[Bryan Fuller]

Preview 2023: Five Questions, Five Answers On Defense Comment Count

Brian September 1st, 2023 at 12:53 PM

Previously: Podcast 15.0A, 15.0B, 15.0C. The Story. Quarterback. Running Back. Wide Receiver. Tight End. Interior OL. Defensive Interior. Edge. Linebacker. Cornerback. Safety. Special Teams. 5Q5A Offense.

1. uhhhh

You're supposed to ask pressing questions about the upcoming season on the defensive side of the ball.

So what do I say after "what's the deal with CB2?"

You could ask about how far various up and comers can get in an offseason, maybe?

Hasn't that been addressed in the position previews? Also CB2? Isn't this supposed to be a high-level overview? What were last year's questions?

Other than the "well?" at the end of all these posts, they were:

  1. Does losing Mike Macdonald matter?
  2. What are we gonna do without Hutchabo?
  3. For the love of God are we ever going to get competent defending tempo?
  4. Is Ben Herbert that dude?

So there's no DC change, tempo seems fixed because Minter spent a bunch of time in college, Ben Herbert is obviously that dude. The Hutchabo thing I can probably spin into a question. What else?

Junior Colson?

Fine.

1. What's the deal with CB2?

Capital of you to ask, young fellow. Because the 2023 Michigan Wolverines are by far the most loaded edition this blog has ever tried to preview this stands out as The Worry Spot, but… it will be fine. Trying to find three guys out of six randos is a problem. (Cue Rich Rodriguez weeping with a lighter in the air.) Trying to find one guy out of… uh… let's see… eight options is probably not one, especially when option one has 2200 college football snaps under his belt.

All defenses work around their limitations and last year's defense finished 15th in SP+ despite having defensive ends that couldn't rush the passer and a linebacker corps that was cobbled together from converted vipers and a guy who probably shouldn't have entered the starting lineup until this year. If everything else hits the middle of expectation city, a moderate downgrade from UDFA Gemon Green to Josh Wallace—if that's even a downgrade—just isn't going to register. And that's foreclosing the possibility that someone jets past midseason, which is a 30% shot.

Michigan should have sufficient strengths that they can carry an adequate player at CB2, and that's the floor here thanks to Wallace.

[After THE JUMP: give me that old time quarterback murder]

2. Can we get back to a facsimile of Hutchabo?

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newly ensvletivized Moore could break out [Barron]

At DE? No. As a four man rush? Maybe.

First we need to establish that Michigan's rush was devastated by the loss of the two first-rounders.  There's a prediction below about Michigan increasing its sack total minus the two first-round DEs that is technically correct—Michigan went from 34 to 37—but not spiritually correct because Michigan racked up 14 of its sacks against Colorado State and Indiana, two of the most abominable pass pro lines in college football. (I did not say FBS.) Add in Iowa and Nebraska and a third of Michigan's regular-season opponents finished 118th or worse in PFF's pass protection grading.

Focus on The Game and there's a different story to be told.

  • 2021: Michigan has 31 pressures on 53 Stroud dropbacks with four sacks and four hits.
  • 2022: Michigan has 11 pressures on 50 Stroud dropbacks with one sack and one hit.

This is a major reason that the 2021 game felt like a dominant Michigan win where Ohio State wide receivers were keeping the Buckeyes on life support and the 2022 game felt like Michigan was hanging on for dear life until their third long touchdown.

2022 would have been much better if Mike Morris was available, granted. But he's no longer around so the question is: how does Michigan get back to 2021 here? By committee. For real this time.

While no one is likely to blow up into Hutchinson, there's considerable room for optimism. First, the thing to not be optimistic about: your author does not personally believe in the offseason "Jaylen Harrell can rush the passer now" hype because folks who can rush the passer inevitably flash and Harrell's been on the field for so many snaps that a flash would have happened by now if it was ever going to.

