Recruiting Overview, Post-Spring
Numbers
no reason [Eric Upchurch]
Sam Webb reports that Michigan is going to take another very large class this year, with numbers I'm not sure are in fact possible: 28 on the low end and 32(!) on the high end. Michigan took 28 last year*, backdating seven. That should mean that they can only backdate four from this year's class, giving a hard LOI cap of 29. Schools are figuring out ways around that LOI cap—that's what "blueshirting" is—but those are inconvenient.
Meanwhile I'm not sure about getting to the larger number without cutting certain spots on the roster to the bone. Michigan has 18 slots open right now and it's not too hard to get to 23 via a combination of early NFL draft entry, unrenewed fifth years, and the injury situation with Freddy Canteen. Five more departures to hit 28 is not unreasonable, but the roster will skew very young next season so there are going to be fewer players who are ready to move on in search of playing time.
It'll be interesting. The takeaway is yes, expect another large class.
*[I'm not counting Dytarious Johnson for purposes of this conversation. If he does enroll that obviously occupies another scholarship slot.]
Quarterback
Michigan is probably done with #1 QB Dylan McCaffrey in the fold but they could take a second, especially if that second had upside at another position. GA QB Jelani Woods, a 6'7" dual threat guy, is the only name on the board that fits this description at this instant. 90% they are done.
Projection: done.
Running back
With Kurt Taylor, AJ Dillon, and O'Maury Samuels committed Michigan is done unless a nationally elite name wants to join up. In that case they'd have to make a hard decision. Taylor does fit the profile of the guys that they more or less forcibly decommitted in the previous class, but dude is so enthusiastic about Michigan and the PR would be so bad that even if they wanted to—and I'm not saying they do—they would probably have to keep him.
FWIW, a strapping athlete like Dillon could easily be a Don Brown linebacker. The other two guys are locked in at tailback.
Projection: done.
[After THE JUMP: positions that are not full.]
Wide receiver
Five-star MI WR Donovan Peoples-Jones is and will remain the top target, probably until Signing Day. Sam Webb related that NJ ATH Markquese Bell was on commit watch for a second there; he probably fits in at wide receiver.
Michigan might not take more than two depending on how many of the six guys they took last year stick at WR. If Bell is a safety to the staff or they move Hawkins and/or Mitchell, additional WR targets are currently pretty fuzzy. AL WR Nico Collins would have been the easy next name on the list before he did not make a scheduled spring game visit. If he does come up again (he was on campus for the OSU game last year) then you may resume mild optimisim.
CA WRs Joseph Lewis and Tyjon Lindsey are possibilities; CT WR Tarik Black is widely thought to be an Alabama lean, but the Tide might not have room for him. If that is the case Michigan is in the thick of that recruitment. NJ WR Bo Melton and MI WR KJ Hamler are both slot types coming in a year after Michigan brought in two or three guys who can play in the slot; Michigan might end up going after one or the other heavily. Obviously, track visits to see who Michigan is serious about and vice versa.
With DPJ out there for most of the cycle it's likely Michigan keeps their board open here.
Projection: Bell commits before his football season. DPJ keeps everyone on their toes. Michigan is probably the favorite, but in a "40% versus the field at 60%" kind of way. They add a third WR who is not mentioned above.
Tight End
Michigan has a commitment from instater and legacy Carter Dunaway. They are in search of a second. Right now the top name is Texas soft commitment Major Tennison. Tennison came up for the spring game and told Lorenz he was scheduling a second unofficial over the summer. The worry here is that prying a football player named "Major Tennison" away from Texas will destabilize the space-time continuum, but Harbaugh don't care.
The rest of the tight end board is comprised of guys who have expressed interest but have not made it to campus. CA TE Josh Falo, CA TE Jimmy Jaggers, and OH TE Matt Dotson are amongst those names. Dotson has a visit set up next weekend.
Tennison seems relatively likely to flip given the multiple unofficials; if he doesn't then the second TE in the class is more likely to be someone we're not talking about than someone listed above.
Projection: They flip Tennison either this summer or when Texas has an iffy season again.
