UPDATE: By demand. Full-size.

 

Essentials

WHAT	#2 Michigan (0-0) vs East Carolina (0-0)
WHERE	Michigan Stadium Ann Arbor, MI
WHEN	12:00 Eastern
THE LINE	M –36.0 (Vegas)  M -41.0 (Bill C)
TELEVISION	Peacock
TICKETS	From $76.
WEATHER	partly cloudy 11 mph wind 84 degrees

Overview

The long and winding path to eternal college football glory for Michigan's 2023 season begins tomorrow with one of three non-conference tune-ups. First up on the schedule are the East Carolina Pirates, the first ever meeting between ECU and the Wolverines. The Pirates hail from the American Athletic Conference and are coming off a solid 8-5 campaign, albeit one that failed to meet the lofty expectations the program had going into the year. Now comes the projected fall, as the Pirates sustained heavy losses on both sides of the football in the offseason: Bill Connelly ranked ECU 130th out of 133 teams in returning production back in February, and that was before they sustained further losses via the portal post-spring. This team is completely different. 

Mike Houston is a good coach who has won everywhere he's been, Lenoir-Rhyne (DII), The Citadel (FCS), James Madison (then-FCS), and now East Carolina. ECU was 9-27 in the three seasons preceding Mike Houston's arrival and it took him a few years to get them off the ground. They went 4-8 in 2019, then 3-6 in the abridged COVID season. After the pandemic, Houston got ECU to bowl eligibility with a 7-5 season (the Military Bowl was never played due to BC withdrawing after a virus outbreak). They loaded up to go all-in for 2022 with veteran players across the roster, but had an infuriating repeat 7-5 season, losing games by 1, 2, and 3 points. A season-ending bowl win over neighboring Coastal Carolina was merely a small treat to numb the pain of the 2022 season.  

[AFTER THE JUMP: Positional groups against other positional groups]

 

[247Sports]

Run Offense vs East Carolina

The strength of ECU's defense is likely their defensive line. On a team of massive instability and fresh faces, the Pirates do have three returning starters on the DL, ones who profile better as run defenders than as pass-rushers. Last season the team was 21st nationally in rushing yards against per game, allowing 118.9, and they'll look to build on that this season, drawing upon the experience in the trenches. 

East Carolina runs a 3-3-5, with a rush EDGE who you can count as a fourth DL if you so choose. Chad Stephens plays one EDGE spot with a hand in the dirt, weighing in at 261, next to a pair of defensive tackles, the light Elijah Morris (264) and the larger D'Anta Johnson (294). Their backups are both pretty experienced too, which includes the behemoth NT Jason Shuford (6'4, 322), who I assume will come in for short yardage situations and rushing downs. When you factor in the rush EDGE Jeremy Lewis, who is better as a run defender than a pass-rusher, you have a unit that was pretty strong against the run last season against Group of 5 offenses. 

Of course, we're talking about Michigan here, not your run of the mill Gof5 offense. And while Morris and backup JD Lampley have proven themselves to be solid FBS football players, it's hard to think they will be able to hang in there at all against Michigan's big big boys on the interior. Now, ECU is going to want to do what most 3-3-5 teams want their DL to do, jam it up and let their linebackers go to work. They may be able to be a nuisance, but it's hard to see them outright winning battles. 

[247Sports]

Which puts a focus on the linebackers, who are a weakness for the Pirates. The LB room was decimated in the offseason, leaving a hodgepodge of up-transfers from the FCS, returning players who were seldom used, and one down-transfer from the P5. BJ Davis from South Carolina State and Teylor Jackson (the only returning LB to log >100 snaps last year) may be in line to start at WILL and MIKE, respectively, but I am not sure how set that is. These two players will be going through baptism by fire tomorrow, but the same could be said for their backups. When ECU lifts the rush EDGE for a true SAM, it will be UNC transfer RaRa Dillworth, an erstwhile blue chipper who was atrocious last season and got bounced from the ACC. If you're DC Blake Harrell, you can't feel great about putting a lot on the plate of these LBs, but when there are 260 lb. defensive linemen going up against Zak Zinter, you don't have a choice. It just likely won't end well for your defense. 

