Unverified Voracity Flew To South Bend Comment Count

Brian

Sea of red. Georgia played Notre Dame last weekend and this is what it looked like:

image

Old friend of the blog Braves and Birds has an article about this remarkable screenshot, pointing out that this was literally a once in a lifetime opportunity for Georgia fans and they reacted accordingly. Somewhat similar scenes might play out if other fanbases were afforded an opportunity to go see a college football cathedral instead of a sterile NFL stadium that still smelled of Phil Simms:

...the reaction of Dawg fans to the chance to travel to South Bend is a reminder that there is huge, untapped demand among big college football fan bases to see their teams play other elite programs on the road and not at NFL stadiums.

One way to illustrate this point is to look at how the most popular programs have never visited one another. Here are the top 10 in attendance from 2016: Michigan, Ohio State, Texas A&M, Alabama, LSU, Tennessee, Penn State, Texas, Georgia, and Nebraska. There are 90 potential home-and-home combinations among those teams. In over a century of football, 33 of these matchups have never happened. That’s a bevy of road trips that big fan bases have never gotten to take.

I say "somewhat" because Notre Dame is especially vulnerable to this kind of takeover because of the nature of their fanbase and ticketing. Large chunks of the fanbase merely put their names in a lottery for certain games annually. The proportion of season ticket holders is (probably) much lower than other schools due to the national nature of ND's fanbase. Also these fans have a lot to pay attention to, what with the Yankees, Duke, and Manchester United all existing. With Notre Dame at a low ebb it might make sense for a frontrunner in NYC to sell his tickets in a way that it doesn't for someone who shows up to every game every year.

Unfortunately irrelevant. Oklahoma took OSU to the woodshed in their own building on Saturday. This was fun, but as I was watching it I was struck by how irrelevant it was for Michigan's chances down the road. Oklahoma's offense is built to neutralize defensive line advantages by using a metric ton of misdirection and the threat of the QB's legs. Ian Boyd has a breakdown of what happened, nearly all of which is unreplicable by Michigan—at least as they stand now.

Boyd accidentally twists the knife a bit at the end:

It pays to have a senior QB going on four years of starting, with a knack for playmaking off the cuff, when you are trying to get after a top-five opponent on the road.

Michigan can't get their QB to the OSU game healthy about half the time and never when he's a senior.

If it doesn't make sense it's probably not true. Basic advice for basic columnists, but apparently necessary:

SB Nation did a fine job reporting the contents of Lewis' testimony to the NCAA a couple of weeks ago, but it may have buried the lead.

Within the piece, Lewis' mother Tina Henderson told a former Ole Miss assistant that LSU had offered $650,000 for the services of her son.

If even close to the truth, that amount of money changes everything we know about cheating in college athletics. If even close to the truth, this case isn't so much about Ole Miss cheating but the lengths any wrongdoer would be willing to go.

And there is reason to believe $650,000 is close to the truth. I checked with the story's author, Steven Godfrey, and he said confirmed the figure wasn't a typo on his part or the person transcribing the testimony.

Instead we are supposed to believe that Leo Lewis took barely more than 10% of that to play for Mississippi State. The inclusion of the LSU number throws that whole article into doubt, because it makes it look like Godfrey is just repeating what people tell him without sanity checking anything. IE, Godfrey is being Steven Godfrey.

If LSU genuinely offered over a half-million dollars for Leo Lewis, 1) he'd be at LSU and 2) LSU's hypothetical budget for their #5 2015 class is... what, ten million dollars? Of private money? Cumong man.

Some Speight numbers. Tom VanHaaren has some bins to put Speight throws in

Facing blitzes, Speight completed just over 33 percent of his throws, as opposed to completing 61.1 percent with no pressure. On the season, he's completing just over 51.9 percent of his passes, with three touchdowns and two interceptions. ...

Through two games when Speight is passing in the middle of the field between the numbers, he has completed 76.4 percent of his passes for 396 yards. Outside the numbers on the left and right side of the field, when out of the pocket, Speight only has completed 10 percent of his passes for 6 yards.

The first paragraph above does help paint a picture of a guy who gets sped up and loses his mechanics; that latter bin is almost all last resort scramble drill stuff, I'd imagine. Also I see "10 percent" in a paragraph with "76.4 percent" and assume that's exactly ten throws. Still very limited data there.

