Essentials

WHAT	#2 Michigan (13-0) vs #3 TCU (12-1)
WHERE	Fiesta Bowl Glendale, AZ
WHEN	4:10 Eastern
THE LINE	M –7.5
TELEVISION	ESPN (McDonough/Blackledge)
TICKETS	From $204.
WEATHER	optional

Overview

I find it useful to watch the opponent you are about to play before talking about them, a trait that not all TCU podcasters share:

For what it's worth, I went over TCU's games against KSU, KSU again, Texas, Texas Tech, and Iowa State in UFR-without-a-chart mode.

TCU's season has been an insane rollercoaster after a couple walkovers, a reasonably secure win over SMU, and a blowout of Oklahoma (6-6 entering bowl season but 20th in SP+, FWIW) to begin the season. Since:

• Kansas: TCU is outgained by about 100 yards despite the exit of Kansas starting QB Jalon Daniels and gets a go-ahead TD with a minute left.
• Okie State: TCU comes back from 14 down in the fourth quarter and wins in double OT.
• Kansas State: TCU is down 28-10 before ripping off four straight touchdowns; KSU plays most of the second half with third-string QB Jake Rubley.
• WVU: TCU wins by 10; WVU has a fourth quarter drive to tie or win that can't get off the ground before a sealing TD drive.
• Texas Tech: TCU enters the fourth quarter down 17-13 before ripping off three TD drives; Tech backup QB Tyler Shough plays about three quarters.
• Texas: TCU grinds out a 17-10 win in the season's most inexplicable Iowa Out Of Nowhere game. Quinn Ewers and his receivers conspire to blow every single chunk play opportunity.
• Baylor: TCU wins on a Drew Dileo memorial fire-drill field goal at the buzzer.
• Iowa State: is thumped.
• Kansas State 2: TCU loses in overtime after Duggan's heroic drive to tie from down eight.

On the one hand, this is not a team that has been beating teams with authority. And if you go by SP+, the narrative that TCU has been playing considerably better competition than Michigan doesn't hold water. The top end of the schedule:

M	TCU
31.4 (OSU)	23.2 (Texas)
22.7 (PSU)	23.0 (K-State)
16.2 (Illinois)	15.4 (OU)
12.9 (Iowa)	11.9 (Baylor)
11.5 (Maryland)	11.5 (Okie State)
7.7 (Purdue)	8.6 (Tech)

Michigan's schedule does drop off faster than TCU's as Iowa State and Kansas are a fair bit better than MSU and Nebraska, but only one of these teams has been threatened by a team in that area of the rankings and it isn't Michigan. Meanwhile the two highlighted lines in the chart above: OSU is vastly better than the best team TCU played and TCU is 1-1 against Kansas State while Michigan hammered PSU 41-17. ESPN has these teams #1 and #3 in strength of record; I imagine the gap here is significant. Meanwhile TCU ranks 14th in ESPN's game control metric. Michigan is second. Michigan has performed considerably better over the course of the season and has earned a 9 point SP+ edge. Also, if evaluating bowl games is still a thing the Big 12 is currently 1-5.

On the other hand, if you believe in moxie/destiny/dawg, look out.

[After THE JUMP: THEY GOT THAT DISCIPLINED ATHLETE WITH GRIT IN THEM.]

Run Offense vs TCU

the Don [Bryan Fuller]

TCU is a Big Twelve team and hoo boy things get weird in the Big 12. Almost every team I caught in my five-game tour of the league is a base 3-3-5 with three high safeties, and TCU is no exception. When the uglies get big TCU sticks with the same personnel, tightens their splits, and gets super aggressive in the back seven.

