About Last Week

This happened. [Barron]

The Road Ahead

Minnesota (3-2, 1-1 B1G)

Last week: Beat Louisiana, 35-24

Recap: They got back in the win column, but it wasn’t pretty. Minnesota trailed 17-14 at halftime, and didn’t get their lead out to multiple scores until the fourth quarter. They were outgained by 1.4 yards per play by the Ragin’ Cajuns.

The offense looks more like what we generally expected entering the season; after running the ball on 36% of plays in the opener, they’ve run the ball on 70% of plays in the intervening 4 weeks, including 78% this week. But it’s the defense that is the real cause for concern; in the last two weeks, they’ve allowed 6.2 yards per play to Northwestern and 6.7 yards per play to Louisiana.

This team is as frightening as (Cinema Edition): The shark from Jaws. Yes, it’s formidable, but its options to go after you are SUPER limited. If it tries to attack through the air, it’s mostly just gonna flop around. Fear Level = 5

Michigan should worry about: Minnesota is, statistically and in terms of eye test, the best team Michigan has faced thus far.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Freshman Darius Taylor, to whom I attribute 73% of Minnesota’s run game improvement, missed last week’s game with a leg injury. I haven’t seen anything about his return, but even if he does, it’s likely that he won’t be 100% a week after having to sit out.

When they play Michigan: For some reason, the last three games between Michigan and Minnesota have all been night games as well:

• The one game in 2020 where Michigan looked like a competent football team
• The one game in 2017 where Michigan looked like a competent football team
• The 2015 goal line stand game

The Brown Jug games in 1991, 1996, 2002, 2003 (the Buffalo Stampede game) and 2006 were also night games, all of which Michigan won.

Next game: vs. Michigan, 7:30 p.m., NBC (Minnesota +19)

[AFTER THE JUMP: Everyone is on a bye next week]

Indiana (2-3, 0-2 B1G)

Indiana

Last week: Lost at Maryland, 44-17

Recap: This wasn’t even as competitive as the score would suggest. Indiana was down 21-3 in the first quarter, and the score was 37-3 before Indiana found the end zone for the first time. Tayven Jackson threw for 3.9 yards per attempt despite completing nearly 60% of his passes. Because Walt Bell. And in related news, Indiana fired Walt Bell after the game.

This team is as frightening as: Watching a movie with your parents when a prolonged sex scene comes on. It’s uncomfortable for everyone involved, and the scene itself doesn’t convey any real plot information. Like, you could just TELL everyone what happened, and it wouldn’t change anything.

Sexy times

Fear Level = 3

Michigan should worry about: I don’t know who will be calling plays for Indiana now that Bell has been Jazz’d out of the building. But I don’t think it’s hyperbole to say that whoever it is CANNOT be less effective at scheming up a passing game that has a prayer against decent defenses.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Indiana still can’t block anyone. As much as the passing game was Bell’s fault, Indiana is last in the Big Ten and #121 in the country in yards per carry against FBS teams at under 2.6 YPC.

When they play Michigan: People will say, “their bye came at the right time,” but I’m not sure that’s correct. The bye probably needed to come earlier. Like Week 1. And then Week 2. Just an entire season of that game of, “oh, we’d LOVE to come over for dinner this Saturday, but we’ve got plans. And a doctor’s appointment. And the kids have colds. But we’ll definitely get together soon,” followed by a “man, how is it Thanksgiving ALREADY? We were really hoping to play some football this fall. Ah, well. We’ll have to get together soon.”

But absent that, Indiana now gets a week off to… hell I don’t know. To do something. Anything.

Next game: Bye
 

Michigan State (2-3, 0-2 B1G)

Last week: Lost at Iowa, 26-16

Recap: The theme of the evening was “Midwest Nice.” Michigan State was handed a gift by the Kinnick Gods. Multiple gifts, actually. After Iowa put together a competent opening drive, Cade McNamara tore up his knee on the second drive, meaning that 90% of this game was in the hands of Deacon Hill, a redshirt sophomore with 8 career pass attempts entering the day. They were handed a literal gift of seven points on a scoop-and-score in the second half. And they were gifted the presence of Brian Horatio Umberto Ferentz IV.

But like any good guest, Michigan State came bearing gifts of their own. Specifically, they handed Iowa four turnovers (three picks and a fumble), a turnover on downs, a 15-yard punt, and one of the easier punt return opportunities you will ever see for one of the best punt returners in the country, Cooper DeJean. Most importantly, when we (the viewers) seemed destined to be burdened with overtime, Michigan State made sure everyone could go home at a reasonable hour by stacking four of those mistakes into their final four drives.

This… this is a John L. Smith team. How else do you describe a team that keeps outplaying their opponents on a down-to-down basis but keeps losing because of mind-melting mistakes. Some of them are coaching mistakes, some of them are player mistakes, and some of them are the bill from the Universe coming due.

This team is as frightening as: The evil organization in a Bond movie.

Goldfinger. Blofeld. Le Chiffre. The Sitch.

