About Last Week

 

Fuller

Repeat after me: Physics is not your friend.

The Road Ahead

Nebraska (3-3, 1-2 B1G)

Last week: Beat Northwestern, 56-7

Recap: There isn’t much onion to peel here. The most points they’ve scored under Scott Frost. More than doubling Northwestern’s offensive efficiency (8.9 yards per play vs. 4.4 for Northwestern). Explosive plays of 64, 70, and 83 yards. A 21-0 lead after 11 minutes, a 35-7 lead at halftime. Just an out-and-out thumping.

We talked about this when Maryland beat Illinois: it’s a proof of concept. For Maryland, it was the ability to follow up a couple of opening wins with something other than disaster. For Nebraska, it’s the idea that they can overwhelm Big Ten defenses by attacking the entire field horizontally and vertically, including using the quarterback in the run game, to win matchups in space.

The catch here is that Northwestern is very bad, but more than that, they are bad because they are a combination of unathletic and inexperienced that you rarely see in a Big Ten team. They were the perfect matchup for Nebraska. So if it wasn’t going to work here, it just wasn’t going to work. But they took advantage of that perfect matchup, so that’s not nothing.

This team is as frightening as: An adolescent hippopotamus. Somewhat clumsy and not entirely sure what it’s doing most of the time, but still very aggressive and territorial. Fear Level = 7

Michigan should worry about: 56 points!

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Against Northwestern.

When they play Michigan: Nebraska is 5-1 against the spread. And when the spread is 3 points, that’s particularly relevant.

Next game: vs. Michigan, 7:30 p.m., ABC (Nebraska +3)

[AFTER THE JUMP: Additional words and pictures and stuff.]

Northwestern (2-3, 0-2 B1G)

Last week: Lost at Nebraska, 56-7

Recap: It’s hard to identify exactly where Northwestern’s problem resides, as it moves around from phase to phase, never sleeping twice in the same position group. Sometimes they’re giving up 350 passing yards to Duke. Sometimes they’re giving up 326 rushing yards to Michigan State. Sometimes they’re failing to crack 4.5 yards per pass attempt against Ohio or Indiana State. Sometimes they’re rushing for 37 yards on 26 carries against Nebraska.

The “where exactly did the iceberg strike this week” debate is ⁠— much like Northwestern’s continued justification as a member of the Big Ten Conference ⁠— ultimately academic. The bottom line is that they don’t do anything consistently well, and no area of the team seems to have a floor higher than “7th World Turtle down.”

This week, I’ll spin the wheel-o-blame and land on “the back seven isn’t nearly athletic enough to deal with a modern spread offense” and “they gave up plays of 70 and 64 yards on Nebraska’s first two drives and melted the hell down.”

This team is as frightening as:

Fear Level = 3

Michigan should worry about: Northwestern threw for more than 250 yards for the second time in two conference games, surpassing their combined 2019 and 2020 250+ yard B1G games by two.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: They just allowed the most points Nebraska has scored in any game since 2013 (and against any FBS team since 2010). And that was after Nebraska took their foot off the gas with 20 minutes left and basically kneeled the game out on the Northwestern 10 yard line.

When they play Michigan: It will represent the culmination of two weeks of pretending to be focused on Northwestern while not-so-secretly looking ahead a week.

Next game: Bye

 

Michigan State

Last week: Beat Western Kentucky, 48-31

Recap: The sign of a good “WTF?” game is not knowing whether the score should have been much closer or much less close.

On the “this should probably have been closer” side of the ledger, WKU wasted multiple red zone trips on three field goals and a turnover on downs at the MSU 1. Quarterback Bailey Zappe completed 46 of 65 passes for 488 yards, and the Hilltoppers outgained Michigan State and picked up more first downs (though MSU outgained them in yards per play because OH MY GOD WKU RAN SO MANY PLAYS).

Buuuuuuuut MSU was up 7-0 before they ran a single offense play (Jayden Reed returned a punt for a touchdown), they went up 21-3 on their 11th offensive play, and they scored 42 points in the FIRST HALF. Boredom and a large second half lead seemed to be the only thing slowing Michigan State down, because its hard to envision any scenario where this defense ⁠— the same defense that broken-ass Indiana tuned up ⁠— was going to stop Michigan State when it actually mattered.

This team is as frightening as: The prospect of stress-eating the entire Halloween candy supply on October 30th. Fear Level = 8

Michigan should worry about: Jayden Reed leads the nation with 176.6 all-purpose yards per game. He’s in the #24 in receiving yards per game, #10 in kickoff return average (only a yard/return behind Blake Corum), and #3 in punt return average. He’s scored 8 touchdowns in 5 games, 4th most nationally among receivers.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: At least Ricky White is gone?

When they play Michigan: More mutual clenching than any Michigan/Michigan State game since 2015.