The results here have been middling at best with one exception. TCU trucked the Texas rush offense, holding Bijan Robinson to 2.9 yards per carry on just 12 carries. Texas seems exceptionally vulnerable to the guys from everywhere approach, though: they started two true freshmen and a true sophomore on their OL this year. Alex also documented maniacal behavior:

TCU is generally able to hang in against the run with their base set because their LBs are very good at recognizing gaps and getting downhill. If you don't do anything to mess with them, they will be difficult to run through once you get to the second level. Texas didn't do much of anything to put the LBs in conflict and didn't threaten vertically through the air due to a brutal day from Quinn Ewers. The result was TCU bringing the safeties down to stuff the box further and allowing the LBs to go on instinct when it looked like a run play. Any wins Texas had in the trenches were completely negated by the gaps being all gummed up and they got nothing on the ground.  …

Here's a screenshot I took of one such run giving you a Texas POV angle:

You've got doubles opening up plenty of lanes for Bijan Robinson to run through, but TCU has a player at the second level ready in every conceivable place.

Note here that the handoff has not taken place. This is pure blitzball. The cost of this was a bunch of open shots downfield that Ewers missed or his receivers dropped.

When not taking advantage of Texas issues, TCU has been… pretty bad. The Texas game stands out as a season outlier. TCU gave up 5 YPC to Kansas, Kansas State, Texas Tech(!?!), Baylor, and Iowa State; they gave up 4.7 in the Big Twelve championship game. The other there games were in the 3.4-3.9 range; Texas was literally their only legitimately good performance in conference play. Their season YPC average allowed of 4.1 is 67th nationally, and their drill-down stats are all in a similar range. Even if we're grading this on a Big 12 curve this does not look like a defense that is primed to shut down a Jim Harbaugh offense, and TCU had the advantage of backup quarterbacks in big chunks of the former three games.

TCU fans want Michigan to be like Texas.

TCU probably does not have a choice here. They start one 300-pounder, and that's true freshman three-star nose Damonic Williams. They've gotten gashed by teams that are good on the ground but are not Michigan, which averages 0.3 YPC more than any Big Twelve team despite a heavy bias towards the ground. TCU stat maven @statsowar has a "run rate over expected" metric that measures how much more likely you are to run than an average team given the situations you find yourself in. The least run-heavy team in the country is #1; Michigan is #115. (Yes, this seems backwards.) Michigan put 4.1 YPC up against elite rush Ds Iowa and Illinois. If TCU does not blitzball it they're gonna die.

So will blitzball work? Maybe sort of, in the same way Ohio State's aggressiveness worked for them for a while. The particular way in which TCU wants to play doesn't seem like a good recipe, though. Michigan's double teams have been consistently successful and when a linebacker gets nosy it doesn't matter:

OSU LB to top

This is not the Texas OL. Michigan's veteran, double Joe-Moore-winning offensive line that has spent the whole year being the kings of inside zone and duo. TCU wants to have guys show up in surprising gaps and will be trying to make this work against a Michigan team with a zillion subtle tweaks to put the opposition defenders in the wrong spot, after a month of prep. TCU will get some stuffs but it's a matter of time before the dam breaks, particularly if McCarthy is involved in the ground game early.

KEY MATCHUP: JIM HARBAUGH vs WHOOPS IS THAT AN EXTRA GAP. In addition to the above I expect Michigan will have some things that put those linebackers in the wrong gap, and then it's Donovan Edwards in the open field.

Pass Offense vs TCU

Hodges-Tomlinson is wee but mighty [TCU Athletics]

This will likely be a tale of two phases. If TCU's approach on the ground is as aggressive as projected Michigan will have plenty of opportunities to run play action and hit guys in the intermediate areas vacated by those LBs. Colston Loveland and Luke Schoonmaker could have big days. Similarly, TCU's big chonky linebackers could give off a Jacoby Windmon vibe when matched in coverage against Edwards. (Edwards is still in a cast, but one that's notably smaller and less awkward than the one he was wearing a month ago.) The prospect of Michigan's slot receivers going up against run-conflicted safeties also appeals.

The sledding will be much tougher on obvious passing downs. Tre'Vius Hodges-Tomlinson and Josh Newton, TCU's corners, are both ballhawks; both were first team All Big 12. As a team TCU contests almost 40% of opposition passes. Their completion rate allowed on those plays is 28%. (For comparison, Michigan is at 34% and 32%; Ohio State is at 29% and 35%.)