They’ve clearly got some resources and some skilled operators, but they are fatally hamstrung by catastrophic leadership. Plans are painfully telegraphed to the point where you almost wonder if they WANT to succeed. One guy uses his hat as a weapon. Fear Level = 6.5

Michigan should worry about: Michigan State is #2 in the country in preventing opponent 3rd down conversions. Yes, you read that right. Michigan State University (the East Lansing one), who was #115 in the country last season at nearly 44%, is allowing opponents to convert only 23% of their 3rd down opportunities. That’s not even that heavily influenced by their cupcake games; they’re under 29% against Power 5 teams.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Noah Kim has failed to crack 6 YPA in each of his last three games. Against FBS teams, Kim has the worst passer rating in the conference at just under 100. Since 2016, only two qualifying Big Ten QBs have finished with a passer rating under 100 against FBS teams: Art Sitkowski for Rutgers in 2018 and Aidan Smith for Northwestern in 2019. Those two teams finished a combined 4-20.

When they play Michigan: It’s tricky, but if you squint, you can see a really competitive game in there somewhere.

Next game: Bye
 

Purdue (2-3, 1-1 B1G)

Last week: Beat Illinois, 44-19

Recap: As usual, I don’t know what to make of Purdue. So let’s just list some stuff.

The game was almost dead even in yardage and yards per play. Illinois was a little better on the ground, Purdue was a little better through the air. Both teams had one super-costly turnover; Purdue ran a fumble back for a touchdown, but they also fumbled in the red zone. The big difference in the game was third downs. Purdue converted 8 of 13, but Illinois only converted 2 of 13. Hudson Card bounced back from a subpar Wisconsin game to complete 69% of his passes for 8.3 YPA and 2 TDs.

This team is as frightening as: Random musical number in the middle of a movie for no particular reason. Similar to the “watching a sex scene with the ‘rents” thing, but at least it’s fun and way less scarring. Fear Level = 6

drum

Michigan should worry about: Weirdly, Purdue has 3 of the top 6 receivers in the Big Ten in terms of total catches: Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen (24), Max Klare (22), and Deion Burks (20). Plus TJ Sheffield has 18.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: SP+ has Purdue (#68) nestled conveniently between Rutgers (#61) and Nebraska (#69 (nice)).

When they play Michigan: Probably the last stress-free Saturday before the second week in December. And by then you’re into Christmas Stress already.

Next game: @ Iowa, 3:30 p.m., Peacock (Purdue +2)
 

 

Penn State (5-0, 3-0 B1G)

Last week: Won at Northwestern, 41-13

Recap: “Penn State is Iowa” is starting to feel like an actual thing.

On the defensive side of the ball, Penn State is absolutely kicking ass. They have the #4 overall SP+ defense. They lead the nation in defensive efficiency at 3.8 yards per play. They’re allowing 2.6 yards per carry and 5.0 yards per pass attempt (with a nation-best passer rating allowed of 86.5). They’re #3 in the nation with 4.0 sacks per game. They are only allowing 9.6 points per game. They’re only allowing 11.6 first downs per game, #2 in the country (behind only Michigan). They lead the nation with a turnover margin of +2.2 per game.

But they are also Iowa on offense. They have the #30 overall SP+ offense. They are #10 in the Big Ten in offensive yards per play, just behind Rutgers and MSU. In three conference games, they have yet to crack 5 yards per play. Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton have a large enough sample size (143 combined carries) that their 4.1 YPC average⁠—more than 1.8 YPC short of last year’s mark⁠—is starting to look real. In three conference games, Drew Allar is averaging 5.5 YPA, ahead of only Noah Kim and Tayven Jackson among qualified QBs.

We said last week that the only outcome against Northwestern that wouldn’t raise alarm bells was Hank Scorpio with the flamethrower. The Northwestern defense that gave up 8.1 YPP to Duke and 6.5 YPP to Minnesota held Penn State to 4.8 YPP. Hell, UTEP put up more yards per play than Penn State did. Duke (6.7 YPC) and Minnesota (5.8 YPC) clobbered Minnesota on the ground, but Penn State only managed 3.4 YPC. And this wasn’t a situation where Penn State packed it in after getting out to a big lead; this game was tied at the half 10-10, and Penn State only blew it open in the 3rd quarter after the Nittany Lion defense gifted them back-to-back possessions at the Northwestern 31. In fact, of their 31 second-half points, 24 came off of drives that started at the Northwestern 40 or better.

This team is as frightening as: Barbenheimer.

Half of it is a fast, upbeat, energetic, and surprisingly complex/layered. The other half is slow, somewhat ponderous, and led by a number of big names spending three hours promising that something explosive will happen. Fear Level = 8.5

Michigan should worry about: According to PFF, Penn State had 45 pressures against Northwestern. I don’t care HOW bad Northwestern is, that’s an overwhelming amount of pass rush.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: I don’t think this will fly against Michigan:

 

Lowest Average Depth of Throw - P5 QBs:

1. Drew Allar - Penn State (6.3 yards)
2. Bo Nix - Oregon (6.4)
3. Graham Mertz - Florida (6.6)
4. Noah Fifita - Arizona (6.7)
5. Cade Klubnik - Clemson (7.0)
6. Spencer Rattler - S. Carolina (7.1)
7. Carson Beck - Georgia (7.7)

— Arrogant Nation✌ (@FightOnRusty) October 2, 2023

When they play Michigan: If Penn State IS “good Iowa,” then we’re now talking about the potential of a “This Is THE Year” team heading to a road game at Iowa at 9-0. Has a 9-0 Michigan team ever traveled to Iowa? I’m genuinely not sure. Someone should look that up. That would be interesting to find out.