Offensive Line
Ruiz(#52) has been around a lot
Michigan has a commit from instater JaRaymond Hall. They need more dudes, and plenty of them, after a disappointing finish to the OL class last year. There are plenty of good candidates on the interior, with national #1 and #2 centers Cesar Ruiz and Brett Neilon coming off of productive spring game visits. Ruiz has a top three of M, Bama, and UNC; he's been on campus a ton and is probably more likely than not to end up in the class. Neilon would be up there as well save a ton of USC connections in his family. Top-100 IMG guard Robert Hainsey also visited for the spring game. M has a good shot at him with MSU and PSU the primary competition at the moment.
At tackle FL OL Tedarrell Slaton and NY OL Isaiah Wilson are the highest-profile targets. Michigan was named the leader by both a few months back; both have backed off public proclamations of leaders since. I recently put in a ballz for Slaton to Michigan on the MGo247Account; that was an indirect result of putting together this post. All of the Slaton articles I could find from Florida-based schools thought their school wasn't actually of too much interest to Slaton and mentioned Michigan as a contender.
Wilson is thought to be a heavy Michigan lead aside from one alarming report from Rivals's Adam Friedman, who also offered up alarming and widely repudiated intel on Drew Singleton. Wilson's gone radio silent since his Michigan visit in February. He's got a visit to Bama coming up next weekend.
Other guys Michigan is on the radar for include five-star CA OL Wyatt Davis (M is in a top 15),
Projection: They add Ruiz, one of Neilon/Hainsey, one of Wilson/Slaton, and get a fifth guy who is definitely a tackle.
Defensive Line
Like OL, Michigan is set to take a bunch of guys here since they will lose at least four players. MI DT Phil Paea jumped onboard at the spring game; he could be an interior OL as well. Instate DE Corey Malone-Hatcher has seemingly been on the verge of a commit for months now; Michigan is likely the choice in the end.
Things get uncertain once venturing outside the pleasant peninsula. NJ DT Fred Hansard visited for the spring game, and for a second it was looking very good for him. Then he scrapped his plan to decide on his birthday and said he no longer had a top list. I'm not sure what's going on with him but it appears that certain schools (M, OSU) have a different opinion of his talent level than the recruiting sites.
If Hansard and Michigan aren't a fit it's then on to a bunch of Polynesian dudes out west. Michigan brought in Tony Tuioti to recruit the state of Polynesia, as it were, and Michigan is in hot pursuit of a number of guys. The most prominent right now are UT DT Jay Tufele and OR DT Marlon Tuipulotu. Both are in the talk-no-visit category right now.
At DE, Michigan made the top fifteen for MD DE Chase Young. They're up there with VA DE Luiji Vilain, a transfer out of Canada for whom Michigan is about as close as it gets to home. They're pursuing five-star IMG DE Joshua Kaindoh; right now that doesn't look to be going amazingly but there's a lot of time for Michigan to pull him back in, especially if M and PSU have the seasons it looks like they will have.
Projection: Malone-Hatcher and then ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Linebacker
Singleton is the top target at LB
Still pretty simple. MI LB Josh Ross is a commit and NJ LB Drew Singleton is widely expected to become one sooner or later. Uncommitted recruits who come on The Michigan Insider generally end up signing with Michigan, and Singleton has a relationship with not only a dozen Michigan players but his future LB coach.
If Michigan does go to 28, linebacker is a candidate for an extra spot. IMG LB Jordan Anthony, who came up with Ruiz and Hainsey, is a candidate to be the third. Michigan also made the top five for a couple of Alabamans, Will Ignont and Sterling Jones, but both guys are very likely to end up staying south. That's the story for most of the rest of the board right now—all talk, no visit.
Projection: Ross, Singleton, and one other. 30% likely it's Anthony, 70% a guy were aren't talking about.
Secondary
CN CB Benjamin St Juste is joined by AL S J'Marick Woods at a spot that Michigan will be loading up on. They lose five DBs to graduation and most expect Jabrill Peppers to be a sixth departure.
The most likely adds appear to be a couple of in-state players. Michigan held off a commit from AL S AJ Harris because they are waiting on Cass S Jaylen Kelly-Powell. Kelly-Powell's dad just told TMI that he may be moving up his timeline, which would be good for Michigan. De La Salle ATH Allen Stritzinger is now definitely a DB recruit for Michigan, and that's reportedly where he wants to play anyway. If Michigan does grab those two guys the next step would be to swing for the fences with the last couple slots.
