[David Wilcomes]

Penn State 83, Michigan 61 Comment Count

Alex.Drain January 29th, 2023 at 2:15 PM

As a general rule in college basketball, it's never a good sign when reporters are tweeting about what the worst defensive performance in the KenPom era from your team is, with the implication that the game unfolding has a chance to statistically set the new record. That's what happened today for Michigan Men's Basketball in State College against Penn State, as a barrage of Nittany Lion three pointers had UMHoops' Dylan Burkhardt reminding us that Michigan's defensive results were currently worse than the previous record for the KenPom era, a 1.59 PPP against defeat at UCLA years ago. It was that sort of game. Despite being close for ~16 minutes, Penn State unleashed a nuclear arsenal of perimeter shooting to blow Michigan right out of the water over a ~10 minute stretch from the late first half to the early second. The lead stretched above 30 and it was never close again. 

Despite the disastrous final score, the game didn't start terribly for the Maize & Blue. They welcomed Jett Howard back to the lineup and he showed he wasn't feeling any worse for wear on the offensive end. Jett had 13 of Michigan's first 17 points on 5/5 shooting, helping Michigan keep pace with a hot PSU team, whose early offensive performance foreshadowed later results. Early on it was matchup nightmare Jalen Pickett, who did damage against Michigan the first time these two teams played, driving offense for the home squad. When Pickett converted on an and-one, he had 17 of PSU's 26 points, doing so on a sizzling 7/8 shooting. 

The score at that point was 26-19, a lead that would grow to eight (29-21) a few moments later when a Myles Dread shot clock heave went down from beyond the arc. Yet that wasn't the moment that the game spiraled. Joey Baker's jumper went down, Hunter Dickinson connected on a hook shot, and a Jett Howard jumper trimmed the lead back down. When Howard made another three, he was up to 18 points on the afternoon, and the score sat at 31-30 in favor of the Nittany Lions. There was 4:34 left in the first half and that's the moment when a seemingly competitive game turned into a potentially historic blowout in the history of head-to-head matchups between these two squads. 

[David Wilcomes]

What happened? To start, Penn State went through one of those "can't-miss" periods on offense. They held Michigan scoreless on offense for a couple minutes and during that period, they hit a three pointer on five straight possessions. It was simple: get a stop, go up the court, get a decent look from three, swish. Repeat 5x. Before you could blink, it was a 15-0 PSU run and the crowd inside the Bryce Jordan Center was raucous. Hunter Dickinson turned it over, and it led to an and-one on the fast-break for PSU's Andrew Funk. Kobe Bufkin's jumper just before the expiration of the first half mercifully ended an 18-0 Penn State run over ~four minutes of game time, but the damage was long since done. The score sat 49-32 PSU at the half. 

At halftime, Penn State was scoring at a scalding 1.68 PPP clip, which is what conjured discussions about the all-time worst Michigan defensive efforts. They shot 19/31 from the floor (61.3%) and 9/17 from three (52.9%), while Pickett was their leading scorer with 17 (Funk had 14). They had just two turnovers and with four OREBs, that represented a 42% OREB percentage. There is no way to describe this other than disaster for the Wolverines. Michigan was adequate on offense, 45% from the field and 31% from three, but it was really a one-man show: Jett's 18 towered over everyone else (Bufkin was second with 6). Not good enough to keep pace with what was going on at the other end. 

Michigan was not totally out of it at halftime, though it was going to take a hell of an effort in the second half to make it truly competitive. However, very quickly into the second half it became clear that said hell of an effort was not going to materialize and the Wolverines were indeed totally out of it. In an ominous sign, PSU swished their first three point attempt of the half, followed by a Michigan miss. Fast forward a couple minutes and the Nittany Lions nailed another triple and Juwan Howard called a timeout, less than three minutes into the second half. The margin was now 57-34 and the timeout did little to stop the bleeding. PSU stripped Michigan of the ball out of the timeout and Seth Lundy drilled a three. 60-34. 

[David Wilcomes]

Terrance Williams finally got Michigan a score but back came Penn State. Lundy made a layup and later would hit a pair of free throws to push the lead all the way up to 28. Michigan's defense started to hang in there better than they had previously, but the offense had gone ice cold. Jett Howard was starting to cool off and the same trends from the first half were there: if Jett wasn't scoring, not much was going on for the Michigan offense. They did nothing meaningful to whittle away the lead over the next 4 or 5 minutes and a quick spurt from Jalen Pickett around the halfway mark of the second half shoved the lead to an astronomical 32 points, 73-41. 

This was around the point when your author started writing, because the outcome was now decided. The last ten minutes were merely performative efforts, playing out the remaining time so the game would end and Michigan could start licking their wounds on the plane ride home. As is typically the case in KenPom Time, the team in a massive hole trims the margin down and Michigan did that, albeit very slowly. Isaiah Barnes, Will Tschetter, and Cooper Smith(!) got minutes in the closing stretch of the game and when the final horn sounded, Penn State had an 83-61 victory. 

