Three Up, Three Down: Hoops Edition
Last week I introduced this weekly column that aims to expand on weekly trends for the basketball team relative to season expectations or progression/regression as compared to prior weeks.
In short, you can use this analysis as sort of a stock report for the hoops squad in terms of individual + team performance, sets and lineups.
THREE UP
Dickinson + Diabate.....together. Off-season chatter focused on potential spacing issues with a Hunter/Moussa tandem at the same time. While that concern has some validity, most failed to account for the other end of the court.
The possession below against UNLV reflects the peak of this combination. Diabate's size/length/combination wreaks havoc defensively on the perimeter or the paint, while using high-low sets alleviates the spacing concerns offensively.
To put this lineup into perspective, Michigan was a +13 against UNLV with Hunter/Moussa sharing the court and a net zero when they did not. Juwan Howard isn't getting much offense from the Houstan/Johns/Williams trio, so this is absolutely worth exploring when considering the massive upgrade Diabate gives you defensively.
DeVante Jones' playmaking. The transfer PG has experienced ups and downs (more about that later), but I think folks are really underestimating how good he's been as an on-ball shot-creator. He's averaging 4.6 assists per game with a 30.5(!) assist rate so far.
He's been superb in ballscreens as a playmaker for others, hitting Dickinson/Diabate on short-rolls + rim-runs for easy baskets. He's also starting to flash the floater that was a big part of his scoring package at Coastal Carolina. The Wolverines desperately need him on the court for 32-35 minutes per game right now because his playmaking allows Eli Brooks to be utilized as a floor-spacing shooter.
Moussa Diabate's ability to stretch the floor. Slim pickings for this week, but Diabate has now hit jumpers in from 18-21 feet in two consecutive games. As I mentioned in my Hello Post, Moussa flashed as a perimeter shotmaker at IMG so this is no surprise to me.
If Moussa can start hitting the occasional shot from distance, it really unlocks this team's potential from an offensive standpoint. Diabate gives you much more defensively than any of the Johns/Houstan/Williams trio, so if he's hitting outside jumpers at even an adequate clip, he simply has to play close to 30 minutes a night to optimize this team.
[AFTER THE JUMP, treys down]
THREE DOWN
The silliness from DeVante Jones. Michigan's PG has a propensity to commit 2-3 head-scratching plays per game that can come on either end. He's a bit too handsy + aggressive on defense at times, and it has cost him and the team early in the season. Against Arizona, he lead the charge in transition with no numbers advantage and poor spacing (Williams did not run wide), while putting his head down like a raging bull before picking up an offensive call. As mentioned above, Michigan needs him on the court so that Eli can serve as a floor-spacer that keeps opposing defenses honest and allows Dickinson/Diabate the requisite space.
Small guards, in general. Juwan Howard has been about as good as it gets in terms of recruiting. The one minor quibble I've had is the sub-six foot guards. Against Arizona, the size/length/athleticism deficit was very pronounced. The Wildcat guards found it very easy to shoot over the Wolverine defenders. Even when our backcourt played relatively solid defense and forced Arizona guards into poor shots (by shot-chart standards anyway), it was as if Michigan guards weren't even in the sight-lines because of the size/length deficit.
That disadvantage was even more extreme on the other end of the court. Michigan guards had numerous passes deflected and there were several stretches in the game where it was challenging for our backcourt to even find an open passing lane.
Caleb Houstan's shooting. `Not a ton of analysis needed here. Caleb is shooting 23.1% from distance while attempting more triples than anyone on the team. I'm generally not down on guys missing perimeter shots provided they are quality looks, but Houstan is missing bad right now. Against Arizona we witnessed two jumpers hit the backboard (without drawing rim), while another attempt failed to draw anything at all. Michigan needs him to get out of this funk in a major way given his ongoing defensive limitations that were covered extensively last week.
November 22nd, 2021 at 1:23 PM ^
Pretty simple. Bad shooting. Brooks is the only reliable 3 point shooter, which limits Michigan's ability to spread the floor and swing the ball. Good, athletic defensive teams will cheat their defense inside and limit Dickinson. Granted, Seton Hall and Arizona look like tournament teams, but there's a lot of work to do.
November 22nd, 2021 at 1:30 PM ^
I'd tend to disagree here. Arizona shot 4/21 from distance............and won by damn near 20.
The bigger issue? Arizona shot 64.4% from two and forced 15 Michigan TOs.