KEY MATCHUP: MICHIGAN'S IOL vs. UNDERSIZED DTs. We saw this matchup last year many times, Nebraska perhaps most famously. Michigan's IOL against a team with undersized DTs and most of the time it resulted in the opposition getting blown out of the water up front. If that is happening to ECU, given the state of their LB room, there could be huge chunk gains to be had for Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards on the ground. 

 

Julius Wood [His Twitter]

Pass Offense vs East Carolina

If Michigan wants to get JJ McCarthy going and show that their passing attack will be a greater focus of the offense in 2023, this game will likely be a fine opportunity for them to do so. ECU was so-so at generating sacks last season and their secondary also has been completely blown up in the offseason. Even with some receivers banged up, the home team should have no trouble moving the ball on the Pirate pass defense tomorrow. 

The same defensive front mentioned in the previous section was quite solid against the run last season. It didn't do all that much in the way of generating pass rush. The team ranked middle of the FBS in sack rate, but the reality is probably worse than that: PFF ranked ECU 125th in team pass rush grade. For example, Jeremy Lewis, their rush EDGE, is a much better player against the run and doesn't offer too much pass rush, despite it being a key duty of his hybrid role. None of their DTs had better than a 61 grade in pass rush and Lewis was the best pass-rusher among the EDGEs last season. They will likely blitz their LBs and DBs because that's what a 3-3-5 defense does, but I don't see much potential for organic pass rush. In some ways this will be a decent first litmus test for Michigan's tackles, because if ECU is getting organic pressure, that will be a pretty bad sign. 

As for the secondary, ECU does roll over two starting safeties, Teagan Wilk and Julius Wood. They rotated with a now-departed third safety last season, so this won't be their first rodeo. The bad news is that the cornerbacks are all new, losing their top four corners from last season. Shavon Revel, an ex-JUCOer may get the start at one outside corner job, while the other could be between a few players. Isaiah Brown-Murray is only 5'9" and redshirted last season, so good luck projecting him. Other options are again a mix of FCS up-transfers and P5 down-transfers. For many (all?) of the corners ECU uses tomorrow, their trip to the Big House will be their first real dose of FBS action. Having decent returning safeties can help, but they won't help that much. 

KEY MATCHUP: FRESHMAN WRs vs. PATCHWORK GROUP OF FIVE SECONDARY. Let's be real here. Michigan's starting WRs can probably cook these guys, especially when McCarthy will likely have plenty of time to throw. The point of this sort of game is to see players further down the depth chart and we've heard lots of good things about Michigan's freshman receivers in camp, with pledges that they will play in the opener. Let's see them against this hodge-podge DB group! 

 

[ECU Athletics]

Run Defense vs East Carolina

ECU got raided (shouldn't pirates be doing the raiding?) after spring practice on the OL and as a result, their blocking situation will likely be a lot worse than it could have been. After all the smoke had cleared, the wreckage of the sunken pirate ship revealed only one returning OL starter, serviceable RG Isaiah Foote. An injury to a transfer OL has shuffled some things around ($), but the collection of players on the OL for ECU will likely include a decent USF transfer (Dustyn Hall), last year's 6th man, a former walk-on program guy, a RS Fr, and then Foote. Uh huh. 

East Carolina's OL from last season ranked in the 100s in various run blocking metrics in Football Outsiders' stats and this group will likely be significantly worse. It will be surprising if they get any push whatsoever against Michigan's monstrous defensive interior, as well as EDGE players who play the run extremely well. This is all a long way of saying that I think you ought to say a few prayers right now for the well being of their running backs right now. 

