Greetings! It has been far too long, friends. Please, have a seat. Can I get you anything? A drink? A burger?

HAHA YOU HAVE FALLEN FOR THE OLDEST TRICK IN THE BOOK. You are hereby suspended for the first four weeks of Opponent Watch 2023.

/places finger to ear

…okay, I’m being informed that you are NOT suspended for the first four weeks of Opponent Watch 2023. But we’ll revisit this issue this summer. Rest assured that I am still QUITE cross with you. You shall get what is coming to you. Assuming you come back for Opponent Watch 2024.

But please come back for Opponent Watch 2024.

For those of you who are new to this platypus rodeo, every week during the 2023 season we will wander through Michigan’s slate of opponents and talk about some stuff. Some of that stuff will be about football. Some of it will be tangentially related to football. And some of it will really, REALLY not be about football. I can’t promise that you will learn anything, but I CAN promise that we will be not learning that stuff TOGETHER. And in the end, isn’t that what really matters?

The friends we met along the way [Barron]

The Road Ahead

East Carolina

Last year: 8-5 (4-4 AAC), won Birmingham Bowl over Coastal Carolina, 53-29

Recap: Before we get too deep here, yes. I know. The first half of the schedule is bad. This is not my fault. This is not your fault. It is only partially Michigan’s fault. Sometimes it really do just be like that.

2022 was supposed to be The Year for ECU, and it nearly was. They won 8 games ⁠— their best total since 2014 ⁠— but it could (and arguably should) have been better. They missed a 42-yard field goal to beat #13 NC State in Week 1, they lost to Navy in double-overtime, and they lost by two to Cincinnati. On the other hand, they beat Memphis in quadruple-overtime and beat BYU and Temple by three points each, so 8 wins was probably about right.

When last we saw them: Michigan has never played the Pirates. However, in program history, Michigan is 11-3 (.786) against teams from North Carolina, 92-23-2 (.800) against teams whose primary colors include purple (their best against any color, though Michigan is currently on a 1-game purple losing streak), 81-26-2 (.757) against teams with a cardinal direction in their name, and 23-5-1 (.821) against teams whose mascot is wholly or primarily focused on sea-based combat*. All positive signs.

*If Ancient Troy had spent more time on developing their naval capabilities and less time building walls, this number would be significantly worse for Michigan, and it would have given Troy a much better chance against Achilles and company.

This team is as frightening as: Commercial air travel. Realistically, the worst thing you can expect is some minor inconveniences. But it’s not super exciting, and until you actually feel the thing take off, there’s a part of your mind that wonders, “I wonder how this giant piece of metal can defeat gravity.” Fear Level = 3

Michigan should worry about: Coming off a largely successful season (albeit one with a disappointing ending) and harboring legitimate national title aspirations on the strength of a returning 5-star quarterback, an All-American mighty-mite running back, and a mammoth offensive line, Michigan is a massive favorite in a season opener against a supposedly overmatched team from North Carolina. At home. At noon. In the first game of a new TV deal on a channel lots of people don’t have.

Things probably won’t go wrong. But things could go wrong.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: ECU hasn’t played a game in front of more than 60,000 people since 2016. They’re breaking in a new quarterback and a bunch of new defensive players. They are also not the two-time defending FCS National Champion.

When they play Michigan: You may feel underwhelmed about it today, but when Saturday morning rolls around, I’m guessing those feelings will be overtaken by the overall sense of FOOOOTBAAAAAAAALLLLLLLL.

First game: @ Michigan, noon, Peacock
 

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UNLV

Last year: 5-7 (3-5 MWC), no bowl game

No word on whether UNLV will be bringing the Turnover Slot Machine

Recap: UNLV started last season 4-1, including two wins over bowl teams. Yes, those bowl teams were North Texas and Utah State, but lots of teams don’t make a bowl game. Heck, some teams pay their coaches $9.5 million per year and still don’t end up in a bowl game. So that’s nothing to sneeze at. Still, a six-game skid put a bit of a damper on the season.

Since then, the Rebels were gutted by the transfer portal. They will be very bad this season.

When last we saw them: Michigan has only faced UNLV once, in 2015. Michigan won a thoroughly forgettable yawner, 28-7, in which Michigan took a 21-0 lead midway through the second quarter and then just sat on it. UNLV gained 235 total yards, which seems like a fair over-under for this year's matchup.

This team is as frightening as: Commercial train travel. Like commercial air travel, but with less anxiety and less novelty. And instead of wondering how to defeat gravity, you’re hoping not to hit, like, a Chevy Tahoe. Fear Level = 2

Michigan should worry about: Ricky White. Remember Ricky White? Yeah, UNLV has Ricky White.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Remember 2022 Hawai’i? The team Michigan led 42-0 at halftime? The team Michigan outgained by more than SEVEN yards per play? UNLV lost to 2022 Hawai’i. And this UNLV team projects to be worse than that team.