Long story short, Arizona guards got two feet in the paint whenever they wanted to and their size/length/athleticism advantage over our backcourt was a huge factor in Michigan's 15 TOs.
November 22nd, 2021 at 1:36 PM ^
Houstan looks way in over his head. Diabate’s footwork needs a ton of work.
November 22nd, 2021 at 2:38 PM ^
Houstan is not in "way over his head" nearly as much as you are way in over your head in knowing what you are looking at. A major issue with these one-and-done prospects is that, in general, they play in a circuit that is heavily about offense and showing out. When you jump from "that" to high level D1 ball the game, the demands take a dramatic turn. There are/have been plenty of indicators that Houstan is going to be a terrific player but he is going to have to figure out how to play against older, more experienced players who know how to make you grind-at both ends of the court.
November 22nd, 2021 at 3:14 PM ^
Thats the definition of way over his head. Thanks for typing it out for me. I know exactly what I'm looking at and he is in over his head combine that with his Team Canada showing last summer his struggles to play organized team basketball looks way off.
November 22nd, 2021 at 9:44 PM ^
Everything you wrote is true, but it's also big ask for a freshman. The players and coaches he's going to be going up against, they are going to take advantage of him every way they can. It is not going to be easy. TheDirtyD is right, he does have a long way to go.
November 22nd, 2021 at 2:42 PM ^
Pretty easy to hit 64% when you are putting on a dunking clinic!
November 23rd, 2021 at 4:16 PM ^
What makes this worse is that Dickinson has major rim protecting limitations so he provides no help on those guards getting in the paint and can't prevent the alley-oops that killed Michigan.
On the whole, I'm not overly concerned about the guard defense. Most of those shots you clipped were relative circus shots that you'll take. Last year it was Brooks and Mike Smith which was a smaller combo (although we definitely miss being able to bring in Brown).
Remember that in the second half against UNLV, Michigan put Eli on the much taller Hamilton and he shut him down.
The defense from our wings is a far bigger concern for me, going forward. If teams keeps shooting over our guards, I'll tip the cap. But if our wings keep getting beat which requires help, that's how the open threes happen. That's a bigger problem.
As for the Diabate and Dickinson lineup, Arizona came in with a much better gameplan than UNLV and just packed the paint and killed us. Although they did the same thing to any lineup involving Johns or Williams so if those guys won't / can't hit threes, I agree that we should just roll with Diabate.
Koloko just stood under the basket. Disappointing that they didn't test Hunter's three point shot given how badly Koloko dominated the paint. Michigan just kept trying to go inside to no avail.
Not many teams are going to have the size of Arizona (maybe none?) but the blueprint is there to beat Michigan: pack the paint. And they were really smart with their frequent trapping.
November 22nd, 2021 at 1:29 PM ^
Great analysis, Matt.
This is a talented team with many new and younger players who just need a little time to learn and develop chemistry.
I'm betting the younger players and newer additions will improve considerably over the season. Houstan will find his rhythm offensively. Jones will play more under control as a playmaker. And Diabate will become even more of an offensive weapon. One or more of the younger guards will develop into a reliable rotation player. A few players will step up as outside shooters - multiple players are talented shooters (including Johns who needs to take open shots).
November 22nd, 2021 at 1:30 PM ^
With regards to the height in the backcourt, do you think there's a lineup available to them that could mitigate that a bit against the more athletic teams they'll run into? Like, once Jackson is healthy that's at least a 6' 5" guy who can get in front of guys.
November 22nd, 2021 at 1:32 PM ^
Bufkin/Zeb can certainly help, the question is whether they can cut it defensively (Bufkin's had some rough moments). Objectively though, I don't know that either can be any worse that Houstan.
November 22nd, 2021 at 1:33 PM ^
We've at least seen enough of Zeb to know that he can stay in front of most of the guys he'd be asked to guard. And honestly, his shot last year didn't look as bad as Houstan's has so far this season.
November 22nd, 2021 at 1:33 PM ^
I was thinking the same thing. It would be awesome if Zeb could come in and contribute in that regard. I've always been rooting for him but I'm concerned that time off the court may hinder his progress. He seems very talented with a lot of upside.
November 22nd, 2021 at 1:30 PM ^
This is some really impressive handwaving.
"While that concern has some validity, most failed to account for the other end of the court."
Diabate and Dickinson on the court and the offense is starting to look like the end of game Bench Mob time when no one has a clue what anyone else is doing.
November 22nd, 2021 at 1:34 PM ^
That's your opinion and one you're entitled too. However, Houstan at the SF has been an absolute disaster on the defensive end and he's just as poor offensively.