Everything else seems like an upwards arrow, at least relative to the back third of the season where Morris was unavailable or so hampered he might as well have been. By position:

  • Weakside end: Harrell's going to get a bunch of snaps but on passing downs Michigan will bring in Rooster Uche, AKA Josiah Stewart.
  • Three-tech: Kris Jenkins has twenty more pounds and a late-season surge to build on.
  • Nose: Mason Graham matched Mazi Smith's pass rush win rate as a true freshman and has the potential to blow up.
  • Strongside end: Either Braiden McGregor or Derrick Moore would do well to match Mike Morris's 2022, but Morris missed Illinois, (most of) OSU, and Purdue and was hampered against TCU. If either hulks up and reaches the critical parts of the schedule full-go they would improve on Michigan's 2022 production, which was those guys but younger.

Michigan gets freshman-to-sophomore transitions from Moore and Graham, and that's where the great leap forward is likely to occur. Both guys had incredible-for-a-freshman win rates (Moore 14%, Graham 11% as a DT) and have drawn enough offseason chatter/phonebooks/spring game demolition to project those arrows are still straight up. Jenkins, meanwhile, has the air of a guy who just needed one extra step to get  there and those 20 pounds he put on will take that extra step directly through the chest of a despairing offensive lineman.

This is to say that between Moore, Graham, Jenkins, Stewart, and maybe McGregor Michigan will be deploying artillery closer to Hutchabo than last year's fairly anemic output. Call it 85%; pressures on 45% of OSU dropbacks if you hold OSU pass protection constant. (You should not do this.)

3. What's the next most important thing to get right this year?

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got u [Barron]

That would be Junior Colson running in the right direction. Seth spent a lot of time last year calling Colson the reincarnation of Jonas Muton, the Rodriguez-era linebacker who would put up scores in the vicinity of +12 –13 = –1. This was deeply, crushingly accurate. From the LB preview:

However many good or bad events of Colson's you're remembering from last season, you're not remembering enough of them. Some of this was the Ravens defense putting more on linebackers than most, some of it opponents identifying a weakness. Mostly it was just Janus Colson.

The arrow is pointed in the right direction. Colson went from a –29.5 as a freshman to a –3 as a sophomore and saw his PFF grading leap up almost 30 points. And as Seth pointed out, NFL types are looking at the guy's raw athletic package and going AWOOOOGA with their eyes popping out and their tongue unrolling on the floor, sort of thing.

Nobody on this roster has anywhere close to the variance that Colson does. The most variable guy on offense is JJ McCarthy, who is already established as a very good college quarterback. The next-most variable guy on defense is probably Mason Graham or Derrick Moore, but in both of those cases Michigan has a reasonable alternative if they don't blow up. Michigan does not have another Junior Colson on the roster.

I think Colson will get there. Just delete his freshman year entirely. Devin Bush redshirted. Devin. Bush. Michigan fans have seen a season's worth of mistakes that every other linebacker in Michigan history got to do in the privacy of a closed practice. Colson's got a linebackers coach who was very successful in a previous stint here, he's an immigrant who came to football late, he has all the talent in the world.

It's not reasonable to expect Colson to drop all the goofy bits out of his game in an offseason but a repeat of last year's improvement is in the realm of possibility, which would get him to +30 in UFR and All Conference-level PFF grading.

4. Do you ever get the feeling this is all too good to be true and that you will wake up from this beautiful dream to find you're in Michigan Stadium, it's 2023, Brady Hoke is still the coach, and Michigan is losing to Rutgers 27-19 with four minutes left in the game?

Michigan was losing to Rutgers in the second half last year! Therefore this must be reality.

5. Well?

Defensive continuity is a beautiful thing. Michigan returns eight starters and almost the entire defensive braintrust. They're in year three of Ravens D, But College. Two of the three guys stepping into the starting lineup are Mason Graham and (maybe, probably) Derrick Moore; one of them is already performing at an All Big Ten level and the other one profiles as a massive breakout candidate.

Last year's defense looked considerably more shaky than this and still finished 9th in SP+; they held OSU to 23 points, three in the second half. I mean… how are you supposed to temper expectations here? I punted on question four because there are not four questions about the 2023 Michigan defense. There are three.

Good God.