There is a cavernous gap between the two corners and everyone else in PFF stats. The CBs have grades around 80 and are giving up 37% and 34% completion rates when targeted. In a word: yow. Safety Mark Perry and all three LBs are giving up 63-78% completion rates; the third and fourth corners are good but not great. Perry and two of the three LBs get grim coverage grades. There would seem to be an imperative to attack the middle of the field on early downs, both to discombobulate the run defense and also pick up big chunks.

When forced into long yardage situations, JJ McCarthy will likely have to stand and deliver against eight man zones. (Or scramble around and deliver.) TCU is content to sit back and cover for the most part. Alex charted a three-man rush 68% of the time(!!!) against Kansas State, though he noted that TCU has been more aggressive in other games. Not that much more aggressive: TCU is 87th in sack rate and 89th on passing downs. Edge Dylan Horton is the only TCU lineman with an acceptable win rate (15%); the bulk of their other pressure comes from the linebacker level. Michigan has been very good at picking up blitzes.

From a TCU perspective, sitting back makes sense. It will restrict McCarthy's ability to break the pocket if there are a couple guys able to chase immediately, and the cost is one that seems easy to bear. TCU gives up a huge number of deep pass attempts—more than a fifth of opposition passes are 20+ yards downfield. That's almost twice Michigan's number. Those are complete about a third of the time, and Michigan has been notably bad at throwing it deep even after McCarthy had success in the two most recent games.

Edwards will be key. If he's more or less full go as a receiver he presents a dilemma when he splits wide. You can spend one of the two elite corners on him and free up one of Michigan's receivers to the interior, or you can try to zone him and hope he doesn't see a hole shot, or you can wander a safety out there and hope he holds up. (If a TCU linebacker follows him outside that is a McCray-vs-Barkley situation.) Colston Loveland would also be an interesting guy to motion wide since the TCU CBs are very good but not very big; Hodges-Tomlinson in particular is 5'9" and a repeat of the back-shoulder TD against Purdue is easy to envision.

Also key: McCarthy maintaining his recent deep accuracy. There were the OSU shots, of course, but he also dropped in a few balls over the top of Purdue linebackers in the Big Ten championship game. The season-long issues throwing deep stand in contrast to McCarthy's 2021, when he completed 6/10 deep balls for 25 yards an attempt. This year he has much more sample size, unfortunately, but I still think it's in there.

KEY MATCHUP: DONOVAN EDWARDS vs DONOVAN EDWARDS'S THUMB. Edwards's ability out of the backfield is potentially crippling to the structure of the TCU defense if he is able to go get passes downfield.

Run Defense vs TCU

Kendre Miller is a high end prospect [TCU Athletics]

Well: poop. This space has spent a lot of time talking about how a mobile quarterback amps up your offensive explosiveness, and now we're the tweet.

QB Max Duggan has 89 non-sack rushes on the year that are averaging 6.6 yards a pop. 26 are scrambles; Duggan is only running the ball in designed situations five times a game. And yet, it's enough. TCU leads the Big 12 in long plays from scrimmage all the way from 10+ yards to 70+. There are a lot of reasons for that, but they don't include the OL (much); Duggan's combination of arm and legs is pure hell to defend, and when things get desperate for TCU they pull out all the stops.

Duggan runs are disproportionately redzone and key downs, a la Dantonio-era MSU QBs. He's probably about as fast as McCarthy and brings considerably more oomph when he's got the ball. McCarthy has hinted at some upside in that department, but for Duggan it's an every-down proposition.

