Spring Football Bits Offense: Sunshine and Roses Comment Count

Seth

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[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Scheduling note: Splitting these up because we got a lot from this weekend. Here’s the offense.

Why so Positive?

I hate to write to the worst of my mentions but the biggest complaint I’ve gotten from doing these write-ups is they’re too positive. There is a very good reason for this: That is what the people with access want to share. Most of the information available to the public comes from the coaches and players made available to the press. That’s supplemented by SOURCES: former players, current players, family members, big donors, local coaches, or those hearing second-hand from them. They are partisans or ambassadors, and have all been told how to talk to the media.

Once in awhile some of this is negative, but the first rule of sourcing is don’t repeat something unless you can verify it, either by getting the same information independently or because you trust where it’s coming from entirely. Positive stuff gets repeated; negative things are usually coming from just one guy. Balancing coverage is impossible, for one, and two, a fallacious exercise.

The best I can do is present the information we have and frame it in context of spring hype. If you take biased information at face value you’re a fool; if you run from bias because it’s not what you want to hear you’re a coward. All agreed? Good. Let’s see where the smoke is blowing.

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Offense in General

What we want to hear: Just be honest, okay?

What we’re hearing: From umbig11: 

“The ‘SWAG’ is back on the offense! We have playmakers and we have studs on the OL. Shea is playing at a level not seen in A2 for several years!”

Michael Spath talked to a couple players ($) about the how the team looks this year, and got stuff like this:

"I'd put Shea up against any quarterback in the Big Ten, I think Tarik is going to be the best receiver and Ruiz ... man, he's got everything. I'd be shocked if he's not an All-American."

In an interview with Josh Henscke, Carlo Kemp said the offensive line is tough to play against:

"They're really good at every position," Kemp said. "It's a battle every time, especially inside. You've got to be ready to take on double-teams, people coming this way and that way, it's a lot faster game. The o-line is looking really good all across the board. We've all gotten stronger, we've all matured from last season and two seasons ago just with experience playing from the same position. It's been a good fight, o-line and d-line this fall."

What it means:  So that’s where the smoke is blowing. Right up in there.

[after THE JUMP: what you want to hear.]

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Quarterback 

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I see you, Patterson, but it’s still my back you see. [Patrick Barron]

What we want to hear: Just be honest, okay?

What we’re hearing: The depth chart is sorting itself out with Shea locking up the top job and Peters finally creating separation from McCaffrey. Sam Webb posted a breakdown of what people are seeing from Shea ($) on the field the last few weeks: despite not having the full playbook down yet, Patterson is taking command of what he knows, making the right checks. However he notes—and I heard this too—that he doesn’t know the whole playbook yet, and is running wit the two versus the twos.

Peters is taking most of the first string snaps. His spring started slow but something clicked last week, and the parents who watched practice on Saturday saw it. Borton posted an ITF ($) that drew largely from the same thing I got sent, and it makes much better sense of the QB situation:

Michigan's quarterback situation may be better than advertised, especially if junior transfer Shea Patterson is eligible. Much has been said about that, obviously, but there's more to say. He's begun looking very comfortable over the past couple of weeks, but he's not The Lone Ranger in the effectiveness department. In the views of some, redshirt sophomore Brandon Peters took big steps in the second part of spring ball, following a slow start. Meanwhile, redshirt freshman Dylan McCaffrey represents, in some people's minds, the most consistent performer the Wolverines have put behind center this spring.

Joe Milton is headed for a redshirt though he’s made some ridiculous plays; the early returns on him is he’s a special talent (listen to Sam Webb’s spring bits at about 15:00) and special personality.

What it means: Here I go speculating: Peters was assuredly the most affected by Michigan bringing in the top quarterback of his year as a transfer to play immediately. We’re also only a few months removed from “The Brandon Peters era has begun.” As soon as his Outback Bowl performance broke bad you knew it would be a rough offseason for him on the message boards, and lo it has come to pass. The same crap went on with the similarly quiet Henne: when he’s doing well he’s cool, and when he’s not people can watch the Amazon special and come away thinking he’s too diffident to play quarterback.

Pull back from the echo chamber and you get a more reasonable picture. His performance last year was very freshman: good and occasionally tantalizing with the apron strings on, a mess when asked to carry an offense that can’t protect his face. I have no problem believing McCaffrey—again the scout team player of the year—is viable, but neither do I think him pulling even with Peters was all about McCaffrey. The coaches weren’t going to make it easy on Brandon, and you wouldn’t want them to. He’s handling it pretty okay, and if whatever people were seeing this weekend carries over into fall he’s got a real shot at starting.