When they play Michigan: I’m not saying “you should be watching significant chunks of Iowa/Iowa State on FOX, which will be on at the same time as this game.” I would never say that. I just think it’s important that you know it is an option.

First game: vs. Bryant, 4:00 p.m.
 

Bowling Green

Last year: 6-7 (5-3 MAC), lost Quick Lane Bowl to New Mexico State, 24-19

Recap: Bowling Green didn’t luck their way into bowl eligibility last season. They didn’t goose their schedule with a win over an FCS team. They LOST to an FCS team ⁠— Idaho ⁠— and still managed to find six wins.

When last we saw them: Michigan is 2-0 all-time against BG, with a 35 point win in 2000 and a 44-point win in 2010. That game is remembered for an awesome Denard touchdown run and a DAMN YOU UNIVERSE 45-yard Denard run that saw him ding his knee on the tackle when he probably could have stepped out of bounds after the first 40 yards. He wasn’t 100% for the rest of the year. Still, Michigan outgained the Falcons 721-283, and I believe this was the only game in which Denard, Devin Gardner, and Tate Forcier all saw significant time at quarterback.

This was an all-time “Remembering Some Dudes” game. John McColgan scored a touchdown. Ray Vinopal had an interception. Teric Jones had several carries. Just an all-around effort.

This team is as frightening as: Black licorice. Very few people would choose it over almost any other option, but, I mean, it’s here, so whatever. Enjoyment levels are likely to be extremely low, and there is very little nutrition to be gained. And you may think to yourself, “while it may cause some momentary discomfort, at least it’s risk-free.” But in 2020 a Massachusetts man died when he ate a bag and a half of black licorice every day for weeks; apparently the glycyrrhizic acid in the licorice caused his potassium levels to plummet, eventually leading to a heart attack.

I guess the point is: you never know? Fear Level = 2

Michigan should worry about: Overconfidence.  Lack of Focus.  Spent all night at a strip club a la Varsity Blues.  JJ McCarthy meditates so deeply he can’t be awakened. Maybe the problem with Indiana Connor Bazelak was the “Indiana” and not the “Connor Bazelak.” Lord knows that’s not a huge leap.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Bowling Green is #128 in preseason SP+. Bowling Green is no UNLV. And UNLV is no ECU.

When they play Michigan: Michigan has seven quarterbacks on the roster this season. That means that unfortunately, unless they let Donovan uncork one, they can only tie this performance from last year’s UConn game.

First game: @ Liberty, noon, CBSSN
 

Rutgers

Last year: 4-8 (1-8 B1G), no bowl game

Recap: Did you know there is a loudest possible sound?

Pictured: pending loudness [Barron]

It’s true. Sound is propagated by pressure waves, which alternate between areas of high pressure and areas of low pressure. The greater the difference between the high pressure and low pressure, the louder the sound. But at about 194 decibels, the ‘low pressure’ is effectively a vacuum, so the amplitude can’t get any bigger, and anything louder becomes a shock wave that travels out ahead of the actual sound waves. (Fun fact: that’s actually why you see those giant water jets at the base of rocket launches. It's not because of the heat, but rather because without those noise-dampening systems the sound energy would rip the vehicle apart). So, beyond a certain point, ‘louder’ ceases to have any real meaning.

Rutgers has been off-the-scale-loud bad for most of its time in the Big Ten. They’ve been so bad that “better Rutgers” or “worse Rutgers” wasn’t even a useful description. As a result, when their level of suck decreased, it was hard to notice, because they were still at or near the theoretical maximum level of suck. But I think they sucked less last year.

Most of the decrease in suck was on the defense, which performed admirably right up until about halftime of the Michigan game. Their collapse over the last 3.5 games hurt their numbers, but even with those games, they still finished with a better yards-per-play defense than… checks notes… Ohio State.

When last we saw them: Rutgers led Michigan at halftime for the second time in three years. Then Michigan scored the final 38 points of the game, which helped. It wasn’t as many as the time Michigan scored the 99 consecutive points against Rutgers between the 2015 and 2017 seasons… but still, it was nice to see.

This team is as frightening as: A Pilot Episode Homer version of Iowa.

The defense is good. The offense is… limited. But overall, while both are loveable, predictable oafs, one is just much less refined and developed in its predictable oafness. Fear Level = 4

Michigan should worry about: Rutgers may have the best defensive line (depending on your feelings about Minnesota or Michigan State), and probably the best pair of corners, that Michigan will see before November.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: The two factors that have kept Rutgers at sound-created-by-Krakatoa levels of terrible for the past eight years, offensive line play and the ability to throw the ball even a little bit downfield, don’t look like they’re going to improve any time soon.

When they play Michigan: It looks like Michigan WILL have Jim Harbaugh on the sidelines. Which will definitely matter.