[David Wilcomes]

Michigan ended up avoiding setting the record for the school's worst PPP defensive effort (PSU ended at "only" 1.34), but they did set the record for the largest margin of defeat against Penn State, surpassing an 18 point loss in 1999. It was a game to forget in every sense of the phrase, with few bright spots besides Jett Howard's first half. The next highest scorer was Bufkin with 8. The team shot 42.4% from the floor, under 30% from three, went 5/8 at the line, turned it over eight times, and every starter clocked in with a +/- of at least -21. Oof. 

PSU's numbers are not as terrifying because of the cold spell to end the game, missing their last nine threes in a reversion to the mean, yet they still shot 43.3% from three on 30 attempts. Pickett led the way with a dazzling 25 points, 8 boards, and 8 assists performance, followed by Lundy with 22 and Andrew Funk with 19, both of whom were 4/9 from beyond the arc. A burn the tape sort of game for Juwan Howard's crew. 

Michigan is now 5-5 in conference play halfway through the B1G slate, having lost two in a row. They're also now 11-10 on the season. They kick off February with a game against Northwestern on Thursday in Evanston. Michigan defeated the Wildcats in their first meeting, but going on the road this time will not be nearly as easy. That game is scheduled for 7:00 PM EST and will be broadcast on ESPN2. 

[Click the JUMP for the box score]

Comments

DaftPunk

January 29th, 2023 at 4:52 PM ^

I watched the game sitting on my bike on the trainer for a two hour zone 2 endurance ride, so torture all around.  The only pleasure I got was eating a piece of candy every half hour.

My favorite player on the team is Dug.  His heart and hustle were evident on the baseline strip on the big man on PSU's second chance possession. He's got a long way to go, but he's not even supposed to be where he is now.  His future will reveal the truth to the story that Juwan can't develop guards.

Everyone else on the team is less than they should be except maybe Jace who always provides energy.  And Tschetter didn't get in until 4+ minutes left? He brings effort if not results, and nothing else was working so that seems inexplicable.

As for the fire Juwan crowd, does Ward Manuel seem to be a hands on manager?  Results (or fisticuffs) notwithstanding, I think the job is his for as long as he wants it.

Blue boy johnson

January 29th, 2023 at 5:11 PM ^

Coach Howard seem to be a good X’s and O’s  guy on the offensive end. He leaves a lot to be desired as head of the basketball program. 

My biggest issue with Coach Howard is his unprofessional manner he has demonstrated, like few other coaches ever. The Wisconsin fiasco and the Maryland debacle, are the two main examples. I’ll be glad when this ignoble era is over. 

My other main issue with Coach Howard: He doesn’t seem to know how to put together a roster. He did fine with the remnants of Coach Beilein’s players, but has really struggled to field a good team, totally oh his construction. I don’t think anybody is fielding a NCAA tournament team out of this roster. 

My hope is Coach Howard leaves Michigan when his sons do, maybe as soon as next season. He  seems better fit for the NBA

MGlobules

January 29th, 2023 at 5:57 PM ^

I've been a staunch defender of Juwan, the constraints and developments that made this year's team a poor one. But--this said--I have no idea why anyone is clinging to the idea that it's going to play in the postseason. That slipped from the team's grasp over the last several games. 

The team will likely be better next season, but we're just halfway through Big Ten play. I love Coach Howard, but negativity, bad luck, dissension have sunk more than one good coach. In a way, the biggest challenge comes now--helping these kids keep their head up, measurable if incremental improvement.  

TBlue

January 30th, 2023 at 7:46 AM ^

Sure PSU hit 3s from all over but most were wide open.  I think my biggest gripe this season is a complete lack of coaching on the D side.  Teams with lesser talent can win games with better D.  It doesn’t appear that Juwan or any current assistants are capable of getting these guys to play good D and rebound.  At minimum there does need to be a house cleaning of assistant coaches.  Bring back Yaklich!

blueboy

January 30th, 2023 at 6:17 PM ^

This season sucks. No doubt about that. But I’m old enough to remember when people were calling for Beilein to get fired after the 2015/2016 seasons. 
 

Calling for him to get fired at this point is absurd. He’s proven to be an elite recruiter and claiming he doesn’t know how to coach is such a lazy, bad take. It should be fairly obvious to anyone who knows basketball that Michigan runs some pretty sophisticated offensive sets by ncaa standards. There’s a lot of well-designed nba style stuff in the playbook that Michigan’s more experienced teams did a really good job of running.

Now the last couple of years, they’ve struggled to execute on both ends of the floor, largely due to relying on inexperienced freshmen/sophomores. I think there’s a good argument that if you’re going to recruit tons of 1-and-done types you have to simplify the playbook to make that type of roster work. In other words, what kentucky does. But of course that would only add fuel to the “Juwan can’t coach” fire if he went full calipari and just rolled out the ball and let guys do what they want.  
 

Or maybe the answer is that you need to recruit more transfers and program guys to balance out the youth, but then you risk losing guys to the transfer portal, which Juwan has already got flak for with Collins and others. 
 

It also probably isn’t entirely the coach’s fault when your all-American caliber center plays like a shell of his former self who’s content to cash his NIL checks and go home. Also doesn’t help when your starting PG tears his acl. 
 

Anyways there are a lot of reasons why we’re here but just as many potential ways to address the issues over the off-season. Juwan’s definitely shown enough to earn the right to try and clean up this mess.