Moving the (Stati)Sticks: Week Seven
[Fuller/MGoBlog]
I thought I got it, but I didn’t really understand until Saturday. I grew up in a house with a dad who referred to football as the sport “where those muscle-bound gland cases run into each other” and a mom who went to Michigan State and spent every Saturday watching her beloved Spartans Sparty No! themselves into oblivion. Being an impressionable little dude I naturally followed along- at least, I did for the first 17 years of my life.
Mom spent a copious amount of time molding my fandom, and I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that when I told her I was going to Michigan she felt a lot like NFL reporters last December; of course there was a chance, but come on. I think she still spends time replaying the course of events and wondering how things turned so quickly; factor in that Michigan seeped so deeply into my soul that my profession is now entwined with the University and you can see why she feels like she had things so perfectly set up only for them to implode in the most spectacular and unlikely fashion imaginable. I get it now, mom. I saw what happened last Saturday and it was more than just watching something fall apart, it was feeling something fall apart and fall apart in mere seconds.
The funny thing about it is that it was right in front of us the whole time. The numbers, those cut-and-dry harbingers of doom, were gnawing at the back of our minds, telling us that it was a fool’s errand to hope we could run out the clock against fate. That why it stings in such a strange way. Like my mom, Michigan fans got blindsided even after turning our heads and watching it come straight for us. At some point you realize what you’re doing is the equivalent of holding together a heavy box with scotch tape and inevitably everything just spills out, and in a particularly painful but possibly (personally) karmically justified way I have some common ground with my mom once again. We both put our faith in something other than the numbers and got burned; now I know why I like stats so much.
[After THE JUMP: It went better than you thought. It also went worse than you thought.]
The Mathlete’s Four Factors:
Once again, a quick reminder of what the factors mean:
Conversion rate = [1st Downs gained]/[1st Down plays (including first play of drive)]. A three and out is 0/1. A one play touchdown is 1/1. Two first downs and then a stop is 2/3, etc.
Bonus Yards = [Yards gained beyond the first down line]/[Total plays from scrimmage]
This is an adjustment to how I have previously calculated, to account for the plays a team runs.
Field Position = The expected point difference per game for where a team’s offense starts and where a team’s defense starts. Each drive is given an expected value based on the start of scrimmage, all of the drives for the offense and defense are totaled and compared. This accounts for all elements of field position: turnovers, special teams, drive penetration etc.
Red Zone: Points per red zone trip (TD’s counted as 7 regardless of PAT)
Offense:
Field Pos. | Conv. Rate | Bonus YPP | Red Zone | |
Week 1 | 21.0 | 73 | 1.52 | 5.7 |
Rank | 60 | 30 | 59 | 27 |
Week 2 | 25.0 | 68 | 1.63 | 5.8 |
Rank | 77 | 70 | 95 | 30 |
Week 3 | 25.3 | 70 | 2.56 | 5.8 |
Rank (B1G Rk) | 84 (12) | 54 (6) | 43 (6) | 30 (5) |
Week 4 | 24.5 | 72 | 2.92 | 5.8 |
Rank (B1G Rk) | 91 (14) | 30 (4) | 31 (3) | 27 (4) |
Week 5 | 26.9 | 67 | 2.78 | 5.8 |
Rank (B1G Rk) | 59 (10) | 54 (3) | 39 (3) | 20 (2) |
Week 6 | 28.2 | 68 | 2.93 | 5.8 |
Rank (B1G Rk) | 41 (4) | 39 (1) | 25 (2) | 21 (2) |
Week 7 | 28.4 | 65 | 2.75 | 5.5 |
Rank (B1G Rk) | 36 (4) | 61 (5) | 36 (3) | 31 (2) |
Defense:
Field Pos. | Conv. Rate | Bonus YPP | Red Zone | |
Week 1 | 27.9 | 73 | 1.64 | 5.7 |
Rank | 47 | 44 | 20 | 30 |
Week 2 | 25.1 | 67 | 1.60 | 6.1 |
Rank | 51 | 58 | 23 | 88 |
Week 3 | 24.0 | 63 | 1.28 | 6.1 |
Rank (B1G Rk) | 35 (4) | 38 (6) | 9 (3) | 100 (13) |
Week 4 | 23.1 | 59 | 1.23 | 6.1 |
Rank (B1G Rk) | 29 (5) | 17 (4) | 4 (1) | 110 (13) |
Week 5 | 24.5 | 55 | 1.10 | 6.1 |
Rank (B1G Rk) | 32 (4) | 7 (2) | 1 (1) | 115 (13) |
Week 6 | 23.6 | 54 | 1.01 | 6.1 |
Rank (B1G Rk) | 21 (4) | 6 (1) | 1 (1) | 115 (12) |
Week 7 | 23.4 | 57 | 1.24 | 6.4 |
Rank (B1G Rk) | 20 (3) | 6 (1) | 1 (1) | 124 (13) |
The offense has essentially stagnated, which isn’t the worst thing in the world considering they went up against a pretty good defense. The dip in conversion rate isn’t surprising given how much the offense struggled. (More on that when we get into Success Rate, etc.)
