[David Wilcomes]

Penn State 83, Michigan 61 Comment Count

Alex.Drain January 29th, 2023 at 2:15 PM

As a general rule in college basketball, it's never a good sign when reporters are tweeting about what the worst defensive performance in the KenPom era from your team is, with the implication that the game unfolding has a chance to statistically set the new record. That's what happened today for Michigan Men's Basketball in State College against Penn State, as a barrage of Nittany Lion three pointers had UMHoops' Dylan Burkhardt reminding us that Michigan's defensive results were currently worse than the previous record for the KenPom era, a 1.59 PPP against defeat at UCLA years ago. It was that sort of game. Despite being close for ~16 minutes, Penn State unleashed a nuclear arsenal of perimeter shooting to blow Michigan right out of the water over a ~10 minute stretch from the late first half to the early second. The lead stretched above 30 and it was never close again. 

Despite the disastrous final score, the game didn't start terribly for the Maize & Blue. They welcomed Jett Howard back to the lineup and he showed he wasn't feeling any worse for wear on the offensive end. Jett had 13 of Michigan's first 17 points on 5/5 shooting, helping Michigan keep pace with a hot PSU team, whose early offensive performance foreshadowed later results. Early on it was matchup nightmare Jalen Pickett, who did damage against Michigan the first time these two teams played, driving offense for the home squad. When Pickett converted on an and-one, he had 17 of PSU's 26 points, doing so on a sizzling 7/8 shooting. 

The score at that point was 26-19, a lead that would grow to eight (29-21) a few moments later when a Myles Dread shot clock heave went down from beyond the arc. Yet that wasn't the moment that the game spiraled. Joey Baker's jumper went down, Hunter Dickinson connected on a hook shot, and a Jett Howard jumper trimmed the lead back down. When Howard made another three, he was up to 18 points on the afternoon, and the score sat at 31-30 in favor of the Nittany Lions. There was 4:34 left in the first half and that's the moment when a seemingly competitive game turned into a potentially historic blowout in the history of head-to-head matchups between these two squads. 

[David Wilcomes]

What happened? To start, Penn State went through one of those "can't-miss" periods on offense. They held Michigan scoreless on offense for a couple minutes and during that period, they hit a three pointer on five straight possessions. It was simple: get a stop, go up the court, get a decent look from three, swish. Repeat 5x. Before you could blink, it was a 15-0 PSU run and the crowd inside the Bryce Jordan Center was raucous. Hunter Dickinson turned it over, and it led to an and-one on the fast-break for PSU's Andrew Funk. Kobe Bufkin's jumper just before the expiration of the first half mercifully ended an 18-0 Penn State run over ~four minutes of game time, but the damage was long since done. The score sat 49-32 PSU at the half. 

At halftime, Penn State was scoring at a scalding 1.68 PPP clip, which is what conjured discussions about the all-time worst Michigan defensive efforts. They shot 19/31 from the floor (61.3%) and 9/17 from three (52.9%), while Pickett was their leading scorer with 17 (Funk had 14). They had just two turnovers and with four OREBs, that represented a 42% OREB percentage. There is no way to describe this other than disaster for the Wolverines. Michigan was adequate on offense, 45% from the field and 31% from three, but it was really a one-man show: Jett's 18 towered over everyone else (Bufkin was second with 6). Not good enough to keep pace with what was going on at the other end. 

Michigan was not totally out of it at halftime, though it was going to take a hell of an effort in the second half to make it truly competitive. However, very quickly into the second half it became clear that said hell of an effort was not going to materialize and the Wolverines were indeed totally out of it. In an ominous sign, PSU swished their first three point attempt of the half, followed by a Michigan miss. Fast forward a couple minutes and the Nittany Lions nailed another triple and Juwan Howard called a timeout, less than three minutes into the second half. The margin was now 57-34 and the timeout did little to stop the bleeding. PSU stripped Michigan of the ball out of the timeout and Seth Lundy drilled a three. 60-34. 

[David Wilcomes]

Terrance Williams finally got Michigan a score but back came Penn State. Lundy made a layup and later would hit a pair of free throws to push the lead all the way up to 28. Michigan's defense started to hang in there better than they had previously, but the offense had gone ice cold. Jett Howard was starting to cool off and the same trends from the first half were there: if Jett wasn't scoring, not much was going on for the Michigan offense. They did nothing meaningful to whittle away the lead over the next 4 or 5 minutes and a quick spurt from Jalen Pickett around the halfway mark of the second half shoved the lead to an astronomical 32 points, 73-41. 

