Wisconsin (1-2, 0-1 B1G)

Last week: Lost to Notre Dame, 41-13

Recap: I hate discussing the same aspect of a team week after week. It’s boring, predictable, and beneath the considerable dignity of this column.

But… Graham Mertz. Buddy.

Wisconsin took a 13-10 lead early in the fourth quarter, but Notre Dame returned the ensuing kickoff for a 96-yard touchdown. Wisconsin’s next five drives were as follows:

• Mertz fumble
• Missed FG; Mertz was 2/6 for 30 yards on the drive
• Mertz interception
• Mertz interception; returned for a touchdown
• Mertz interception; returned for a touchdown

Notre Dame scored 31 points in the fourth quarter, with drive lengths of N/A yards, 46 yards, 4 yards, N/A yards, and N/A yards. Mertz now has 8 turnovers on the season (in only three games). He has the lowest passer rating in the conference, and his longest rush of the season is 4 yards.

Highest INT% qualified passers

1. Graham Mertz - 6.3%
2. Gavin Hardison - 5.5%
3. Rocky Lombardi - 5.3%
3. Jace Ruder - 5.3%
5. Will Levis - 5%
6. Emory Jones - 4.9%
7. Ty Keyes - 4.8%
7. Clayton Tune - 4.8%
9. Logan Bonner - 4.3%
9. McKenzie Milton - 4.3%

— Tom Fornelli (@TomFornelli) September 28, 2021

The defense is great (they held Notre Dame to single digits on the ground). The offensive line isn’t vintage Wisconsin, but it’s a good enough of a knock-off version to fool your friends. But until their golden boy starts producing at least passable quarterback play, Wisconsin is going to continue to struggle.

This team is as frightening as: Global warming. Terrifying on an existential level, and on a long enough timeline it’ll kill us all, but it doesn’t mean that some days aren’t still quite pleasant. Fear Level = 7

Michigan should worry about: Wisconsin’s rushing defense is, statistically speaking, pants-crappingly good. Despite two of their three games being against Penn State and Notre Dame, they’re allowing a best-in-the-nation 2.3 yards per carry (sack-adjusted). They have allowed one carry of 10+ yards all season.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Michigan has come out of the gates strong offensively in three of their four games. If they can get Graham Mertz playing from behind, there is decent origami potential.

When they play Michigan: It’s two of the top 11 teams in college football according to SP+. Because math is bad and those who do math should feel bad.

Next game: v. Michigan, noon, FOX (UW +1)

[AFTER THE JUMP: Jump up jump up and get down]

Nebraska (2-3, 0-2 B1G)

Last week: Lost at Michigan State, 23-20 (OT)

Recap: Even by Nebraska standards, this one stings.

The Huskers outgained Michigan State by almost 200 yards. They ran 32 more offensive plays. They gained 26 first downs while only allowing 12 for Michigan State. They held Kenneth Walker to 39 yards on 17 carries in regulation. They held Michigan State to 14 total yards on 15 offensive plays in the second half, holding them without a SINGLE first down. But Nebraska, despite the odds, found a way to lose.

This time, the scapegoat is backup punter Daniel Cerni, who blasted a low line drive to Jayden Reed on the left side of the field while the ENTIRE COVERAGE UNIT was hauling ass towards the right side.

I said to Hollywood, "where'd he go?" And Hollywood says, “where’d whooooo goooooo?”

But Cerni is just this week’s cause célèbre. Next week it’ll be someone else. Because damn near every week it’s someone or something. Nebraska is an almost incomprehensible 5-15 in one-score games under Scott Frost. At some point, it’s you.

This team is as frightening as: John L. Smith Era Michigan State.

Nebraska's postgame win expectancies so far:

* vs. Illinois: 74% (L by 8)
* vs. Fordham: 99% (W by 39)
* vs. Buffalo: 99% (W by 25)
* vs. Oklahoma: 13% (L by 7)
* vs. Mich St: 70% (L by 3)

Second-order Ws: 3.6
Actual Ws: 2

— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) September 26, 2021

They’ve got some talent. They do some things well. But it just doesn’t matter. Fear Level = 5

Michigan should worry about: Adrian Martinez is quietly putting together solid start after solid start. He’s been over 7.3 yards per pass attempt in all five games and is second in the Big Ten (behind Sean Clifford) at 9.5 per attempt overall.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: With this defeat, Scott Frost officially has a worse record through his first 37 games at Nebraska (14-23) than Rich Rodriguez did in his 37 games at Michigan (15-22).

When they play Michigan: Michigan will make its second ever trip to Lincoln, despite Nebraska being a conference member for 11 years. I’m not quire sure what happened in the first game, but I’m sure it was fine.

Picture is unrelated

Next game: vs. Northwestern, 7:30 p.m., BTN (Nebraska -10)

Northwestern (2-2, 0-1 B1G)

Last week: Beat Ohio, 35-6

Recap: At least Nebraska is bad and interesting. Nebraska is a Michael Bay popcorn action movie where you know things are going to explode and the plot is going to have some massive holes and at the end we will solve these problems with MORE explosions. Northwestern is like a poorly conceived and poorly attended performance art piece where the artist walks slowly in a circle for three hours to raise awareness for the West African Mud Turtle (also known as the West African Side-Necked Turtle or Swamp Terrapin), which, while not endangered or even threatened, is still not particularly well known in the United States.

