2019-20 presbyterian
hoops game recaps
eli brooks
isaiah livers
zavier simpson
adrien nunez
cole bajema
jon teske
a telltale sign of a blowout [Alexis Rankin]

Michigan 86, Presbyterian 44 Comment Count

Ace December 21st, 2019 at 2:24 PM

In a game that saw Michigan tripling its opponent's point total for most of the first half and doubling them up until the final possessions, the most notable event occurred only seven minutes into the game. Isaiah Livers, Michigan's leading scorer, strained a muscle in what appeared to be his groin area while getting fouled on an awkward-looking dunk attempt.

Although Livers stayed in to make the free throws, he exited to the locker room afterwards and was quickly ruled out of the game. Juwan Howard couldn't provide an update immediately after the game:

Thankfully, the Wolverines don't play again for another eight days, and they don't face a difficult opponent until January 5th when they restart conference play at Michigan State. So long as the Livers injury is minor, it shouldn't have a significant impact on the season.

David DeJulius provided instant offense off the bench again [Rankin]

It certainly didn't have much impact on this game, as Presbyterian spent most of the afternoon struggling to nudge their made field goal total (17, with a late flurry) over their turnover total (13). Michigan, on the other hand, had 11 different players score points, led by Eli Brooks with 16 and Jon Teske with 15. David DeJulius needed only eight shots to score his 12, while Zavier Simpson controlled play with nine points and nine assists.

The loss of Livers, Brandon Johns's absence due to an illness—he was on the bench in street clothes, so it doesn't seem to be too bad—and the overmatched opponent opened up opportunities for some other wings to get more time than usual. Franz Wagner (3 points, 1/3 FG) had a quiet day. Adrien Nunez had five points on 2/4 shooting before fouling out in 13 minutes, while freshman Cole Bajema looked quite comfortable putting in nine points on five shot equivalents.

Michigan will get a nice holiday break before hosting UMass-Lowell on the 29th. Hopefully Livers is good to go by then, or at least close.

[Hit THE JUMP for the box score.]

Comments

Larry Appleton

December 21st, 2019 at 2:30 PM ^

I loathe these games.  When they’re blowing them out, I can only think “Why do we even schedule these?”  When they’re not blowing them out, I can only think “Why aren’t we blowing them out?”

Joined: 05/15/2014

MGoPoints: 17216

J.

December 21st, 2019 at 9:32 PM ^

Shot equivalents = shot attempts, plus one for every sequence of free throw attempts that’s not the result of an and-1.  So, if somebody’s driving the lane and gets a shooting foul, the free throws count as a “shot equivalent.”

One point per shot equivalent isn’t particularly efficient.  DeJulius’s 1.5 is very efficient: he finished with an ORtg of 167 (five players on the court, all of whom had DeJulius’s stat line from this game, would produce about 167 points in 100 possessions).

In this case, he didn’t have any free throw attempts, so shots = shot equivalents.  However, there’s a big difference between 12 points on 4/8 shooting (4/7 from 3) and 12 points on 4/8 shooting (4/7 from 2, 0/1 from 3, and 4/10 from the free throw line).

Joined: 03/11/2012

MGoPoints: 13057

SeattleWolverine

December 22nd, 2019 at 11:39 AM ^

There's not a simple answer to that one. Generally, usage = % of possessions used divided by the number of possessions a player is on the court. Basically, it the % of possessions where you're the last player on your team to touch the ball via a make, miss, or turnover. Since 5 guys on the court at a time, obviously 20% would be the mean. Around 30% means you're heavily involved in creating offense, think Cassius Winston or Garza or Manny Harris or Trey Burke.

Where it gets messy though is how much credit does Z get for a pick and roll assist where he hits Teske for a dunk? Depends on the source (Dean Oliver, Torvik, Kenpom, BBR, etc) and the formula used as it's not standardized. Also, because misses that lead to an OR (Kobe Assists) don't end a possession those are treated differently under these systems as well. There is no universally accepted formula on this metric.