Meanwhile Kendre Miller is the guy doing the majority of the ball-carrying. Because TCU is not Michigan he only averages about 16 rushes per game but he takes advantage of those. That's not to say TCU is particularly rush-averse despite being as an Air Raid Big 12 team. While they don't run the ball as much as Michigan they have a positive run rate over expected, and Miller has racked up over 1300 yards this season

Miller is drawing considerable NFL draft attention. PFN says he's a top-five back in the class and a likely day two pick:

… dense, well-leveraged back at 6’0", 220 pounds. … explosive athlete with great foot speed … explosive gear … can quickly throttle up and attack the outside, showing exceptional control. …Even more impressive than Miller’s burst is his agility and twitch as a runner. … tremendous natural balance … recalibrates and resets his feet to stay up through contact, and his constant leg churn makes him very hard to stall 1-on-1. … smart, patient runner who can manipulate the defense’s field of vision and hide behind blocks to freeze defenders … isn’t quite a bruiser. He won’t consistently truck through tackle attempts head-on.

Not to alarm, but there are shades of Kenneth Walker here; Miller is able to press inside in situations where his blocking isn't doing much and then burst outside the tackles.

And his blocking is iffy at times. Only guard Steve Avila is on NFL draft radars and Alex didn't see anything worth a star (or a cyan, to be fair). My impression after watching TCU extensively is that this OL is more or less what would happen if you dumped Minnesota's OL on a Big 12 team. This is mostly a compliment for purposes of evaluating a ground game. The starters are generally huge but lack NFL athleticism; the tackles actually grade out best to PFF (caveats apply but it's some data). The interior has been a little sketchy against teams that don't have the DT pairing (and depth) Michigan does. Also, while TE Jared Wiley is grading out okay at PFF I caught five or six –2 events in my review of TCU games; I strongly believe he is getting dumptrucked in this game.

Meanwhile the Michigan run defense is almost all green on PFF save for RJ Moten, who's missed a bunch of tackles and checks in with a 57. Jenkins, Smith, Graham, Morris, Okie, Bennie, Colson, Moore, Sainristil, and Makari Paige all check in with scores of 70+. This should be an advantage for Michigan on the interior.

That will probably not be enough of an advantage to completely shut down a very good back operating with a mobile QB and some scary wide receivers. It seems like it's good enough to at least try the OSU/Keon Coleman gameplan and operate with light boxes for the most part in the hopes you can contain the TCU ground game decently while bracketing the go routes the Horned Frogs excel at. K-State is the best B12 defense by some distance per SP+, and while Alex noted a couple of bounces against K-State that gained 35 yards…

Miller was held reasonably in check by KSU's good defense (82 yards on 17 carries), largely due to the blocking in front of him, but against a wasteland of pathetic Big XII defenses for much of the season, Miller torched his competition and compiled this highlight reel:

Miller has good acceleration when he gets space in the open field, and his shiftiness to juke is fun to watch. He's not an obvious bruiser, but at 220, Miller isn't the easiest to bring down either.

…Miller was not able to do much inside the tackles in that game, something Michigan will hope to replicate. On the other hand: Miller did go for 153 on 29 carries in the first matchup. Shutting down all the bits of this offense at the same time is a tall task.

KEY MATCHUP: MICHIGAN DTs vs ONE DOUBLE. Job one for this defense is winning 3-on-2 matchups on the defensive interior so that Michigan can spend the extra guy on Duggan or Johnston. TCU does not go heavy except in short yardage, and as previously stated I think Wiley's going to get obliterated by Morris so Jenkins or Smith is getting a single block most of the day.

Pass Defense vs TCU

maximum dawg [TCU Athletics]

In May the USA soccer blog Backheeled ran an overtly, intentionally stupid feature titled "THE ANTI-ANALYSIS USMNT JUNE ROSTER ANALYSIS" that has stuck with me since because it placed players in a matrix like so:

This was not meant to be serious analysis but… I mean… it is?

I have thought about adapting this to Michigan players and may get around to it eventually, but facing Max Duggan almost immediately after facing CJ Stroud demands I bring this structure of thought to the American footballing public. Here is what you need to know about Max Duggan: he rates moderately high on the That Boy Nice scale, and he is Weston McKennie after McKennie ate Frankie Hedjuk on the Got That Dawg In Him scale. CJ Stroud maxes out That Boy Nice and has the least amount of dawg that has ever been recorded.

