100% worst thing ever

Bummer. (David Nasternak's Phone)

CLICK HERE for Game Recap from Kristy McNeil and other pertinent information.

What just happened (TL;DR): Michigan turned in another stinker performance in a national semifinal. While they did generate some chances in the last couple of periods, they just gave away chances in transition like no other. Unfortunately, Erik Portillo’s (probable) last game in the Michigan crease was probably his worst. He got banked twice and flat out missed a harmless shot from the boards. Quinnipiac played much steadier and and stronger in their zone, waiting for Wolverine mistakes. This year, they came in torrents and the Bobcats pounced and feasted.

FINAL CORSI NUMBERS (www.collegehockeynews.com)

 

Total Attempts

Even Strength

Power Play

Close (within 1)

Even Strength %

Quinnipiac

57

50

7

37

45%

Michigan

74

62

12

37

55%

Forward Notes.

-Quinnipiac got the game style and scoring sequence that they wanted in the first two periods. They all but erased Michigan’s offense from their forward lines. The bottom three lines for Michigan mostly went unnoticed as they collectively managed just five shots on net all evening. Depth scoring has been something that the Wolverines got for enough of the year, but they struggled just to get a puck on Yaniv Perets all night. Eric Ciccolini did ring the iron in the third period, probably Michigan’s best chance in the final stanza.

-After having a rough first period, the top line did kick it into gear and generated plenty of chances in the second (not quite as many in the third). Adam Fantilli scored a typical blast from the dot in the second period to tie it after Luke Hughes teed him up nicely. Rutger McGroarty and Gavin Brindley both had great chances to get on the board all night. This was not a vintage Michigan offensive night –thanks mostly to suffocating Bobcat defense, but the top line did a lot. Hopefully, it’s not the last time we see them together.

-There’s really not a whole lot that’s been left unsaid. Look, Adam Fantilli is the best player I’ve seen at Michigan. Kyle Connor was great, but Adam is at a different level. He also has that MacKinnon fire and competitiveness. He scored and somehow his the underside of the bar without scoring. He creates, he muscles, he dishes…he backchecks. He stayed in the middle of the ice looking around and waving to the fans after the game. That doesn’t mean it’s a done deal that he’s leaving…but it easily could be, too. I wouldn’t blame him. Either way, Adam, (if you’re reading this), it’s been amazing watching you all year. I’ll be hard pressed to not get your jersey when you’re tearing up the NHL.

Defense Notes.

-WOOF. The in-zone defense wasn’t the worst it’s been all season, but it was inconsistent, especially early. They did settle down a bit as the game progressed. The transition tracking was pretty horrendous, though. That will be discussed later.

-Unfortunately for Luke Hughes, his last game in Maize and Blue will be a haunting one. He’s been tremendous and other-worldly many times in his career. On Thursday night in Tampa, though…it was rough. Not only did he turn the puck over too many times, he also got toasted on the Jacob Quillan breakaway goal. Just afterwards, he left a QCat alone at the top of the crease for an easy deflection that ultimately went high. Now, ESPN reported that he was regurgitating consumables into a trash can behind the bench…so that could easily have had some impact, ha. Luke did make an awesome dish for Adam Fantilli for his game-tying blast from the dot. Luke has been quite the interesting case in his career. Many highs and lows. It’s unfortunate for it to end like this.

-On a much more positive note, Seamus Casey was the best non-Adam Fantilli player on the ice for Michigan. His Makar-esque goal in the first period, dancing through basically every yellow sweater before slipping the puck around Perets temporarily tied the game. He also shook another Bobcat and drew a penalty, getting into the slot. Casey also used his body well to keep the puck in the zone and not be out-muscled by a larger opposing forward. That is a really good sign. The shakes and dekes are expected…adding some body positioning to win a physical battle at the blue line is +++.  He could have been at fault for OMRs, but I didn’t see any specifically…but on a night when there were like a million, everyone probably was at one point

A sight to behold (Bill Rapai)

CLICK HERE for Game Recap from Kristy McNeil and other pertinent information and HERE for current Pairwise Rankings.

 

What just happened (TL;DR): Penn State controlled the puck and took twice as many shots as did Michigan. The Wolverines finished over twice as many shots as the Lions did, though. Penn State did get into the House, but Erik Portillo outplayed Liam Souliere before Souliere was chased, going down 4-1. The game never got too tight and the Wolverines added two empty netters and another goal after that. Xander Lamppa scored all three goals for the Ice Lions giving him a hat trick and doubling his goal count for the season.

FINAL CORSI NUMBERS (www.collegehockeynews.com)

 

Total Attempts

Even Strength

Power Play

Close (within 1)

Even Strength %

Penn State

109

94

15

17

67%

Michigan

50

46

4

3

33%

Forward Notes.