This team is as frightening as:

(Not to be confused with the 1996 Michael Bay movie The Rock.)

Fear Level = 3.5

Michigan should worry about: The Northwestern ground game showed signs of life (51 carries 373 yards, 4 TDs), albeit against one of the worst run defenses in the country. Evan Hull is 2nd in the Big Ten in yards per game (120) and 3rd in yards per carry (7.6).

Michigan can sleep soundly about: In the continuing effort to find a quarterback, Ryan Hilinski finished 12 of 20 for 88 yards (4.4 YPA) against an Ohio team that, while their pass defense isn’t the worst part of this winless and very very bad team, surrendered 5.7 yards per pass to Duquesne.

Hilinski’s afternoon would tend to indicate that (a) Northwestern has finally realized that Hunter Johnson isn’t the answer, (2) that Ryan Hilinski is probably not the answer either, and (d) the injury to the only quarterback to show ANY kind of spark this year, Andrew Marty, was more than a momentary thing.

When they play Michigan: Bring your needlepoint. Or a good book.

Next game: @ Nebraska, 7:30 p.m., BTN (NW +10)

Michigan State (4-0, 2-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Nebraska, 23-20 (OT)

Recap: It’s tempting to say that Michigan State basically had the same day that Michigan had. They had a solid first half, took a lead into halftime, and said, “nah, we’re good” and had to hold on for a win. The difference, though was that while Michigan dominated the first half of its game before falling asleep, State was in a dog fight from the opening snap. This was a one-score game the entire evening.

The two most positive takeaway were that Payton Thorne had a very efficient first half ⁠— completing 12 of 15 passes for 171 yards ⁠— and that they could win without Kenneth Walker being productive. Then again, how wise it to just hang around and wait for Nebraska to screw up and hand you the game? What were the odds that would work?

…

Okay, yeah. Question withdrawn.

This team is as frightening as: A root canal that you schedule four weeks ahead of time. Probably gonna suck, but the fact that you can see it that far ahead of time makes it worse.  Fear Level = 7.5

Michigan should worry about: One catastrophic half does not mean a team is bad. Right? Right? Guys… right?

Michigan can sleep soundly about: We’ve been wondering what Kenneth Walker and the MSU offensive line could produce when faced with a disciplined defense. And we only had to reach *Nebraska* on the ol’ discipline-o-meter before things went awry.

When they play Michigan: On the 17th anniversary of Braylonfest.

Next game: vs. Western Kentucky, 7:30 p.m., FS1 (MSU -10.5)

Indiana (2-2, 0-1 B1G)

Last week: Won at Western Kentucky, 33-31

Recap: The #CHAOSTEAMening continues apace. Indiana and WKU combined for 965 yards of offense, 98 pass attempts, 59 first downs, 26 players registering a catch or a carry, and only 4 punts. Indiana’s offense scored on their first 6 possessions, though 4 of those were field goals. Michael Penix completed 35 of 53 (!) attempts for 373 yards, and more importantly did not turn the ball over a single time.

This team is as frightening as: An indeterminate number of bees. Fear Level = 6

Michigan should worry about: Tiawan Mullen is one of the best corners in the country, and Ohio State would trade its left buckeye for linebacker Micah McFadden.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Indiana still can’t run the ball. Stephen Carr and Tim Baldwin have combined for 3.8 yards per carry on 114 attempts.

When they play Michigan: While it isn’t ideal to have Indiana sandwiched between Michigan State and Penn State, Indiana’s schedule does them no favors either. According to PFF, they have the 3rd hardest remaining schedule in the country. And Michigan gets the Hoosiers after they run a four-game gauntlet composed of Penn State, Michigan State, Ohio State, and Maryland.

Wait… Maryland gets to be part of a “gauntlet” now? I mean, they’re 4-0.

So is Boston College. And just outside the Top 25.

So is Boston College. Point being?

So we’re just gonna throw the term “gauntlet” around willy-nilly now. I see. Look…

No, it’s fine. Continue. Just remember that you declared ⁠— IN SEPTEMBER ⁠— that end-of-October Maryland was worthy of gauntlet designation.

Next game: @ Penn State, 7:30 p.m., ABC (IU +10.5)

Penn State (4-0, 1-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Villanova, 38-17

Recap: I wish I had more to say, but… Villanova.

This team is as frightening as: An indeterminate number of wasps. Fear Level = 8

Michigan should worry about: Alas, I fear I may suffer from what famed sociopsychologist Shaggy referred to as “cognitive bias,” wherein you are led to disbelieve what you see based on your mind’s preconceived notions of how to process information. Clifford is completing 72% of his passes for 9.7 yards per attempt. By all statistical measures, he’s been quite good. But when I watch him, I still don’t buy it. Maybe it’s because so much of his game is in the short passing game, but he’s been decent down the field as well. Beats me.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Penn State has only cracked 3 yards per carry once out of their first four games, and that was a 5.0 YPC outing against Ball State.

