Fall camp has started, which means we’re in that phase of the offseason. 

Joe Milton is fixing his accuracy issues!
Donovan Jeter is MAULING offensive linemen!
Mike Sainristil is like Rondale Moore 2.0! 

Hype is a natural part of any football program. Journalists and fans want to know how the team is performing; coaches don’t want to tell them. Still, it’s in the best interest of the program for everyone to think the team will do well, but also for nobody to know why that is. 

Enter hype season. It’s a period where tiny tidbits of information — almost all of them positive, thanks to the carefully vetted communication coming from the program — are extrapolated into season-altering storylines. Reports of a well-liked assistant turn into sure signs of an offensive transformation; rumors of minor bumps and bruises are morphed into melodramatic claims of catastrophic injuries; and, perhaps most frequently, passing remarks by coaches of a player doing well in practice are interpreted as signs of an impending Breakout Season™. 

It’s only natural that sports fans latch onto the idea of a breakout season. It’s a quick fix to all that ails our teams, an assurance that, even though they don’t have the personnel, it doesn’t matter, because the existing personnel will just be suddenly and inexplicably better. Reports of potential breakout seasons are exaggerated every year (I think Donovan Jeter is coming up on his third straight?), but they still do happen on occasion, so let’s consider the odds and implications of Michigan having a few. Beyond the established players in each position group, who is most likely to have a breakout season? Why? What would that look like? How would it impact the team? 

Let’s look at some of the key position groups and see where there’s potential for a breakout. 

Linebacker

Quick note: For reasons far too complicated for me to go into/understand, positions on defense seem to be getting more complex with classification every year. For simplicity, I’m counting edge guys like Aidan Hutchinson as defensive linemen, not linebackers. Please tell me why I’m wrong in the comments. 

Michigan’s depth chart at linebacker features Josh Ross, Michael Barrett, and a shrug emoji with shoulder pads. I expect that Ross and Barrett will both be fairly strong this season, but the lack of depth behind them means the Wolverines really need someone to surprise us in 2021. It also creates a situation where a freshman could earn some serious playing time, and as such … 

[After THE JUMP: What's a breakout?]

Top Candidate: Junior Colson

Seth already went into what’s exciting about Junior Colson and why you’ll probably fall in love with him earlier this week, so read that if you want a more in-depth look at his abilities and his story. The tl;dr: he’s strong, he moves like a defensive back, and he’s somehow always around the football. That’s pretty much everything you could possibly want to hear about a young linebacker. 

What it looks like/what it means if he breaks out: Effectively, he rotates in as the third ILB and isn’t immediately exposed. No matter how well Colson plays, Barrett and Ross will still get most of the snaps because, well, they’ll be better. I wouldn’t be surprised if Colson gets in on passing downs to help cover the running back, nor would I be shocked to see one or two interceptions. 

For the team, having a reliable third option at ILB would be huge in that it would allow Ross or Barrett to take a breather without the defense falling apart. And, of course, a breakout for Colson in his freshman season would be even bigger for the program long term, as that would secure the future of the position for a long time to come. 

Trending: N/A; he’s a freshman. 

What if he doesn’t: I mean, there’s obviously no reason to panic if a freshman doesn’t end up being a great rotational linebacker, but that would leave the immediate situation behind Ross and Barrett looking pretty grim. The defense in a transitional year is going to feature some pretty serious growing pains; more likely than not, depth at linebacker will be one of them. 

Other candidates: Nikhai Hill-Green. A physical linebacker, but still quick enough for Don Brown to have taken notice. He probably still needs another year or so of development, but if injuries or other situations throw him into the fire early, maybe his physicality could be enough.

Safeties

The top two spots here are completely secure with Daxton Hill at free safety and Brad Hawkins at strong safety, but don’t think that means there’s no opportunity for breakouts. There’s a wealth of young talent behind that top two, and with a little reconfiguring, plenty of opportunity for those players to show out. 