-Adam Fantilli showed why he’s almost always the best player on the ice, collecting four points (five if you count the assist on the second Lamppa goal, ha) after his empty-netter. He buried a chance on the power play, forced the DZTO that lead to Philippe Lapointe’s third tally of the year, and slammed home an empty-netter to unofficially end the game. That doesn’t even take into account the goal that he had taken away early in the second period (a bad call by the way). After his empty-netter, Fantilli pointed rather emphatically at the net saying “This one is going to count!”

-Jackson Hallum found the net after a fortunate deflection. Rutger McGroarty also sniped his tenth goal of the year on a wide open look in the slot. Philippe Lapointe also scored a similar goal from Fantilli. Michigan got scoring from their prized star AND plenty of depth scoring. This is the weekend for it against a highly-rated Penn State team and not the brightest outlook for Mackie Samoskevich…at least for this weekend.

 

Seamus Casey is a Dude (David Wilcomes)

Defense Notes.

-Seamus Casey put on a show on Friday night, showing why he might just have the highest ceiling of any defenseman on the ice. While he got a bit fortunate on his first assist that Jackson Hallum finished, his second was one of the plays of the year. He stickhandled through multiple Lions as he skated down the wing and dished to an open Rutger McGroarty blazing down the slot. Casey also created 2-3 more really good looks that could have been goals. He’s really fun to watch.

-Brendan Miles dressed for his first action of his career and looked…good? He didn’t do anything that will make the SC Top Ten, but he made smart plays and was not noticeable for anything negative. He did get stuck out there for a Forever Shift in the third, but that wasn’t all on him by any means. Luca Fantilli also got his first goal as a Wolverine, catching a puck on his backhand, switching to his forehand and beating Noah Grannan with a nice shot.

 

same [Paul Sherman]

I am ready to call it: the tourney streak is over. Michigan is currently the 25th team out on Torvik, currently estimated to have an 0.1% chance of receiving an at-large bid. They've got about an 8% chance to sneak in by winning the Big Ten tournament, largely because the league is very very bad this year.

This is quite a fall for a team that is coming off four consecutive Sweet 16s and was a one seed two years ago. How did we get here? Let's assess.

The Number One Recruiting Class In The Country was fool's gold. Michigan's heralded recruiting class of 2021 has one player in a meaningful role: Kobe Bufkin.

The two five-stars were essentially busts as college players. Caleb Houstan was a mediocre, streaky, defensively-meh wing who contributed nothing when his shot wasn't falling—which it almost never was outside of Crisler. Moussa Diabate was less frustrating but was a 20% usage guy who had middling efficiency. He had a lot of promise as a defender, but offset that promise with a lot of freshman mistakes. Both guys left to be second-round picks and are currently buried on NBA benches, so Michigan ended up playing a couple of middling players for heavy minutes—Houstan especially was inexplicably un-benchable—and those growing pains are benefiting this team in no way whatsoever. You can argue that having Houstan and Diabate around last year is worse for this year's team because other players would have more on-court experience.

Meanwhile, Frankie Collins transferred away from a near-certain starting job after Michigan added Jalen Llewellyn in the transfer portal. Collins is not exactly good at Arizona State. He's shooting 40% from two and his TO rate is over 20. But he's improved his shooting, adding 20 points to his FT% and hitting 33% of his threes; he's also got a massive assist rate that's 24th nationally. He's ASU's highest-usage player; his ORTG of 100 is bad… but it's 10 points higher than Dug McDaniel.

The other two players, Isaiah Barnes and Will Tschetter, were always long-term projects. In year two it appears neither is ready to take on a significant role. They're both averaging 4 minutes a game. This in and of itself isn't a big problem except for the fact that the aforementioned three players are not here.

If there's a lesson to be learned here it's that certain five stars aren't worth it. You have a guy headed for the lottery? Ok, get him. One-and-done second rounders are not worth bothering with. Also, try to avoid players who have not spent more than one consecutive year anywhere since middle school. 

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[Campredon]

Bufkin is good, and it's probably not a coincidence he's in the recruiting sweet spot that hits around #50. He was the #46 composite prospect, which is out of the range that the NBA is going to take you even if you're not any good yet because there are only so many people with NBA-capable bodies in the world. It is in the range where you can expect to at least get the "hey, NBA, check it out" year from a player.

[After THE JUMP: more bad things! No good things!]

Had to talk about Mazi so.

Fire me? I fire you.

When you don't have tons of chances, sometimes one mistake is too many.

Goalie'd? Yeah, but plenty of Wolverines giveaways to complain too much. Enough stuff to fix.

it's real bad!

time to burn all our content from last week

not like this. not again.

in the face, again

dangit, poser

have we hit rock bottom?