Those running backs are filling a gargantuan hole left by departing star RB Keaton Mitchell and it seems like it'll be a tandem of some sort doing the job. These players were a clear step down from Mitchell last season and probably don't have the mind-bending evasion needed to muster a meaningful day on the ground if their blockers are being fed to the crocodiles. Marlon Gunn Jr. and Rahjai Harris each got 67 carries last season, Harris more of a Mooseback, though they are similar weights. Gerald Green transfers in from Georgia Southern and is the third name to know here. 

There is some QB uncertainty for ECU (more on that shortly), so it's hard to project perfectly but there will probably be some QB run involved. They run an RPO-heavy offense that saw Holton Ahlers (last year's starter) carry it 72 times last season including sacks. ECU gave up very few sacks as a team, so you're looking at 4-5 non-sack carries per game in 2022. Not a ton, but a few here and there. I'd expect that regardless of who the QB is tomorrow. 

KEY MATCHUP: MICHIGAN STAR DTs vs. IS AN ECU RB MAGICALLY KENNETH WALKER III? That's honestly the only question. If Michigan's DL is gobbling up the ECU OL, the only path for ECU to have a strong ground game is for one of these RBs to morph into Kenneth Walker III, which would seem to be a <0.1% probability but you can never be certain. 

 

[Rob Goldberg]

Pass Defense vs East Carolina

If there is one phase of the game that may be interesting to watch tomorrow, it's probably this one. The cat has started to creep out of the bag that Michigan has injuries in the secondary, with speculation that both starting safeties could sit, as could Will Johnson, who is at the tail-end of his recovery from a more-publicized offseason surgery. In which case we could see the first real doses of Keon Sabb, Zeke Berry, Josh Wallace, and Ja'Den McBurrows, not to mention other players in the DB room. Intrigue! 

The ECU Pirates have said "see you laterrrrrrrrr" to Holton Ahlers at QB and are saying "ahoy matey!" to uh, somebody. The long-running presumption has been that Mason Garcia, a respectable 4* in 2020 who has waited three years for his turn at the helm, will get to steer the ship. Mike Houston is not confirming or denying that, simply telling us to wait and see in his most recent public comments. I still would bet it's Garcia because he was the highest rated recruit ever signed by the program and he's been in the program for years so you'd think he'd know the playbook. But they haven't totally ruled out the possibility that Alex Flinn, a total Who Dat recruit when he came out of HS in 2019, could win the job. ECU people still expect it to be Garcia. 

Garcia is a massive dude, 6'5 and 249 lbs. and has been groomed for this job. You have to think he'd have the RPOs down. His main targets will probably be 6'2 Jaylen Johnson at WR, who profiles as a contested catch guy, and TE Shane Calhoun, a blocky-catchy sort of player who reeled in 25 balls last season as a reserve. Jsi Hatfield is a deep threat to keep an eye on, while the rest of the depth chart is either new or former transfers. If we were FFFFing this game there probably isn't a star in the receiving corps but then again, I'm not sure there's a star on this offense with so many fresh faces getting a massive step up in role. 

[247Sports]

As for the pass protection, ECU graded out very well in Football Outsiders' sack rate metrics, in the upper echelon of the FBS last season. Unfortunately, as we noted, this is a totally different line. It'll probably be much worse! The two tackles are projected to be first-time starters at the position, one of whom is a former walk-on kicking out from center. No, I wouldn't expect this to be a repeat of last year's season opener when Michigan faced a team that turned out to be the literal worst pass blocking team in the FBS, but there should be plenty of organic pressure if Michigan's EDGEs are worth anything at a P5 level. 

KEY MATCHUP: YOUNG DBs vs. MIDDLING GROUP OF FIVE WRs. Much like the Pass Offense vs. ECU, I'm most interested in the backups here... except the backups are probably the starters. We will likely see more snaps of Sabb, Berry, and McBurrows tomorrow in one afternoon than we saw all of last season. That's exciting! They're going up against receivers who are meh for the Group of Five, so this should be an ease-in. You can never overreact to Week One until you get more weeks of data, but it probably won't be a great sign if someone in the secondary is getting dunked on by these wideouts. 