Top Candidate: Makari Paige

Reunited with his former high school coach in Ron Bellamy, you’d have to imagine Paige — a 6-foot-3 former 4-star — is going to get some opportunities in his true sophomore season. Interestingly, one word seems to stand out in past looks at his abilities: boring. He’s tall (obviously) and athletic, but not super athletic. If he’s able to stick to his assignments and doesn’t get lost in Mike Macdonald’s system, he should have no problem keeping up with receivers over the top and swatting deep balls. At the same time, pure deep safeties aren’t as valuable in modern college football as they used to be; crossing routes near the line of scrimmage are becoming more common and threatening every year. 

What it looks like/what it means if he breaks out: Both the 247 gurus and Brian list Jarrod Wilson as Paige’s comparison, and I’ll concur on that. Like I said above: fairly boring but effective safety, plays deep because he’s tall, knocks down deep passes, rinse, repeat.

The greater impact of Paige breaking out would be that it frees up Dax Hill to play more toward the line of scrimmage, where his athleticism can be better employed. Especially with the aforementioned shaky linebacker corps, that could make a huge difference in the run defense. 

Trending: On pace with projections. Generally, Paige was expected to see some time on special teams and in dime packages in his freshman season, and that’s exactly what he did. This year, it would be reasonable to expect more of the same, but some experience as a deep safety would definitely be a huge plus development wise. 

What if he doesn’t: He plays a similar dimeback role as last year. Again, that’s not necessarily a problem, but it means that Hill is stuck defending deep balls again and can’t provide as much help in the run game.  

Other candidates: R.J. Moten. Although it’s hard to see him passing Paige since he appeared in only one game on special teams in 2020, he has some special raw athletic talent. There’s lots of variance in where he could end up; if he irons out the technique issues that scouts worried about before, that athleticism could carry him pretty far. 

Cornerback

The starters on the outside will be Vincent Gray and Gemon Green again. I assume they’ll be at least somewhat better than last year, but I don’t know anything beyond that. The opportunities for someone new to emerge will likely exist at nickel. 

Top Candidate: D.J. Turner

None of the candidates for nickel starter have seen any significant playing time yet, so this one’s mostly a shot in the dark. I’ll give him the edge over Darion Green-Warren because of the extra year in the program (junior vs sophomore) and over German Green for the opposite reason (if three shots at a starting job wasn’t enough, I’m not sure fourth time’s the charm). 

What it looks like/what it means if he breaks out: Don Brown recruited Turner as a physical press coverage guy, so I assume a breakout season would involve him doing well in press coverage. He doesn’t have to be Charles Woodson, he would just need to be consistent enough and not get beat badly over the top. 

If he does play well, I’d be more curious to see how that impacts the overall coverage schemes. Much ado has been made about how Michigan is moving away from press coverage, but if Turner pops off as a remnant of the old system, that could result in Macdonald and Clinkscale adopting a more multiple approach in 2021 at least. For what it’s worth, I think an overcommitment to zone would be just as big a mistake as Brown’s overcommitment to man. 

Trending: Roughly on track with projections, maybe slightly below. Turner had the potential to win the nickel corner spot after Ambry’s departure last season, but he came up short. I don’t think it’s too much of a knock on anybody to not earn a starting role in their sophomore season, but youth stops being an excuse by their third season. 

What if he doesn’t: For Turner personally, it probably just means he struggled to grasp the zone concepts and fell behind as a result. At that point, a move to safety could be the best thing for his career. For the rest of the team, then, if one of the more specialized man-to-man guys can’t break out, that likely reaffirms and accelerates the transition to other coverages on defense. And, although younger, there are plenty of other possible breakout candidates: 

Other candidates: Andre Seldon is undersized at 5-foot-8, but can still guard the slot because of elite athletic ability. Was also recruited by Clinkscale at Kentucky, so there’s a relationship there. Darion Green-Warren was a consensus 4-star and Oklahoma decommit out of high school, with solid technique and consistency. Similar to Turner, he loves to run in press coverage, though he faces questions about his athleticism. Ja'Den McBurrows is a shot at Jourdan Lewis/Lavert Hill insta-cat: McBurrows played near-FBS quality competition in high school and was already listed at 197 on the roster. He's the only non-5'8" guy who gets talked about for speed.

Tomorrow: defensive line, offensive line, receivers, and a little on the running backs.