Usage is extremely important context for judging efficiency because it's vastly harder to be efficient player at 28% than at 16%. So Livers for example is efficient but fairly modest usage because his strength is catch and shoot but his shot creation is somewhat limited. Whereas like a 2013 Trey Burke had 29% usage but a similar level of efficiency which is extremely tough to do. Obviously it's much harder to remain efficient when your usage increases because the % of shots you'll get from ball movement, fast breaks, open 3s etc tends to remain fairly static which means that you have to generate additional high quality shots on your own to maintain efficiency at higher usage. 

 

Joined: 11/07/2012

MGoPoints: 4047

J.

December 22nd, 2019 at 3:12 PM ^

Yeah, I’m having a hard time reverse-engineering KenPom’s numbers.  If I multiply everyone’s minutes times their usage, and add them up, I get about 97%, which actually sounds about right: it’s easily possible that 3% of the possessions in an average game — i.e., 1-2 — have been team turnovers (mostly shot clock violations) or not resulted in an ending (e.g., dribbling out the clock).  However, in any individual box score, I can’t make the numbers make sense.  Perhaps the season-long values are estimates based upon minutes, but the box score numbers specifically count the possessions when the player is on the court.

Either way, assists don’t appear to be credited at all in KenPom’s system, which isn’t what I expected.

Joined: 03/11/2012

MGoPoints: 13057

Alumnus93

December 21st, 2019 at 3:15 PM ^

If there was ever a time so have Nunez get more minutes, was this game, and he only got five.. I don't understand this... if he is in the group to first come off the bench, then why did he only get five minutes vs the others?  We will need his shooting later and need him to get comfortable.

***EDIT***   I misread it, and he actually got 13 minutes and fouled out.... I DVRed it and fast forwarded it alot and didn't realize it....my bad. ******

I found myself watching Davis the entire time he was in, and I like the way he plays, and wish they played him over Castleton vs  Cockburn and Illinois....  Davis is a big dude and can handle the stronger players, and want to see more minutes there.

Joined: 09/10/2009

MGoPoints: 9684

SeattleWolverine

December 22nd, 2019 at 11:50 AM ^

Yeah, aside from the fact he can't defend, he has all of 1 assist and still does not have a single rebound! That's in 97 minutes, so basically 3 games worth of minutes for a starter type player and those are primarily against the worst teams too. Plus he's shooting 27% from 3. Really don't see how you can play him once the B1G starts again, barring injury. Bajema has to get those spot minutes. 

Joined: 11/07/2012

MGoPoints: 4047

Gulo Gulo Luscus

December 21st, 2019 at 3:19 PM ^

Had a rebounding Rutger (more rebounds than opponent points) going prior to that last bucket from PC. 

Bajema looked a lot more confident than Nunez out there. Gotta think he earned some minutes vs. UM-Lowell, possibly an extended look if Livers is out.

Joined: 12/18/2009

MGoPoints: 3909

Blueroller

December 21st, 2019 at 3:59 PM ^

My niece is visiting and I told her that during many Michigan games I get very vocal, but the only loud sound I would emit during this game would be a howl if a Michigan player got injured. Not even five minutes in and she heard the howl. I hope Livers is okay.

Joined: 06/08/2010

MGoPoints: 1670

shoes

December 21st, 2019 at 5:05 PM ^

Nunez has at least the potential to be some instant offense off the bench (though he hasn't shown it so far), but his defense is truly brutal.

Joined: 07/01/2008

MGoPoints: 9530

cheesheadwolverine

December 21st, 2019 at 6:12 PM ^

We used to complain about these types of games for being a self-imposed RPI anchor.  I know they have replaced RPI with something slightly less bad, but is this kind of thing still hurt us on whatever the new metric in a way that playing Dartmouth or Bowling Green or some other 99% win probability team that's 150 spots higher in the rankings would not be?

Joined: 10/25/2008

MGoPoints: 7515