 

SPECIAL TEAMS

Kicking was a massive thorn in the side of ECU last season, especially early on. The emergence of Andrew Conrad helped settle things down, going 8/12 on FGs with a long of 47 and crucially, 26/26 on PATs. Now a sophomore, Conrad is fine. The punter is grad transfer Archer Trafford from Mississippi State (and Air Force before that). He's new to the program but was a starting punter for the Bulldogs in 2021. Last year he punted 16 times with an average of 42.6. Also fine. They did have a great kickoff return unit last year (2nd in the FEI data!) thanks to returner Jsi Hatfield, who ran one back against Houston, so I guess watch out for that. 

Michigan debuts their new-look specialists unit tomorrow, with James Turner taking over as kicker and Tommy Doman as punter. We also get to see who is returning punts and kicks after wild speculation in spring practice. Hopefully we are treated to Alex Orji on the kickoff and Kalel Mullings on punt returns because why not. 

KEY MATCHUP: AHHH YOU PUT IT THROUGH THE UPRIGHTS 

 

INTANGIBLES

CHEAP THRILLS

Worry if...

• Mason Garcia was secretly a star QB and Mike Houston was trying to Zordich us 
• Michigan's tackles are struggling against this group of pass rushers 
• Young DBs get lost creating early points for ECU 

Cackle with glee if...

• The game is as lopsided in the trenches as this preview suggests 
• JJ McCarthy comes out slinging the ball and the ECU corners are overmatched 
• Blake Corum rips off several long runs and reminds us that football is back 

Fear/Paranoia Level: 1 (Baseline: +5; +1 for Intriguing Group of 5 team that was solid last year, -4 for But they lost all their good players, +6 for Noon home game season opener on a new TV provider against frisky team from North Carolina where you're a massive favorite in an all-in senior-laden season, -3 for Yeah but Jim Harbaugh is not late stage Lloyd Carr, -3 for Undersized defensive tackles against Zak Zinter, -3 for Hodgepodge OL against Kris Jenkins and Mason Graham, -1 for Scotch tape secondary against JJ McCarthy)

Loss will cause me to ... commit Seppuku at the thought of ingesting social media discourse surrounding The Horror, 2.0  

Win will cause me to ... mildly grin and carry on with my College Football-watching day 

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict: 

So I get why some people have some cause for concern, inexperienced DBs getting lots of snaps, but I don't see a major path for ECU to be terribly competitive in this game considering the mismatches at the line of scrimmage. ECU finished 63rd in SP+ last season, akin to Michigan State, and now returns less production than almost any other team in the FBS. As we discussed last season when Michigan played Hawaii, teams that rank at the very bottom of the returning production metrics often see catastrophic drops in their caliber of play. ECU has undersized DTs going up against Michigan's defensive front. They have an all-new OL going up against a Michigan line with certified stars. Football is said to be won in the trenches and if that's the case, the game will probably be over in a hurry. 

I do think there may be a few hiccups in the secondary here and there for Michigan, but will those hiccups actually result in plays of consequence for ECU? That depends on them having the protection to execute the play and a QB to get it there, which is very much up in the air. Maybe there will be some hiccups on the Michigan OL as it learns to gel with the unit that is put out there. But again, will that result in anything? If receivers aren't being covered, which is also a question with all new cornerbacks for the Pirates, then it may not matter whatsoever or be noticeable. There are some things to like about ECU's team and I think the program is in good hands with Mike Houston but the way the cards lay out, it's hard for me to say this registers at all on the #UpsetWatch scale. 

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid tomorrow: 

• Fred Moore reels in his first career TD 
• Mason Graham and Kris Jenkins each collect a sack  
• Michigan 53-11