This was around the point when your author started writing, because the outcome was now decided. The last ten minutes were merely performative efforts, playing out the remaining time so the game would end and Michigan could start licking their wounds on the plane ride home. As is typically the case in KenPom Time, the team in a massive hole trims the margin down and Michigan did that, albeit very slowly. Isaiah Barnes, Will Tschetter, and Cooper Smith(!) got minutes in the closing stretch of the game and when the final horn sounded, Penn State had an 83-61 victory. 

[David Wilcomes]

Michigan ended up avoiding setting the record for the school's worst PPP defensive effort (PSU ended at "only" 1.34), but they did set the record for the largest margin of defeat against Penn State, surpassing an 18 point loss in 1999. It was a game to forget in every sense of the phrase, with few bright spots besides Jett Howard's first half. The next highest scorer was Bufkin with 8. The team shot 42.4% from the floor, under 30% from three, went 5/8 at the line, turned it over eight times, and every starter clocked in with a +/- of at least -21. Oof. 

PSU's numbers are not as terrifying because of the cold spell to end the game, missing their last nine threes in a reversion to the mean, yet they still shot 43.3% from three on 30 attempts. Pickett led the way with a dazzling 25 points, 8 boards, and 8 assists performance, followed by Lundy with 22 and Andrew Funk with 19, both of whom were 4/9 from beyond the arc. A burn the tape sort of game for Juwan Howard's crew. 

Michigan is now 5-5 in conference play halfway through the B1G slate, having lost two in a row. They're also now 11-10 on the season. They kick off February with a game against Northwestern on Thursday in Evanston. Michigan defeated the Wildcats in their first meeting, but going on the road this time will not be nearly as easy. That game is scheduled for 7:00 PM EST and will be broadcast on ESPN2. 

[Click the JUMP for the box score]

Comments

Stringer Bell

January 29th, 2023 at 2:30 PM ^

Juwan is Brady Hoke.  Just get rid of him now, and for the love of god make sure that the next hire doesn’t have “played for Michigan” as their only qualification.

ERdocLSA2004

January 29th, 2023 at 4:44 PM ^

Brady wasn’t an elite recruiter but he did get the most out of the guys he had.  Juwan had decent nba coaching experience and a lot of nba players spoke highly of him.  I’m not sure if he has the capability to lead Michigan to a championship but let’s not forget minimum sweet 16’s every year he has been here which is basically unheard of.  Maybe he peaked and now it’s going downhill or maybe this is just a crappy year we need to forget about.  Either way, Juwan is NOT going to get fired(save another altercation).

bronxblue

January 29th, 2023 at 6:11 PM ^

My general rule around here is that when people start comparing anyone not named Brady Hoke to Brady Hoke I generally tune them out.

If Howard is an Amaker type then so be it (I don't believe that's the case, mind you).  But this fanbase already has a penchant for wild swings of emotions around guys when they win or lose (I went back to some of the old fire Harbaugh threads and a LOT of people talking shit about Howard now were the same who wanted Harbaugh gone post 2020) and I think at this point people calling for Howard to be fired are just emotional and lashing out.

He gets at least a one year mulligan.  The team has to get better next year and there should be staff changes.  

bronxblue

January 29th, 2023 at 7:11 PM ^

So over 4 years change two of them to help your argument?  Sure, why not.  

Of the many difference between the two Hoke won almost exclusively with RR's recruits; there are no major contributors from Home on that 2011 team.  But comparison, Howard's best team featured Dickinson, Franz, Brown and Smith as guys he brought in.  If you want to argue about Wagner go for it but that's still half of the major contributors Howard brought in.  Hoke's teams got progressively worse not only because he wasn't that good of a coach but because the guys he brought in to replace that talent that was already there were consistently worse.  I'm way more confident in Bufkin and Dug getting better next year, for example, than I ever was about Kyle Kalis or Shane Morris.  And 2011 was one of the luckiest teams I remember at UM; they had a +14 fumble margin fergodsake.  Howard's team in 2020 was decidedly not that; they were top 10 in offense and defense were about national average in luck (176).  They were just a good team.

And last year's team was about as good as that 2019 team when you consider the difference in overall experience (2019 was 192 in experience; last year they were 296th).  

Howard may not work out; that's certainly possible.  But having one of the least experienced teams in the country exposes you to seasons like this, and it was no starker evidence in this game that PSU is literally the most experienced team in the country and UM is 305th.

So yeah, Howard isn't like Hoke except that people don't like UM losing and Hoke is the only coach he got worse during his tenure unless you want to talk about Harbaugh pre 2021 except that would blow up the narrative because of what happened afterwards.