You can have the aesthetics/spacing, I prefer winning on the scoreboard.
November 22nd, 2021 at 1:43 PM ^
I wasn't talking about Houstan though, and you weren't either. That was specifically about how bad Dickinson and Diabate have been on the offensive end and your belief that it doesn't matter because they're good on defense together.
And of course I'm entitled to my opinion, just as you are. That's what this is, an opinion piece. If there are some stats that show that Diabate and Dickinson aren't an issue for offensive spacing and scoring, I'd love to see it. Some of those on/off splits we used to get here would probably go a long way towards understanding what is going on.
November 22nd, 2021 at 1:54 PM ^
My piece above specifically references Michigan being +13 with Dickinson AND Diabate on the court together against UNVL............and net zero when they weren't.
But for those Dickinson/Diabate lineups, I'm inclined to think Michigan loses to UNLV.
November 22nd, 2021 at 2:11 PM ^
You don't need to score a lot, but you do need to score more than the other team. The D/D lineup is doing that, so that's good.
Since neither option is great right now though, you also have to look ahead. Which is easier: D/D figuring out a way to make their offense work, or another lineup learning to not be terrible on defense?
I think Diabate will figure out how to play with Dickinson faster than Houstan will figure out how to play D. Whether Houstan will figure out his shot is the wildcard, as the assumption that he will eventually heat up from 3 is the only reason to keep him on the court right now.
November 22nd, 2021 at 6:05 PM ^
if webber and howard could play hi-lo so can HD and diabate.
November 22nd, 2021 at 6:33 PM ^
You very well may be right but that was 30 years ago, now guard dominant and perimeter oriented offenses work better.
November 22nd, 2021 at 8:53 PM ^
https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/boxscores/1993-04-03-kentucky.html
In the 1993 Final Four, UM beat UK while shooting 0-4 from three. Basketball isn't the same sport it was 30 years ago.
November 22nd, 2021 at 1:49 PM ^
Like, since everyone was in agreement, I gotta think Houstan is a good shooter....but, like, is he really? I remember someone mentioning it in a podcast that Houstan had a rough U20 world cup or something with Canada shooting, like sub 20% from 3, on the most volume of the team. I think people chalked that up to an exception. But now with the start to this season, is like, maybe he's not that great a shooter? Is the high school 3pt line different than the FIBA line? The college line? It's really not looking good.
But yeah, the biggest issue to me is the turnovers and the fact that no one looks like they know what they're doing on D. They allow a lot of 3s.
November 22nd, 2021 at 2:38 PM ^
Good question but he has a long track record of a good shot (was a projected lottery pick on that basis). I think it's less about distance and more about (1) less confidence shooting over larger, quicker guys closing out (level of comp greater), and (2) not having as much room now because his HS team was so outstanding Houstan was often wide open for the 3 ball. I think he will be a good shooter by the end of the year but he is going through a larger adjustment period than we expected (shot wise and defensively obviously).
Just my two cents.
November 22nd, 2021 at 2:41 PM ^
Regarding Houstan and his shooting, IMO, it's much easier to scout/compare HS hoops players than football - especially the 4-5* kids.
There are far fewer kids to evaluate, and with AAU ball they all play each other all the time.
Of course, there are tons of wild cards - late bloomers, international kids, small town/school kids who don't play AAU. And upperclassmen!
But, for the upper-level kids, basic skills should be pretty well established. Therefore, while nothing is certain, I think it's a pretty fair bet that Houstan has the ability to be a good shooter - though he's clearly in a deep funk right now.
How they fare in college is a different story. Coaching, motivation, growth, maturity all play factors in how far a kid can go. We've got a whole bunch of well-scouted kids with talent, and a coaching staff with a strong track record for developing that talent. They'll get better, but it takes time.
I've never liked one-and-dones. Just when a kid starts to shine, he's gone. It's so much more fun to watch kids grow and improve, and experienced teams are so much easier to watch.
Last night was painful, and this team is so young the entire season might not be great (at least by our recent history). But there's a ton of talent to mold and grow - the program is fine.
With this team, I still have big concerns about outside shooting and PG. Even if Houstan or someone else gets cooking, we don't have much firepower outside. I hope I'm wrong about Jones, but boy, he has not been impressive thus far. I don't like his handle, and his playmaking seems mediocre. I'm rooting for him to improve.