Out. Donovan Jeter will miss the season with an injury. Jeter had bulked up to 290 and was pushing for time at three tech—3-3-5 nose 50% of the time now, I guess. That was the one spot on the front that could sustain a hit with Dwumfour and Marshall providing additional, non-true-freshman depth.

I guess it was the gunners after all. Harbaugh on the DPJ punt follies:

"We got some things fixed there," Harbaugh said. "It wasn't Donovan Peoples -- when we watched the film, these gunners got out too fast. And then they're making their block next to Donovan."

He didn't have an opportunity to field a couple of those punts because of his own teammates. The last one he had an opportunity on was very very bad and on him since there was no teammate in the area; in the stands we speculated that he'd lost it in the sun.

Harbaugh says DPJ will be back out there because he is not a "mistake repeater."

Another pronunciation note. I am bad at pronouncing things, but I can't be held responsible for "McCune" when it's not spelled like that. I am coping. Thank you for your cards and letters. Similarly, Tyree Kinnel:

"It's Kinn-ill," Kinnel said Monday night on the "Inside Michigan Football" radio show. "A lot of people say Ka-nell. It's been like that all of my life, so I'm used to it."

Life is a struggle, and never more so than when you're saying something out loud that you've mostly—or only—read before. Or trying to say Rod Gilmore's name more than once.

Etc.: The Power Rank on randomness. Harbaugh, decorous. Study Hall stat profiles up. Exit 2019 hockey commit Alec Regula to the OHL. He was a midround pick maybe, so not a disaster. Indiana's OL, on the other hand, is a disaster. Mason Cole on his decision to return. If you want some more fun OU-OSU numbers. Booing: for jerks. This isn't an NFL game, jerks!

Jim Delany is absolutely shameless and obviously published this during football season because I'm too busy to eviscerate this jackalope.

Comments

oriental andrew

September 12th, 2017 at 1:34 PM ^

If only the Braves had played at Wrigley this weekend instead of the previous weekend, it would have been the perfect Atlanta sports fan weekend in Chicago(ish). Can you imagine:

Braves@Cubs, Georgia@nd, Falcons@Bears all in one weekend? 

evenyoubrutus

September 12th, 2017 at 1:03 PM ^

"Also these [Notre Dame] fans have a lot to pay attention to, what with the Yankees, Duke, and Manchester United all existing" How brilliant a line is that? I actually do have that friend who is a huge Yankees and Duke fan - even has jerseys and hats and all kinds of apparel, and indeed he is a ND fan as well. Oh, and he grew up in SE Michigan.

southern_blue_fan93

September 12th, 2017 at 1:42 PM ^

As someone who became a Premier League fan years ago there were only a few games available for viewing.  As such, the team that I was able to watch the most and played very attractive soccer was Manchester United. The Red Devils have a lot in common with Michigan for tradition, northern location and a fiercely loyal and diverse fanbase.

southern_blue_fan93

September 12th, 2017 at 7:02 PM ^

Learning players, history of the club (like the tragedy that led to Busby's Babes), and enjoying watching some of the greatest homegrown players like the Class of 92 means that I enjoy my soccer experience every bit as much as my school.  Now that my hometown has a club I will be fully supporting and rooting the Atlanta United FC as well.  If you knew the history and tradition of the club you would understand more how United would feel very familiar to Michigan fans.

MGlobules

September 12th, 2017 at 1:18 PM ^

And when you do it. . . just think of yourself as the enemy of your own football team.

"It kind of infuriates us as a group because it's like, 'That is our quarterback,'" Hill said. "But at the same time, we are just going to go out and play. When we ballin' and everything is going good, people that say Wilton was doing this and that, don't jump on the bandwagon then. If you want to be a criticizer now, then stay a criticizer. Don't jump on the bandwagon when we get rolling."

The sense of entitlement is unreal. 

gbdub

September 12th, 2017 at 1:42 PM ^

It's actually kind of dumb. You're demanding that fans be rational and keep things in perspective when things go poorly, but still expect them to be super excited and loud when things go well. You're expecting them to be emotionally invested, conditional on how the team is playing.