Stringer Bell

January 29th, 2023 at 7:29 PM ^

I mean, if you wanna argue the general trajectory isn’t the same then go ahead.  You’d be wrong.  Juwans one good season came in the weird ass COVID year when fans weren’t allowed in the stands.  So maybe the better comparison is Tom Allen, lucky us.

 

I mean, how can you possibly win with a junior center, 2 freshmen and a sophomore in the starting lineup?  You can’t.  Oh wait, Purdue is the #1 team in the country with exactly that.  What’s the difference?  Painter is a great coach, Juwan is a subpar one.  Experience is not an excuse, sorry.

ERdocLSA2004

January 29th, 2023 at 6:06 PM ^

Totally agree but none of what you are saying actually proves anything.  The sample size is way too small.  This will be the first in 4 seasons that he hasn’t taken a team at least to the sweet 16.  Does that mean he’s a great coach?  Maybe not, but it doesn’t mean that he’s not a good coach.  Time will tell but he’s not going anywhere unless he decides to leave.

bronxblue

January 29th, 2023 at 6:13 PM ^

And went 19-12 with them (and technically Franz hadn't signed and there was a chance he'd have stayed in Germany) and would have made the tournament.  But that team was absolutely not going to win a national title.  Hell, that's a reason Beilein left; he didn't like seeing guys like Poole and Iggy leave and he hadn't recruited well enough to replace them.

blueboy

January 30th, 2023 at 6:02 PM ^

But that team was absolutely not going to win a national title.

 

I wouldn’t rule it out. If you recall, that team was rolling early in the year and started stumbling only when Livers got hurt. Then when he came back they looked right back on track until the world shut down. 5-5 without livers, 14-7 with him. Definitely think they had a puncher’s chance with everybody healthy. 

ShoelacesFlapp…

January 29th, 2023 at 2:30 PM ^

It is extremely discouraging to look at this team and see this is probably the most talent we’ll have for a while. Obviously teams have bounce back years all the time in college basketball, but to do that you need player development, which we’ve had none of the last couple years. 

rice4114

January 29th, 2023 at 5:21 PM ^

I dont think this is the case. Just by law of averages (an average U of M roster is better than this) we will be more talented going forward. T will Bufkin and Barnes are not what we thought they would be. 

-Bufkin should be a 6th man

-T will should be deep bench (last man in)

-Tschetter Jace and Barnes should be playing blow out minutes

-Hunter needs a talented back court to play with and a stretch 4 that can shoot

How did we get here? Llewellyns injury, Frankie Collins changing schools for the 5th time in 5 years, Shannon not making it in as UM is in a constant state of own goaling themselves in basketball, and two players leaving school to play 4 minutes a game in the G-"why did I leave" league.

Frankie Collins, Llewellyn, Shannon, Diabate, Houston couldve all been on our roster this season. This isnt the season to judge Howard as he got some shit luck. Next seasons roster though will be all you need to know. If he fixes it it'll be alright.

 

KBLOW

January 29th, 2023 at 2:31 PM ^

Dickinson looked like he had never seen a double team in his life. Just horrible, horrible play from him. At this point I wish he never came back.

SDCran

January 29th, 2023 at 3:36 PM ^

Just a horrible take on his game.   He had 3 assists and would have had 5-6 more if people had hit wide open shots. His offense was exactly what is asked of him.   Take what is there.   He missed a shot or two, but that’s the only reasonable criticism of his offense today.   
the problem was, as in many games this year, was his defensive limitations were responsible for a lot of open shots.  

outsidethebox

January 30th, 2023 at 8:18 AM ^

The way assists are handed out like candy these days makes it, for the most part, a meaningless stat. 

Regarding Hunter: Hunter dominates this team in every way-physically, mentally and emotionally. This is Hunter's team and this genie is fully out of the bottle and there is little that can be done about it. And the problem is that the sum total in this regard weighs out to a negative. 

Hunter's position as a role player as a freshman is where he should have remained. Hunter does not have "lead-role" talent-not on any front. Here there is plenty of blame to be placed at the feet of this coaching staff. Because now Hunter, and too many others, believes he is good enough to have a team revolve around him-he does not nor ever will have such talent. The staff gambled and lost on this one and the consequences result in exactly what we are seeing. 

All appearances are that the coaching staff has decided to simply let this matter run its course and let the chips fall where they may. Because, as things stand, there is little that can be done to address the elephant in this room. Wow, I can only imagine the individual and team discussions that would be required to change this scene. 

ST3

January 29th, 2023 at 2:45 PM ^

Hunter was outplayed by Michael Henn, a guy who hadn’t scored in big 10 play this season before today. We’ll see at Northwestern if HD has any pride, or if he’s just playing out the string.