For kicks I plotted Shea and Brandon last year versus some other 2nd year pro-ish QBs (plus Tate as a true freshman) whom you might remember.

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(“SA” means sack-adjusted)

Patterson is an eventful dude. Peters was a standard freshman. McCaffrey this year would probably be the same. Joe Milton by 2021 could be greater than all of them.

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Running Back

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you’re the man now dog. [Barron]

What we want to hear: Just be honest, okay?

What we’re hearing: Karan Higdon is having a huge spring. He’s one of those alphas and the third guy, along with Ruiz and Bredeson, they think will be an all-conference player on offense. Evans is still #2 and a change of pace back, and involved enough to almost be a second starter. Spring ends with the #3 spot still up in the air, though O’Maury Samuels made a move and tentatively holds a lead over the field. Kareem Walker changed his number to 46.

What it means: Again nothing from spring is going to tell us more than watching them play. I can’t find the article now but I think someone interviewed Walker about his number change over the winter and that this was part of a mentality change he had to go through. Stargazers keep asking about him; insiders say he’s on a good track and stop asking about him. The lack of scouting makes me wonder if he’s dinged up.

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Wide Receivers

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I want to paint it black [Chris Cook]

What we want to hear: There’s a reason freshman receivers suck, or at least that ours kinda did.

What we’re hearing: Last year sucked (Zach Shaw). The numbers confirm: receivers caught just barely half of their targets last year.

More confirmation that the leaders are Black, DPJ and Collins at WR and Martin in the slot, with Black and DPJ emerging into stars. Black is 100% back, Sam’s source noted a 50-50 ball to Tarik is more like a 75-25, and JT Rogan’s podcast said Black looks as good as any receiver they faced last year. Zordich brought up the sophomore leaps in his presser last Friday, with the addition of Schoenle.

Jim said yesterday that the receivers have really taken a big step. From your vantage point—

“Yes, yes, absolutely. Donovan, Tarik, Nate, all of them have taken a step forward. Again, I think it’s just the youth factor and having that year under their belt, their freshman year out of the way. They’ve been through camps, they’re in their second spring, so they’re very comfortable. Everything’s slowed down for them as well, and you’re just reacting. you’re playing, you’re instinctive, and you can see their improvement.”

Tarik hasn’t missed a beat?

“No, nuh-uh, he hasn’t. Donovan Peoples-Jones…he’s going to be something special.”

How is he better? How’s Donovan better?

“He’s running really good routes, he’s very strong at the line of scrimmage, and he makes great catches. I mean, he’s just got super hands. Very talented guy.”

One guy told me they really feed on each other, and that Black being out there and competing again really brings out the best in Peoples-Jones.

The other big thing they’re talking about is defeating press coverage. “Very strong at the line of scrimmage” is a thing I didn’t realize I very much wanted to hear, after handsy jammy teams shut down Michigan’s receivers last year. Adam is still writing up the McElwain presser from last night but the same theme emerged right away:

“For us, one of the focus areas has been ability to, number one, get open, especially against all the press coverage that you see. They’ve really worked on honing their skills and trying to do what we’re trying to teach them to do, and yet we’ve got a long ways to go, but at the same time it’s really a fun group of guys and it’s great to be around them.”

Sam Webb posted an interview with Roy Roundtree on 247’s The Victors Club ($) that also addressed this:

…it sounds like they've come a long way in getting off the jam.

"Their weakness was that," Roundtree said. "That’s something that we’ve been really emphasizing in spring ball. All the other (stuff) is second nature to those guys because they can run and they can catch, but how can you do any of that if you’re not open."

If you’re a member click through for a lot more about what’s different with the sophomores this year in both approach and demeanor.

What it means: Crawford (whose number is now 41 on the official roster this morning) and McDoom are getting passed on the depth chart and I’m fine with this development.

The other thing that stands out is they’re talking more about throwing it up where the receivers can make a play. I think they underutilized this with Darboh (and he missed some at the worst times) and haven’t had another guy who can win those consistently since Junior Hemingway. Even before you get to the tight ends this roster is full of them.

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Tight End

What we want to hear: Just be honest, okay?

What we’re hearing: McKeon, followed by Gentry, but both are going to be on the field so that’s a 1A, 1B thing. People saying Gentry is a receiver are seeing him flexed out a la Tyler Eifert. Eubanks is going to be a factor (Lorenz), has added a lot of weight.

What it means: Like the running backs you’ve seen so much already spring hype doesn’t move the needle. I like that they’re creating tougher matchups, and I’m guessing based on some of the plays described, that they’re doing some of the option route things they used to effectiveness with Jake Butt.

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Offensive Line

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I just can’t quit you. [Paul Sherman]

What we want to hear: Just be honest, okay?