The defense is going to get credit for some of what the excellent special teams unit did, namely Michigan State’s average starting field position of their 24.4. Their conversion rate went up, though that isn’t alarming because seven of their 13 drives saw them pick up a first down but finish by either punting or turning it over on downs (and that isn’t counting any three and outs). Bonus YPP went up because of Connor Cook the non-ironic throw god. When he hit guys it was for 13+ yards; one completion of less than 13 yards is a shining example of a boom-or-bust day. Red Zone looks even worse because someone actually got there this week, and they just had to go and score. State made four trips and came away with two touchdowns.
Advanced Box Score
It’s tilted, and not in the direction is has been for the past few week. Michigan ran 12 fewer plays for 1.9 fewer yards per play (3.69 to 5.59) on the same number of drives (13). Michigan also had one fewer scoring opportunity (5 to their 6) but did have a better pts/opp of 4.6 compared to their 3.5. That, however, is how things should have been, as Michigan’s average starting field position was their 38.3 while Michigan State’s was their 24.4 yard line. Hooray special teams (yes I saw the end just stop).
Both teams’ defenses had a big impact on the game, as neither one came close to the national average for Leverage Rate [which is Std Downs/(Std+Passing Downs)]. Michigan stayed on track more often in the aggregate (62.1% to State’s 58.3%), but State’s big pass plays held them in the game. State’s IsoPPP (which looks at how efficient you are and then how successful you are when you’re efficient and is a proxy for explosiveness) was 1.48 to Michigan’s 1.30. The surest sign that there was a huge difference in passing games can be seen in State’s equivalent points, where the expected points from their passing game was 26.5. Michigan’s was just 16.6. The run games were pretty even, with Michigan’s run game expected to contribute 8.1 points and State’s expected to contribute 7.6 points
Despite that, Michigan’s Success Rate (defined here) in the run game was 40.0% while State’s was just 23.3%. That, however, is a hollow victory, as Michigan State’s passing Success Rate was 38.1% to Michigan’s 25.0%.
Five Factors
Of the defensive five factors, Explosiveness, Efficiency, and Finishing Drives took a hit. Explosiveness suffered the most, with Michigan’s defense falling from first to 11th. Efficiency fell from fifth to sixth, while Finishing Drives saw Michigan’s points per trip inside the 40 rise from 2.71 (which was second nationally) to 3.25 (seventh nationally). So yes, the defensive stats took a bit of a hit, but no, it wasn’t extreme; Michigan’s still first overall in defensive S&P+.
The run defense held up well; they were ranked fourth a week ago and are still fourth after the MSU game. The pass defense is still great (11th overall), but they were first in Passing IsoPPP and State’s big plays pushed them down to eighth. If you’re thinking of the Lewis-Burbridge matchup and assuming Lewis lost bear in mind that PFF issued a positive grade for Lewis, who had six (!) PBUs and was in Burbridge’s face all day. PFF’s individual grades really, really liked the front seven, but Lewis still graded especially well considering the matchup. Also, letting a fullback rumble for a 70+ yard reception is bad.
Michigan’s run game had a difficult go against State’s defense, and that’s reflected in a decline in Rushing S&P+, including a sharp, almost 20-spot drop in Rushing IsoPPP. Michigan eked out a few yards here and there, but they couldn’t break anything big.
Michigan’s passing stats dropped a little; their Passing Success Rate is now 40.4%, which is exactly the national average. Overall, though, they’re ranked 44th and saw a 27-spot jump in Passing IsoPPP, which means they did get a lot more explosive when faced with MSU’s battered secondary. This may be one of the more disparate live-feel to postgame-look backs we’ve seen in a while; I had to check the stats packet, but four Michigan receivers had receptions of 20+ yards.
Pro Football Focus has made it a point to pin some blame on Jake Rudock, noting that he’s only graded positively in their system once this season. That seems a little harsh, but his stats aren’t exactly jumping off the page; five touchdowns, six interceptions, 61.7% completion rate, and a lackluster 6.0 yards per attempt. Michigan’s pass game is ranked a bit better than average per S&P+, which makes sense. Passes are getting completed, but what’s lost in there are the passes that go for nine yards and a first down when there’s another option open deep that’s a likely touchdown. No receiver with more than 10 targets is averaging more than 8.3 yards per target; Michigan’s top two receivers are averaging 7.6 (Darboh) and 6.1 (Chesson) yards per target. In a sense it’s nitpicking since 100% of that isn’t Rudock’s fault, but it’s still worth tracking the progress of the pass game weekly throughout the rest of the season.