MI CB Ambry Thomas will be a part of that. Thomas has talked about leaving the state a lot; Michigan remains after him. He intends to take his recruitment through officials. Other corners on the radar include CA CB Jaylon Redd, TX CB Kary Vincent, FL CB CJ Cotman, and GA CB Deejay Dallas. VA S Jonathan Sutherland, a teammate of Vilain, is also a Canadian transfer who lists Michigan highly.
Projection: Michigan adds Kelly-Powell and Stritzinger. They go after a third corner heavily; your guess is as good as mine.
Specialists
Michigan might take a punter.
This instant's ridiculous class projection you should absolutely ignore
You can start giving this mild credence as Michigan's board is coming into shape. "Low" is still a meaningless placeholder, more or less, and "moderate" is a guy who is less than 50% to be in the class but still has a decent chance to get there.
FWIW, "Approximate stars" is a projection. Samuels and Paea and particular are seeing their rankings lag their camp performance (Samuels) and offers (Paea); I expect both will get bumps by summer.
State | Position | Player | Approx. Stars | Confidence Level |
---|---|---|---|---|
CO | QB | Dylan McCaffrey | 5 | Commit |
GA | RB | Kurt Taylor | 3 | Commit |
NM | RB | O'Maury Samuels | 4 | Commit |
MA | RB | AJ Dillon | 4 | Commit |
FL | FB | Chase Lasater | 3 | Commit |
MI | WR | Donovan Peoples-Jones | 5 | Moderate |
NJ | WR | Markquese Bell | 4 | High |
MI | TE | Carter Dunaway | 3 | Commit |
TX | TE | Major Tennison | 3 | Moderate |
MI | OL | JaRaymond Hall | 4 | Commit |
NY | OL | Isaiah Wilson | 5 | High |
FL | OL | Tedarrell Slaton | 4.5 | Moderate |
FL | OL | Cesar Ruiz | 4 | High |
CA | OL | Brett Neilon | 4 | Moderate |
OR | DT | Marlon Tuipulotu | 4 | Low |
MI | DT | Phil Paea | 4 | Commit |
UT | DT | Jay Tufele | 4.5 | Low |
MI | DE | Corey Malone-Hatcher | 4 | High |
VA | DE | Luiji Vilain | 4 | Moderate |
FL | DE | Josh Kaindoh | 5 | Low |
NJ | LB | Drew Singleton | 4.5 | Very High |
MI | LB | Josh Ross | 4 | Commit |
FL | LB | Anthony Jordan | 4 | Low |
CN | CB | Benjamin St Juste | 3 | Commit |
MI | CB | Allen Stritzinger | 4 | Moderate |
FL | CB | CJ Cotman | 4 | Low |
MI | S | Jaylen Kelly-Powell | 4 | Very High |
AL | S | J'Marick Woods | 3.5 | Commit |
Yeah, I think the camps are going to be a little less exciting for recruitniks than they were last year.
I know he may have made so many offers to generate buzz, but I think many questioned whether some of the kids were "Michigan-type recruits". It may be a good thing to hold off on the offers since the camps have already generated enough buzz thanks to the SEC crying about them.
Harbaugh didn't yet know how well recruiting would go. He had some trouble finishing the 2015 class and there was no on field product to sell yet. I think Swenson and Peters were the only commits we had at this time last year. The outlook is so much different now.
Where will Ambry thomas end up?
Most things I've heard have him heading down to ACC or SEC country.
Steve Wiltfong at 247 says Michigan for Thomas.
If he believed that with great certainty, he would Crystal Ball it.
Right now there are four predictions on 247, none from Wiltfong. There are two picks for MSU and two saying the crystal ball is cloudy.
It might be a way to get the best of both worlds. Why say in public he wants to stay in-state, and effectively turn down 5 official visits down that way, and all they usually promise (wink wink)? Even if he was leaning towards home in private and basically a silent commit.
Basically boils down to: don't hold your breath, don't panic and tune back in after bowl season.
with red shirts you are talking about up to 125 scholarship athletes per roster.
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4-7 Five star players and 15-19 4 star players. Is that realistic? I don't think so.
