen so fast to an elite program like MSU," chimed in "uh, this was life pre-Dantonio, young one."