They're called "fanatics" for a reason.

Actually I think booing is in some sense a good sign, because it means the fans still care. They still have hope. When you should really start worrying is when the stop booing... and stop showing up at all. Or showing up with paper bags on their heads.

I don't like booing the team, but I think the message last Saturday was less "you guys suck" and more "you guys are better than this - get your heads in the game!" Which is a bit cruel to a bunch of 18-22 year olds, but it's got a baseline of optimism?

/Devil's Advocate

MGlobules

September 12th, 2017 at 3:24 PM ^

In year three of the Harbaugh era, after two ten win seasons? You need a reason to "still" care? You can do better than that. As if there weren't 100 other ways to show you "still" care than booing a bunch of 18-22 year olds because they're not connecting enough passes for your entitled behind. (Or your betting line.) Hope you have got some better argument than this. 

gbdub

September 12th, 2017 at 5:24 PM ^

First, you missed my "devils advocate" line, second, you missed my point.

People boo for the same reason they cheer: they are emotionally invested in the team. They are happy when the team does well, and upset when the team does poorly. Basically you're expecting fans to be emotional if the team is doing well, but not be emotional when the team looks sloppy and unfocused.

Now it would be better if people had the self control to not boo the team, but again: you want them controlled when things are bad, but uncontrolled when things are good. This is asking a lot. Literally no fan is just is excited by crappy performances as they are by good ones.

And anyway, are the people booing in the stands any worse than the people ragging on Speight in these threads?

Rabbit21

September 12th, 2017 at 1:54 PM ^

So let me get this straight: You don't want as many people as possible caring about the team, so the cheers aren't as loud when things go right.  Somehow I doubt thats what everyone really wants, but go ahead and keep up the internet tough-guying.  

For the record, I wasn't there, didn;t boo and probably wouldn't, but this finger pointing is a supremely stupid argument.

Rabbit21

September 13th, 2017 at 3:29 PM ^

Hmmm... My favorite "I don't have a counterargument, but don't like what you wrote, so I'll write something vaguely insulting and pretend I can't be bothered to engage."

Let's try this:

Booing when frustrating is rude, but it doesn't make someone unworthy of being a fan.  Your attitude stinks of holier than thou, internet tough guy and is a bad look.  That better?

m1jjb00

September 12th, 2017 at 1:18 PM ^

Not a useful stat in isolation.  Is 33% bad, mediocre, ok?  I don't know. I can judge percentage completions in general because I've seen a lot of them.  I have an idea of the mean, even the distribution.  But I don't have the same sense of the distribution conditional on facing a blitz. Point being that you can't just apply your idea of the general benchmark to the conditional statistic. /rant

 

stephenrjking

September 12th, 2017 at 1:18 PM ^

This point came up in a board thread, but while the sample size is small the scrambling issue is perplexing, because I recall Speight being quite good at improvising and throwing on the move last year (though I'd be happy to be corrected by actual stats). 

But it makes me wonder if the inexperience of our receivers plays a factor here. Darboh, Chesson, and Butt were all seniors with both experience and chemistry. The young guys are an upgrade in athleticism, but perhaps they aren't as good at moving when Speight scrambles and it's time to improvise. If they aren't getting open, he won't be getting good options.

Just a theory at this point.

skegemogpoint

September 12th, 2017 at 1:30 PM ^

I love this screen shot almost as much as I loved how UGA fans overtook the Irish in their own stadium.  Reminiscent of how NEB did same about a decade or so ago.  

Michigan fans should pay up to do same next season when we waltz into South Bend and skull fucx the Leprechaun.

oriental andrew

September 12th, 2017 at 1:37 PM ^

First, is it just me or does that notre dame cheerleader on the jumbotron have a goatee? 

Second, maybe Leo Lewis's mom said, "Six hundred fify, thousand" like between 650 and 1,000; not 650,000, and it was just misunderstood. 650k is just absurd. 

Ty Butterfield

September 12th, 2017 at 1:38 PM ^

I swear Michigan usual limps into the OSU game at the end of the season and is out of gas. OSU always works out the kinks by that final game. I know everyone hates David Brandon, but moving The Game to October may not have been such a bad idea.