What we’re hearing: Hudson has made a move, drawing even with JBB, and Jon Runyan is playing so well at right tackle that the loser on the other side might go to the bench. The insiders all think Filiaga is ready to play, and half include Stueber.

Josh Newkirk and Sam Webb posted a video after talking with JBB, who’s got an air of confidence that wasn’t there before. The big thing from that is Harbaugh and co. were debating whether to burn James Hudson’s redshirt last year.

Everyone loves Ruiz, and Bredeson gets mentioned with him sometimes. Nothing new about the Spanellis-Onwenu battle for right guard, except Spanellis is learning center so they’re not without one if Ruiz goes down. He was an effective sixth OL last year so having him plus the three big guys inside is a plausibly effective interior.

Zach Shaw talked with Ruiz, who said the big difference this year is juice:

“I think we have a lot more energy this year in practice,” Ruiz said. “We’ve got a lot of things rolling this year, and I just feel like guys have a lot more energy. I feel like guys are really pumped up and ready to go more.”

What it means: Note that we got no such nice words about any of these guys this time last year. Hudson pushing out JBB is the ideal development. Energy is nice but also very spring fluff.

The line at the end of spring from there goes Bredeson-Ruiz-Onwenu-Runyan and if Hudson wins the left tackle job I think that’s a line we can roll with, but protection will still be an issue. I feel confident in projecting Onwenu the starter at RG even if that’s only coming from one source, because it makes sense if they’re even that you take the guy with more upside and save the guy with more versatility as your sixth man.

I don’t feel as confident in the assertions that they have 8 guys “ready to play.” I think they’ve got two B+/A- guys in Bredeson and Ruiz, one C+/B- guy in Onwenu, and are trying to get up to a passing grade at the tackle spots. I’d take two C-plusses right now.

Comments

ijohnb

April 17th, 2018 at 1:19 PM ^

Black got hurt last year at about the exact time it became clear to me how good he was going to be.  I am really looking forward to watching him this year and I think that he alone will make things a lot easier on whoever the QB ends up being.

4th phase

April 17th, 2018 at 3:33 PM ^

There was a throwaway comment in the Kwity Paye interview where the reporter asked him what had changed about the offensive line and he said "they say its gotten easier, like the playcalling, whos calling the plays and what not" 

That could confirm what everyone is saying that Pep is the only one calling plays now. Or it could mean that Ruiz is better at making line calls than Kugler. Or it could be meaningless.

mgobaran

April 17th, 2018 at 3:17 PM ^

And would you look at that, the #1 was not tarnished in the process, nor has the world ended. I always hated that argument when it came to the #1 or the legends jersey. If they prove not worthy, no big deal. Otherwise it's something to live up to. It's much better than handing it out to only deserving upperclassmen, and three different WRs end up wearing it 3 seasons in a row. 

 

It's like when Hemmingway started making plays it was really refreshing to see a Michigan WR running around on the field with #21 again. By the time Gallon got 21, I was tired of the whole thing. 

mgobaran

April 17th, 2018 at 4:21 PM ^

I guess that sounded like I was dissing Gallon, but I did not mean to. Gallon was my favorite WR here since at least Manningham. I loved that dude. Rocket boots and invisibility cloaks! 

I mean, you look at that 2011 team and Hemmingway was 21, Roundtree 12, Gallon 10, and by the end all of them were 21? That is just weird to me. It was the wrong way to implement what I thought could be a cool tradition. 

Caesar

April 17th, 2018 at 1:25 PM ^

I'm wondering if all the talk about the young guys is smoke. I forget the year, but you get ridiculous spring/practice hype, and in the end it's the upperclassmen who end up as starters.

DrMantisToboggan

April 17th, 2018 at 1:29 PM ^

Seeing as how Tarik was a starter to begin the year and DPJ was starting by the end of the year, I don't see why you would consider it to be smoke. They are our best WRs and the logical starters. 

 

As for Martin, I don't think it's smoke - I think he's playing really well and the #1 slot currently - but Perry could certainly retake that job once he's fully healthy. I think Martin is going to be very good and could keep the job, but if Perry gets it back I don't think the Martin talk was "smoke".

HChiti76

April 17th, 2018 at 4:07 PM ^

There have only been two three time consensus All Americans in Michigan football history:

Bennie Oosterbaan and Anthony Carter.

No one should have worn the #1 after Carter.  It should have been retired.

Still my favorite Michigan player ever!! 