First game: vs. Northwestern, SUNDAY at noon, for reasons, CBS
 

Nebraska

Last year: 4-8 (3-6 B1G), no bowl game

Recap: No team was more primed from a regression-to-the-mean season than 2022 Nebraska. In 2021, you will recall, they scored 239 points in conference play, surrendered 239 points in conference play, and parlayed that into a 1-8 conference record. 8 of their 9 losses were by a single score. Even if they didn’t improve at all, or hell, even if they regressed a little bit, they were mathematically certain to ‘improve.’

But Nebraska, long an odd cultural fit in the Big Ten, refused to yield to the nerds and their nerd math. They lost the season opener to Northwestern ⁠— Pat Fitzgerald’s final win at Northwestern ⁠— and then surrendered 45 points and 642 yards to a 6-7 Georgia Southern team, at which point Trev Alberts finally pulled the ripcord on Scott Frost.

The lone bright spot was defeating Iowa at Kinnick in a Black Friday game that kept the Fightin’ Ferentzi from the most infuriating division title in the history of organized sport.

When last we saw them: A quintessential 2022 Michigan game, where you think to yourself “yeah I know the outcome was never in doubt, but this nevertheless feels mildly frustrating.” Like when your friend owns a hydraulic press but refuses to squish anything spectacular with it. Michigan scored the winning points on its first drive, covered the spread, and held Nebraska to their lowest total yardage since their 2018 loss to Michigan… but, like, it could have been more awesomer?

This team is as frightening as: Baby Groot. There is a chance it will grow to something approximating its prior heights and seems like they’ve has fallen in with a pretty good crew, but at the moment they look pretty dang snappable. Fear Level = 5

Michigan should worry about: Matt Rhule excels at the thing Scott Frost struggled with most: organizing a fundamentally competent football team.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Rhule was a combined 3-21 in his first seasons at Baylor and Temple, and Nebraska’s cupboard is awfully bare along the lines. It’s gonna take a minute.

When they play Michigan: I feel compelled to use this space to remind you that the truest things are the meanest things. And as someone who has said some mean stuff about Nebraska, this is the meanest thing I’ve ever seen.

Nobody has a greater sense of misplaced arrogance about the program they cover than the Nebraska beat.

Western Michigan With Balloons doesn't get to call any part of the schedule 'slumming' lol c'mon https://t.co/X9g1hc94vT

— Matt Brown (@MattBrownEP) June 11, 2023

 

“Western Michigan with balloons.” Goddang.

First game: @ Minnesota, THURSDAY at 8:00 p.m., FOX
 

Minnesota

Last year: 9-4 (5-4 B1G), won Pinstripe Bowl over Syracuse, 28-20

Recap: Is Minnesota good?

Yes. But also no. Maybe? They were 9-4 last year, but their best win was either post-head-coach-firing Wisconsin or 7-6 Syracuse. PJ Fleck has them 18-1 in non-conference games since taking over as head coach, but they’re 26-26 in conference play. They’ve won 9+ games in each of the last three full seasons, but outside of one Outback Bowl season in 2019 they’ve finished unranked every season under Fleck.

It’s possible this is Minnesota’s ceiling: a good team. An “Also Receiving Votes” champion. A cold, polite NC State. And 2022 was no different: throttled the bad teams, lost comfortably to the good teams, won about half of the coin flips against mediocre teams. The secret sauce, of course, has been the good team/bad team/mediocre team ratio. Since Fleck arrived in 2017, Minnesota has scheduled three P5 non-conference games: one against 1-11 Made-Gary-Andersen’s-ass-quit Oregon State, and two against a combined 5-19 how-did-it-take-you-this-long-to-fire-Karl-Dorrell Colorado.

This year, they get UNC in the non-conference and both Michigan and Ohio State in crossover games. We’ll find out whether Minnesota is actually ascending, or whether this is as high as it gets.

When last we saw them: #18 Michigan defeated #21 Minnesota on the strength of a fantastic Joe Milton outing. Up next: a sure-fire throttling of a hapless Michigan State team coming off a loss to RUTGERS. What are they gonna do, Ricky White us?

2020, man.

Joe Milton’s final rushing touchdown for Michigan [AP]

This team is as frightening as: Minnesota, circa the last generation or so.

Outside of the Tim Brewster Era, Minnesota has just been “Minnesota” since the end of the 20th Century. I expect nothing less ⁠— or more ⁠— this season. Fear Level = 6.5

Michigan should worry about: Minnesota will be coming off of games against Northwestern and Louisiana.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Minnesota loses Mo Ibrahim and Trey Pott’s combined 35 carries per game, Tanner Morgan’s eleventy-three years of experience, the best pieces of their offensive line, and Football Ross and Rachel On-Again-Off-Again Offensive Coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca. It might take a while for the offense to gel.

When they play Michigan: This will possibly be the beefiest offensive line matchup of the season in college football. Not the best, or possibly even the biggest. But the beefiest.

First game: vs. Nebraska, THURSDAY at 8:00 p.m., FOX