Next game: Bye
 

Maryland (5-0, 2-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Indiana, 44-17

Recap: Five September games. A 5-0 start. Coincidence? I think not.

If I thought for one fleeting second that anyone in the Big Ten Offices (a) had ever been on the Internet, or (b) had anything resembling a sense of humor, I would suspect that this year’s schedule was them being in on the joke. Their two September Big Ten opponents were a post-apocalyptic Michigan State and Indiana, followed immediately by a trip to Columbus for a nationally televised game.

This team is as frightening as: An M. Night Shyamalan movie. Oh gee I wonder if there is a plot twist coming and what that plot twist could possibly be. Fear Level = 7

Michigan should worry about: Good Taulia.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Bad Taulia.

When they play Michigan: The third week of November. That’s the first time Michigan will be facing an above-average passing attack. Adding the four West Coast teams sucks in a lot of ways, but in this specific way, next year will be a lot more fun.

Next game: @ Ohio State, Big Noon Saturday, FOX (Maryland +20)
 

 

Ohio State (4-0, 1-0 B1G)

Last week: Bye

Recap: No recap. Bye.

This team is as frightening as: Any movie involving peril and a dog. As a Michigan fan you want to enjoy the season and just follow along with the plot, but the whole time you’re distracted by your concerns about what might happen to the dog. Fear Level = 10

Michigan should worry about: I know we joked a great deal about Ohio State’s 3rd down conversion rates, but they’ve improved every week, to the point where they converted 59% of their 17 attempts against Notre Dame.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: This is Lou Holtz’s fault.

 

Ohio State leads the nation in short-yardage run defense (33%) and is almost last (126) in short-yardage run offense (53%)

— Marcus Hartman (@marcushartman) October 4, 2023

When they play Michigan: WE’RE SO TOUGH YOU GUYS. DID YOU HEAR THE PART WHERE WE ARE TOUGH?

Next game: vs. Maryland, Big Noon Saturday, FOX (OSU -20)

Objects in the Rearview Mirror

East Carolina (1-4, 0-1 AAC)

Last week: Lost at Rice, 24-17

Recap: Not that it was likely to happen, but any shot at a bowl game seemed to go out the window with this one. ECU was statistically the better team, outgaining Rice by more than 100 yards and picking yp 25 first downs to Rice’s 14. The game was tied with under 7 minutes left, but then ECU lost, which is something that ECU apparently just does all the time now.

Next game: Bye

UNLV (4-1, 1-0 MWC)

UNLV: Fabulous

Last week: Beat Hawai’i, 44-20

Recap: UNLV is, as we all expected, an unstoppable juggernaut. Hawai’i never had a possession with a chance to cut UNLV’s lead to even a one-score game after the Rebels took a 10-0 lead early in the second quarter. UNLV rushed for 307 total yards at 6.5 yards per carry. UNLV is currently #3 in the country with 17 rushing touchdowns, well ahead of Michigan’s paltry 11.

Next game: Bye

Bowling Green (2-3, 0-1 MAC)

Last week: Beat Georgia Tech, 38-27

Recap: Well isn’t this a pleasant surprise. The Falcons, left for dead by your author last week and trailing 14-0 barely a few minutes into this game, Undertaker-from-the-coffin’d for 38 consecutive points. The game was relatively even on the stat sheet, but BG forced 3 turnovers and didn’t lose a single turnover themselves (which is big, considering they were averaging 4 lost turnovers per game against FBS opponents). And while we all know how much Time Of Possession is overvalued, holding the ball against a Power 5 team for 42:45 says something about something.

(What it most likely says is, “Georgia Tech is a tire fire,” but that is a topic for another blog)

Next game: @ Miami (NTM), 3:30 p.m., ESPN+ (BG +10)

Rutgers (4-1, 1-1 B1G)

Last week: Beat Wagner, 52-3

Recap: A couple of weeks ago we discussed the prospect of playing Ohio State the week after playing Houston Christian. This was the exact opposite. The week after playing Michigan, Rutgers faced Wagner team that was 1-10 last year at the FCS level and opened this year with a 30-point loss to Fordham. The results were predictable. Rutgers scored on every full possession, and they held Wagner to 6 first downs and 106 total yards of offense.

At this point, I would say that Rutgers is more likely than not to make a bowl game? They need two more wins, and they have Indiana, Iowa, and Michigan State left, as well as a November Maryland team coming off the Michigan game. Of those four games, ESPN Analytics has them winning… 1.98 games.

BowlQuest? BowlQuest.

The quest continues anew.

Next game: @ Wisconsin, noon, Peacock (Rutgers +13)