 

Kenpoj

April 17th, 2018 at 1:31 PM ^

whole different vibe coming from everyone that spends anytime around this team right now. From the changes to the coaching staff and the difference we seem to be seeing from Coach Harbaugh I am getting more and more confident that we will have the kind of team we always expected from hiring Jim Harbaugh. The trajectory is pointing up and I am ready to ride the wave. Go Blue!!!

smwilliams

April 17th, 2018 at 1:57 PM ^

I'm going to be pedantic here and say that the "arrow is pointing up" and "we'll finally have a good team" takes bother me.

We had two good teams. In 2015, the same group that went 5-7 the year before went 10-3 and one of those losses was on a fluke play that'll never happen again in a million years.

In 2016, we had a great team that got really, really unlucky. Like, I think back and still can't believe that a) Iowa gets every bounce imaginable and still wins by 1 and b) the refs, Samuel's escape, and the Spot lead us to lose by 3 in OT in Columbus.

Last year was a downer, but they lost their starting QB and a bazillion starters to the NFL. Look what happened to FSU last year when Francois went down. Had to reschedule a bodybag game to keep their bowl streak alive.

This isn't a slight on you because I know what you meant, just the idea that somehow Harbaugh's tenure is a disappointment doesn't hold water with me.

GotBlueOnMyMind

April 17th, 2018 at 4:50 PM ^

It is hard for a coach to call a good game when he has no faith in his QB. That severely limits the playbook and prevents the coach from taking advantage of opportunities that would be availble with a competent QB. People really underestimate the impact of the poor QB play last year. On one hand, it is up to the coaches to get the QBs up to par. On the other, the only two QBs on the roster recruited from high school by the current staff were a RS Frosh and a true Frosh. Yes, other programs have had successful youg QBs, but I would guess that those programs are notable exceptions, rather than the rule.

bronxblue

April 18th, 2018 at 12:08 PM ^

There are bad coaching and play calls in every game. When you win people forget about them, and when you lose people read way too much into them.

They ran a dumb play in the bowl game than ended terribly. But people fixate on that and not, say, the dozens of great playcalls they made in the OSU game that almost got a John O'Korn led offense to upset the Buckeyes.

canzior

April 17th, 2018 at 3:57 PM ^

Three games were winnable. MSU and Wisconsin were both 1 score games at crucial points. Peters probably beats MSU, and healthy, maybe even Wisconsin. And...M was up 14-0 on OSU. even 2 of those wins changes the narrative on the entire season. 

I have heard a lot of HOF coaches say that a season of close losses with younger guys turns into a very good season the following year, with those same guys learning how to finish. 

 

Also...no need to talk about Penn State. 

Icehole Woody

April 17th, 2018 at 1:35 PM ^

I love this summaries, thank you.  I've been thinking that all they need to do is find a serviceable LT and the offense will be OK.  Sounds like they may have two.   And we know the defense is going to be great. 

Beat the Irish!

AC1997

April 17th, 2018 at 1:36 PM ^

To me this entire post and the entire season still centers around the mess at OL....even though I liked hearing the other bits. My take on your takes:

  • QB - Patterson if he's eligible, but Peters still a contender.  Both need help to succeed and both will have limitations.
  • RB - Potential to be amazing with a little OL/QB help.
  • WR - Saying all the right things.  I assume Perry has been hurt?  He's the one guy you could count on to catch what was thrown to him and that's a skill needed in the rotation.  Crawford is a decent piece for depth but didn't bring any one skill to the table that stood out so far.  McDoom brings one skill to the table....but it doesn't involve running a route or catching a pass so it is hard to fit him into the mix.  
  • TE - Use them effectively as part of a balanced offense....and don't hand the ball to them.  
  • OL - I agree with your take on the letter grades.  This is a position group where you always want to have solid depth and competition in the spring.  But this still reeks of "we have no true tackle on the roster".  If JBB or Runyan lock down RT then I feel "okay" with that.  They're fine.  But it is hard to see upside or more than a C+/B- there.  If they lost the job to Filiaga then you worry about freshmen mistakes but are dreaming of the upside that comes with youth.  At LT we're either putting in an "ok RT", we're hoping for the converted DT to be good as a RS-FR, or we're hoping for a medical miracle with Newsome.  I think the odds of any of those happening are low enough for the coaches to consider JBB a contentender there because he's a known commodity.  

Seth

April 17th, 2018 at 2:01 PM ^

Yes Perry has been hurt. The insider who sends me and Rivals the same emails thinks that Oliver Martin is going to keep the job when Perry returns, though, because he's almost as good at running routes and is a vastly better deep ball option.

That makes sense to me. One of the best ways to break open a Quarters defense like State's (one that puts a lot of pressure on its safeties in the run game and compresses linebackers to widen their pass rush) is to torch them with a slot receiver that a safety can't cover. Oliver Martin gives them a guy you need to match an NFL-level cover guy on.