TrueBlue2003

September 12th, 2017 at 3:27 PM ^

there are more games in which we've exceeded expectations given regular seasons results in The Game (pretty much every game in the 90s, every game under Hoke, except the win, shockingly).  It's at the end of the season for both teams and both teams are affected by the timing equally.

Fort Wayne Blue

September 12th, 2017 at 1:39 PM ^

I used to live just outside of South Bend, and went to a handful of games there. Looking at the picture of the sea of read there, I have 2 thoughts.

1.] The seats above the tunnels in that part of the building are the vistor alotment. And while its a massave away fan section, most of the games I went to there had a large visitor group.

2.] I went to the Utah game in 2010 there, and almost that whole end of the building was red. So this is not a unique occurance there. This was most likely helped out by the size of the UGA fanbase, and the uniqueness of a Notre Dame game for them.

bronxblue

September 12th, 2017 at 1:39 PM ^

Godfrey is just repeating what people tell him without sanity checking anything. IE, Godfrey is being Steven Godfrey.

Sometimes that thing quacking is really just a duck. I stopped listening to PAPN over the offseason specifically because I found him beyond condescending and the type of faux "smart" that columnists embody where they say something wrong and then say "people I know in the administration" or "sources I got when I was embedded" support it. I have a hard time believing any school or booster is going to drop $650k on a recruit. If you have that money, you know enough about sports to know a freaking linebacker isn't worth anywhere close to that.

bronxblue

September 12th, 2017 at 2:15 PM ^

I just remember some podcast (probably over a year ago) where he said "embedded" and "people I talk to on staffs" like a dozen times when discussing LSU or something, and in the end he came to the conclusion that Ed Orgeron was going to try to be himself at LSU and win football games.  And then did something where he basically said people should stop shitting on PSU because the fans get that Sandusky was bad but want to move on, and also they are crazy there and you shouldn't take them seriously.  It was just weird.  

He's a guy without a niche - he's not a numbers guy and he isn't a magician with language or storytelling.  So he sits in meetings at schools, gets fed a bunch of boilterplate PR, then reports it as fact because the partisan fans will eat it up and everyone else will tell him he's wrong.  And as we've learned, clicks are clicks.

MadMatt

September 12th, 2017 at 2:11 PM ^

To summarize what he said, Delany stated the Div 1 athletes are "educated not exploited" for the following reasons:

- Hardly any Div 1 athletes play professionally; therefore, most are preparing for life after sports. (He tosses around some numbers, but the definition of his data set is so loose that they are fairly meaningless.  Regardless, it is true that very few people get paid to play professionally.)

- Although colleges generate revenue from televised games, paying athletes will end college athletics as we know it.  (Again, which athletes is he counting to reach this conclusion?  However, you can't wish away Title 9 just by asserting that ahtletes in "revenue sports" will be treated differently.)

- The value of free tuition, room & board, etc. is greater than zero.  Athletes graduate debt free; other students borrow a lot of money.  Also, college graduates earn more than high school only graduates.

- Athletes graduate at a slightly higher rate than non-athlete students, and they are better prepared for life after graduation.

Anti-Delany: the hypocracy about the money in college athletics is rank, and Delany deserves every bit of scorn Brian can heap upon him over this point.  The Universities in the major Conferences rake in Billions (with a B) of dollars over several years.  If the school is a State run institution, its head football coach is making an order of magnitude higher salary that any other government employee, and his principle assistants are # 2-6 or so on the list.  Everyone associated with the enterprise gets paid for their work, except the people actually playing the game.  The only way that happens is because the NCAA artificially says you can't pay the athletes, and therefore all the money gets spent in an escalating arms race to have the best of EVERYTHING else.  The only 2% turn pro arguement is a distraction.  So what?  You're generating buckets of revenue from their services.  The players' "residual value" as professional athletes is irrelevant.  Delany's position as the head of a major Conference is like CEO of a charity spending all the money on his salary and perks for the full time professional staff because the charity's charter says it can't pay the volunteers who do the actual benevolent work.