November 22nd, 2021 at 11:22 PM ^
I think I watched about 6 of Houston’s games prior to his arrival on campus and the 5 since he has been here and I have yet to see him have a good shooting game. It is a small sample size, but it seems like a large amount of bad games for a great shooter. He played against top competition in high school so the leap shouldn’t be that great.
November 22nd, 2021 at 1:55 PM ^
Reality check for the team and season expectations. They still have the talent to make a good run, but the freshmen will have to grow up quickly and the team will have to find its style and chemistry.
I still like where this team can potentially go, now it's time for Juwan and the coaching staff to tune some things.
November 22nd, 2021 at 1:59 PM ^
The arc on Houstan's shot looked like it changed from game 1 to last night. His shot last night looked like it was very high arcing. Game 1 it looked perfect. He really should have been put on the bench. When you are that shook, you aren't going to play through it.
November 22nd, 2021 at 2:05 PM ^
I’m not sure why Houstan is getting such a long leash, he’s not providing anything right now. I’d rather see Bufkin and Frankie in there right now. T Will also, but needs to stop with the jacking threes, that’s not his game.
November 22nd, 2021 at 2:17 PM ^
He's playing a lot because this team is going to need him to reach their full potential. Even if it's rough, he's learning more on the court than off.
November 22nd, 2021 at 2:59 PM ^
100%. Michigan cannot win without someone who can shoot the three ball.
Houstan needs court time to adjust to college-level talent and size. The game is moving way too fast for him right now.
Personally, I think we need to give a bunch of our kids some run and take our lumps early. We lost so much last year. I wouldn't mind seeing two full units for awhile - they can practice together and gain some valuable experience.
Eventually JH can adjust and pare down the rotation.
That said, our coaches have a solid track record, and I trust their judgment.
November 22nd, 2021 at 3:15 PM ^
I’m fine with him playing, maybe not 30-35 minutes a game though. I’d like to see some others get some more run for their experience as well. He might be functionally better playing against the second units of other teams right now too though.
November 22nd, 2021 at 3:38 PM ^
agree. but you still want to win games. there are a lot of tomato cans coming up where he can gain his shooting confidence back. you don't leave him in there to fire up bricks against good opponents, especially when he is the worst defender on the team thus far.
November 22nd, 2021 at 2:10 PM ^
Frankie > Jones
November 22nd, 2021 at 2:12 PM ^
Matt, why do you think he’s recruiting smaller point guards? Also, what do you make of the overall roster composition of this team and where you think Howard is headed with it? I don’t see great shooters and I don’t see elite athleticism to impose our will.
November 22nd, 2021 at 2:30 PM ^
It's still early in Juwan Howard's tenure, but I think his model mirrors Louisville under Rick Pitino to a certain extent.
Small/fast guards (Dug McDaniel) that can apply ball pressure, big-wings/forward that crash the offensive glass (Glenn + Williams) and can make plays off the bounce (Jett + Glenn) and athletic bigs that are switchable and protect the rim (Moussa).
The one distinction is Juwan also takes on traditional bigs that are skilled (Dickinson + Reed).
I like that sort of roster composition in theory, as I'm a defense>offense guy (definitely influenced by the NBA). That said, you need to have adequate shooting. I don't think you need to be a 38-40% team from distance to win a championship. But I do think you need to be 33+. The functional difference is very small............as you're talking 5 additional makes/misses per 100 shots or perhaps less than 1 per game.
For reference, Michigan's two best teams of the last 10 years (2013 and 2014 teams), lost in the tournament to teams (Louisville + Kentucky) that shot exactly 33% from distance on the year. Moral of the story is this, win at the rim consistently and you'll likely make deep runs on a regular basis.
November 22nd, 2021 at 3:13 PM ^
Matt,
I know it’s early but do you still see Houstan as a one and done? Also, what about Diabate? Him leaving would leave us very small down low with Hunter and Johns being done as well. We would have Reed down low and that’s it.
November 22nd, 2021 at 3:35 PM ^
houstan one and done? lol. he better turn into senior glen rice come march.
November 22nd, 2021 at 3:37 PM ^
As you say it's early, but I've never bought into the Houstan OAD hype to the extent you've seen from others.
History dictates that shooters with slow feet generally stay in college for multiple years. Danny Green (which is a REALLY generous comp), Duncan Robinson and Cam Johnson all come to mind. For NBA purposes, the fundamental question is always going to be "can he physically compete with world class athletes?"
On the other end, I think Diabate is much closer to being a one and done, and I definitely hinted at that in my Hello Post. He has what every NBA GM covets. He's a big that moves like a guard, has tremendous length and an offensive skillset that looks increasingly viable nearly every game we watch him.