BETTER

  • Beef Jenkins > Less Beef Jenkins
  • Older Benny, Grant > 2022 Benny, Grant, Graham
  • Stewart passing downs >> Upshaw/Harrell passing downs
  • Junior Colson > sophomore Colson (probably)
  • Actual LB Michael Barrett > transitioning from Viper Barrett
  • Sophomore Rolder and Ernest Hausmann >> Please Let Kalel Mullings play RB
  • Sophomore Will Johnson with 100% of passing snaps >> Freshman Johnson evolving into starter.
  • Older Rod Moore, Makari Paige > younger versions

SAME

  • Harrell run downs == Harrell run downs
  • Mike Sainristil == Mike Sainristil
  • Mason Graham == Mazi Smith (I SAID IT)
  • Derrick Moore blowup + Braiden McGregor == Mike Morris for 2/3rds of the season and not the most important bits

WORSE

  • CB2 < Gemon Green/DJ Turner

LAST YEAR'S STUPID PREDICTIONS

DJ Turner is All Big Ten and a first round pick. He doesn't get Thorpe chatter because he's avoided.

Second team and second round. Close enough? One point.

Michigan's sack count goes up from last year's 34, but no individual picks up more than 6.

37 was the total but Mike Morris did grab 7.5 despite missing a third of the season. Half point.

Mazi Smith is 0.8 Mo Hursts and is a second-round pick.

He was more like 0.7 Mo Hursts but went at the tail end of the first. One point.

Linebacker remains a trouble spot all year, with regular mistakes from the still-youthful starters and injury issues bringing patently unready players onto the field.

I mean… yeah. Colson was Jonas Mouton and while Barrett came on later this was the worst spot on the D. One point.

Mike Sainristil holds the nickel corner job all year and is draftable as a DB.

One point. Two points. ONE MILLION POINTS.

Mason Graham is the best freshman DT since MGoBlog started tracking things.

One point. Two points. ONE MILLION POINTS.

Derrick Moore emerges midseason into a Josh Uche-like rush threat and everyone is hyped about him going in to next year.

Not really on the first half but yes on the second half due to some spring game demolition work. Half-point.

Ditto Will Johnson, although this may qualify as a layup.

This did qualify as a layup, one point.

Michigan backslides in SP+, but only slightly to 15th.

Michigan finished 9th. Half point?

THIS YEAR'S STUPID PREDICTIONS

  • Derrick Moore emerges into the clear starting strongside tackle and is on NFL lips entering 2024.
  • Mason Graham has five sacks and approaches a 90 PFF grade.
  • Ditto Kris Jenkins.
  • Colson improves noticeably but not improbably; he does not fully harness his physical ability but covering grass is much less prominent; he enters the draft early and goes on day 2.
  • Josh Wallace holds CB2 all year, though there's a significant amount of rotation.
  • Rod Moore has three crucial interceptions and is an All American. OSU stands by their decision to not recruit him because he was a three star.
  • Jyaire Hill flashes enough in ~150 snaps to suggest he's the next one.
  • Josiah Stewart is a near-clone of Uche, but an increment below him.
  • Michigan finishes 4th in SP+.

Comments

stephenrjking

September 1st, 2023 at 1:12 PM ^

4. Do you ever get the feeling this is all too good to be true and that you will wake up from this beautiful dream to find you're in Michigan Stadium, it's 2023, Brady Hoke is still the coach, and Michigan is losing to Rutgers 27-19 with four minutes left in the game?

So actually I have this pessimism thing. Not heavy "we're going to lose 5 games" pessimism, but just a hint of the context thing touched on in the receiver section: Michigan has made two straight playoffs, is ranked #2 in the country, has proven it can beat Ohio State, brings most everybody back:

It feels too good to be true.

And sometimes teams bring this kind of promise into a season and it *is* too good to be true. Michigan fans of certain ages can point to specific years where this has happened.

But then sometimes teams deliver on the promise they have, and it turns out that they are as good or better than the projections.

We've had a couple of years of that now, but after what came before, we're due for 10 or 20 years of that. 

I hope CB and LB are alright. I hope we figure out the pass rush thing. 

The schedule gives Michigan months to do so.

Maybe #4 SP isn't too much to ask.

Blue In NC

September 1st, 2023 at 1:28 PM ^

I share your somewhat cautious optimism.  And yet, this seems like such a veteran and seasoned team with great chemistry.  And no one will question this team's toughness or will.  We could get some bad luck that we mostly avoided last year (and special teams are more of a ?), but trying to find weaknesses seems like nitpicking.  Realistically, I can't imagine when we will have a more favorable outlook.  This is the year everyone has been anticipating, let's savor it!