Where Delany has a partially correct point: for the reasons stated above, paying the athletes some money clearly need not end college athletics as we know it.  However, you can't say that means only football players, with maybe some (i.e. male) basketball players included, because we think these are the sports turning a profit.  The NCAA, largely because Title 9 forced them to do so, sees no differences in scholarship athletes.  The deal is that some sports at some schools generate a lot of money, and that gets spread around to pay for the facilities and education of all their scholarship athletes.  In the Power 5 schools, there is money to sweeten the deal even if you have to include every sport.  Moreover, I couldn't care less if that means Whatsamatta U in the Rocky Coastal Conference has to step down to Div 2.  (For one thing, trying to compete in Div 1 "revenue" sports for new and/or marginal programs is one of the best ways know to man for losing money in large quantities.)  But it's way more complicated than the people hollerin' "pay the players" would have you believe.

Also partial credit: the value of a scholarship is clearly more than zero, and many athletes take full advange of it to get an education debt free.  However, that is mitigated somewhat.  The demands of big time athletics do limit choices in terms of feasible majors, choice of courses, and lost opportunities (e.g. internships, student teaching, studying overseas).  More to the point, there are some athletes in college whose academics are so woeful that they cannot get any meaningful education at the university they are attending.  Sure, they may shuffle through a mish-mash of courses that keep them eligible, but do they graduate, and even if they do, will the degree actually help them after college?  So, a scholarship has value, but not everyone is able to benefit from it.

More ridiculousness: Delany says look how well our graduates do after college.  Well woop-de-frickin'-doo, do you think that alum's hard work in the 20 years since graduating might have had a little something to do with it?  This is like Jabrill Peppers' Pee Wee football coach taking credit for his pro career.  C'mon man, and the agument over how much someone makes over the course of his/her career sounds a bit like a loan shark saying hey, they'll be able to afford me bleeding them dry.  (Yeah, student debt issues are leaking into my argument.)

So I would say Delany's article is completely clueless only some of the time, and semi-clueless the other part.  He has some valid points, but he is the worst advocate in the world for getting people to listen to them.

hailtothevictors08

September 12th, 2017 at 2:26 PM ^

Why people consider being a Man U fan worse than a City fan (ohh cool, you discovered soccer 5-10 years ago and like the newbie who outspends people), a Chelsea fan (oh cool, you cheer for for the famous London team who literally still this season have fans singing antisemitic songs), an Arsenal or Liverpool fan (I cheer for a different famous, really good team from a big city), a Real or Barca fan (I cheer for 1 of the two best players on the planet for ten years straight, or a Bayern fan (I like knowing my team will win the title with a higher probability than Bama in the SEC west).

 
Look, as Americans, we all choose a team, and if we want them to every have a shot at winning, we naturally have to front run a bit. This is ok because in my book because none of us have a local team. 
 
(So ya, Glory Gory Man United)

Rufus X

September 12th, 2017 at 3:28 PM ^

One mention of one soccer team in one paragraph of one UV column in the middle of football season does not mean anyone cares about your hot take on the unfair nature of calling some random soccer team's fan frontrunners.  

Not that anyone cared before.

 

 

 

cue multiple "soccer guy" posts calling me "stupid american" for daring to call another soccer fan out in 3...  2... 1...

southern_blue_fan93

September 12th, 2017 at 7:10 PM ^

you are absolutely correct that most Americans don't have any connection to "their" team in Europe.  Personally I think there are many parrallels between Michigan and ManU.  Both have a great tradition of winning, both have close bitter rivals (and O$U and LIverpool also have a lot in common) and both have recent experience with less than succesful head coaching changes. 

Enjoy the soon to be heard chants for "21 times' as we leave L'Pool further behind.

 

TrueBlue2003

September 12th, 2017 at 3:07 PM ^

you pretty emphatically continued to support the regime's offense as sufficiently confusing/modern, but reading this commentary on OU's offense, it seems like maybe we're reaching the end of the honeymoon.

When you can run an offense that neutralizes the strengths of the defensive line (thus making it easier on your O line), and makes your skill position players plug and play, and gives your QB blitheringly wide open targets...sigh.

We were the 40th best offense in S&P+ last year despite a lot of upperclassmen on the line and NFL players at the skill positions.  If the excuse is that we need an elite QB or elite o line, isn't that an argument against the offense we run? When teams like Pitt, Texas Tech, California, South Florida with much less talent have top ten offenses and we barely have a top 40....just sayin.