Looking Forward, Looking Back:
Opponent | Off. S&P+ | Def. S&P+ | Overall S&P+ |
@ Utah | 36 (-13) | 19 (+5) | 18 (-5) |
Oregon State | 107 (-20) | 96 (-23) | 104 (-20) |
UNLV | 112 (-11) | 84 (-25) | 103 (-17) |
BYU | 46 (-10) | 49 (-16) | 51 (-19) |
@Maryland | 98 (-24) | 68 (-25) | 87 (-31) |
Northwestern | 114 (-21) | 6 (-2) | 54 (-42) |
Michigan State | 34 (+3) | 32 (+15) | 26 (+14) |
@ Minnesota | 96 (-11) | 28 (-17) | 60 (-25) |
Rutgers | 57 (+26) | 116 (-7) | 92 (+11) |
@ Indiana | 17 (-2) | 107 (-24) | 62 (-14) |
@ Penn State | 61 (+0) | 22 (-5) | 35 (-4) |
Ohio State | 16 (+26) | 14 (+12) | 5 (+23) |
Michigan | 50 (-4) | 1 (+0) | 2 (+1) |
It’s week seven, which means that all the preseason projection data has been tossed from FEI (that’s the Fremeau Efficiency Index, which you can learn more about here). Seems like a good time to start a table tracking that as well.
Opponent | Off.FEI | Def. FEI | Overall FEI (includes Special Teams FEI) |
@ Utah | 14 | 5 | 2 |
Oregon State | 108 | 83 | 114 |
UNLV | 112 | 108 | 100 |
BYU | 27 | 59 | 34 |
@Maryland | 100 | 74 | 98 |
Northwestern | 82 | 10 | 39 |
Michigan State | 13 | 27 | 14 |
@ Minnesota | 96 | 29 | 78 |
Rutgers | 39 | 109 | 66 |
@ Indiana | 41 | 80 | 47 |
@ Penn State | 80 | 19 | 56 |
Ohio State | 33 | 20 | 12 |
Michigan | 54 | 3 | 9 |
Michigan’s two losses are to teams in the FEI top 15. They don’t face another one until Ohio State comes to town. Things are still set up for Michigan to have a good year, as they should be when your program turns a corner and starts losing to not Maryland.
What about Saturday?
I do not have any numbers that reflect how efficiently you’ll study, how effectively you’ll handle the mall parking lot, how thoroughly you’ll dominate leaf cleanup, or how many times you’ll turnover the channel when flipping through games. Try me again after the Minnesota game.
October 22nd, 2015 at 9:31 AM ^
Everyone's been saying Rudock is who he is at this point, but really, do we know who he is? His main assets were consistency and accuracy and now his biggest problems are inconsistency and inaccuracy. I'm not a QB so I can't get in his head, but I was expecting stuff like hesitation and timing issues with a lot of checkdowns as he can't cram the complex Harbaughffense into his brain in a single offseason. But it seems he knows the plays OK and makes decent decisions but just can't execute.
What a strange sport.
October 22nd, 2015 at 10:38 AM ^
been consistency and accuracy. That always has been Iowa's fans biggest complaint. That and the fact he is not aggressive enough for their likings. Guess what? They're right. Iowa is currently undefeated with Beathard at QB in which they are pleased with his play. They felt that they wouldn't have won 2 games they needed to QB to make a few key throws if Rudock was the QB.
October 22nd, 2015 at 12:33 PM ^
Rudock is the best QB to play this season on the team. I hope he improves but there probably is a ceiling to his play. We'll just have to wait for Harbaugh to coach one of our younger QBs up in the next couple years.
October 22nd, 2015 at 12:46 PM ^
After 7 games (which I think is a fair number to evaluate by) this is my couch potato summary of Jake. He is a see and fire passer. His strength is his intelligence, but he is limited in the types of throws he can make. He does not have the true cannon for an arm but he also is not adept at putting loft on his passes. This shows up in three areas:
1) Deep throws - we all know this issue.
2) The second and third level throws which require getting it over an underneath defender but under a deep defender. He just doesn't throw these. This has been seen in the multiple roll-outs this year where there are three levels of targets, most often Jake goes to the underneath guy once the defender clears to rush him, meanwhile Butt and a WR are running deeper routes which some QB's would throw to, but Jake won't because there is a defender he has to get it over.
3) The screen pass which was batted down against MSU where Smith would have practically walked in untouched from 18 yards out. Had that pass simply been lofted over the line, it's a catch and run. Jake tries to fire it through at a short distance with traffic in-between and it gets batted down.