It's a fun exercise to realize that one unit is so strong and yet it's difficult to decide whether the offense or defense is stronger.  I tend to favor the offense slightly given the OL/RB depth but it's a close call.

stephenrjking

September 1st, 2023 at 1:42 PM ^

Ok, so part of this is defense in context: This defense looks loaded in many ways, but LB was a bit of an issue last season, CB has a question, and there is a key part of the responsibilities of DE (pass rush) that aren't projected optimistically. Largely these are nothingburger issues, absolutely nothing like the RichRod era and frankly better than a lot of good Michigan defenses under Harbaugh, with no question that a small issue here or there will be nothing as dramatically bad as various holes in otherwise elitely talented Lloyd Carr defenses that had achilles heels. 

But in context, it really is all about beating OSU and then two elite teams in the playoff, one or both of which may be Georgia or Alabama. That's a huge level up. A doable one. But you don't want a CB that can be picked on or something.

And part of this is Mgoblog in context: I saw somewhere, I think on here, refer to the projections for the team this year with the note that of course it's a Michigan blog so of course there will be rose-colored glasses in the preview.

Thing is, it is not. Brian, and in recent years Seth, have proven to be exceptionally good at objective and granular analysis and projection. This is not just "hey we've got these guys back must be a national title." They spend hours and hours each season analyzing, in part to prepare for these previews. 

When stuff isn't good, they say so. I mentioned the rather sour projections for DT in 2020, which were honest. When CB was a dumpster fire in the RichRod era, Brian gave it a 1 and did everything but use the dumpster fire gif (unless he did use the gift and I forgot about it). When things *seem* a bit extra-enthusiastic it generally turns out not to be. Seth's absurdly high grades for the RBs early in the 2021 season raised eyebrows, even with Brian, but it quickly became clear that the grades were high because the RBs were in fact that good. 

So Brian isn't blowing smoke here. He thinks this defense is elite. Which means I really shouldn't worry too much about the issues he identified, but in the "beat Georgia/Bama" context I've mentioned, I still tend to do that. 

Blue In NC

September 1st, 2023 at 2:24 PM ^

Agree that this year is all about matching up with the elite teams (OSU, PSU, playoff).  There are questions on each level but also reasonable solutions to each.

LB still had issues last season but we have added depth and experience.  It's maybe not an elite unit but with Colson's talent, Barrett's experience/versality and now depth with talent, this may be as good as it gets outside of the Bush years.

CB we have one elite in Johnson, an elite NB in Mikey and then a huge question but, as Brian indicates, many potential solutions.  And it's paired with a strong safety tandem.  Need to find one or more "above average" players there.  It's certainly a question but also quite possible.

DE will be solid we know that.  The question is can at least one be elite?  And this is hoping but I am optimistic that at least one of Moore and McGregor up to being all conference with good enough pass rush (when added to a very strong DT set) that gets us there.  And both of those guys are elite talents so if they arrive, they will match up against the big boys.  My crazy hope, and I am not even sure if this is possible, is that Moore's weight loss allows he and McGregor to play with each other by the end of the year and really put two elite athletes out there.

YoOoBoMoLloRoHo

September 1st, 2023 at 6:26 PM ^

I balance the pessimism with a more singular thought:  Harbaugh finally has the running game, QB, defense and team culture that he planned from the start - and more talent than the early years.

It’s sometimes hard to recall how “controlled” UM football was in years 1 and 2 when the team was just learning JH’s system. If Rudock connected on a couple of deep throws vs Utah and the punt was cleanly executed vs MSU, UM would’ve walked into the OSU game with an undefeated squad. If Chesson catches the pass on the out route in 2016, UM would’ve walked into OSU undefeated. Almost largely the result of steady, effective, grinding football by those two squads.

Now JH has the team believing 100% in the system with talent and maturity across the board. He should be able to control almost everything in the game flow (albeit not on the sideline for 3 games). Random disaster could strike UM and the team could buckle under the high expectations, but the culture should prevent a loss from these factors until a team simply outperforms them.  PSU and OSU have the talent to beat this team if they are off a little. Regardless, that is the essence & excitement of college football.