Umhockeyfan1701

January 29th, 2023 at 2:48 PM ^

I always love when everyone says burn this tape. If this team tried to burn these types of tape, they’d have a bonfire that would make a Sparty Couch Fire pale by comparison.

shoes

January 29th, 2023 at 4:36 PM ^

Based upon many, many years of watching college basketball, if your best accomplishment is close losses (without some big wins to go with them), then you are kidding yourself if you think the team isn't that far off. Mediocre teams playing good teams close isn't unusual.

HollywoodHokeHogan

January 29th, 2023 at 2:56 PM ^

Yeah, remember that ASU game that some folks were like, “don’t worry, it’s just an outlier”?  Not so much.  Teams will not always shoot lights out on a given night,  but they will shoot pretty well when you play horrible defense.  It’s not bad luck, it’s a bad team and it has been for a while. 

mwolverine1

January 30th, 2023 at 10:21 AM ^

The ASU game was definitely worse. But per Torvik, the worst game in recent memory (the Beilein/Howard era) is the Maverick Morgan "white collar" game at Illinois in 2017. Illinois scored 1.41 points per possession and shot 64% from the field. We can only hope this performance provides half the inspiration that game did.

True Blue 9

January 29th, 2023 at 2:59 PM ^

Today was the first time since.....the late Amaker years, that I said to myself 'this team quit'. That in itself is inexcuseable and falls on Coach Howard & his staff. 

The game against Northwestern on Thursday is going to be very telling. If we get another effort like today, Coach Howard has flatout lost this team. 

Team 101

January 29th, 2023 at 3:09 PM ^

I have reset my goals for the season.  They are as follows:

1.  Beat Staee at Crisler

2.  Beat Ohio at Crisler

3.  Creatively taunt and boo Gard, Krabbenhoft and Wisconsin when they come to Crisler.

It would be nice to beat some other teams and avoid playing on Wednesday at the B1G tournament but whatever ...

Team 101

January 29th, 2023 at 3:38 PM ^

The team needs a player to step up and assume a leadership role on this team.  A Zack Novak or Derrick Walton, Jr.

I don't know who that would be on this squad.

SDCran

January 29th, 2023 at 3:45 PM ^

So can we talk about officiating, especially since it was a blowout, so no one can talk about  blaming the game on the officials (which I clearly am not)?

 

but wow, that was terrible.   Very few fouls called is ok, maybe good.   But when half of the ones that WERE called had 0 contact between the players.   There were ball fakes with the player taking 4 steps before the first dribble.   And repeated handoff screens that turned into, not just moving, but walking  screens.    TWill knocking the ball OOB and UM still getting it.   I know I tend to watch officials and rewind and rewatch plays too much, but today’s may have been the worst officiated game of the season.  Woof.   

DennisFranklinDaMan

January 29th, 2023 at 3:46 PM ^

I just don't understand it. I like Juwan, he's done an absolutely reasonable job at recruiting (yes, weirdness at point guard, but otherwise), and he has assistant coaches who are supposed to be good at what they do

We're not going to fire a coach after one disappointing season -- even if it seems to continue a downward year-on-year trend -- and nor should we. Juwan's not going anywhere, and the demands for his head on here are tiring (and pointless). Honestly, even if we lose every game for the rest of the year, Juwan is coming back for at least one year.

But ... this has, at the very least, to be a come-to-Jesus moment for the coaching staff, as 2020 was for Harbaugh. Time to reflect on what's happening and make whatever major changes are necessary for next year, in terms perhaps of hiring better assistants, improving their motivational and training skills, and ... whatever.

I'm just not ready to give up on Juwan, and I think we should focus more on supporting him and the program and less on launching attacks from our easy chairs. Lots of programs have ups and downs, and if we can pull out of this spin, wonderful. But ... this is certainly a bewildering year, given the athletic talent on this team, and even without a true point guard this shouldn't be happening.

swc_92

January 29th, 2023 at 4:07 PM ^

This game went almost exactly as I predicted/feared in the preview. PSU got hot from 3 early and UM's lack of physicality and overall competence on defense allowed them to get into an offensive rhythm that was ultimately insurmountable. No fluidity/plan on offense aside from let Jett shoot a tough shot and hope he makes it (which remarkably worked for ~15 minutes) was unsurprisingly ineffective over 40 minutes. What was most concerning/disappointing for me was the fact that the team threw in the towel & quit early in 2H. That speaks to a very mentally weak squad and is not what you'd expect from a program who's mantra is "for competitors only".