And then it was fine? Yesterday I laid out what I thought was the most likely scenario in which the NCAA did something of significant consequence to Michigan: leverage the new head coach responsibility bylaw to drop a show cause on Jim Harbaugh for stuff Connor Stalions did. IMO, this is still a concern, but it looks like less of one now that ~all paysites are reporting that whatever roadblocks this investigation had put up towards Harbaugh's new contract are gone:

There are currently no roadblocks between Michigan and Jim Harbaugh to get a deal done.

What we know, and what we don't, about how the university plans to proceed with extension talks.

Details: https://t.co/J3i6wWGvzL

— Josh Henschke (@JoshHenschke) October 31, 2023

Henschke followed that up with a tweet saying that there is "some hypothesizing that the contract will likely mean Michigan is Jim Harbaugh's last job." For his part, Sam Webb posted an article headlined "Harbaugh extension process no longer paused."

It seems likely Michigan will announce a new contract that makes Harbaugh the highest-paid coach in the Big Ten, and it sounds like for the first time it will have a significant buyout if Harbaugh wants to leave. Given that he's been at Michigan for ten years and has never had anything like that in his contract, if that does come to fruition it would be a statement that he's sticking in Ann Arbor long-term.

A lot of people are taking this as good news in regards to the NCAA violations Stalions was racking up. I agree, at least partially. It beggars belief that Michigan would move forward with the contract unless they had completed their review of everyone's laptops, phones, etc., and found no evidence that Stalions's "vast network" was anything other than his personal project. Certainly at Harbaugh's level, and likely all the way down the list. The contract proceeding means that if we were going to hear about additional suspensions/firings/personnel being launched into the sun, we would hear about them now. No news is good news.

[After THE JUMP: sigh: however]

However! Even if Stalions was acting entirely on his own, there is still the matter of the HC responsibility bylaw. AFAIK it is so new that Harbaugh is going to be the first case, more or less. Anything could happen. In general, you should bet on "the NCAA will do nothing" in almost all cases. But here you've got a guy who the enforcement committee clearly hates. He's coming off a three-game suspension that appears to be for stonewalling on some piddly charges. A guy with a blood vendetta against Harbaugh is literally on the committee, and even if he has to recuse himself from this case he's probably going to be trying to influence it in any way he can.

I have no idea what the chances of this transpiring are but they're not zero.

But the contract? All coaching contracts give the school an out if the NCAA comes down on them. Harbaugh's current contract has this in the section detailing when the university can fire Harbaugh for cause:

Unless that language changes in the updated contract the U isn't going out on a limb here. If the NCAA does give Harbaugh a show cause they could fire him for cause. In fact, it is dead certain that at some point they are going to have the ability to fire Harbaugh for cause. The next bullet:

Probation and a fine are definitely happening.

Michigan is not going to fire Harbaugh for cause unless they have absolutely no other choice; this section asserts that while the contract going forward is evidence of several good things, it is not evidence that Jim Harbaugh is personally in the clear with the NCAA.

NEW: @TheAthletic has obtained more photos of the goatee'd sunglasses person on the Central Michigan sideline at Michigan State.

CMU is looking into whether this is Connor Stalions.

Story: https://t.co/79siEcZ89r pic.twitter.com/R5AyslTIWF

— Chris Vannini (@ChrisVannini) October 31, 2023

He's deceiving me, it cuts my security. CMU is investigating whether Stalions was on their sideline for the MSU-CMU game in week one this year. (It was on Friday, thus opening up the possibility of attending.) I believe they're going to find that he was, and that he dressed up in CMU coaching gear to access places he wasn't supposed to. You only investigate who a person is when you don't, you know, know who he is. Because he's employed by you.

This doesn't matter: one more game isn't going to significantly move the needle when Stalions was taping 30. It should further indicate just how off the rails this guy was, and certainly makes it more believable that he was, uh, dedicated enough to do all this on his own. He's wearing sunglasses at night.

I guess the good news is that Ed Norton's going to play him in the movie. That's a big get.

Nothing is happening soon. Pete Thamel appeared on Pat McAfee's show and said that "this will not get expedited and there's no mechanism for it." 2023 punishments are not happening from the NCAA. The Big Ten would have to be mad enough to make Fox furious, reduce the conference's chances of making the playoff, reduce all their bottom lines, and deal with Michigan saber-rattling about going to the SEC. That's not happening either. This team is in the clear.