LeCheezus

September 1st, 2023 at 1:33 PM ^

I've been a fan a long time, and I get where you are coming from.  However, the last several years (minus the 2020 "whatever that was") have erased the dread from the Rich Rod/Hoke years, and I don't even get the Carr era "what game are they going to blow this year because the staff refuses to acknowledge mobile QB's should be game planned for" feeling.  If we had Wisconsin, Illinois and Iowa from the west instead of Minnesota, Nebraska and Purdue... AND a non conference opponent with a solid pulse, I think some concern would be valid.  Frankly, the schedule is butt and Jim Harbaugh wins with cruelty. 

This team cruises to 8-0 starting November, when the real season starts.

dragonchild

September 1st, 2023 at 1:44 PM ^

We could lose a game or two. Not for lack of want or ability, but because football is stupid.

We need to remind ourselves that successful seasons require some luck — or at the very least, a lack of bad luck. Imagine how the 2021 Game would’ve gone if Hutchinson got injured, for example. Or last season if we didn’t have Moody when Harbaugh turtled against Illinois. And yes, we have lost some games due to crappy and even crooked zebras.

After many years of misfortune, we’ve been relatively fortunate. Yeah Corum got hurt but we were lucky Edwards was good enough to play, and that Barrett turned himself into a legit linebacker when we desperately needed one.

Bad years get people asking “what if” but good years should too, to better appreciate them. Our QB made it through the season! I hope that happens again. But even so, it’s entirely possible our championship hopes will be derailed by something insane, because football is stupid.

The Homie J

September 1st, 2023 at 2:31 PM ^

We need to remind ourselves that successful seasons require some luck — or at the very least, a lack of bad luck

This is very true, but I'd say that teams like Georgia/Bama/Ohio State usually don't fall victim until they play each other because having unreal depth somewhat nullifies football stupidity.

Just look at our "lack of bad luck" last year.  Corum & Mike Morris missed the most important games of the year, Donovan Edwards couldn't use his best skill all year, JJ was handcuffed, our "backup" QB (McNamara) exited during the OOC portion of the schedule, NHG being hurt decimated the LB depth to the point where we borrowed a RB, our #1 tight end went out so early most of us forgot about him, the #2 tight end was hurt (but played) during the most difficult portion of the schedule, our tune up game heading into Ohio State (Illinois) ended up being arguably the third best team we played last year, the TCU game (just.....all of it), Mike Hart went down with a scary health issue vs Indiana which almost derailed the team that day, Sparty pulled out another "better than they should be" performance against us, and on and on.

Bad luck/football stupidity is a given.  With enough talent, skill and foresight, you can prevent or recover from most if not all of it, as we did last year.  If any Michigan team can withstand the random nonsense of any given year, it's this team

BuckeyeChuck

September 1st, 2023 at 6:54 PM ^

We need to remind ourselves that successful seasons require some luck — or at the very least, a lack of bad luck

This is very true, but I'd say that teams like Georgia/Bama/Ohio State usually don't fall victim until they play each other because having unreal depth somewhat nullifies football stupidity.

There's still unluckiness (i.e. stoopid football). I think Tressel's best roster was the 2005 team that lost 2 games, better than the '02 & '06 teams that both finished the regular season undefeated.

I think Meyer's 2015 team was better than the 2014 championship team, but for one crazy, sloppy, wet day against MSU that prevented OSU from an opportunity to repeat.

There's always variance. Even for the programs you list.

pure_michigan_

September 1st, 2023 at 3:02 PM ^

Absolutely agree with this. Until 2021, we had a QB hurt (at least what feels like) every year of the Jim Harbaugh era by OSU. We've had two years of getting the starting QB to OSU, and surprise, we beat OSU. That's not a guarantee. Will Johnson could get hurt and suddenly our CB position goes from a 4 to a 2 and our national title hopes become far dimmer. Luck is a huge element here...but so it is for virtually every other team.

Outside of the Cardale Jones year, how many times has OSU gotten their starting QB to the UM game healthy? What feels like all of them. Every college team fan out there, even for OSU, Bama, and Georgia, grimaces at the thought of a bad injury at the wrong position. We have everything we need to win a title, but we're still going to need a healthy dose of luck, just like every other team with title hopes.