Long story short is you can teach a guy certain skills, but you simply cannot teach what Moussa has.
November 22nd, 2021 at 3:43 PM ^
spot on. you can't teach height and athleticism. diabate can last a decade in the nba based just on that. add some offensive skill, which i think he has already shown some, look out. i just hope he does stay one more year.
November 22nd, 2021 at 6:50 PM ^
Michigan has had multiple 30 win seasons besides those 2 years you picked out, so I'm not sure how you can say those were the 2 best. You happened to pick 2 teams that play what seems to be your more preferred style and beat Michigan. That same year UConn with 2 small guards and shooting really well from 3 beat that same Kentucky team you mentioned. FSU was a long athletic team that liked to rebound, block shots and get to the rim and Michigan has beaten them twice.
Michigan has been one of the most consistent teams in the country at making deep runs in tournament and it seems like you're acting that their way of playing has been the problem, but I'm not sure that's the case. Villanova (a team that beat Michigan in the title game) shot pretty well from distance that year. Baylor last year I think shot around 40% from 3, Michigan last year shot really well (but because they didn't go far enough you'll hold that against them).
November 22nd, 2021 at 2:15 PM ^
I agree on the length issue, and Michigan isn’t making them pay at the other end of the court with quickness or anything.
I do my see how Michigan can keep playing Houstan the minutes he’s getting. He looks overwhelmed out there. I can’t think of a guy who figured it all out in a year. He looks like a year three kind of guy, and I would try Bufkin and Zeb at the guard spot.
I am mixed on the 4 spot. My idea world of johns being agressive with his shot is never going to happen, so I guess you see what you can get at the 4 spot.
November 22nd, 2021 at 3:26 PM ^
sorry, but jones is not a point guard; shockingly so after everything we were led to believe. he is too slow. on the break he actually looks behind himself rather than pushing ahead. he also struggles to break a one-on-one press by himself. he also consistently gets blown by on D. now, he could be a decent 2 guard scorer off the bench but this team is in for a year-long struggle if plays significant minutes at the point against good teams with good guards.
i would much rather give those PG minutes to collins and jackson in Nov/Dec and hopefully one emerges come big ten play.
November 22nd, 2021 at 3:36 PM ^
Jones looks like a clear downgrade versus Smith in terms of ballhandling, running the pick and roll, outside shooting, probably even defense.
November 22nd, 2021 at 3:45 PM ^
ya, i thought smith was a pleasant surprise from day one. he took a lot of heat though in those couple tourny games. made people forget what a solid season he really had.
November 22nd, 2021 at 6:33 PM ^
Oh, good. You found 3 Ups. I wouldn't have predicted that.
November 22nd, 2021 at 7:05 PM ^
I agree that the team needs play making and shot creation, but I’m not sure Jones is providing it. He’s averaging 2.2 turnovers a game against his 4.6 assists. A 2.09 AstTO ratio isn’t very good (Mike Smith was a 2.5 last season and Franz Wagner was like a 2.3). I know those are just different by a few tenths, but the margins on that metric are really small (a 2.5 was 61st in the NCAA last season while below a 2.3 is outside the top 100).
I’m concerned that he isn’t the answer there, or at least he’s not a good enough answer given that he’s gone next year whereas the other dude’s development will pay dividends beyond this season.
November 22nd, 2021 at 8:28 PM ^
Michigan playing 3,5 v 5 right now. Caleb has been a no show and Brandon disappears for stretches. UM also getting almost nothing from the bench beyond Moussa.
Juwan has to figure out rotations and then find some offense or this team will struggle in B1G play.
November 23rd, 2021 at 12:27 PM ^
Houstan looks like he should be playing the 4 spot. But then you need to rebound from other spots to make up for it, and I think the best offensive line up is Jones, Brooks and Bufkin at the 1-3. And then HD and Moussa rotating at the 5. But that assumes Houstan starts at the 4 instead of Moussa.
He just looks a bit lost trying to guard the 3, and he's not quick enough to get his shot off. You could cross match with Moussa in the game to defend the 3 if they all play together, but the court spacing is a nightmare because Houstan isn't good enough at moving off the ball and takes time to get his shot off. I'd go small and play Bufkin at the 3 or try Barnes for a bit and let Houstan figure it out a bit at the 4 spot, but I think teams that shoot it well are the best these days. The game has changed a lot, and being able to shoot matters quite a bit.
Comments