Next game: @ Rutgers, noon, BTN (MSU -5)

Indiana (2-3, 0-2 B1G)

Last week: Lost at Penn State, 24-0

Recap: I do not tread into Big Lebowski territory often, but I think it is necessary at this point:

NSFW, which, obviously

Tom Allen is, in this ONE VERY NARROW CIRCUMSTANCE, The Dude. Losing 24-0 to Penn State to drop to 2-3 on the season isn’t great, nor is scoring a combined 6 points in your first two conference games, nor is being in the bottom 3 in the conference in yards per pass, yards per carry, or yards per carry allowed. Sure, those are all bad numbers. But numbers can only tell you about the past. Non-numbers (commonly called words) can tell you about the future. And these are some bad words.

 

Michael Penix has an AC separation in his left shoulder. Week to week. #iufb

— Zach Osterman (@ZachOsterman) October 4, 2021

Tim Baldwin in the portal, meaning IU's entire RB three-deep from 2020 is now gone. Behind Stephen Carr, the Hoosiers' depth is about to be seriously tested: https://t.co/nahCjajbFp via @indystar #iufb

— Zach Osterman (@ZachOsterman) October 4, 2021

The bye week comes at the perfect time, but when they return they face a gauntlet of three top 11 teams in four weeks (Michigan State, Ohio State, and Michigan)… with a game against Maryland mixed in there as well.

I’m not going to say I told you so. That’s very gracious of you.

Because we both know. Yes, we do.

…that I told you so. So much for not saying…

I told you so? Yes

…

Told you so.

This team is as frightening as: A sleeping guard dog, but the guard dog is a basset hound. If it stays asleep, you’re fine. If it wakes up, you’re only PROBABLY fine. Fear Level = 3.5

Michigan should worry about: Maybe a few weeks off will allow Penix to gather himself and make a strong final push.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Poor damn Indiana.

 

Hardest schedules to date, per SP+ SOS:
1. Wisconsin
2. Ga Tech
3. Miami
4. Rutgers
5. Indiana

Hardest full-season schedules:
1. Indiana
2. Penn State
3. Arkansas
4. Auburn
5. Nebraska

Not great timing on that, PSU.

— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) October 4, 2021

 

When they play Michigan: You’ve really got to squint if you want to see a #CHAOSTEAM in this pile.

 

Next game: Bye

Penn State (5-0, 2-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Indiana, 24-0

Recap: I wish I had more to say about Penn State. But unfortunately, this is one team for whom the transitive property of football simply breaks down. I’m not sure you could play a more confusing schedule in terms of “is this a good win” than Wisconsin, Auburn, and Indiana. Wisconsin defaults as a good win (especially in Madison), but it was the season opener, and Michigan and Notre Dame beat them by a combined 49 points. Indiana was a ranked team entering the season, but they have three losses already, but those losses were to the #3, #4, and #5 teams in the country (in both the polls and in SP+). And Auburn… amigo, let me tell you some things about the Chaos Factory that is Auburn football.

I would say “we’ll find out this weekend when they play Top-5 Iowa,” but… are we sure Iowa is good?

This team is as frightening as: Chekov’s Gun. They’re there, so at some point, they’ll get fired. Right? Fear Level = 8.5

Michigan should worry about: Jahan Dotson is averaging 7 catches per game, leading the Big Ten. He also has touchdown catches in his last six games.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Penn State only has 5 sacks in 4 FBS games, despite facing a total of 155 passing attempts in those 4 games.

When they play Michigan: Possibly the first matchup between a Top-10 Michigan and a Top-10 Penn State since 1997.

 

Next game: @ Iowa, 4:00 p.m., FOX (PSU +2.5)

Maryland (4-1, 1-1 B1G)

Last week: Lost to Iowa, 51-14

Recap: You’re at a diner. You order some hash browns, and because this is America, you want some ketchup on them. So you grab the glass bottle of Heinz and tip it upside down. And you get a little ketchup, but not enough. So you tap it a little. And shake it a little. But you know what will happen, so you say to yourself, “self, when the ketchup starts coming, you have to react quickly.” And then nothing… and then nothing… and then nothing… and then the entire plate is covered with ketchup, as is the countertop, and the floor, and your shirt. You try to react, but in doing so you fling the bottle across the diner and knock a waitress unconscious and start a small grease fire. Meanwhile in the parking lot your car is repossessed. Also your girlfriend leaves you for your roommate. And the scrambled eggs get cold.

That’s late September/Early October Maryland. It isn’t a gradual decline from competence into incompetence. No, it’s a flying elbow from the top rope into the ringside announcing table.

The trigger this year was, unfortunately, a season-ending leg injury to Dontay Demus on a kickoff return when Iowa had just scored to take a 10-7 lead. To add injury to insult, Demus (understandably) fumbled on the play, giving Iowa the ball in a goal-to-go situation, and Maryland never recovered. They allowed 28 points in a 9 minute stretch, ultimately allowing Iowa to score 41 straight points. Taulia Tagovialoa threw five interceptions, and backup Reece Udinski (who is apparently Maryland’s backup?) tacked on one last pick for a nice round seven turnover day.

This team is as frightening as: Sad West African Mud Turtle.