The ramifications of this on the ground have already been addressed. When Duggan drops back this means a few different things:

• Duggan would rather die a thousand deaths than live to fight another down.
• When he breaks the pocket he's usually looking to run.
• His accuracy is generally not NFL-quality with one exception.
• That exception is 40 yard fades, on which he is nails. Also there is one other exception.
• That exception is anything that is ludicrous in a high leverage situation, which, again, nails.

This means that Duggan murders drives and resurrects them. He is God and the devil. He is Sean Clifford when Sean Clifford has a really nice dream in which he wins the Super Bowl and only 59% of Penn State fans are still mad at him. He's terrifying, unless he isn't.

Duggan gets a lot of help from his receivers. Quentin Johnston is probably headed for the top end of the NFL Draft, slot Derius Davis is an elite returner and looks dangerous on short stuff, 6'7" tight end Jared Wiley gives off Mike Gesicki vibes, and slot Quincy Brown is just as explosive as Johnston on a yards per catch basis and grades out about as well. Only Savion Williams, who is 6'5" but kind of a stiff, is relatively un-threatening. It should be noted that both Johnston and Davis have low catch rates of around 63%. In Johnston's case that's not just because he's running a bunch of stuff downfield; PFF's hands grade for him is just 52.

Duggan doesn't get much help from his offensive line. TCU's middling sack rate allowed (69th) is a testament to Duggan's escapability, as both the eye test and PFF grading indicate this is a substandard unit. PFF OL grading caveats apply but they have something called "true pass set" that cuts out play action, screens, rollouts, three-man rushes, and unusual time-to-throw events. TCU's got three starters grading out around 50 in those situations, and the number of true dropbacks (just a third of their pass attempts) is an indicator that TCU tries to avoid them. (On the other hand, Trevor Keegan has a 30 true pass set grade and Oluwatimi is at 58 when I think I have him for a total of four pass pro minuses on the year, so YMMV.) Meanwhile Wiley and Miller rarely stay in, so max pro is almost unheard of. It'll be one-on-one matchups. And when Duggan does get got, it's frequently the kind of sack that's –14 yards instead of –2.

Mike Morris, Texas Tech Edition, had a game against TCU earlier this year [Fuller]

As far as approach goes, TCU is heavily biased towards extremes. When Bill Connelly pulled some passing game stats for an Interesting Tweet a couple weeks back, a few things jumped out. One: over a third of TCU passes are behind the line of scrimmage. This should be advantage Michigan. TCU is good but not great on those, averaging 5.2 yards a pop. Michigan is elite defending screens, giving up just 2.9 yards per screen attempt. I do think Davis is dangerous and may be a step up from the various mugs in the Big Ten trying to run this stuff.

Two: TCU's deep shot (20+ air yards) completion rate is a stunning 49%. Watching TCU games often felt like a whole bunch of nothing and then Duggan would complete a bomb downfield. Most of those bombs are straight-up go routes on the sideline when TCU sees single high coverage, and as mentioned that's Duggan's best throw. His outside receivers are 6'4" and 6'5" and excel at contested catches, particularly Johnston. This looks like a trouble spot unless Michigan can get away with the second half Keon Coleman gameplan—all brackets all the time. Michigan corners can run but DJ Turner and Gemon Green can be victimized even when they're in the ballpark. The savvy push-off on Green that got Marvin Harrison Jr loose for OSU's long touchdown in the Game is something Johnston has in his bag of tricks as well.

Michigan, at least, is well schooled at not letting balls go over the top. Only 11% of opponent balls are deep shots and they defend those almost as well as TCU's excellent corners. TCU meanwhile does not go deep much more often than an average team despite their tremendous success rate, probably because their OL tends to get overwhelmed.