When they play Michigan: Penn State has struggled on 3rd down, converting only 35.4% of the time (and only 2 of 5 on 4th down). More troublingly, they’re only 4/9 on 3rd-and-2 or shorter.

Next game: vs. Indiana, 7:30 p.m., ABC (PSU -10.5)

Maryland (4-0, 1-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Kent State, 37-16

West African Mud Turtle (also known as the West African Side-Necked Turtle or Swamp Terrapin)

Recap: As was predictable coming off of an emotional landmark win like last week’s victory over Illinois, Maryland came out of the gate a little sluggish. This was a 7-6 game after one quarter before Maryland got its act together offensively and put the game out of reach.

After the first quarter the score was never close, but allowing 458 yards and surrendering 27 first down to Kent State is not ideal for any defense. Fortunately for Maryland, they face a much less potent offense this week.

This team is as frightening as: A top-25 SP+ team. Seriously. Fear Level = 6

“Fear Level = 6” isn’t very gauntlety, sir. God I hate you.

But you *are* me. I stand by it.

Michigan should worry about: Taulia Tagovialoa: still extant, still upright, still ripping. He’s also sharing the wealth more than one would expect, with 5 guys averaging 3+ catches per game

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Kent State reached Maryland territory on 13 of 15 drives. The average Kent State drive reached the Maryland 30. They reached the red zone 8 times, and only got 16 points out of it. This could have been a lot closer.

When they play Michigan: It’s during basketball season, so it’s unlikely anyone in College Park will notice.

Next game: vs. Iowa, 8:00 p.m. Friday, FS1 (UM +3)

Ohio State (3-1, 1-0 B1G)

Last week: (Final score unavailable; Akron leads 7-0 as of the time of publication)

Recap: We often say, “such-and-such is one of the worst teams in the country.” But Akron is one of the worst teams in the country. They’re in the bottom 5 according to FPI and SP+. They were a 49-point underdog to Ohio State, and failed to cover.

BUT

Legend move. Strongly approve. Would recommend to a linebacking buddy.

This team is as frightening as: When the one or two of the maniacs on a motorbike in a Mad Max film crash into each other and fall down during a chase. Like, hurray, they have marginally less ability to destroy you, leaving them with only HOLY CRAP LOOK AT ALL OF THEM. That feels like more flamethrowers than they realistically need. And does that dude have a trebuchet mounted to a dune buggy? Fear Level = 10

Tell me my man here has never yelled “O-H”

Michigan can sleep soundly about: All things being equal, it is probably better for Michigan if Ohio State has players quitting at halftime than if they do NOT have players quitting at halftime.

Michigan should worry about: No one from the offense ⁠has quit in the middle of a game… yet.

When they play Michigan: Our lawyers are looking into the matter, and we will respond promptly.

Next game: @ Rutgers, 3:30 p.m., BTN (OSU -15.5)

Objects in the Rearview Mirror

Western Michigan (3-1, 0-0 MAC)

Last week: Beat San Jose State, 23-3

Obligatory

Recap: Western pretty well walloped SJSU, holding the Spartans (NTS) to 2.1 yards per play. SJSU’s only points came on a patented Jane Coaston All-PI Offense drive that featured 22 yards of offense and 30 yards of pass interference penalties.

Western enters conference play without multiple losses for the first time since PJ Fleck took the Broncos to the Cotton Bowl in 2016. I wonder where PJ ended up, and how last weekend went for him.

Next game: @ Buffalo, noon, CBSSN (WMU -6.5)

Washington (2-2, 1-0 Pac-12)

Last week: Beat Cal, 31-24 (OT)

Recap: Joining in the “sees the dealer with a 5 showing, so holds on a pair of 3’s” theme of the week, Washington took a 24-10 lead on their first drive of the second half, and then went 4-and-out, 4-and-fumble, 5 play field goal drive, 3-and-out, and 3-and-out, allowing Cal to send the game to overtime. Fortunately for the Huskies they forced a fumble on the one yard line on 1st and goal, otherwise this could really have been an ugly loss.

Dylan Morris was reasonably efficient through the air for the second straight week, but Washington was outgained on a per play, per pass, and per carry basis. That’s… all of the bases.

(Side note: Cal’s leading receiver in this game: Kekoa Crawford. Time is a flat circle.)

Next game: @ Oregon State, 9:00 p.m., Pac 12 Network (UW -2.5)

Northern Illinois (2-2, 0-0 MAC)

Last week: Beat Maine, 41-14

Recap: NIU was a last-minute Wyoming touchdown drive from finishing 3-1 in non-conference play, which would have been an infinity percent improvement over their 0-6 record from 2020. However, a 2-2 record is still an infinity percent improvement, which is still nice.

Next game: vs. Eastern Michigan, 2:30 p.m., ESPN+ (NIU -2.5)