Can’t you see how sad he is? Fear Level = 5

Michigan should worry about: When they aren’t turning the ball over, Maryland’s offense remains quite potent, even without Demus. And most teams, Michigan included, don’t have the magical Iowa power of making other teams forget how to hold onto the goddang football.

Michigan can sleep soundly about:

 

Maryland finished September undefeated and on the first day of October they immediately coughed up seven turnovers and lost by 37 points, wave a pumpkin spice latte in their direction and they go into shock every year

— BUM CHILLUPS AKA SPENCER HALL (@edsbs) October 2, 2021

It’s pumpkin spiced turnover season.

When they play Michigan: I hope we get Late Season Turnover Maryland. Late Season Turnover Maryland is more fun.

Next game: @ Ohio State, noon, FOX (Maryland +20.5)

 

Ohio State (4-1, 2-0 B1G)

Last week: Won at Rutgers, 52-13

Recap: Yeesh.

This team is as frightening as: Shady’s back. Fear Level = 10

Michigan should worry about: CJ Stroud is apparently no longer broken. Oh good.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Haha, as if we’re all going to survive until then.

When they play Michigan: What did I just say.

Next game: vs. Maryland, noon, FOX (OSU -20.5)

Western Michigan (4-1, 1-0 MAC)

Last week: Won at Buffalo, 24-17

Still obligatory

Recap: Weird day for Western punter Nick Mihalic. He punted 90 seconds into the game and didn’t punt again the entire afternoon, but was called on to kick a 26 yard field goal ⁠— the first of his career ⁠— after regular kicker Parker Sampson missed two makeable kicks.

The game probably shouldn’t have been as close as the score would indicate. Outside of the shortened game state ⁠— each team only had 9 drives ⁠— and the missed field goals, Western outgained Buffalo by 175 yards and picked up 29 first downs to the Bulls’ 15. Skyy Moore continued his pesky ways, gaining 163 yards on 11 catches with 2 TDs. He’s averaging a MAC-leading 8.5 catches and 103.3 receiving yards per game. Overall, the Broncos are averaging 8.4 yards per pass attempt against non-Michigan opponents (they averaged 5.2 in Ann Arbor).

According to SP+, Western currently has about a 38% chance of a 10 or 11 win season, including a 10% chance of winning out.

Next game: vs. Ball State, 3:30 p.m., ESPNU (WMU -11)

Washington (2-3, 1-1 Pac-12)

Last week: Lost at Oregon State, 27-24

Recap: Michigan has to stop scheduling Strength of Schedule anchors like Washington. Stick with quality MAC opponents, or perhaps an upper-end Sun Belt team.

Oregon State isn’t ‘Gary Andersen Oregon State’ anymore, but they still aren’t great. And I don’t know how to research a stat like this, but I’ll just go ahead and assume that the last time a team lost two games in the first five weeks to team that threw for fewer than 50 yards at 3.2 yards per attempt or worse, the only TikTok folks were worried about was the winding of their pocket watches as they contemplated the rapidly escalating conflict with the Kaiser.

One thing is important to note from this game. It has been true for a while, but it hasn’t come up here because it hasn’t been particularly relevant. But Oregon State has a Turnover Chainsaw.

Pictured: Turnover Chainsaw (Karl Maasdam - Oregon State athletics)

According to SP+, Washington currently has about a 0% chance of a 10 or 11 win season… but they’re about a 3-to-1 favorite to make a bowl game. Small victories, I suppose. Which are better than small losses. To Oregon State. And Montana.

Next game: Bye

Northern Illinois (3-2, 1-0 MAC)

Last week: Beat Eastern Michigan, 27-20

Recap: Rocky Lombardi’s passer rating in his four games this season against FCS opponents:

• Georgia Tech: 170.7
• Wyoming: 99.6
• Michigan: 83.3
• Eastern Michigan: 80.3

This does not seem to be trending in the right direction for this particular Husky. However, according to SP+, NIU is slightly more likely than Washington to make a bowl game.

(Look, I’m not trying to dunk on Washington. Math is trying to dunk on Washington. I’m just reporting what math is doing. Take it up with math.)

Next game: @ Toledo, noon, CBSSN (NIU +12.5)

 

Rutgers (3-2, 0-2 B1G)

Last week: Lost to Ohio State, 52-13

Recap: It felt like Rutgers was turning the corner. Unfortunately, they didn’t check to see if there was a wall around that corner. Or a crowd of nuns. Or two pastry chefs carrying a massive tiered cake next to a guy on stilts in an Uncle Sam costume. Nope, they just turned that corner at full speed, and… boom pow squish.

Rutgers played this game like they were trying to win it, not trying to simply keep the game closer than the average margin of victory in this ‘rivalry’ (43.0 points) or hold Ohio State to fewer points than their average (53.7 points). That’s why they went for it on fourth down SIX times in the game, including a fake punt on the first drive. However, they failed on four of those fourth down plays, and as a result, while they technically kept the game closer than the average OSU/Rutgers game (39 points) and held Ohio State below their average (yielding only 52 points), they emphatically did not win the game.

Next game: vs. Michigan State, noon, BTN (Rutgers +5)