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I think you should pay attention to the conifdence level. Ace even says "moderate" means less than 50%, but at this point in the process this is as good as a guage anyone can really have.
long as Michigan snake oils Penn States' 5 star verbal commits, I'll be happy.
Corey Bolds and Stanford Samuels nowhere to be found?
I've heard Michigan is not pursuing Bolds very hard, and Samuels is likely to end up at FSU.
Heard Bolds has some work to do...
He was replaced by Samuels' father, who played at FSU. That FSU leads for him is to be expected.
I'm mostly hoping that Eddie McDoom, Major Tennison, and Luiji Vilain face off in some kind of all-name competition.
I forgot about McDoom. I am now happier.
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I really feel bad for the kid his name is being speculated about in ways I know I wouldn't appreciate and it's not like he's done anything to deserve it.
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Taylor does fit the profile of the guys that they more or less forcibly decommitted in the previous class
Why do we still take guys like this so early in the year? There is plenty of time for both sides to test the waters and make sure each other is a good fit. No need to rush into something both sides may regret in public.
I'm sure neither party goes into it thinking this. And just because the poster above thinks he "fits the profile" whatever the fuck that means, doesn't mean Harbaugh thinks that. We offfered Kurt Taylor early and accepted his commitment early. I doubt Harbaugh is expecting him out of the class.
Peppers is already being projected as a top 10-15 pick in mock drafts for next year. If he has the season many expect, he's only going to rise further. Despite being a bit raw, he has the altheticism and versalitiy teams are absolutely looking for in defensive backs. It's hard to imagine a scenerio where he would (or quite frankly, even should) return to Michigan in 2017.
may have his degree after this season.
He gone.
That sucks. I really like him.
Anywhere but there.
I'll root for the SEC on this one.
They lose five DBs to graduation and most expect Jabrill Peppers to be a sixth departure
a little overdone on that "blockquote"
Go Blue!
Yes, we all know he said that. But players like him don't stay four years very often at all so you have to inject some common sense as well.
Watched Cater Dunaway's Hudl video and he's better than I expected. Looks like an in-line TE who is a solid blocker (at least at the high school level) and he made some really nice catches, which suggest good hands.
His athleticism is limited, he's no Zach Gentry, but his agility and speed were decent. Solid pick-up.
The biggest question mark in this class is Benjamin St Juste. Not much video to go on. He has great size for a corner and can jump high, but who knows what else. I hope he attends a Nike camp this spring/summer.
somewhat concerning that dunaways entire junior highlight film is only like 3 mins long - if i viewed the correct film, he only showed maybe a dozen plays blocking and another dozen receiving. not exactly a wealth of tape for a big time junior prospect.
i trust harbaughs vision and coaching ability and im not knocking anyone, just pointing out theres not much on tape. i recall reading he played very little as a soph - was dunaway injured for part of his junior year?
FWIW, that class above would give us a class point total of 295.3
That would crush our last class we landed. Most of your placeholders are top 100 blue chippers so this prediction, like you stated, is unexpected and definitely on the high end.
That class this last year would have given us the #3 class (just .17 behind #2 Florida State).
on dylan moses?
I have no proof but I get the feeling he is taking bids for his services.
4 5-stars! That is USC mid-2000's level of high-end talent. I don't remember us ever getting more than 1 or maybe 2. #letshope
Allen Trieu highlights Oklahoma DT Deontre Thomas in the Detroit News today. He is 6'3", 275 pounds, and generating a lot of interest.
Thomas is currently not rated, but is apparently picking up quite a few offers and blowing up. Over at Scout, I see offers from Ole Miss, Arkansas, Kansas State, Arizona State, Texas A & M, Nebraska, Michigan, and others. 13 offers came in the last two months. This is another one Michigan apparently got in on reasonably early. A key visit is Oklahoma for their Spring game.
He is possibly looking to make a commitment in the Spring, after another visit or two.
“My options are still completely open, but I’m definitely leaning toward Michigan,”
Dissapointing to not see either Samuels or Lenoir as options at CB, the two who Michigan had highest on their board. DT is also a huge area of concern. Hopefully the team has the type of season many here expect and it gets the attention of some top guys at the end of the season. A dominant DL and CFP game would go a long ways to opening the eyes of some of those top guys, just hope it's not too late to get in on them.
It may be disappointing about Samuels, but he has been mostly expected to pick FSU.
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