Even on Jake's longer passes this year, he has basically thrown it on a line with no defender underneath. Fish, Harbaugh & Drevno can only scheme so much to get completely open lanes to throw in. At some point as a QB you are going to have to fit it in a zone. That is not Jake's strength. Let's hope the coaching staff can keep finding those lanes for Jake.
October 22nd, 2015 at 1:25 PM ^
of Rudock. He is definitely, see it and fire it passer. You can see why Iowa fans are so frustrated with Rudock's play at QB in the last two years. He refused to pass intermediate to deep passes unless he's wide open. He is basically a captain checkdown.
I've re-watched the game and there are ton of open lanes to be had because MSU secondary is godawful with two freshmen starters at S and two meh CBs. They lost two starters so they went from meh to terrible.
Contrast to CJ Beathard who is more aggressive and is much more willing to take deep shots. Beathard has stronger arm and anticipate WRs route well. Is there a coincidence that Iowa is undefeated? Granted it's on a pretty soft schedule.
October 22nd, 2015 at 9:37 AM ^
Between me and my three brothers, I am the Michigan fan. One brother doesn't watch sports, and the other married into an Auburn family and became an Auburn fan. My poor Ohio State loving Dad...
October 22nd, 2015 at 9:38 AM ^
reminds me of a friend I had in high school (a long time ago).
October 22nd, 2015 at 9:41 AM ^
feeling something fall apart and fall apart in mere seconds."
Sadly, this is reminding me of my 20-year marriage right now.
October 22nd, 2015 at 9:59 AM ^
You want to talk about it? I give good advice.
October 22nd, 2015 at 10:11 AM ^
I am actually heading off right now to my first ever marriage counseling session - when I come back I'll hit you up for some of that advice!
October 22nd, 2015 at 10:36 AM ^
October 22nd, 2015 at 3:12 PM ^
That means a lot right now. Trying to hang in there! We're definitely being honest, and we'll see if it gets us anywhere.
October 22nd, 2015 at 10:44 AM ^
Well thats good! Hope that its helpful and you guys can get back on track. I'm going on 1.5 years of marriage right now. Everything is pretty solid so far besides the tree being a little more crowded, but she has her own branch and everything. Maybe you can give ME some advice too.
October 22nd, 2015 at 6:41 PM ^
October 22nd, 2015 at 9:52 AM ^
stand.
I need more stats.
October 22nd, 2015 at 11:13 AM ^
Connor Cook is going to the NFL, Jake Rudock is going to medical school.
October 22nd, 2015 at 12:34 PM ^
I didn't want to wait for a decline to beat Sparty. I wanted Michigan to beat their best. I was rather annoyed that Harbaugh faced a depleted roster (just selfish thoughts I know), but even with Cook & Burbridge the game would've been well under control if the zebras didn't take over.
October 22nd, 2015 at 4:46 PM ^
Is your avatar Bubby Brister from Tecmo Super Bowl??
October 23rd, 2015 at 10:39 AM ^
It may be the same image (TSB recycled their profile pics) but it's another starting QB. You get one more guess, and if you're a Michigan fan at all, for the love of god please get it right.
October 23rd, 2015 at 4:05 PM ^
Don't recall Harbaugh having a Billy Ray Cyrus mullet back then, but still the best video game ever.
October 22nd, 2015 at 11:47 AM ^
You can talk about stats all you want, but the fact is the big difference was the fact that one of the best punters in the country simply dropped the snap. No if's, and's, or but's about it, if he doesn't drop the snap Michigan wins. I'm not faulting him for the loss, it was just a mistake that happened to have the outcome of the game on the line. Without him this season who knows where the team would be at this point. I'm banking on MSU losing to OSU, Michigan beating OSU, and then advancing to the BIG Championship game based on the overall rankings. That would be some poetic justice if I'v ever seen it.
October 22nd, 2015 at 1:15 PM ^
October 22nd, 2015 at 5:56 PM ^
we had opportunities to put the game away earlier and did not capitalize on them. If Rudock had hit Chesson on the deep ball earlier in the fourth quarter State never would have won even with another touchdown. Also, as my dad said to me before the worst punt ever, we needed one more first down to run out the clock and THAT would never have happened in the first place. If we can't pick up one first down in that situation we don't really deserve to win against a top team. It's unfortunate that Blake will always be remembered for that instead of the 80 yard bomb and the perfect pin punts inside the 10 yard line.
October 23rd, 2015 at 3:44 PM ^
Considering we couldnt run against them all game I don't know why you would expect us to be able to run three times when they know we're goign to run and pick up 10 yards, I was impressed we got as close to ten as we did. And obviously passing isa horribl idea because one incomplete pass and they have 50 seconds to drive for a field goal.
Comments