And with all of that, my prediction is still 13-1 with a national title win. We get a bit of luck.

kyle.aaronson

September 1st, 2023 at 1:14 PM ^

Isn't it reasonable to expect Mike Sainristl to get better this year, rather than just equal himself from last year? He wasn't a mental liability last year, but with an extra year of practice under his belt, I have a hard time seeing a guy who's played defense for just one year in college not improving.

stephenrjking

September 1st, 2023 at 1:31 PM ^

Sainristil's performance was remarkable, nobody expected that kind of utility from a first-year defensive position change.

Alas, because he was so good so early, there probably isn't a lot for him left to explore. He is who he is athletically, and if he already does everything as well as he is capable of schematically, there's not much you can add.

Brian (and others who know football) generally don't expect big leaps from upperclassmen who have mastered their positions mentally and are already at their physical peak. There's some growth, of course, but a lot of it has happened. Mike played like an upperclassman last season, which was shockingly good news, but also means there's little progress to make. He's already a great player.

Contrast with the projections for JJ, which involve him understanding more and thus being given the controls to make LOS changes for the offense. He made a big jump last season, but he still has room to grow. Edwards still has room to grow--progress in running lane choices, becoming more fully actualized as a receiver, etc. On the other hand, Zak Zinter is who he is. And who he is, like Sainristil, is great.

 

njvictor

September 1st, 2023 at 3:03 PM ^

Brian (and others who know football) generally don't expect big leaps from upperclassmen who have mastered their positions mentally

But how do we know he has "mastered his position mentally?" He's only been there for a year. Why isn't it reasonable to assume a proverbial freshman to sophomore leap for a senior who is entering his second season at a position?

Derek

September 1st, 2023 at 2:14 PM ^

Brian covered this in the Cornerback preview:

It's weird to assert this about a guy who flipped positions a year ago, but Sainristil seems at or near his ceiling? It's hard to imagine him improving on his run defense and somehow his coverage felt like he'd been playing it since his arrival on campus. PFF's grading is harsher than ours, I guess, and the guy was a wide receiver in 2021 so I guess I should assert that he's got upside left? [...] Sainristil should be All Big Ten and play like an All-American; he'll get knocked for being too small and go in the late rounds of the NFL draft, whereupon he will have a 50-year career with stops at all 32 teams.

PopeLando

September 1st, 2023 at 2:46 PM ^

My deepest fear is Harbaugh seeing exactly what you’re seeing, and saying to himself “oh good, that means we don’t need to score a lot of points to win games.”

Harbaugh leans on the defense pretty hard. I should be a LOT more optimistic, but I think Optimism kicks in around Week 5.

njvictor

September 1st, 2023 at 2:57 PM ^

I find it weird that McGregor was kinda separated from the rest of the DL in terms of breaking out. I don't quite understand the pessimism with him. He was starting to flash at the end of last year, put on another 6 pounds this offseason, and it feels like this is the year where he puts it all together. He's a former top 100 player who got injured his senior year and basically spent his whole redshirt recovering. This is McGregor's junior year

Dunder

September 1st, 2023 at 3:27 PM ^

Rooting hard for McGregor. To your point, I think Moore has the higher ceiling, so perhaps best case for the team is that McGregor's upward trend line continues and yet Moore still passes him. 

A big year for one or both of them would certainly mean a lot less pressure on that cornerback 2 question.  

Dunder

September 1st, 2023 at 3:07 PM ^

Thinking a last minute edit might have switched question 4 to: The safety injuries really are just minor dings and nothing to worry about long term, right?   - Ideally, the answer is: yes, this is correct. 

crg

September 1st, 2023 at 3:34 PM ^

And as Seth pointed out, NFL types are looking at the guy's raw athletic package and going AWOOOOGA with their eyes popping out and their tongue unrolling on the floor, sort of thing.

Tacopants

September 1st, 2023 at 3:48 PM ^

I for one am now wishing Jonas Mouton was in fact a Muton. While Mutons may not have sufficient lateral quickness I'm sure he would have made for a triple team destroying nose tackle.