For Michigan, a key will be to rush responsibly and still get pressure. This is on Mike Morris more than anyone else; both tackles are susceptible to bull rushes and his pass rush win rate of 21% is elite. Michigan is capable of the kind of pocket constriction rush that is most effective against a scrambler like Duggan. There is a relative comparable on the TCU schedule: 6'6", 280-pound Texas Tech end Tyree Wilson. Like Morris, Wilson is projected as a late first or early second round NFL prospect. The scouting is very similar ("uses his strength to dominate … uses his momentum combined with his size and strength to bull-rush offensive linemen and collapse the pocket"). The two guys grade out very similarly at PFF, and Wilson nuked TCU for a sack, three hits, three pressures, and a 30% win rate. Tech racked up four sacks and constant pressure otherwise. It was not a coincidence that TCU did not score an offensive touchdown in the first three quarters of that game.

Other than that, contested balls on fly routes is the biggest hinge point in the game.

KEY MATCHUP: WILL JOHNSON vs THE WOODSONENING? Johnson's two picks against Purdue were spectacular and indicative of a guy who may be on another level when it comes to making plays on the ball. Is Michigan comfortable with going away from their left/right scheme and putting him one on one in the boundary?

SPECIAL TEAMS

FEI has these units in a virtual dead heat. Derius Davis is an elite punt returner with five touchdowns on 43 career return opportunities. His career return average is a whopping 14.5. Normally this would be a shrug since Brad Robbins induces fair catches like Jim Harbaugh induces mania amongst Michigan State fans, but Robbins has struggled over the past four or five games. Hopefully that was a nagging injury that's now healed. Giving Davis return opportunities is a very bad idea.

Davis is also the main punt returner and has not done much this year; he did have a TD in 2021.

TCU punter Jordy Sandy is pretty bad if you're looking at net yards—his 37.9 is second to last in the Big 12—but he's only given up 29 return yards this year because under 10% of his punts are returned. This is good enough to slot him in as an average-ish punter in FEI.

Kicker Griffin Kell is elite; he's 16/18 on the season with just one miss under 50; he has a long of 54. He's missed two extra points, though? Kickoff guy Luke Laminack does give up return opportunities, with about half of his kickoffs brought out.

KEY MATCHUP:  AHHHH YOU RETURN TO BEING PUNT GOD PLEASE

INTANGIBLES

CHEAP THRILLS

Worry if…

• Michigan is unable to make TCU pay for blitzball linebackers.
• McCarthy is not taking the shots that are on the table.
• Davis gets returnable punts.

Cackle with knowing glee if…

• Olu and Zinter are dumping the nose so fast that the LBs blitzballing doesn't matter.
• Donovan Edwards is a fully operational battle station.
• Mike Morris is crushing the pocket.

Fear/Paranoia Level: 5 (Baseline: 5;  +1 for Weston McKennie After Eating Frankie Hedjuk QB, +1 for Also Marvin Harrison Jr, +1 for Team Of Destiny Junk, +1 for Michigan Fan Paranoia, –1 for 3-3-5 With Freshman Nose, –1 for A Series Of Completely Improbable Escapes Against Teams That Aren't That Good And Frequently Used Backup QBs, –1 for You Want To Blitzball Olu?, +1 for What If JJ Reverts On Deep Balls, –1 for Don't Matter To Colston Loveland's Infinite Catching Radius, –1 for A Touchdown And Change Spread)

Desperate need to win level: 10 (Baseline: 5; +5 for We're Talking About Playoffs)

Loss will cause me to… let it ride: we're not beating Georgia.

Win will cause me to… we're so beating Georgia.

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:

Given the results in literally every game against a team with a pulse not named Texas, TCU is going to get mashed on the ground. Meanwhile Michigan's DL with a full-go Mike Morris looks like it will at least match and probably give the business to the TCU OL. The trenches look like a major Michigan advantage.

TCU wins by 1) forcing a bunch of field goals, 2) Duggan going off, or 3) the usual combination of severe outlier plays (turnovers, punt return TD, etc) that result in upsets. All of these are possible but unlikely.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid on Saturday:

• Donovan Edwards hits a long run play and a long reception.
• Duggan gets sacked four times.
• Quentin Johnston dunks on a Michigan cornerback.
• Michigan, 32-20.